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零售银行如何突出重围?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-11-08 12:30
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [3] Core Insights - The future development direction of retail banking should focus on planning adjustments, enhancing credit opening momentum, and adjusting loan risk preferences [1][6] - Retail banks are expected to strengthen their asset under management (AUM) fundamentals and expand "medium-risk - medium-return" retail loans [1][6] - Corporate banking is becoming an important support for retail banks, leveraging regional advantages to establish a "latecomer advantage" [1][6] Summary by Sections 1. Retail Banking's Industry Leadership - Retail banks like Ping An Bank and China Merchants Bank had a significant leadership position before the interest rate cut cycle, with their profitability growing faster than peers [10][11] - The success of retail banking is attributed to technology, teams, and service [14] 2. Current Operating Status of Retail Banks - Retail banking profitability growth has weakened compared to the industry average, with Ping An Bank and China Merchants Bank's net profit growth rates at -3.90% and +0.25% respectively in the first half of 2025 [24][28] - The net interest income and fee-based income of retail banks have faced significant pressure, with Ping An Bank's net interest income declining by 9.33% year-on-year [28][30] 3. Future Directions for Retail Banking - Important planning adjustments include enhancing the "credit opening" effect and tightening high-risk credit loan issuance [1][6] - Retail banks should focus on capturing AUM fundamentals and expanding medium-risk retail loans to balance risk and return [1][6] - Corporate banking is crucial for retail banks, with Ping An Bank and China Merchants Bank showing significant growth in corporate loans [1][6]