1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Palm Oil - Affected by a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, palm oil futures prices will continue to trade in a range. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are consolidating, with short - term prices holding above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the moving average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can hold above 4,000 ringgit [1]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to the movements of related varieties. Although the purchase of US soybeans by Cofco this week boosted CBOT soybean prices, global soybean supply remains ample, keeping CBOT soybeans under pressure. In the domestic market, the pre - Spring Festival stocking period and reduced soybean imports are positive factors, but CBOT soybeans may still correct after a short - term rebound, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces resistance around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - With limited available domestic rapeseed oil in the spot market, the market is closely watching whether COFCO will start operations on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the downside for rapeseed oil in the short term is limited, and the overall trend will be a wide - range shock adjustment [1]. 2.4 Red Dates - Downstream demand is on a need - to - buy basis, with more buyers inspecting goods, but there is no significant improvement in trading volume. Spot prices are weakly stable. Driven by positive sentiment in the commodity market, futures prices rebounded, and the basis narrowed. The generation of new - season warehouse receipts is accelerating. The pre - Spring Festival stocking and actual inventory - reduction progress should be monitored. In the short term, there is no obvious fundamental driver, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. 2.5 Corn - In the northeast, corn trading is average, and prices are stable, while in the north port, prices declined slightly due to increased arrivals. In the north China region, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants is low. However, due to profit losses, plants are not willing to raise prices, so prices are generally stable. On the demand side, low inventory at the north port supports prices, but deep - processing plants' profit losses limit their acceptance of high - priced corn, and feed companies have sufficient inventory. Policy - wise, the targeted auction of imported corn and the start of competitive sales supplement market supply but have limited short - term impact. In the short term, the reluctance to sell and downstream restocking support the futures market, but selling pressure and policy - driven supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. 2.6 Sugar - As the Brazilian sugarcane crushing season nears its end, its influence on the raw sugar market is diminishing. The market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere's sugarcane production. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is increasing, while Thailand's production is still down year - on - year. In the short term, prices are expected to trade in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, pre - Spring Festival stocking has boosted sales, and December's Guangxi production and sales data met expectations. However, as it is the peak of the sugar - making season, market participants are cautious, and price increases face resistance. Sugar prices are expected to remain in a low - level range - bound pattern [8][9]. 2.7 Apples - With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the trading atmosphere in the apple market has warmed up, and the number of trucks arriving at wholesale markets has increased. High - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption, and competition from other fruits (such as citrus) has put pressure on ordinary apples' inventory. Futures prices have rebounded, and delivery profits have improved. Attention should be paid to inventory - reduction progress [13]. 2.8 Cotton - ICE cotton futures declined due to falling crude oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US cotton - growing areas, rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, and an increasing drought index are in line with the winter La Nina weather pattern. USDA export sales have returned to normal levels, and shipments have slowed. In the domestic market, processing enterprises are holding firm on prices, and the basis is strong. The core drivers are the expected reduction in cotton planting in Xinjiang and downstream restocking, but low - cost foreign cotton and the off - season demand limit price increases. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to remain bullish, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. 2.9 Eggs - Based on previous chick sales data, the number of laying hens entering the laying period in January is expected to be lower than the number of old hens leaving the flock, potentially reducing the laying - hen inventory and easing supply pressure. After continuous price increases, the downstream market is resistant to high - priced eggs, and all sectors are actively selling. Egg prices in the production areas are mixed. Market circulation is smooth, and inventory levels are low. As the traditional consumption peak approaches, downstream stocking demand is rising, but due to relatively ample supply, the main contract is expected to trade in a low - level range [18]. 2.10 Pigs - Spot pig prices have returned to a range - bound pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. In the north, pig sales have decreased, but high prices have dampened slaughterhouses' purchasing enthusiasm. In the south, demand has dropped sharply, providing little support for prices. Some second - fattening operations are still buying, but overall enthusiasm is low due to high current prices and weak future expectations. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but pigs are expected to be sold in mid - to - late January, and the overall supply in January is expected to be ample. Futures prices were previously strong due to market sentiment, but the upside is limited, and there will be pressure later [19]. 2.11 Meal - Affected by funds and sentiment, US soybean prices are strong, but the global supply - demand situation remains loose, and the expected high - yield in South America continues to suppress prices. The market is waiting for the USDA supply - demand report next Monday for new trading guidance. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal remains ample, but the expected future tightness supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The expected low arrivals in the first quarter are uncertain due to auctions and arrival schedules. The downside for soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy. In the short term, with positive macro sentiment, the futures market will be range - bound and bullish [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data 3.1.1 Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (Y2605) was 7,958 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day, and the basis was 502 yuan, down 8.39% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (P2605) was 8,562 yuan, up 0.73%, and the basis was 8 yuan, down 88.57%. The import cost at Guangzhou Port for May was 8,930 yuan, down 0.18%, and the import profit was - 368 yuan, up 17.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (OI605) was 9,130 yuan, down 0.38%, and the basis was 802 yuan, up 4.55% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread for the three oils was 150 yuan, up 8.70%; for palm oil, it was 110 yuan, down 6.78%; for rapeseed oil, it was 14 yuan, down 73.08%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 110 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 2.72%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1,440 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 6.65% [1]. 3.1.2 Red Dates - On January 8, the price of the main contract (2605) was 9,150 yuan/ton, up 1.95%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, up 35.71%, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 180 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The basis for Cangzhou's top - grade red dates was - 75 yuan/ton, up 60%. The total number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,008, up 1.72% [2]. 3.1.3 Corn - The price of the March 2026 corn contract (2603) was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 1.17%. The basis was 72 yuan, down 30.10%. The 3 - 7 spread was - 36 yuan, up 21.74%. The north - south trading profit was - 21 yuan, down 31.25%, and the import profit was 267 yuan, up 3.71% [5]. 3.1.4 Sugar - The May 2026 sugar futures price (2605) was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 12 yuan, up 25%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the basis was 69 yuan, down 14.81%. Nationwide, the cumulative sugar production was 105 million tons, down 23.24%, and the cumulative sales were 35 million tons, down 42.53% [8]. 3.1.5 Apples - The price of the main contract (2605) was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The 5 - 10 spread was 1,109 yuan, up 2.40%. The basis was - 1,383 yuan, up 2.19%. The total number of trucks arriving at three major fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 million tons, down 1.41% [10]. 3.1.6 Cotton - The May 2026 cotton futures price (2605) was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 190 yuan, down 2.70%. The Xinjiang ex - factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,574 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The commercial inventory was 534.9 million tons, up 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 million tons, up 4.7% [16]. 3.1.7 Eggs - The March 2026 egg futures price (03) was 3,011 yuan/500 kg, up 0.37%. The basis was 86 yuan/500 kg, up 69.26%. The 3 - 4 spread was - 253 yuan, down 1.20%. The price of egg - laying chicks was 2.8 yuan per chick, unchanged, and the price of culled hens was 3.95 yuan per catty, up 2.07% [18]. 3.1.8 Pigs - The price of the May 2026 pig futures contract (2605) was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The basis of the main contract was 1,215 yuan, up 6.58%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 475 yuan, down 6.74%. The spot price in Henan was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The self - breeding profit per pig was - 35 yuan, up 73.41%, and the number of fertile sows was 3,990 million heads, down 1.12% [19]. 3.1.9 Meal - For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3,120 yuan, up 0.65%. The May 2026 futures price (M2605) was 2,811 yuan, up 1.26%, and the basis was 300 yuan, down 4.63%. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans for February shipment was 157 yuan, up 45.4%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 2.05%, and the May 2026 futures price (RM2605) was 2,419 yuan, up 1.21% [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The palm oil data in Southeast Asia has been gradually released, showing that the palm oil production in Southeast Asia in 2025 remained at a relatively high level, which met market expectations, and the market fluctuated [3] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,562 yuan/ton, a change of +62 yuan or +0.73% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract yesterday was 7,958 yuan/ton, a change of +46 yuan or +0.58% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9,095 yuan/ton, a change of -35 yuan or -0.38% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,500 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was P05 - 62 yuan, a change of -62 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,330 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.24%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 372 yuan, a change of -26 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, a change of -30 yuan or -0.30%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 755 yuan, a change of +5 yuan [1] Market News Palm Oil Production Forecast - Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 19.6 million tons, 2.1% higher than the previous forecast, with a forecast range of 19.1 - 20.1 million tons. The annual palm oil production in 2025 is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time [2] - Thailand's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 3.82 million tons, with a forecast range of 3.32 - 4.32 million tons. The production in November dropped to 267,000 tons, a 15.1% decline from the previous month, and the cumulative production from January to November was 3.62 million tons, a 15.3% increase year - on - year [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to remain at 51.2 million tons, the same as the previous update [2] Market Conditions - As of the mid - day break, the March palm oil futures on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMD) rose 0.4% to 4,004 ringgit/ton, and once rose 0.9% to 4,024 ringgit/ton during the session. CBOT March soybean oil rose 0.2% to 49.51 cents/pound. The palm oil 2605 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.2% to 8,518 yuan/ton, and the May soybean oil rose 0.4% to 7,942 yuan/ton [2] - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 5 increased by 31% month - on - month. The December inventory may have climbed for the 10th consecutive month, reaching a 7 - year high of 2.99 million tons [2] Outlook - Despite the surge in exports at the beginning of January and the expected significant decline in production, with the inventory approaching 3 million tons and weak demand, palm oil is difficult to recover significantly. The expected strengthening of the ringgit in the middle of the year and the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans are negative factors for palm oil demand [2]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯豆油市场分析师杨光红 2025年四季度后的主产区棕榈油步入减产季，但根据马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB月度供需数据显示，实际 产量及期末库存变化不及预期，预期差不断落空，导致马棕期价不断趋弱，进而利空2025年底前的国内 棕榈油行情不断下行。 根据马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）11月（12月尚未发布）主要供需数据显示，11月马来西亚产量为 193.55万吨，环比下滑5.30%，出口量为121.28万吨，环比缩减28.13%，月末库存增至283.54万吨，环比 增加13.04%。马棕产量虽有缩减，但实际减产幅度有限，且因印尼出口增长，导致马来出口需求明显 萎缩，进而令11月末的马来西亚棕榈油库存累积至近五年来峰值。随后的棕榈油市场因缺乏印尼或美国 生柴政策进一步推进的利多指引，持续交易马来方面的供应压力，行情弱势难改。 豆油市场看，随着南美大豆供应近尾，且中美贸易不明朗的背景下，2025年底的原料大豆供应季节性缩 减，压榨企业开工负荷率小幅下滑，豆油产出有所缩减，叠加秋冬下游刚需补货，豆油库存呈下降趋 势。但因前期采购大豆增量明显，年底前压榨企业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of soybean meal futures is expected to be oscillating strongly, and the medium - term is expected to be oscillating. The short - and medium - term prices of palm oil and soybean oil futures are expected to be oscillating, and the intraday performance is expected to be oscillating weakly [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and reference view is oscillating strongly [5] - **Core Logic**: China's purchase of US soybeans boosts US soybean futures prices, but the pressure of Brazil's high - yield still exists. The market focuses on the US Department of Agriculture report next Monday. The short - term rebound space of US soybean futures prices is limited. Domestic oil mills still have soybean meal inventory pressure. After New Year's Day, replenishment by traders and feed mills drives up trading volume. In the short term, soybean meal is boosted by both short - term supply shortage and long - term cost support, so the futures price is oscillating strongly [5] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and reference view is oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: BMD crude palm oil fluctuates in a narrow range. Supported by the rebound of the entire oil and fat sector and the weakening of the ringgit, the decline in crude oil limits the increase; US soybean oil rises. On the one hand, Indonesia's biodiesel policy is less than expected. On the other hand, the market expects that next week's Malaysian palm report may further push up Malaysian palm inventory. Palm oil faces the greatest inventory pressure, and the domestic palm oil inventory continues to rise, highlighting the pressure on palm oil spot and futures prices. In the short term, the palm oil futures price is weaker than other oils and fats and should be treated as oscillating weakly [7] 3.3 Other Information - For soybean meal 2605, factors affecting the price include import soybean cost, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure. For soybean oil 2605, factors include US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. For palm 2605, factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesia's biodiesel and export policies, EU - related policy changes, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views The report offers insights into the trends and outlooks of various commodities in the futures market on January 8, 2026. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trends of each commodity, providing investment suggestions and trend intensities. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe-haven sentiment has rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [5][6]. - **Silver**: Prices have corrected from high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed. The trend intensity is 0 [9]. - **Zinc**: Prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory is supporting prices. The trend intensity is 0 [15]. - **Tin**: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have retreated after reaching highs. The trend intensity is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: Prices have slightly declined. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Alumina**: Prices are oscillating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Platinum**: Prices are oscillating to find a direction. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Palladium**: Prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Nickel**: There is a tug - of - war between real - world pressure and the narrative of a cyclical shift, with wide - range oscillations. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging, and the market is mainly focused on Indonesia's policies. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices are oscillating at high levels, and market sentiment changes should be monitored. The trend intensity is 0 [32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With silicon material production cuts, short positions can be established on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is significantly affected by news. The trend intensity is - 1 [36]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are fluctuating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [40]. - **Rebar**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Coke**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [52]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [53]. - **Log**: Prices are oscillating repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [56]. - **Para - Xylene**: Spot supply is sufficient, and prices are under short - term pressure, with a unilateral high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **PTA**: Prices are in a high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still medium - term pressure. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [69]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices are trending strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [72]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products continues to decline, and the basis is weakly stable. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **PP**: Macroeconomic sentiment is boosting, but fundamental improvements are limited. The trend intensity is 0 [78]. - **Caustic Soda**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [80]. - **Pulp**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [85]. - **Glass**: The prices of raw sheets are stable. The trend intensity is 0 [90]. - **Methanol**: Prices are oscillating and falling. The trend intensity is 0 [94]. - **Urea**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [99]. - **Styrene**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [103]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [107]. - **LPG**: The import cost is firm, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. The trend intensity is 0 [113]. - **Propylene**: Demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising. The trend intensity is 0 [114]. - **PVC**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [122]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices are oscillating in a narrow range, and there is still support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility is decreasing, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [144]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices are mainly oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [148]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to be exhausted, and pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are rebounding within a range, and attention should be paid to the spread opportunities between months. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Soybean**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [162]. - **Sugar**: Prices are consolidating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [166]. - **Cotton**: Prices are fluctuating with the overall market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [170]. - **Egg**: Sentiment for the far - month contracts is weakening. The trend intensity is 0 [177]. - **Live Pig**: There is negative feedback in demand. The trend intensity is - 1 [180]. - **Peanut**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [186]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The freight rate peak has emerged; for the 02 contract, wait and see, and for the 04 contract, short on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [128].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Affected by mixed fundamentals, the futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a volatile consolidation trend, with short - term support above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the moving - average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can firmly stand above 4,000 ringgit [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to related varieties. Although China's purchase of US soybeans boosts CBOT soybean prices, the abundant global soybean supply still weighs on it. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking and reduced soybean imports are positive, but the CBOT soybean price may still correct, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces pressure around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: With limited domestic available spot, the market is watching whether COFCO will start production on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the short - term downside is limited, and the overall trend is wide - range volatile adjustment [1]. - **Jujube**: The spot market price is weakly stable, with increased customer inquiries but no significant improvement in transactions. Affected by the warming commodity market sentiment, the futures price rebounds, and the basis narrows. The new - season warehouse receipt generation accelerates. Short - term fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the futures price will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the corn market is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, but selling pressure expectations and policy - supplemented supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar - cane crushing is nearing the end, and the market focus shifts to the Northern Hemisphere. India's sugar production has increased year - on - year, while Thailand's is still down. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking demand is strong, but the peak - season supply and cautious market sentiment limit the upside, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8][9]. - **Apple**: With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the market is more active, with good - quality apples in short supply and high prices. However, the high price may suppress consumption, and other fruits compete with apples. The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress [13]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are under pressure from falling oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US, the cotton - growing area is experiencing rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. The domestic cotton price is supported by strong expectations of reduced planting in Xinjiang and downstream replenishment, but is restricted by low foreign cotton costs and the off - season demand. In the short term, the cotton price will maintain a bullish trend, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. - **Egg**: Based on previous chick - sales data, the laying - hen inventory may decrease in January, alleviating supply pressure. After the continuous increase in egg prices, the market resists high - priced goods. The current market circulation is smooth, and inventories are low. With the approaching traditional consumption peak, the market sentiment is bullish, but the oversupply situation may limit the upside, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. - **Pig**: The spot price has returned to a volatile pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. Although the northern pig supply has decreased, high prices have dampened slaughterhouse procurement enthusiasm, and the southern demand has also weakened. Some second - fattening operations are still taking place, but overall enthusiasm is low. The market expects high consumption before the Spring Festival, but the supply in January is abundant, and the futures price is affected by market sentiment, with limited upside potential [19]. - **Meal**: The external market is under pressure from the global supply - demand situation, and the market awaits the USDA supply - demand report. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and meals is currently abundant, but the expected future shortage supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The first - quarter soybean arrival is expected to be low, but there is uncertainty in auctions and arrivals. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the short - term market sentiment is positive, with the futures price fluctuating strongly [21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1. Price and Spread - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - **Palm Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of P2605 was 8,562 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan or 0.73% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of Y2605 was 7,958 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 0.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of OI2605 was 9,606 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.38% [1]. - **Jujube**: The futures prices of jujube 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, with the 2605 contract rising 175 yuan or 1.95% to 9,150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2603 was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.17%, and the basis was 72 yuan, down 31 yuan or 30.10% [5]. - **Sugar**: The futures price of sugar 2605 was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.42% [8]. - **Apple**: The futures price of the apple 2605 contract was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.32% [10]. - **Cotton**: The futures price of cotton 2605 was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan or 1.21% [16]. - **Egg**: The futures price of the egg 03 contract was 3,011 yuan/500KG, up 11 yuan or 0.37% [18]. - **Pig**: The futures price of the pig 2605 contract was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% [19]. - **Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal M2605 was 2,811 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.26%, and the futures price of rapeseed meal RM2605 was 2,419 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 1.21% [21]. - **Spreads**: - **Three - oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread of the three - oil was 150 yuan, up 12 yuan or 8.70% [1]. - **Palm Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 110 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 6.78% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 14 yuan, down 38 yuan or - 73.08% [1]. - **Soybean - Palm Oil Spread**: The spot spread was - 110 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 2.72% [1]. - **Rapeseed - Soybean Oil Spread**: The spot spread was 1,440 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 81 yuan or - 6.65% [1]. - **Jujube 5 - 7 Spread**: It was - 45 yuan, up 25 yuan or 35.71% [2]. - **Jujube 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 180 yuan, up 40 yuan or 18.18% [2]. - **Corn 3 - 7 Spread**: It was - 36 yuan, up 10 yuan or 21.74% [5]. - **Sugar 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 12 yuan, up 4 yuan or 25.00% [8]. - **Apple 5 - 10 Spread**: It was 1,109 yuan, up 26 yuan or 2.40% [10]. - **Cotton 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 190 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 2.70% [16]. - **Egg 3 - 4 Spread**: It was - 253 yuan, down 3 yuan or - 1.20% [18]. - **Pig 3 - 5 Spread**: It was - 475 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 6.74% [19]. - **Soybean Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 77 yuan, up 18 yuan or 18.95% [21]. - **Rapeseed Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 46 yuan, up 1 yuan or 2.13% [21]. 3.2. Inventory and Supply - demand - **Inventory**: - **Palm Oil**: The warehouse receipt on January 7 was 1,248, up 688 or 122.86% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 28,264 (unchanged) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 2,130, down 1,167 [1]. - **Jujube**: The warehouse receipt was 2,263, up 158 or 7.51%, and the effective forecast was 745, down 107 or - 12.56% [2]. - **Corn**: The warehouse receipt was 34,655, up 3,000 or 9.48% [5]. - **Sugar**: The warehouse receipt was unchanged at 1000, and the effective forecast was 4,563 (unchanged) [8]. - **Apple**: The national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 tons, down 10.48 tons or - 1.41% [10]. - **Cotton**: The commercial inventory was 534.90 tons, up 66.54 tons or 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 tons, up 4.43 tons or 4.7% [16]. - **Meal**: The soybean meal warehouse receipt was 25,480, up 700 or 2.8% [21]. - **Supply - demand**: - **Sugar**: The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 23.24% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales decreased by 42.53% year - on - year. In Guangxi, the cumulative production decreased by 73.87% year - on - year, and the monthly sales decreased by 68.63% year - on - year [8]. - **Cotton**: The import volume increased by 33.3% month - on - month, and the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year [16]. - **Pig**: The slaughter volume increased by 0.63% day - on - day, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits improved [19].

Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Date: 2026-01-08 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are fluctuating and consolidating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are deadlocked, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Later, it will enter the production - reduction season, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8404, the basis is 446, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, but later it will enter the production - increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8530, the basis is 32, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: Palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10032, the basis is 937, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. Palm oil tremor season [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - Imported soybean inventory [6] - Soybean oil inventory [7] - Soybean meal inventory [9] - Oil mill soybean crushing [11] - Palm oil inventory [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed inventory [21] - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats [23] Demand - Related - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [13] - Apparent consumption of soybean meal [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: Wait for the negative factors to be fully priced in and pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [1] - Soybean oil: The unilateral price will mainly rebound within a range, and pay attention to the spread opportunities between different contract months [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,562 yuan/ton (up 0.73% during the day) and 8,594 yuan/ton (up 0.37% at night); Soybean oil主力 closed at 7,958 yuan/ton (up 0.58% during the day) and 7,974 yuan/ton (up 0.20% at night); Rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,095 yuan/ton (down 0.38% during the day) and 9,028 yuan/ton (down 0.74% at night); Malaysian palm主力 closed at 4,035 ringgit/ton (up 1.08% during the day) and 4,050 ringgit/ton (up 0.42% at night); CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 49.27 cents/pound (down 0.26%) [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 453,932 lots (an increase of 39,340) and an open interest of 393,568 lots (an increase of 2,512); Soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 297,201 lots (an increase of 34,187) and an open interest of 643,998 lots (an increase of 22,151); Rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 289,824 lots (an increase of 72,757) and an open interest of 228,469 lots (an increase of 8,124) [1] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan/ton (with no price change); First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton (with no price change); Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,050 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,015 US dollars/ton (with no price change) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 8 yuan/ton; The basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 512 yuan/ton; The basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 955 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 533 yuan/ton; The spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 604 yuan/ton; The 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 110 yuan/ton; The 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 150 yuan/ton; The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 14 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia may confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations this year [2] - Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2024 was estimated to decrease by 4.64% to 1.84 million tons, with a 7.59% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, 0.6% in Sabah, and 2.41% in Sarawak [3][4] - Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 19.6 million tons, 2.1% higher than the previous estimate, with a range of 19.1 - 20.1 million tons [4] - As of December 31, 2025, the total vegetable oil inventory in major ports in India was 914,310 tons, a decrease of 37,363 tons (3.93%) from December 15; The CPO inventory was 435,412 tons, a decrease of 47,606 tons (9.86%) from the previous period [4] - Thailand's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 3.82 million tons, with a stable yield increase, and the estimated range is 3.32 - 4.32 million tons. In November, the production dropped to 267,000 tons, a 15.1% decrease from the previous month, and the cumulative production from January to November was 3.62 million tons, a 15.3% year - on - year increase [4] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to remain at 51.2 million tons. Bad weather continues to affect field operations, and the EU weather model predicts complex weather conditions in the next 15 days [5] - The market expects the US soybean production report to maintain the production estimate of 4.253 billion bushels and the yield of 53.0 bushels/acre, and the global soybean production may decrease by 1.1% year - on - year [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0 [6]

图为板块资金流入额（亿元） 单品种看，昨日资金主要流入的商品期货（主连合约）品种有碳酸锂、螺纹钢、氧化铝、沥青和铁矿石，分别流入20.25 亿元、4.55 亿元、4.21 亿元、3.76 亿元和3.75 亿元；主要流出的品种有黄金、铜、铝、多晶硅和苹果，分别流出5.95 亿元、3.17 亿元、2.26 亿元、1.42 亿元和0.74 亿元。从主力合约看，有色 金属、黑色、农产品和化工板块呈流入状态，金融板块呈流出状态。 整体看，昨日商品期货（主连合约）资金呈大幅流入状态。有色金属和黑色板块流入较多，重点关注流入较多的碳酸锂、螺纹钢、氧化铝、铁矿石和白银， 同时关注逆势流出的黄金、铜、铝和不锈钢。化工和农产品板块小幅流入，重点关注流入较多的沥青、豆粕和豆油，同时关注逆势流出的苹果和LPG。金融 板块重点关注沪深300股指期货和30年期国债期货。（徽商期货 方正） 图为商品期货资金流入前十名（亿元） 图为商品期货资金流出前十名（亿元） 图为商品期货主连合约资金流向（亿元） 图为金融期货主连合约资金流向（亿元） ...