华泰证券机构业务委员会主席梁红在致辞中表示，2025是"十四五"收官之年，中国经济展现更多的确定 性。"十五五"规划建议重提以经济建设为中心，明确提出要提高居民消费占GDP的比例，将从出口、投 资驱动的模式迈向消费为主、内需驱动的增长模式。展望明年，相信中国资产的重估将会进一步走向纵 深，权益投资者从过去两年"左手红利、右手科技"的策略，可能会逐步关注与经济基本面改善更加密切 的能源、消费、地产等顺周期板块，尤其是这些"老经济"板块中的优质龙头企业。 明年宏观政策如何演进，经济形势将有哪些变化？华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘认为，出口方面， 2025年中国出口韧性成为市场强共识，预计2026年仍保持较强韧性，产业升级成为主要叙事；财政政策 将保持温和扩张态势，为去杠杆周期"收尾"提供支持；地产去杠杆对信用周期和企业现金流的冲击边际 缓解、甚至消失。海外来看，美国政策"无序性"边际下降，全球财政、货币政策同步宽松，中美经贸关 系波动性有望回落。 2026年股市和债市如何发展、关注点有哪些？华泰证券研究所所长、固收首席张继强指出，今年股市主 要由情绪、资金和估值驱动，市场认知和叙事变化驱动行情，明年有望转向业绩验证 ...

Core Insights - The stock market this year has been primarily driven by sentiment, capital, and valuation, with a shift in market perception and narrative influencing trends. There is an expectation for a transition to performance verification in the coming year [1] - The bond market has experienced a correction from excessive gains at the beginning of the year, and it is anticipated to return to a fundamental logic next year, focusing on nominal GDP, financing demand, and the stock-bond valuation ratio [1] - A significant point to note is that next year will see a large amount of medium- to long-term deposits maturing, which may lead to a reallocation of funds that could benefit the stock market [1] Market Trends - Short-term predictions suggest that the stock market may undergo a period of consolidation, while the bond market has a slightly higher probability of success but with average returns. However, in the first quarter of next year, the likelihood of stocks outperforming bonds remains high [1] - The bond market faces primary pressures from improved fundamental expectations, adjustments in institutional behavior, and the stock-bond valuation ratio. Despite this, the supportive stance of monetary policy and the need for recovery in financing demand limit the potential for interest rate increases, leading to an overall slightly weaker and more volatile market outlook [1]