1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Ethylene glycol is expected to continue its bottom - side oscillating pattern due to weak costs, inventory accumulation, and soft terminal demand. Attention should be paid to coal price fluctuations and the recovery rhythm of polyester factory orders [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On July 4, ethylene glycol futures and spot prices declined slightly. The settlement price of the main contract dropped 0.25% to 4313 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan/ton to 4350 yuan/ton. The basis widened to 47 yuan, indicating stronger support in the spot market [1] - The 1 - 5 spread narrowed but remained in a contango structure, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased 2 yuan to 52 yuan/ton [1] - All production processes were in deep losses. Coal - based profit was at - 272 yuan/ton, and losses for oil - based, methanol - based, and ethylene - based routes were 106.68 dollars/ton, 1459.34 yuan/ton, and 959.41 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The overall industrial chain operating load remained stable. The total ethylene glycol operating rate was 62.27%, with the oil - based device at 65.91% and the coal - based at 56.79% [1] - The polyester factory load was stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load was at 63.43%, showing no signs of peak - season boost [1] - East China main port inventory increased 3.6 tons to 54.2 tons, with Zhangjiagang inventory rising 1.2 tons to 17.58 tons. The arrival volume decreased 4.41 tons to 8.43 tons, indicating a slowdown in port pick - up [1] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and spot prices decreased slightly, with the main contract down 0.25% and the East China spot price down 0.23% [4] - The basis widened 58.33%, the 1 - 5 spread increased 11.11%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased 3.70%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged [4] - Profits for all production processes were in the red, with coal - based profit rising 3.68%, ethylene - based 1.29%, and methanol - based 1.5% [4] - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester factory, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom loads remained unchanged [4] - East China main port inventory increased 7.18%, Zhangjiagang inventory 7.20%, and the arrival volume decreased 34.35% [4] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 4, the morning East China ethylene glycol US dollar market negotiation was deadlocked, and the afternoon price was stable with no transactions reported [5] - The Shaanxi ethylene glycol spot price remained stable at around 3900 yuan/ton [5] - The South China market offer was stable at around 4420 yuan/ton [5] - A Saudi device outage boosted the market, but with terminal开机下滑, the market had a weak outlook on supply - demand, and the East China price was around 4360 yuan/ton [5] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic device operating rates, downstream polyester device operating rates, East China main port inventory, and total industry inventory [6][8][10]

www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇期货主力合约价格5月20日收于4366元/吨，较前日下跌32元 （-0.73%），现货华东市场价格同步走弱至4500元/吨，跌幅1.64%。 情绪消化后理性预期回归，乙二醇盘面高位回落等待消息指引 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 供应方面，黔希煤化30万吨产能装置4月30日停车检修一个月左右，新疆天 业95万吨产能4月3日-5月6日停车检修，哈密广汇40万吨产能3月21日因管 道问题停车，预计持续到7月，中化学新材料30万吨装置3月23日停车，预 计6月初重启。扬子巴斯夫34万吨装置4月7日检修30-40天，中沙天津38万 吨装置4月21日检修45天左右，中海壳牌35万吨装置5月6日停车检修20天左 右。截至5月15日，中国大陆地区乙二醇整体开工负荷在60.51%（环比上期 下降8.48%），其中草酸催化加氢法（合成气）制乙二醇开工负荷在60.04% （环比上期下降6.71%）。5月12日-5月18日，张家港到货数量约为4.3万 吨 ...