昨日三大油脂价格震荡，外部环境趋稳，供需结构延续，油脂静待新的驱动，盘面震荡运行。 策略 中性 油脂日报 | 2026-03-05 无新驱动指引，价格震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约9002.00元/吨，环比变化+8元，幅度+0.09%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8370.00 元/吨，环比变化+20.00元，幅度+0.24%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9486.00元/吨，环比变化+22.00元，幅度+0.23%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8940.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.68%，现货基差P05-62.00，环比变化 +52.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8570.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y05+200.00， 环比变化-30.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10090.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.30%，现货基差 OI05+604.00，环比变化+8.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(4月船期)C&F价格1164美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；阿根廷豆油(6月船期)C&F 价格11 ...

Report Title - Short-term oils and fats lack obvious drivers, and wide-range fluctuations are likely to continue [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short-term oils and fats are expected to continue wide-range fluctuations without a clear trend [26] - Domestic soybean supply is currently sufficient, and soybean crushing is expected to pick up in the next two weeks. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de-stocking slightly, but overall inventory is not likely to be tight. There is no prominent contradiction in soybean oil at present [5][24] - Sino-Canadian rapeseed trade is expected to resume, and rapeseed supply is expected to increase. However, it will take time for Canadian rapeseed purchases to arrive at ports. Rapeseed oil is expected to continue de-stocking, and the decline space of near-month contracts may be limited [5][24] - High-frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil will reduce production and de-stock in January, and it is expected to continue to do so in the later stage, but the de-stocking speed is slow, and high inventory may continue [5][24] Summary by Directory Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Recent Core Events & Market Review - SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of January decreased by 16.06% compared with the same period last month. ITS shows that the export volume in the same period was 950,000 tons, a 11.4% increase [5][8] - As of January 21, 2026, the sowing progress of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean has completed 96.2% of the planned area, a 2.3 percentage point increase from last week [5][11] - This week, oils and fats showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, mainly driven by factors such as the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the rise of crude oil due to the cold wave in the United States, and good expectations for U.S. biodiesel [5] International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: High-frequency data shows a 16.06% decrease in production in the first 20 days of January compared with the same period last month, and a 11.4% increase in exports. The inventory in January may drop to around 2.8 million tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period. UOB predicts a 13%-17% decrease in production in the first 20 days of January, similar to SPPOMA. The weather forecast shows increased rainfall in the southern Malay Peninsula in the next two weeks [8] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The government revoked the operating licenses of 28 companies and will raise the palm oil LEVY tax from March 1, both of which will boost palm oil prices [8] - **South American Soybeans**: As of January 17, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate was 98.6%, and the harvest progress was 2.3%. Some areas may be affected by continuous rainfall. As of January 21, Argentina's sowing progress reached 96.2%, but the northern agricultural region was affected by continuous rainfall [11] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 746,100 tons, a 1.37% increase from last week, at a slightly high level. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and there are rumors of near-month purchases. The basis is fluctuating weakly. Short-term palm oil lacks obvious drivers, and high inventory is expected to persist, but factors such as the low inventory in Indonesia, the upcoming tax increase, and accelerated exports will provide support. It is recommended to wait and see [14] - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 963,300 tons, a 6.03% decrease from last week, at a relatively high level in the same period. The basis is stable and slightly weak. The spot trading volume has improved, and the inventory is expected to continue to de-stock slightly. Short-term domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, and it lacks obvious drivers, so it is expected to maintain a bottom-range fluctuation [19] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 0 last week, and the inventory was exhausted. As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 275,000 tons, a 24,000-ton increase, at a neutral level, and the inventory is continuously de-stocking. The European rapeseed oil FOB price is stable at around $1,030, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around -$1,300. There are rumors of domestic purchases of Canadian rapeseed, and short-term supply of tradable rapeseed oil is tight, supporting the basis. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may lead to a weakening trend in rapeseed oil, but considering the time for rapeseed purchases to arrive at ports and the good biodiesel expectations, the decline space of near-month contracts may be limited [22] Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short-term oils and fats may continue wide-range fluctuations without a trend [26] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [26] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [26] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Includes monthly data on production, exports, and inventory [31][32][33][35] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: Includes monthly data on production, exports, and inventory [36][37][38][39] - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Covers NOPA U.S. soybean crushing volume, NOPA U.S. soybean oil monthly inventory, Brazilian soybean monthly crushing volume, Brazilian soybean oil monthly inventory, Argentine soybean monthly crushing volume, and Argentine soybean oil inventory [41][43][45][47] - **Indian Oils and Fats**: Covers monthly data on consumption, imports, port inventory, and imports of different types of oils [49][50][51][52][54][56][58][59] Domestic Market - **Import Profits**: Includes domestic rapeseed oil and 24-degree palm oil import profits [62][63][64][66] - **Supply and Demand of Different Oils**: Covers data on supply and demand, including crushing volume, consumption, trading volume, and inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [66][68][70] - **Spot Basis**: Includes the spot basis of first-grade soybean oil, 24-degree palm oil, and domestic triple-rapeseed oil [73] - **Commercial Inventory**: Includes data on the commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total oils and fats [77][78][79][80][82][83][84]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are relatively loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which has affected the export of new US soybeans and put pressure on prices. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. As it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,442, with a basis of 204, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous level and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,050 - 8,450. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. As it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,732, with a basis of 38, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous level and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 8,900. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as above, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. As it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,126, with a basis of 351, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous level and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000. [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at relatively high historical levels, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Current Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5] Supply - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: No detailed data provided, only mentioned. [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: The inventory data on September 22 shows an increase compared to the previous period and a year-on-year increase. [2] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: The inventory data on September 22 shows an increase compared to the previous period and a year-on-year decrease. [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: The inventory data on September 22 shows an increase compared to the previous period and a year-on-year increase. [4] - **Domestic Total Inventory of Oils and Fats**: No detailed data provided, only mentioned. [23] Demand - **Apparent Consumption of Soybean Oil**: The report shows the apparent consumption data of soybean oil from 2015 - 2025. [14] - **Apparent Consumption of Soybean Meal**: The report shows the apparent consumption data of soybean meal from 2015 - 2025. [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The smooth soybean sowing in South America, which has reached 24%, along with the potential for further growth in South American planting areas, exerts some pressure on the market. However, the low rapeseed inventory in domestic oil mills and the low operating rate, combined with the relatively concentrated ownership of rapeseed oil inventory and strong overall basis, lead to the oils' prices mainly in a fluctuating state [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,318.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +10 yuan and a幅度 of +0.11% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,298.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +42.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.51% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,918.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +57.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.58% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,290.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +80.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.87%, and the spot basis was P01 + -28.00, with a环比 change of +70.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,510.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +50.00 yuan/ton and a幅度 of +0.59%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 212.00, with a环比 change of +8.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,230.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +60.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.59%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 312.00, with a环比 change of +3.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of soybeans in Brazil for the 2025/26 season had reached 24% [2] - The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from October 1 - 20 was 1,044,784 tons, a 3.4% increase compared to the same period last month [2] - In September this year, China did not import soybeans from the United States, the first time since November 2018 that China's monthly soybean imports from the US dropped to zero. China is increasing its soybean purchases from South American countries to replace US soybeans [2] - As of October 17, 2025 (week 42), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 575,700 tons, an increase of 28,100 tons from last week, a增幅 of 5.13%, and an increase of 59,800 tons compared to 515,900 tons last year, a增幅 of 11.59% [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) was 508 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 518 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Before the holiday, the risk - aversion sentiment is strong, and the prices of oils and fats are fluctuating. The long - short factors are superimposed, and the trends may diverge. In the short term, due to market risk - aversion during the two festivals, the prices will mainly fluctuate [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,234.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 2 yuan and a decline of - 0.02%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,150.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 12.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.15%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,093.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 69.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.68% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,190.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 0.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.00%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 44.00, with a环比 change of + 2.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,340.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 40.00 yuan/ton and a decline of - 0.48%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 190.00, with a环比 change of - 28.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,310.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 70.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.67%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 217.00, with a环比 change of - 1.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary US Soybean Export - As of the week ending September 25, 2025, the US shipped 0 tons of soybeans to China (Mainland). The US soybean export inspection volume was 593,956 tons, compared with the revised 565,630 tons of the previous week. The cumulative US soybean export inspection volume for this crop year was 2,246,104 tons, compared with 1,929,770 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] South American Crop Progress - As of last Thursday, the planting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop was 3.2%, higher than 0.9% a week ago and 2% in the same period last year. The planting progress of the first - crop corn in Brazil's central - southern region reached 32% [2] International Oil and Fat Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) was 509 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 519 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1,113 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1,111 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1,125 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1,105 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (November shipment) was 457 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (November shipment) was 433 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) was 477 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton [2] Imported Soybean Premiums - The import premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (November shipment) was 232 cents/bushel, down 8 cents/bushel; the import premium of US West Coast soybeans (November shipment) was 165 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel; the import premium of Brazilian ports' soybeans (November shipment) was 285 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel [2] Group 5: Support and Pressure Factors for Oil and Fat Prices Support Factors - Palm oil is gradually entering the seasonal production - reduction cycle, and the demand is good. The low inventory of rapeseed oil will support the oil and fat prices to a certain extent [3] Pressure Factors - The expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest is gradually being realized, and the sowing in South America is going smoothly, which will put some pressure on the oil and fat prices [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated strongly yesterday. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in China in August was 140,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. From January to August, the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 1.45 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%. Domestic spot traders and oil mills are holding firm on prices. The basis of rapeseed oil has steadily increased, and the futures price of rapeseed oil is also strong. The fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for rapeseed oil, which provides some support for rapeseed oil [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,222 yuan/ton, a change of +96 yuan from the previous day, a change of +1.05% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,192 yuan/ton, a change of +92 yuan from the previous day, a change of +1.14% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,142 yuan/ton, a change of +221 yuan from the previous day, a change of +2.23% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,140 yuan/ton, a change of +170 yuan from the previous day, a change of +1.90%. The spot basis was P01 + -82 yuan, a change of +74 yuan from the previous day [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,370 yuan/ton, a change of +90 yuan/ton from the previous day, a change of +1.09%. The spot basis was Y01 + 178 yuan, a change of -2 yuan from the previous day [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,330 yuan/ton, a change of +190 yuan from the previous day, a change of +1.87%. The spot basis was OI01 + 188 yuan, a change of -31 yuan from the previous day [1] Market News - After Argentina suspended the export tax on grains for nearly three days, the soybean export volume reached the highest level in at least seven years. The total soybean shipment volume in the 2024/25 season reached 10.5 million tons [2] - The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Intelligence used unmanned attack boats to attack the Russian ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse on the Black Sea coast. The attack paralyzed the oil loading facilities and terminal equipment near the Novorossiysk port, with daily crude oil exports of about 2 million barrels [2] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, setting a new record for the two-day purchase volume. These soybean oil orders will be shipped in batches from October to March of the following year at a purchase price of $1,100 to $1,120 per ton [2] - The estimated soybean output in Paraná, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season is 21.94 million tons, down from the August forecast of 22.05 million tons. The estimated soybean planting area is about 5.77 million hectares, down from the August forecast of 5.8 million hectares [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. Recent macro - environmental changes have put pressure on oil prices. The supply side of oils remains relatively loose, with high inventories in both producing and consuming regions, causing overall prices to be under pressure and fluctuate [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9424.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan or 0.61% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8366.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.00 yuan or 0.62% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9999.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54.00 yuan or 0.54% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.32%, with a spot basis of P01 + - 44.00, an increase of 28.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8530.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan/ton or 0.58%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 164.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10220.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.49%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 221.00, an increase of 4.00 yuan [1] Market News - The French Ministry of Agriculture predicts that France's soft wheat exports outside the EU in 2025/26 will be 7.85 million tons, up from the July forecast of 7.5 million tons [2] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 695,716 tons, a 0.1% decrease from the same period last month [2] - Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price increased by 7 dollars/ton to 535 dollars/ton, and (January shipment) increased by 7 dollars/ton to 544 dollars/ton [2] - Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price increased by 5 dollars/ton to 1183 dollars/ton, and (December shipment) increased by 6 dollars/ton to 1179 dollars/ton [2] - Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) C&F price remained flat at 1080 dollars/ton, and (December shipment) remained flat at 1060 dollars/ton [2] - US Gulf soybeans (November shipment) C&F price increased by 4 dollars/ton to 473 dollars/ton, US West soybeans (November shipment) decreased by 4 dollars/ton to 444 dollars/ton, and Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) decreased by 3 dollars/ton to 490 dollars/ton [2] - Import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (November shipment) increased by 5 cents/bushel to 240 cents/bushel, US West Coast (November shipment) decreased by 18 cents/bushel to 160 cents/bushel, and Brazilian ports (November shipment) decreased by 13 cents/bushel to 286 cents/bushel [2] - From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21% month - on - month, and production decreased by 8.05% month - on - month [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to the strategy [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. Heavy rainfall in some palm oil producing areas and strong palm oil import data from India provided support for oil prices. Future attention should be paid to the progress of China-US negotiations [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,482.00 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.64% from the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,418.00 yuan/ton, up 42.00 yuan or 0.50%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,053.00 yuan/ton, up 153.00 yuan or 1.55% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,410.00 yuan/ton, up 110.00 yuan or 1.18%, with a spot basis of P01 + -72.00, up 50.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first-grade soybean oil was 8,580.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan/ton or 0.70%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 162.00, up 18.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil was 10,270.00 yuan/ton, up 160.00 yuan or 1.58%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 217.00, up 7.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: Ethanol production has made DDGS a cheaper feed option for the poultry industry, pressuring soybean meal. The US Department of Agriculture expects India's soybean meal exports to fall from 1.4 million tons to 0.9 million tons and palm oil imports to rise from 8.7 million tons to 8.9 million tons. As of the end of the 37th week (September 13), the average operating rate of domestic oil mills was 64.99%, up 2.71% from the previous week. The total soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 2.4298 million tons, up 0.1013 million tons from the previous week. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) and (January shipment) decreased by 3 dollars/ton. The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) and (December shipment) increased by 21 dollars/ton and 20 dollars/ton respectively. The C&F quotes of imported rapeseed oil remained unchanged. The C&F prices of US Gulf soybeans (October shipment) and US West soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 1 dollar/ton, while the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) remained unchanged. The import soybean premium of Brazilian ports (October shipment) increased by 1 cent/bushel [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Recent soybean harvest season in the US is approaching, with favorable weather conditions in the production areas, gradually realizing the expected high - yield, and the global soybean supply remains in a loose pattern. The China - US negotiation is the main focus for the future market. The consumption of palm oil during the two festivals has limited driving force, and the overall price of edible oils will continue to fluctuate [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9384.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68 yuan or +0.73% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8348.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9801.00 yuan/ton, a change of +12.00 yuan or +0.12% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9310.00 yuan/ton, a change of +110.00 yuan or +1.20%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 74.00, a change of +42.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8470.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was Y01 + 122.00, a change of +10.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9900.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan or +0.10%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 99.00, a change of -2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary - As of August 29, 2025 (Week 35), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 61.01 tons, an increase of 2.80 tons or 4.81% compared to the previous week [2] - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high, and it is expected that oil mills will maintain a high operating rate, with the monthly soybean crushing volume around 9.5 million tons [2] - In August, Argentina's agricultural exports dropped by 25% year - on - year, and the total export value of the agricultural sector was 1.82 billion US dollars, a significant decrease of 55% compared to July [2] - Last week, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased again, reaching a high in more than two months. As of the end of Week 35 (August 30), the average operating rate of domestic major soybean oil mills was 67.26%, an increase of 3.23% compared to the previous week's 64.03%. The total soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 2.5148 million tons, an increase of 120,900 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the crushing volume of domestic soybeans was 16,900 tons, and the crushing volume of imported soybeans was 2.4979 million tons. This week, the expected soybean processing volume will remain high at 2.5213 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.44% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The U.S. ProFarmer company's crop inspection shows that the expectation of a bountiful soybean harvest remains unchanged, and the yield per unit is likely to reach a record high. However, due to a significant reduction in the planted area, the overall soybean production is still uncertain [3] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) predicts that Malaysian palm oil prices will remain above 4,300 ringgit, supported by biodiesel demand, tightening soybean oil supply, and a slowdown in palm oil supply growth. The price strength depends on palm oil's competitiveness against soybean oil in the export market [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,640 yuan/ton, a change of +56 yuan or +0.58% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,526 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.12% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,850 yuan/ton, a change of +24 yuan or +0.24% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,660 yuan/ton, a change of +150 yuan or +1.58%, with a spot basis of P01 + 20 yuan, a change of +94 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,680 yuan/ton, a change of +50 yuan/ton or +0.58%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 154 yuan, a change of +40 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,980 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 130 yuan, a change of - 4 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Crop Yield Forecasts - ProFarmer expects the 2025 corn yield per acre in Ohio to be 185.69 bushels/acre, compared to 183.29 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the 2025 corn yield per acre in South Dakota to be 174.18 bushels/acre, compared to 156.51 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the average number of soybean pods in Ohio in 2025 to be 1,287.28, compared to 1,229.93 in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the average number of soybean pods in South Dakota in 2025 to be 1,188.45, compared to 1,025.89 in 2024 [2] Brazilian "Soybean Moratorium Plan" - Brazil's competition management agency CADE recommends a full investigation of the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan". The general manager of CADE decides to implement "preventive measures" and impose fines on the working group coordinating the plan and the soybean export companies that signed the document [2] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) is concerned about CADE's decision, will take administrative measures to appeal, and will maintain a "cooperative spirit" with the competition regulator [2]