乙二醇库存累积施压，无新进利好支撑 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇主力期货价格从3691元/吨下跌至3682元/吨，跌 幅0.24%；华东现货价格从3680元/吨下跌至3665元/吨，跌幅0.41%。基差 （现货-期货）从-11元/吨扩大至-17元/吨，显示现货相对期货弱势加深。 利润方面，油制利润（如乙烯制-DOW化学法从-1086元/吨降至-1250元/ 吨）、煤制利润（从214.69元/吨降至-33.29元/吨）及天然气制利润（从 1400元/吨降至1200元/吨）均显著下降，反映原材料成本压力加剧。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约成交量从216019手减少至186790手，降幅13.53%； 持仓量从294252手减少至276453手，降幅6.05%，表明市场参与度和活跃度 减弱，资金流出迹象明显。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率稳定在61.13%，油制开工率维持在71.18%，煤 制开工率保持在49.34%，均无变化，显示生产端供应稳定，无新增产能扰 动。 需求端 ：下游聚酯工厂负荷持稳于89.42%，江浙织机负荷维持在63.43%， 需求端整体平稳，但无显著提升信号，支撑力度有限。 库存端 ：华东 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report The price of ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the short term due to stable supply, continuous inventory accumulation, stable demand, and potential cost - side fluctuations. The inventory pressure in the entire industrial chain dominates the market, and the risk of price decline is relatively high. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion progress and demand changes [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract dropped from 3,826.0 yuan/ton to 3,723.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.69%, indicating weak market sentiment. The basis widened from - 16 yuan/ton to 87 yuan/ton, showing stronger support for the spot relative to the futures [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The trading volume of the main contract increased by 65.24% to 208,232 lots, and the open interest rose by 4.31% to 307,881 lots, indicating increased market trading activity and potential intensification of long - short divergence [1]. - **供给端**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 65.83%, with the oil - based and coal - based operating rates at 72.38% and 55.64% respectively. The profits of ethylene - based processes and coal - based processes improved, while the profit of natural - gas - based processes declined [1]. - **需求端**: The load of downstream polyester plants remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, with overall stable demand [1]. - **库存端**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 21,000 tons to 753,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang rose by 30,000 tons to 315,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend and increasing port pressure [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract decreased by 103 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.69%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 95 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.49% [4]. - **利润情况**: The profits of various ethylene - based processes increased, the coal - based profit increased, while the natural - gas - based and oil - field associated - gas - based profits declined [4]. - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester plant load, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained unchanged [4]. - **库存与到港量**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 2,100 tons, a 2.87% increase, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 30,000 tons, a 10.53% increase [4]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On December 5, the negotiation center of the East China US - dollar ethylene glycol market moved down, and the decline expanded in the afternoon. - In the Shaanxi region, the spot quotation of the ethylene glycol market was lowered due to the decline in coal prices. - The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol remained weak, and the decline in crude oil and coal prices led to a collapse in cost - side support, and the spot basis continued to weaken. - In the mainstream market, the center of gravity declined, and the offers of holders in the South China market followed the decline, with a cold trading atmosphere [5] 4. Price Trend Judgment The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. The reasons are stable supply, continuous inventory accumulation, stable demand, and potential cost - side fluctuations. High inventory and weak demand dominate the downward pressure on prices [49][50]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term price of ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and inventory depletion may trigger a rebound. Although it is restricted by cost - end pressure and weak demand, signs of marginal supply - demand repair are emerging. If oil prices do not drop significantly and some coal - chemical plants' maintenance plans are implemented, the price may gradually stabilize. However, for an upward trend, continuous improvement in polyester production and sales is required. Attention should be paid to the implementation of coal - based plant maintenance in August and the rhythm of port inventory changes [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped slightly from 4,358 yuan/ton to 4,331 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The spot price in East China decreased by 0.57% to 4,370 yuan/ton, causing the basis to widen from 22 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread widened by 10 yuan to 51 yuan/ton, indicating an expectation of improved long - term supply - demand structure. The main contract's open interest increased slightly by 315 lots to 281,400 lots, and trading volume increased by 3,161 lots to 177,700 lots, showing a slight increase in trading activity [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 60.66%, mainly due to a 3.33 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based route operating rate. The coal - based operating rate increased slightly by 0.27 percentage points. The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. The inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 6.1 tons to 48.06 tons, the lowest in recent months, and the arrival volume increased by 31.67% [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price and Spread**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 0.62%, the basis widened by 122.73%, and spreads such as the 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread showed positive changes. The profits of oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and ethylene - based production were all in the red [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 2.96%, the oil - based operating rate decreased by 5.11%, and the coal - based operating rate increased by 0.46%. The operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival**: The inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 11.33%, and the arrival volume increased by 31.67% [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 11, the negotiation center of the ethylene glycol US dollar market in East China fluctuated. The spot price in Shaanxi remained stable, the main contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose, and the spot basis weakened slightly. The South China market had a firm offer but light trading [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics in East China's main ports [7][9][11].