1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For oils, affected by multiple negative factors such as high - inventory of Malaysian palm oil and potential delay of Indonesia's B50 policy, domestic three major oils have been under pressure and declined. After the reduction in production is realized and Malaysian palm oil starts to destock, oils may stop falling and rebound. For protein meals, the cost side supports soybean meal, but the abundant domestic supply restricts its upward space. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal with a weak supply - demand situation [8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint and Strategy 3.1.1 Oils - **Core Logic**: Multiple negative factors such as high - inventory of Malaysian palm oil and potential delay of Indonesia's B50 policy have led to the decline of Malaysian palm oil, which in turn has pressured domestic oils. However, considering Indonesia's low inventory and approaching low - production period, palm oil is not overly pessimistic. After the negative impact of Malaysian palm oil inventory build - up in October is released, palm oil is expected to rebound [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of October 31, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for December delivery was 3923 yuan/ton, with a negative gross profit of 248 yuan/ton on the futures market. The import cost of palm oil (November shipment) was 9251 yuan/ton, with a negative spot profit of 678 yuan/ton and a negative futures profit of 274 yuan/ton for November shipment. The theoretical import cost of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) was 4459 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of 765 yuan/ton and a futures crushing profit of 497 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in November is 955000 tons, rapeseed 19500 tons, and palm oil 39000 tons [8]. - **Demand**: In October, the total transaction volume of bulk soybean oil in key domestic oil mills was 240000 tons, a 29.12% month - on - month decrease. The palm oil trading volume was 22115 tons, a 36.07% month - on - month decrease. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 49900 tons, a 51.55% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Inventory**: As of October 24, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key national regions was 2.3934 million tons, an 18.77% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and go long at low prices after the fundamentals improve. Pay attention to the reverse spread of soybean oil 1 - 5 contracts [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Core Logic**: The improvement in US soybean export expectations supports the cost of soybean meal, but the abundant domestic supply restricts its upward space. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal, with a weak supply - demand situation due to low inventory in coastal oil mills and reduced demand in the off - season of aquaculture [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: Similar to the oil section, the cost and profit data of soybeans and rapeseed are the same [11]. - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in November is 955000 tons, and rapeseed 19500 tons [11]. - **Demand**: In October, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 2.0506 million tons, a 34.51% month - on - month and 63.91% year - on - year decrease. The pick - up volume of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills was 41500 tons, a decrease of 60100 tons from the previous month [11]. - **Inventory**: In the 43rd week, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills was 1054600 tons, an 8.03% increase from the previous week, basically the same as the same period last year. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 8.02 days, a decrease of 1.58 days from the end of September. The inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills was 7100 tons, an 8.97% decrease from the previous week and an 88.64% decrease year - on - year. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal was 528800 tons, which has been declining recently but remains at a high level [11]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see in the short - term for both single - side and arbitrage trading [11]. 3.2 Market Review of Oils and Meals in October 2025 - **Oils**: In October, the three major oils declined unilaterally, mainly due to the negative impact of palm oil. Malaysian palm oil production and inventory in September were higher than expected, and high - frequency data showed an increase in production and weak exports in October. Coupled with the potential delay of Indonesia's B50 policy, Malaysian palm oil fell sharply, leading the decline in the domestic palm oil sector. Although the cost side supported soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventory decreased from a high level, they were still dragged down by palm oil and declined [15]. - **Protein Meals**: In October, soybean meal and rapeseed meal first declined and then rebounded. In the first half of the month, they were weak due to factors such as abundant domestic supply and expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations. In the second half of the month, the improvement in US soybean export expectations supported the cost side, and they rebounded [28]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Oilseeds 3.3.1 International Situation - **US Soybeans**: The US government shutdown has suspended the release of USDA reports. It is expected that the soybean harvest is nearly complete. The dry weather in the main production areas is conducive to the harvest [36]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of October 25, the planting progress was 34.4%, slightly slower than the same period last year and the five - year average. In October, the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated downward. If China resumes purchasing US soybeans, Brazilian soybean exports are expected to decline [39][43]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In August, the production was 5.06 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 1.8% month - on - month. The inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons. It is expected that the production in 2025 will increase by 10% [47]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In September, the production was 1.8412 million tons, and the inventory reached 2.361 million tons, higher than expected. High - frequency data showed an increase in production in October, and the export data for October increased slightly. The inventory build - up was higher than expected [50][55]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: From August 1 to October 26, 2025, the cumulative export volume decreased by 62.24% year - on - year. The domestic crushing demand was strong [59]. 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - **Soybeans**: As of October 28, the procurement progress for November was 87.73%. It is estimated that the import volume in November will be large, and the inventory in oil mills remains at a high level. In October, the import cost increased, and the crushing profit was poor. The soybean crushing volume remained high [64][68][75]. - **Palm Oil**: In October, the import cost decreased significantly, and the import loss deepened. The import volume in September was low and rebounded in October. It is estimated that the import volume in November will be 39000 tons [84][89][93]. - **Rapeseed**: In October, the import cost increased, and the crushing profit decreased significantly. The import volume decreased sharply in September and is expected to recover slightly in November. The inventory in oil mills remains at a low level, and the crushing volume remains low [97][101][105]. - **Inventory of Three Major Oils**: As of October 24, 2025, the total inventory was at a high level, with a year - on - year increase of 18.77%. The inventory trends of the three major oils diverged, with soybean oil and palm oil continuing to build up inventory, and rapeseed oil inventory declining from a high level [116][122]. - **Demand for Oils**: In October, the demand for oils weakened after the festival. The transaction volume of soybean oil, palm oil, and the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil all decreased [124]. - **Inventory of Protein Meals**: It is expected that the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills will remain high in November. The inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills is low, while the inventory of imported rapeseed meal remains at a high level but has been declining recently [128][137]. - **Demand for Protein Meals**: In October, the transaction volume of soybean meal decreased significantly, and the pick - up volume of rapeseed meal also decreased [132][143]. 3.4 Arbitrage Spread Tracking 3.4.1 Inter - period Spread of Oils - For some contracts, historical spread core intervals, means, medians, current spreads, and distances from the mean are provided, and some suggest paying attention to reverse - spread opportunities while others suggest waiting and seeing [148]. 3.4.2 Inter - variety Spread - For different oil varieties, historical spread core intervals, means, medians, current spreads, and distances from the mean are given. Some suggest waiting for opportunities to go long on palm oil and short on soybean oil, while others suggest waiting and seeing [152].