乙二醇库存累积施压，无新进利好支撑 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇主力期货价格从3691元/吨下跌至3682元/吨，跌 幅0.24%；华东现货价格从3680元/吨下跌至3665元/吨，跌幅0.41%。基差 （现货-期货）从-11元/吨扩大至-17元/吨，显示现货相对期货弱势加深。 利润方面，油制利润（如乙烯制-DOW化学法从-1086元/吨降至-1250元/ 吨）、煤制利润（从214.69元/吨降至-33.29元/吨）及天然气制利润（从 1400元/吨降至1200元/吨）均显著下降，反映原材料成本压力加剧。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约成交量从216019手减少至186790手，降幅13.53%； 持仓量从294252手减少至276453手，降幅6.05%，表明市场参与度和活跃度 减弱，资金流出迹象明显。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率稳定在61.13%，油制开工率维持在71.18%，煤 制开工率保持在49.34%，均无变化，显示生产端供应稳定，无新增产能扰 动。 需求端 ：下游聚酯工厂负荷持稳于89.42%，江浙织机负荷维持在63.43%， 需求端整体平稳，但无显著提升信号，支撑力度有限。 库存端 ：华东 ...

乙二醇库存累积压力主导，预计偏弱运行 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇主力期货价格从3826.0元/吨下跌至3723.0元/ 吨，跌幅2.69%，反映市场情绪偏弱。基差方面，现货华东市场价格持稳于 3810.0元/吨，而期货价格下跌导致基差由负转正，从-16元/吨扩大至87 元/吨，显示现货相对期货支撑增强。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约成交量大幅增加65.24%至208232手，持仓量上升 4.31%至307881手，表明市场交易活跃度提升，可能伴随多空分歧加剧。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率稳定在65.83%，油制和煤制开工率分别维持在 72.38%和55.64%，无显著变化。利润方面，乙烯制各工艺（如SD氧化法利 润增加83元/吨至-1005.64元/吨）和煤制利润（上升28元/吨至214.69元/ 吨）有所改善，但天然气制利润下滑30元/吨至1400元/吨，显示成本端分 化。 需求端 ：下游聚酯工厂负荷持稳于89.42%，江浙织机负荷保持在63.43%， 需求端整体平稳，未见明显波动。 库存端 ：华东主港库存增加21000吨至753000吨，张家港库存上升30000吨 至315000吨，库存累积趋势 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term price of ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and inventory depletion may trigger a rebound. Although it is restricted by cost - end pressure and weak demand, signs of marginal supply - demand repair are emerging. If oil prices do not drop significantly and some coal - chemical plants' maintenance plans are implemented, the price may gradually stabilize. However, for an upward trend, continuous improvement in polyester production and sales is required. Attention should be paid to the implementation of coal - based plant maintenance in August and the rhythm of port inventory changes [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped slightly from 4,358 yuan/ton to 4,331 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The spot price in East China decreased by 0.57% to 4,370 yuan/ton, causing the basis to widen from 22 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread widened by 10 yuan to 51 yuan/ton, indicating an expectation of improved long - term supply - demand structure. The main contract's open interest increased slightly by 315 lots to 281,400 lots, and trading volume increased by 3,161 lots to 177,700 lots, showing a slight increase in trading activity [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 60.66%, mainly due to a 3.33 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based route operating rate. The coal - based operating rate increased slightly by 0.27 percentage points. The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. The inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 6.1 tons to 48.06 tons, the lowest in recent months, and the arrival volume increased by 31.67% [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price and Spread**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 0.62%, the basis widened by 122.73%, and spreads such as the 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread showed positive changes. The profits of oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and ethylene - based production were all in the red [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 2.96%, the oil - based operating rate decreased by 5.11%, and the coal - based operating rate increased by 0.46%. The operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival**: The inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 11.33%, and the arrival volume increased by 31.67% [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 11, the negotiation center of the ethylene glycol US dollar market in East China fluctuated. The spot price in Shaanxi remained stable, the main contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose, and the spot basis weakened slightly. The South China market had a firm offer but light trading [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics in East China's main ports [7][9][11].