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中美经济和股市的‘东升西落’
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旗旗帜鲜明看多中国资产
Soochow Securities· 2025-04-07 14:36
Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on Chinese assets, asserting that the current environment presents more opportunities than risks, especially in light of the recent unexpected U.S. tariffs and rising recession expectations globally [1] - The framework of nominal growth rate differences between China and the U.S. is emphasized as a critical variable for A-share market recovery, with the expectation that this divergence will drive asset price recovery in China [2] Economic Performance - China's economy is expected to achieve a good start in 2025, supported by continuous optimization of supply structure and improvement in effective demand, leading to enhanced internal economic momentum [4] - The macroeconomic policy has shifted since late September 2023, with counter-cyclical adjustment tools being actively deployed, indicating a clear recovery trend in the fundamentals of the Chinese economy [4] Policy Adjustments - There remains significant room for policy adjustments in China, with monetary policy having ample space for further easing, and fiscal policy set to increase spending intensity and pace [4] - The upcoming Politburo meeting is highlighted as a key observation point for potential counter-cyclical policy announcements [4] Real Estate Market - Confidence in the real estate sector has improved, with recent government measures aimed at stabilizing the market showing signs of effectiveness, as evidenced by stabilizing second-hand housing prices in major cities [4] Debt Management - Overall debt risks are deemed controllable, with the government implementing various measures to enhance risk prevention and management, including a comprehensive debt reduction policy [5] Market Sentiment - The announcement from Central Huijin regarding the increase in ETF holdings reflects a commitment to supporting the stability of the capital market, indicating confidence in the future development of China's capital markets [5]