上 市 公 司 2025 年 08 月 24 日 平安银行 (000001) ——零售结构调整或进入后半程 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 12.06 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 13.43/9.61 | | 市净率 | 0.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.04 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 234,032 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,825.76/12,166.06 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 22.68 | | 资产负债率% | 91.32 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 19,406/19,406 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-22 09-22 10-22 11-22 12-22 01-22 02-22 03-22 04-22 05-22 06 ...

单季净利息收入环比-4.7%，负债端成本率延续大幅改善趋势。2Q25 单季净利息收入环比-4.7%，单季 年化净息差环比下降7bp 至1.76%。资产端来看，下行趋势仍然延续，生息资产收益率环比下降14bp 至 3.48%，主要是利率因素的影响。 结构因素为正向贡献，贷款占比较一季度末提升1.4 个点至68.2%，零售贷款占比企稳。负债端来看， 存款成本率边际下行10bp 至1.71%，带动整体负债成本率下降10bp 至1.74%。 资产负债：零售贷款下降幅度明显收窄。（1）资产端贷款占生息资产比重提升至68.2%（环比+1.4 个 点），2Q25 单季新增贷款-32.15 亿元，其中对公贷款（不含票据）新增430.78 亿元，但票据压降 432.25 亿元；零售贷款减少30.68 亿元，下降幅度较之前几个季度明显收窄，预计调结构带来的压力接 近尾声。上半年增量贷款主要由卫生、社会保障和社会服务业、按揭和制造业贡献。（2）负债端存款 占计息负债比重升至74.1%（环比+0.2 个点），企业定期存款占比提升至29.9%（环比+0.8 个点）、个 人定期存款占比提升至20.2%（环比+0.1 个点），定期化趋势延 ...

8 月 22 日晚，平安银行披露 2025 年半年报，1H25 实现营业收入 693.85 亿元， 同比降幅收窄至-10.04%；归母净利润 248.70 亿元，同比-3.9%。不良率环比下 降 1bp 至 1.05%，拨备覆盖率 238.5%，环比上升 2pct。 评论： 公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 平安银行（000001）2025 年半年报点评 推荐（维持） 非息收入回暖，零售贷款继续改善 目标价：15.41 元 事项： 全国性股份制银行Ⅲ 2025 年 08 月 24 日 | | | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：贾靖 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 1,940,591.82 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(万股) | 1,940,557.19 | | 总市值(亿 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [8] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 10.10% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching approximately 6.1 billion yuan [2][13] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 13.51% year-on-year, indicating robust profitability [2][5] - Asset quality remains solid, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 489.5% [4][27] Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue structure shows net interest income of 4.6 billion yuan, accounting for 76.5% of total revenue, while non-interest income surged by 57.30% year-on-year to 1.4 billion yuan [2][21] - The bank's net interest margin stood at 2.58%, slightly down from the previous quarter, while the yield on interest-earning assets was 4.42% [15][18] - The bank's provision for loan losses was increased by 148 million yuan compared to the same period last year, maintaining a high safety buffer [2][13] Asset and Liability Management - As of the first half of 2025, the total interest-earning assets amounted to 393.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [22][25] - The bank's interest-bearing liabilities reached 356.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [25][26] - The structure of deposits shows a 3.2% increase in demand deposits year-on-year, contributing to a more favorable funding cost [25][26] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a slight increase in overdue loans to 1.62% [4][27] - The bank's provision coverage ratio indicates strong risk mitigation capabilities, remaining above 489% [4][27] - The non-performing loan ratio for corporate loans improved to 0.56%, while retail loans saw a slight increase to 1.02% [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [30]. Core Insights - The central urban work conference emphasizes urban renewal as a key strategy, which is expected to drive incremental credit and improve asset quality for banks. The focus is on optimizing urban structure, transforming economic drivers, and enhancing quality [6]. - The report anticipates that the implementation of urban renewal policies will lead to increased financing needs, particularly through special bonds and loans, with an estimated bank credit increase of 100 to 200 billion yuan from urban village renovations [6]. - The asset quality of banks is expected to improve due to restrictions on high-rise buildings and the promotion of dilapidated housing renovations, which will alleviate cash flow pressures on real estate companies and reduce the depreciation of real estate collateral [6]. Summary by Sections Urban Renewal and Financing - The conference aims to promote infrastructure upgrades and develop new real estate models, which will stimulate financing demand. Various funding sources, including special bonds and loans, are highlighted as crucial for urban renewal projects [6]. - The report notes that the current ratio of special bonds used as capital is around 10%, indicating significant room for growth [6]. Impact on Banking Sector - Short-term investments in county urbanization, pipeline renovations, and dilapidated housing improvements are expected to generate increased real estate and infrastructure loans, benefiting banks' corporate business [6]. - The report projects that urban renewal will enhance consumer scenarios, particularly in the service sector and digital environments, leading to growth in retail banking consumer loans [6]. Asset Quality Improvement - The report indicates that as of the end of 2024, the proportion of corporate real estate loans and personal operating loans in total loans is 5.07% and 7.36%, respectively, with a noted decrease in non-performing loans for corporate real estate loans by 2.87% year-on-year [6]. - The overall real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with a narrowing decline in sales and prices, although it remains in a bottoming and transformation phase [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that short-term policy catalysts are likely to release infrastructure credit increments, while the long-term development of consumer finance will gradually reveal the advantages of retail banks [6]. - Specific bank stocks are recommended, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Postal Savings Bank of China, among others [6].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the bank's revenue was CNY 33.709 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1% [2] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was CNY 14.096 billion, down 5.6% year-on-year [2] - The bank's operating expenses were CNY 9.055 billion, a decrease of 13.2% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Dividend Distribution - For the year 2024, the bank plans to distribute a cash dividend of CNY 6.08 per 10 shares, totaling CNY 11.799 billion, which is 28.32% of the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders [3] - The interim dividend for 2024 is CNY 2.46 per 10 shares, amounting to CNY 4.774 billion [3] - The final dividend for 2024 is CNY 3.62 per 10 shares, totaling CNY 7.025 billion [3] Group 3: Asset Quality - As of March 2025, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 1.06%, unchanged from the end of the previous year [5] - The provision coverage ratio was 236.53%, with a provision-to-loan ratio of 2.50% [5] - In Q1 2025, the bank wrote off loans amounting to CNY 17.065 billion and recovered CNY 9.425 billion in non-performing assets [5] Group 4: Interest Margin - The net interest margin in Q1 2025 was 1.83%, a decrease of 18 basis points year-on-year [4] - The bank anticipates continued downward pressure on the net interest margin in 2025, but at a slower rate [4] Group 5: Wealth Management - Wealth management fee income in Q1 2025 was CNY 1.208 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [6] - Personal insurance income grew by 38.7% to CNY 0.344 billion, while personal fund income increased by 5.7% to CNY 0.522 billion [6] Group 6: Capital Adequacy - As of the end of 2024, the bank's capital adequacy ratios were 9.12% for core tier 1, 10.69% for tier 1, and 13.11% for total capital [8] - The bank plans to balance internal and external capital replenishment to maintain adequate capital levels [8] Group 7: Deposit Growth - As of March 2025, personal deposits totaled CNY 1,330.883 billion, a growth of 3.4% from the end of the previous year [9] - The average daily balance of personal deposits in Q1 2025 was CNY 1,316.631 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year [9] Group 8: Loan Growth - As of March 2025, personal loan balances were CNY 1,729.046 billion, a decrease of 2.2% from the end of the previous year [10] - Housing mortgage loans increased by 4.1% to CNY 339.434 billion, while credit card receivables decreased by 7.9% to CNY 400.638 billion [10]

Summary of China Merchants Bank Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Merchants Bank (招商银行) - **Date**: May 22, 2025 Key Points Financial Performance - **Net Interest Income**: Increased by nearly 2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, attributed to a narrowing of interest rate cuts, despite a decline in net interest margin by 11 basis points year-on-year [2][7][8] - **Loan Pricing**: Overall slight decrease in loan pricing; corporate loans saw a significant decline while retail loans remained stable or slightly decreased due to regulatory guidance [2][3][6] - **Deposit Growth**: Weak loan demand has led to sluggish deposit growth, with M1 and M2 widening [2][10] - **Wealth Management Fees**: Grew by 10.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, marking the first significant positive growth since 2022, driven by nearly 30% growth in fund sales, wealth management, and trust services [2][13] - **Card Fees**: Card transaction fees and settlement fees declined by 7-8% year-on-year due to weak consumption [2][14] Loan Demand and Credit Quality - **Credit Demand**: Remains weak in Q2 2025; retail loans showed marginal recovery in early May but overall demand is still not significantly improved [3][4] - **Asset Quality**: Retail loan non-performing loans (NPLs) are rising, but the bank maintains a solid provision coverage ratio [3][17][18] - **Corporate Loan Risks**: Concentrated in real estate and related sectors, with overall asset quality in other sectors remaining low [3][19][20] Market Conditions and Economic Outlook - **Trade War Impact**: Limited short-term impact from the US-China trade war observed; however, long-term effects depend on future tariff policies [4][5] - **Interest Rate Trends**: New loan pricing has slightly decreased; retail loan pricing remains stable or slightly down due to regulatory constraints [6][8] - **Deposit Rate Adjustments**: Recent adjustments in deposit rates have raised concerns about potential deposit outflows, but the bank views the changes as beneficial due to its high proportion of demand deposits [9][11] Future Strategies - **Loan Strategy**: The bank will not rigidly increase any specific type of loan but will adjust based on market demand [4][21] - **Wealth Management Focus**: Continued emphasis on wealth management services to enhance fee income, with expectations for further growth in Q2 2025 [13][14] - **Dividends**: Plans for mid-term dividends in 2025 have been announced, with distributions expected in early and mid-2026 [23] Risks and Challenges - **Economic Uncertainty**: The bank faces significant operational pressure due to geopolitical factors and weak loan demand, with Q1 2025 expected to be the most challenging period of the year [15][16][22] - **Retail Loan Quality**: While retail loan quality is under scrutiny, the bank has sufficient provisions to manage potential risks [18][22] Conclusion - China Merchants Bank is navigating a challenging economic landscape with a focus on maintaining asset quality, adjusting loan strategies based on market conditions, and enhancing wealth management services to drive fee income growth. The outlook remains cautious due to external economic pressures and internal loan demand weaknesses.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the banking sector, with expected revenue and net profit growth rates for listed banks in 2025 projected at approximately -1% and 0% respectively [3][9]. Core Insights - The overall revenue and net profit growth rates for listed banks in Q1 2025 were -1.7% and -1.2% year-on-year, reflecting a decline compared to Q4 2024 [3][9]. - The performance of different types of banks varied significantly, with city and rural commercial banks leading in growth due to improved scale and net interest margin, while state-owned banks showed weaker performance [3][10]. - The net interest margin for listed banks in Q1 2025 was 1.37%, a decrease of 13 basis points year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the previous year [3][9]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Overview - Listed banks experienced a decline in revenue and net profit growth rates, with Q1 2025 figures at -1.7% and -1.2% respectively, marking a drop of 1.8 percentage points and 3.5 percentage points from Q4 2024 [3][9]. - The decline in net interest income was attributed to a narrowing interest margin and challenges in volume compensating for price [9]. Asset Quality and Provisioning - The asset quality remained stable, with a decrease in non-performing loan ratios and a reduction in provisioning pressure, as banks continued to report lower provisions in a challenging income environment [3][9]. - The provision coverage ratio for listed banks decreased to 238% in Q1 2025, reflecting a trend of reduced provisioning amid stable asset quality [3][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector's configuration value is enhanced by both fundamental and liquidity factors, with a focus on key index-weighted stocks such as China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3][9]. - The report highlights the potential for mid-sized banks to attract capital for growth, particularly in the context of capital replenishment and profitability [3][9].

Core Viewpoint - The accumulation of OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) floating profits in banks has been largely consumed, primarily due to passive consumption from a weak bond market rather than active selling by banks. The pressure on net interest margins is mainly observed in large banks, and with the alleviation of the "lack of liabilities" issue in Q2, a clearer bottom for net interest margins is expected [1][15]. Group 1: OCI Floating Profit Consumption - Most banks have consumed over half of their OCI floating profit accumulation, with some banks even turning to floating losses. Among the six major banks, one has consumed about half of its floating profit accumulation, while others have consumed around one-third. In total, 25 out of 33 listed banks have consumed more than half of their OCI floating profits, with 7 turning to floating losses [2][5]. - The low performance of bond market investment returns has significantly dragged down the revenue performance of listed banks. In Q1, non-interest income reduced the revenue growth of joint-stock banks and city commercial banks by 3.81 percentage points and 6.42 percentage points, respectively, while the contribution to rural commercial banks dropped from 7.30 percentage points to 4.52 percentage points [2][5]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin Pressure - The pressure on net interest margins and the resistance to recovery are primarily seen in large banks, which have passively shifted to interbank certificates of deposit and interbank fixed deposits due to a "lack of liabilities" in Q1. The average net interest margin for large banks narrowed by 0.10 percentage points to a low of 1.39% in Q1 [15]. - The alleviation of the "lack of liabilities" pressure and the stabilization of interbank deposit scale and prices are expected to lead to a significant easing of net interest margin narrowing pressure for large banks in Q2, reflecting the effectiveness of previous measures to reduce funding costs [15]. Group 3: Retail Loan Risks - Risks in retail loans remain, with no consistent trend of alleviation observed. Banks with a higher proportion of retail loans face greater difficulty in reducing non-performing loan rates compared to their peers, and the speed of provision consumption is faster [9]. - An analysis of three state-owned banks with retail loan ratios exceeding 50% shows a divergence in the direction and magnitude of changes in provision coverage ratios, the proportion of loans under scrutiny, and non-performing loan rates [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a tightening of risk control measures by some banks, leading to a cautious approach in retail lending since April, with the lowest level of new loans recorded since 2006 for the same period [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Loan Performance - In April, new loans reached the lowest level since 2006, with personal loans decreasing by 520 billion yuan year-on-year, which is a larger decline compared to corporate loans that decreased by 250 billion yuan [1]. Retail Lending Trends - The cautious approach in retail lending is attributed to the pressure on retail asset quality experienced last year, with the growth in retail loans primarily driven by mortgage loans in the first quarter [1]. Approval and Disbursement - Since April, there has been a noticeable reduction in the approval rates and limits for consumer loans and business loans, indicating a more conservative lending environment [1].