乐观偏差
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研究 | 王亚坤、张田余:社媒可有效识别官媒乐观偏差,成为资本市场信息“校正器”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 04:01
Core Insights - The research indicates that state-controlled media in China often exhibit a significant "optimistic bias," which can distort the true value signals for investors [1][11] - Social media platforms, such as Dongfang Caifu, serve as effective "correctors" of this bias, allowing investors to access more accurate information about companies [1][11] Research Background - The study analyzes data from 2009 to 2016, comparing 3.84 million posts from social media with 3.7 million reports from traditional media, focusing on their reporting on listed companies [8] - The unique media environment in China, characterized by traditional media's constraints and social media's relative freedom, provides a representative context for this research [8] Research Findings - Traditional media shows a significantly optimistic tone with a mean score of 0.3704 (77.9% positive), while social media has a mean score of -0.2028 (only 13% positive), indicating a negative bias [9] - During periods of positive reporting from traditional media, the correlation with social media's tone decreases significantly, confirming social media's ability to reveal traditional media's optimistic bias [9] - The study found that after the 2015 stock market intervention, the optimistic bias in traditional media increased, while social media's influence remained stable [11] Research Methodology - The research utilized machine learning techniques to analyze over 3 million news articles and 31 million social media posts, achieving over 90% accuracy in sentiment classification [10] - The analysis included various corporate characteristics and stock market trends to assess the relationship between media tone and future market performance [10] Research Implications - The findings highlight the role of social media as a supervisory mechanism in a heavily regulated news environment, enhancing market information efficiency [12] - This research contributes to understanding the interaction between media bias and financial markets, particularly in emerging market contexts [12]
追踪回乡者的第5年:认命,不认输
YOUNG财经 漾财经· 2025-06-18 12:01
Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the unpredictable nature of life, particularly in the context of middle-aged individuals facing job loss and personal challenges, emphasizing resilience and adaptability in the face of adversity [2][3][4]. Group 1: Job Loss and Economic Challenges - The protagonist, a middle-aged individual, experiences job loss and returns to their hometown, highlighting the emotional impact of unemployment and the struggle to find stability [2][4]. - The individual receives unemployment benefits of 1,890 yuan per month for up to 20 months, illustrating the financial support available during difficult times [2]. - The narrative discusses the psychological burden of unemployment, with the protagonist initially feeling a sense of failure but gradually accepting the situation as part of life’s unpredictability [3][4]. Group 2: Personal Growth and Adaptation - The protagonist learns to embrace a more relaxed attitude towards life, realizing that success is not solely defined by employment status [3][4]. - The experience of caring for aging parents and dealing with their health issues leads to a deeper understanding of life’s impermanence and the importance of living in the moment [4][6]. - The protagonist shifts focus to running a second-hand bookstore, which becomes a stable source of income, demonstrating adaptability and resourcefulness in challenging economic conditions [9][12]. Group 3: Financial Perspective and Future Outlook - The protagonist reflects on financial stability, noting that despite economic pressures, their income from the bookstore is sufficient for basic living expenses [12][15]. - The article discusses a shift in values, with the protagonist prioritizing simplicity and letting go of material possessions, influenced by the loss of a parent [16]. - The narrative concludes with a recognition that financial success is transient, and the courage to continue moving forward is more valuable than material wealth [18][19].