丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 关注零售贷款资产质量趋势 ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 46 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周市场整体下跌，风险偏好明显回落，银行股小幅回调，但明显跑赢大盘及创业板指数，体 现防御属性。四季度以来市场调整过程中国有行表现最突出，率先创新高，同时中期分红时点 提前至 12 月，推动配置盘加仓。个股层面，国有行呈现轮动式上涨，前期领涨的农业银行本周 调整，但中国银行 A 股大涨，建设银行 A 股、交通银行 A 股等也涨幅靠前，南京银行大股东法 巴银行再度增持，推动涨幅领先。四季度继续看好银行股系统性估值修复，红利配置盘持续加 仓，同时受益市场风险偏好回落。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 关注零售贷款资产质量趋势 2] ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 46 周 [Tab ...

Core Insights - The retail credit market is experiencing a slowdown, with many banks facing challenges in maintaining retail performance metrics amid weak consumer demand and credit needs [1][2][3] Group 1: Retail Credit Trends - Retail loan growth has decelerated, with several banks reporting a decrease in retail loan balances compared to the end of last year [2] - As of the end of September, several banks, including Industrial Bank and Minsheng Bank, reported declines in personal loan balances, with decreases of 2.49% and 3.17% respectively [2] - The overall retail loan demand is insufficient, particularly in mortgage and credit card segments, leading to a downward trend in loan balances [3] Group 2: Customer Segmentation - There is a noticeable divergence in growth rates between high-net-worth and basic retail customer segments, with high-net-worth customers growing at a faster pace [4][5] - As of September, the number of high-net-worth customers at several banks, such as China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank, has increased significantly, with growth rates of 10.42% and 6.7% respectively [5][6] - The trend indicates a shift towards deeper competition in the retail banking sector, focusing on maximizing value from existing customer bases rather than acquiring new customers [7]

Core Viewpoint - The retail banking sector is facing challenges with slowing loan growth, reduced retail performance contributions, and a shift in customer demographics, necessitating a focus on existing high-net-worth clients while managing declining retail loan demand [1][2]. Group 1: Retail Loan Trends - Retail loan growth has slowed, with several banks reporting a decrease in retail loan balances compared to the end of the previous year. For instance, Industrial Bank's personal loan balance was 1.94 trillion yuan, down 2.49% from the end of last year [3]. - As of the end of September, Minsheng Bank's personal loan total was 1.71 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.17% from the end of last year [3]. - Other banks, such as China Construction Bank and Bank of China, also reported slight declines in personal loan balances compared to mid-year figures, indicating a broader trend of reduced retail lending [4]. Group 2: Customer Segmentation - There is a noticeable divergence in growth rates between high-net-worth clients and basic retail clients. High-net-worth client segments are growing faster than the basic retail customer base [6]. - For example, as of September, China Merchants Bank reported a 4.76% increase in retail customers, with high-net-worth clients growing by 10.42% [6]. - Similarly, Ping An Bank's wealth clients increased by 2.4%, while private banking clients grew by 6.7% [7]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - Banks are shifting their strategies to focus on existing customers, particularly in enhancing the value of lower-tier clients to transition them into higher-value segments. This includes leveraging digital channels for customer engagement [8]. - The emphasis is on "collective operation of retail long-tail customers," aiming to optimize customer interactions through various digital platforms and increase the conversion of basic clients to high-net-worth clients [8].

Core Viewpoint - The differentiated development path of regional banks has become a focal point in the banking industry, particularly in the context of narrowing interest margins and credit risk concerns in 2025. Chengdu Bank's third-quarter report exemplifies high-quality growth amidst a complex environment, showcasing its resilience and potential [1]. Financial Performance - Chengdu Bank reported a revenue of 17.761 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.493 billion yuan, up 5.03% year-on-year [1]. - The bank's total assets reached nearly 1.39 trillion yuan, growing by 10.8% since the beginning of the year, maintaining double-digit expansion [4]. - The total loan amount stood at 847.481 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.13% year-to-date and a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, ranking among the top in disclosed quarterly reports [4]. Loan and Interest Margin Dynamics - Chengdu Bank's loan growth was primarily driven by a strong increase in corporate loans, which accounted for 81% of new loans in the third quarter [4]. - The net interest margin for the third quarter was estimated to be between 1.45% and 1.55%, with a significant narrowing of the decline to approximately 3 basis points, contrasting with the broader industry trend of declining margins [4][6]. Risk Management and Asset Quality - As of the end of September, Chengdu Bank's non-performing loan ratio was 0.68%, remaining at a low level within the industry, while the ratio of special mention loans decreased by 7 basis points to 0.37%, indicating improving asset quality [8]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio stood at 433.08%, providing a strong safety net against potential risks, despite a slight decrease [9]. Capital Strength and Future Outlook - Chengdu Bank successfully issued 11 billion yuan in perpetual bonds, enhancing its capital adequacy ratio to 14.39%, which increased by 1.26% quarter-on-quarter [9][10]. - The bank's focus on capital efficiency is evident, with a year-on-year growth of risk-weighted assets at 15.1%, indicating a balanced approach to expansion and quality [10]. - The ongoing strategic development in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle is expected to support Chengdu Bank's high-quality growth, leveraging its unique regional advantages and solid customer base [2].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [3] Core Insights - The future development direction of retail banking should focus on planning adjustments, enhancing credit opening momentum, and adjusting loan risk preferences [1][6] - Retail banks are expected to strengthen their asset under management (AUM) fundamentals and expand "medium-risk - medium-return" retail loans [1][6] - Corporate banking is becoming an important support for retail banks, leveraging regional advantages to establish a "latecomer advantage" [1][6] Summary by Sections 1. Retail Banking's Industry Leadership - Retail banks like Ping An Bank and China Merchants Bank had a significant leadership position before the interest rate cut cycle, with their profitability growing faster than peers [10][11] - The success of retail banking is attributed to technology, teams, and service [14] 2. Current Operating Status of Retail Banks - Retail banking profitability growth has weakened compared to the industry average, with Ping An Bank and China Merchants Bank's net profit growth rates at -3.90% and +0.25% respectively in the first half of 2025 [24][28] - The net interest income and fee-based income of retail banks have faced significant pressure, with Ping An Bank's net interest income declining by 9.33% year-on-year [28][30] 3. Future Directions for Retail Banking - Important planning adjustments include enhancing the "credit opening" effect and tightening high-risk credit loan issuance [1][6] - Retail banks should focus on capturing AUM fundamentals and expanding medium-risk retail loans to balance risk and return [1][6] - Corporate banking is crucial for retail banks, with Ping An Bank and China Merchants Bank showing significant growth in corporate loans [1][6]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The proportion of corporate loans has increased, while retail demand recovery is being monitored. As of mid-2025, the proportion of corporate loans among listed banks rose by 1.65 percentage points from the end of 2024 to 60.2%. The manufacturing sector's loans accounted for 18.5% of corporate loans, reflecting a recovery in the operations of manufacturing enterprises [3][12] - The flexibility in bond allocation has increased, with bond trading helping to stabilize market fluctuations. In the first half of 2025, listed banks saw a significant decline in other comprehensive income and fair value changes due to interest rate fluctuations. Some banks, primarily state-owned, increased bond trading to enhance investment returns and stabilize net profit growth [3][6] - Asset quality pressure is manageable, with a focus on risks in the retail sector. The overall asset quality remains stable, with the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for A-share listed banks holding steady at 1.15% as of Q3 2025. However, the average NPL ratio for retail loans increased by 15 basis points to 1.58% compared to the end of 2024 [3][6] Summary by Sections Corporate Loan Structure - The overall asset structure of listed banks shows an increase in loan allocation, with the loan proportion rising by 0.1 percentage points from the end of 2024. State-owned banks increased interbank asset allocation, while small and medium-sized banks focused more on loan issuance [12][19] - Corporate loans remain the primary focus of credit allocation, with corporate loans accounting for 91.1% of all new loans in the first nine months of 2025. Short-term corporate loans made up 33.7% of new corporate loans [17][18] Bond Investment Preferences - The preference for flexible bond allocation has increased, with banks primarily investing in government bonds and central bank bills. The proportion of OCI accounts has risen, indicating a shift towards more flexible investment strategies [6][3] Asset Quality and Risk Monitoring - The asset quality of the banking sector is stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.15% as of Q3 2025. The retail loan sector has shown slight increases in NPL ratios, necessitating ongoing monitoring of risks in this area [3][6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the credit growth rate, suggesting a shift towards quality improvement, with expectations for a recovery in corporate loan increments by 2026 [5][9]. Core Insights - Credit growth is expected to slow significantly starting in 2024, but the decline in growth rate is anticipated to moderate by 2026, with corporate loans likely to see a year-on-year increase [7][9]. - The relationship between credit growth and economic growth is weakening, emphasizing the need to optimize credit structure and reduce idle financial resources [9]. - The report highlights that the banking sector's total asset growth will outpace loan growth in 2025, driven by government bond supply and fiscal policies [9]. Summary by Sections Credit Growth Forecast - New RMB loans are projected at 21.3 trillion, 23.6 trillion, and 18.9 trillion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with a further estimate of 14.7 trillion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [9]. - For 2026, new loans are expected to be between 17.2 trillion and 17.7 trillion yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 6.3% to 6.5% [9]. Loan Composition - In 2023, the total RMB loans are expected to reach 237.59 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.6% [8]. - Retail loans are projected to grow from 80.10 trillion yuan in 2023 to 82.84 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate decline from 5.7% to 3.4% [8]. - Corporate loans are anticipated to increase from 157.07 trillion yuan in 2023 to 171.01 trillion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.7% [8]. Regional Performance - Regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Shandong are expected to continue outperforming the national average in loan growth due to strong economic performance and support from new policy financial tools [12]. Banking Sector Dynamics - The report notes that state-owned banks are expected to maintain a competitive edge due to lower funding costs and capital injections from the Ministry of Finance [12]. - The net interest margin is in a downward trend, but the rate of decline is expected to slow starting in 2025, with some smaller banks potentially stabilizing their margins by 2026 [13][17]. Asset Quality - As of Q2 2025, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for listed banks is reported at 1.25%, indicating a stable asset quality despite pressures on retail credit [37]. - The report emphasizes that while retail loan NPLs have increased since 2021, corporate loan clearances have improved significantly, providing a buffer against retail risks [37].

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Bank will upgrade its core business system from November 21, 2025, 20:00 to November 23, 2025, 20:00, during which various services will be suspended to enhance service quality [1]. Service Suspension Details - Physical branches will be closed on November 22 and 23, 2025, and will resume normal operations on November 24, 2025 [2]. - Online services including corporate and personal online banking, mobile banking, and ATM services will begin suspending operations from November 21, 2025, 20:00 and will resume on November 23, 2025, 20:00 [2]. - Personal account services such as payments, loans, and investment products will be unavailable during the upgrade, including services linked to third-party platforms like Alipay and WeChat [2]. Services Available During Upgrade - Emergency loss reporting can still be processed through telephone banking [3]. - Credit card repayments can be made through automatic deductions from Ping An debit cards or third-party platforms using non-Ping An debit cards [3]. - Credit card transactions, inquiries, and withdrawals can still occur through non-Ping An POS/ATMs and third-party channels, although some services may be affected [3]. Additional Information - Retail loan repayments via automatic deduction will continue, but timing may vary based on system progress [4]. - Transactions made by Ping An Bank's merchants on November 21 will be settled on November 23 [4]. - Customers are encouraged to contact the 24-hour customer service hotline for assistance during this period [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for Suzhou Bank [5] Core Views - The bank's performance shows steady improvement with revenue, PPOP, and net profit growth rates of 2.02%, 7.74%, and 7.12% respectively for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a positive trend compared to the first half of 2025 [1][2] - The bank is expanding its asset base, with total assets growing by 14.6% year-on-year as of Q3 2025, supported by a 12.9% increase in deposits [2] - The net interest margin has stabilized and slightly increased to 1.34% in Q3 2025, primarily due to a decrease in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the bank's total revenue reached 9,477 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.02% [12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 4,652 million yuan, reflecting a 7.12% increase year-on-year [12] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income growth has declined, with a 0.5% increase in fee income year-on-year, and a significant drop of 14.6% in other non-interest income [2][31] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.83% as of Q3 2025, with a coverage ratio of 420.59%, indicating a solid asset quality [3][12] Capital and Shareholders - The bank's capital adequacy ratio is robust, supported by the completion of the convertible bond issuance, which enhances the capital buffer for business development [3][5] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated at 5,477 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1% [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for 2025 is projected at 7.1, while the price-to-book ratio (PB) is expected to be 0.7 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of regional banks, particularly city commercial banks, is showing significant divergence, with Chongqing Bank becoming a highlight by surpassing the 1 trillion yuan asset mark in Q3 2023, reflecting a broader trend of aggressive asset expansion among city commercial banks [1][2]. Group 1: Chongqing Bank's Performance - Chongqing Bank's total assets reached 1.0227 trillion yuan as of September 30, 2023, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.39% [2]. - The bank's deposits totaled 554.25 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, while loans reached 520.39 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.1% increase [2]. - The bank's net interest margin was 1.32%, down 4 basis points year-on-year, but the decline was less severe compared to previous quarters, indicating improved profitability [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - City commercial banks are increasingly focusing on corporate loans, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, to stabilize their net interest margins amid declining loan rates [1][6]. - The overall asset growth among city commercial banks is notable, with 10 out of 12 banks showing growth rates exceeding 10%, contrasting with 16 banks experiencing growth below 5% [4]. - The divergence in growth rates among banks is attributed to regional economic differences, with banks in economically vibrant areas like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta performing better [4][5]. Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Adjustments - The pressure on net interest margins is prompting banks to adjust their loan structures, reducing reliance on low-yielding bill financing and increasing high-yield corporate loans [6][7]. - Capital constraints are becoming a common challenge for city commercial banks, with many facing declining core tier-one capital ratios due to rapid asset expansion [8][9]. - Banks are shifting their focus from scale-driven growth to efficiency-driven strategies, emphasizing the need for capital-efficient operations and exploring light-capital business models [10].