中美经贸政策不确定性
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四季度股指期权策略仍需“攻守兼备”
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-10-13 01:20
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a bullish trend in Q4 2025, but faces increased macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding US-China trade policies, leading to heightened market volatility. Investors are encouraged to utilize options to create a balanced portfolio to navigate this turbulence and enhance returns [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - In Q3 2025, the market favored trading growth-oriented index options, with the CSI 1000 index options holding a market share of 33.29%, a slight decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the previous quarter. The Southern CSI 500 ETF options followed with an 18.05% share, down 4 percentage points, while the ChiNext ETF options rose to 12.85%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points [2]. - The PCR (Put-Call Ratio) values for major financial options showed an upward trend, with the CSI 300 index options rising from 65% to around 100%, and the CSI 1000 index options increasing from 95% to approximately 120%, before retreating to a range of 90%-100% [2]. Group 2: Volatility Analysis - Implied volatility for options exhibited a clear pattern of rising and then declining in Q3 2025. The average implied volatility for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 options peaked at 24.11% and around 29% respectively in late August, before decreasing to approximately 15% and 22% [3]. - The implied volatility reached historical highs, with CSI 300 and CSI 1000 options touching the 90% and 87% percentiles over the past three years, indicating a more rational investor sentiment compared to previous market surges [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to Q4, the market remains in a bullish phase, with the CSI 300 index's bond-equity ratio at a two-standard-deviation extreme below the past three-year average. Implied volatility is at historical lows, but there is potential for an upward spike due to US-China trade uncertainties [5]. - Investors are advised to consider selling out-of-the-money put options after market sentiment stabilizes, as this strategy offers a higher margin of safety compared to direct long positions in index futures. Additionally, a shift from unilateral upward movement to a range-bound market is anticipated, suggesting that investors holding long positions in index futures should consider selling out-of-the-money call options to generate additional income [5].