中美贸易关系阶段性缓和
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建信期货棉花日报-20251114
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 06:35
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures are fluctuating and adjusting. The latest price index of Grade 328 cotton is 14,819 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quoted price of machine-picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang is mostly around 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton (on a legal weight basis), with a small amount of lower prices between 14,500 - 14,600 yuan/ton. The lower basis for the same quality of spot cotton is CF01 + 1000 - 1150, and the higher selling basis is CF01 + 1150 - 1350, with sporadic low prices below 1000. The mainstream basis for machine-picked cotton of Grade 41 in Northern Xinjiang is CF01 + 900 or above, with low prices in the range of 800 - 900 [7]. - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has weakened marginally overall, with insufficient new orders. There are differences among different varieties. Some manufacturers reported that the export orders for high-count yarns are good, while domestic sales orders are relatively average. Weaving factories reported that their profits are around the break-even point. The prices of some all-cotton grey fabrics have increased, and the overall price is stable. The shipments of all-cotton weaving factories have increased locally, and the inventory has decreased [7]. Market Analysis - International market: There is a glimmer of hope for the US government shutdown crisis. The NASS said that the monthly supply and demand report is scheduled to be released on November 14. Attention should be paid to whether there are adjustments to the US cotton production [8]. - Domestic market: Recently, the purchase of seed cotton is gradually coming to an end, and the purchase price has declined from the peak. The market is concerned about the changes in production expectations. With the phased easing of Sino-US trade relations, the import of US cotton may increase in the future. As of the end of October, the commercial inventory level of cotton is slightly higher than that of the same period last year [8]. - Downstream market: After a short-term correction, the procurement of cotton by spinning mills has improved. Some previously locked basis prices have been fixed, and the local demand is good, but the overall demand is not strong. During the peak period of new cotton listing and processing, the supply pressure continues to increase, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are fluctuating and adjusting [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of November 12, 2025, a total of 1,028 cotton processing enterprises across the country have processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume is 12,070,635 bales, totaling 2.7258 million tons, an increase of 97,200 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang is 11,963,174 bales, totaling 2.7018 million tons, an increase of 96,400 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland area is 60,026 bales, totaling 13,300 tons [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate [16][18][19][21][28][30]