Group 1 - The weekly production of ethylene glycol in China is 407,500 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week, representing a 0.72% rise [1] - The domestic ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate is 67.04%, up by 0.48% week-on-week [1] - As of September 22, the total MEG inventory in the East China main port area is 408,500 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons from the previous period [1] Group 2 - Domestic ethylene glycol supply pressure is gradually increasing, but low port inventory combined with slow recovery in downstream demand leads to a stalemate in the ethylene glycol fundamentals [2] - The market sentiment is mainly affected by the advancement of new installations and weak terminal market conditions, resulting in a generally weak holding intention among traders [2] - Short-term ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust at low levels [2]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The increase in ethylene glycol plant capacity is pressuring the fundamentals, and the rebound height will continue to be limited. Although the futures and spot prices have risen, the accumulation of inventory and the narrowing of the basis may suppress further price increases. The rise in the supply - side operating rate may bring more supply, while the demand side shows no improvement, and the increasing inventory pressure may limit the upside potential of prices. The decline in positions and trading volume indicates insufficient market momentum, and the price may experience short - term fluctuations or even face downward pressure [2][3][24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Market Data**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract increased by 32 yuan/ton to 4424 yuan/ton, with a 0.73% increase. The spot price in East China rebounded by 40 yuan/ton to 4475 yuan/ton. The basis narrowed by 32 yuan/ton to 16 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures price rose faster than the spot price. The position of the main contract decreased by 17,426 lots to 115,385 lots, and the trading volume shrank by 27.6% to 80,018 lots, suggesting that some funds left the market during the price rebound [2][5]. - **Supply - side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.4% to 64.47%, with the coal - based operating rate significantly increasing by 1.1% to 65.12%, while the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 64.13%. Despite the coal - based profit remaining at a deep loss of - 370 yuan/ton for a week, the restart of plants promoted a marginal increase in supply [2]. - **Demand - side**: The load rate of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. Downstream demand was rigid but lacked growth drivers, and polyester procurement of ethylene glycol was mainly for replenishing inventory based on rigid demand [2]. - **Inventory - side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons. The arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, indicating that the port inventory accumulation was mainly due to the decline in shipping volume rather than concentrated arrivals. The rapidly increasing inventory pressure may suppress the increase in spot prices [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price and Spread**: The main contract price of ethylene glycol futures increased by 32 yuan/ton to 4424 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China increased by 40 yuan/ton to 4475 yuan/ton. The basis decreased from 48 to 16 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 9 yuan/ton to - 34 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profit and Operating Rate**: The coal - based profit remained at - 370 yuan/ton. The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.4% to 64.5%, the coal - based operating rate increased by 1.1% to 65.1%, and the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 64.1%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 48.6 tons, the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 5.2 tons to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons [5]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 19, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable, with the market average price around 3990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The supply from Shaanxi remained stable, and downstream purchases were also stable. - On August 19, the mainstream market price increased slightly, but the quotes of holders in South China remained stable. The market supply was sufficient, and the overall trading atmosphere was average, with the current price around 4500 yuan/ton for delivery. - On August 19, international crude oil prices rose and then fell, and the cost - side support was unstable. The domestic operating rate of ethylene glycol increased, but the spot circulation tightened, and the basis of ethylene glycol strengthened. The current negotiated price in East China was around 4464 yuan/ton [6]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11].

8月18日，大商所乙二醇期货仓单2072手，环比上个交易日持平。 消息面 新疆一套15万吨/年的合成气制乙二醇装置已于近日重启并出料，该装置此前于7月中旬停车检修。美国 一套70万吨/年的MEG装置目前已恢复重启，该装置此前于七月底附近停车执行检修。 截至8月18日，华东主港地区MEG港口库存总量50.24万吨，较上周四降低3.21万吨；较上周一增加2.5万 吨。详细来看：张家港19.6万吨，太仓14.7万吨，宁波3.3万吨，江阴及常州8万吨，上海及常熟4.64万 吨。码头发货方面：周内张家港日均发货4400吨附近；太仓两库综合日均发货6900吨；宁波港 （601018）口日均发货3000吨。 港口库存小幅去化至54.7吨，但工厂库存仍在偏高水平，叠加后期国内装置开工也将有部分恢复，乙二 醇供应将略有走高。关注8月后终端订单恢复情况，近期织机开工有触底反弹迹象，下游开工也恢复至 89.4%，乙二醇或呈现供需均小幅增加的情况，短期维持震荡格局不变。 五矿期货： 估值和成本上，石脑油制利润为-348元，国内乙烯制利润-604元，煤制利润696元。成本端乙烯持平至 820美元，榆林坑口烟煤末价格上涨至630元。产业 ...

装置边际恢复叠加港口累库，乙二醇延续震荡运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 从数据变动来看，乙二醇期货主力合约价格连续三日微幅下跌，7月7日报 4305元/吨，较7月4日下跌8元，跌幅0.19%，但期现基差走扩至65元/吨， 体现现货价格僵持背景下期货市场远期情绪弱化。 生产利润方面，煤制亏损维持262元/吨未变，而石脑油制、乙烯制和甲醇 制仍深陷亏损（分别达-109.8、-947和-1437元/吨），高成本工艺的全面 亏损对供给端形成刚性约束。 供需结构上，尽管乙二醇总开工率微增0.2%至62.43%，但煤制装置仅57.2% 的开工水平仍处历史低位，而聚酯工厂负荷89.42%、江浙织机负荷63.43% 均持平前值，需求端持续缺乏弹性。 值得注意的是华东主港库存单周增3.6万吨至54.2万吨，其中张家港库存增 幅达7.2%，而同时段到港量却大幅缩减4.4万吨至8.43万吨，显示终端提货 速度显著放缓，流通环节出现累库压力。 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 当前乙二醇市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Ethylene glycol is expected to continue its bottom - side oscillating pattern due to weak costs, inventory accumulation, and soft terminal demand. Attention should be paid to coal price fluctuations and the recovery rhythm of polyester factory orders [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On July 4, ethylene glycol futures and spot prices declined slightly. The settlement price of the main contract dropped 0.25% to 4313 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan/ton to 4350 yuan/ton. The basis widened to 47 yuan, indicating stronger support in the spot market [1] - The 1 - 5 spread narrowed but remained in a contango structure, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased 2 yuan to 52 yuan/ton [1] - All production processes were in deep losses. Coal - based profit was at - 272 yuan/ton, and losses for oil - based, methanol - based, and ethylene - based routes were 106.68 dollars/ton, 1459.34 yuan/ton, and 959.41 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The overall industrial chain operating load remained stable. The total ethylene glycol operating rate was 62.27%, with the oil - based device at 65.91% and the coal - based at 56.79% [1] - The polyester factory load was stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load was at 63.43%, showing no signs of peak - season boost [1] - East China main port inventory increased 3.6 tons to 54.2 tons, with Zhangjiagang inventory rising 1.2 tons to 17.58 tons. The arrival volume decreased 4.41 tons to 8.43 tons, indicating a slowdown in port pick - up [1] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and spot prices decreased slightly, with the main contract down 0.25% and the East China spot price down 0.23% [4] - The basis widened 58.33%, the 1 - 5 spread increased 11.11%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased 3.70%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged [4] - Profits for all production processes were in the red, with coal - based profit rising 3.68%, ethylene - based 1.29%, and methanol - based 1.5% [4] - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester factory, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom loads remained unchanged [4] - East China main port inventory increased 7.18%, Zhangjiagang inventory 7.20%, and the arrival volume decreased 34.35% [4] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 4, the morning East China ethylene glycol US dollar market negotiation was deadlocked, and the afternoon price was stable with no transactions reported [5] - The Shaanxi ethylene glycol spot price remained stable at around 3900 yuan/ton [5] - The South China market offer was stable at around 4420 yuan/ton [5] - A Saudi device outage boosted the market, but with terminal开机下滑, the market had a weak outlook on supply - demand, and the East China price was around 4360 yuan/ton [5] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic device operating rates, downstream polyester device operating rates, East China main port inventory, and total industry inventory [6][8][10]

Group 1 - The investment rating of the ethylene glycol industry is not mentioned in the report [2][3] - The core view of the report is that the ethylene glycol industry currently shows a pattern of stable supply and weakening demand on the margin The upward movement of the futures price is restricted by the selling pressure from high inventory and cost losses, as well as the downward drag from weakening demand The inventory accumulation caused by high arrival volumes also limits the rebound space If the inventory continues to rise or crude oil prices weaken, the risk of a weakening and volatile market will increase [2][3] Group 2 1. Daily Market Summary - The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract on June 9, 2025, was 4,253 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (0.31%) from the previous value, continuing the previous pattern of being slightly stronger in a volatile market The spot price in East China decreased from 4,385 yuan/ton to 4,365 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan (0.46%) [2] - In terms of spreads, the 1 - 5 spread increased from -9 yuan/ton to -1 yuan/ton (an increase of 88.89%), the 5 - 9 spread increased from -12 yuan/ton to -2 yuan/ton (an increase of 83.33%), and the 9 - 1 spread decreased from 21 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton (a decrease of 85.71%), indicating that the forward contracts are strengthening [2] - In terms of profit, oil - based production remained in a loss state (currently -92.01 US dollars/ton), coal - based production profit remained stable at -218 yuan/ton (no change), and losses in the natural gas - based production routes (including ethylene - based and methanol - based) continued to deepen (ethylene - based production profit was -564.92 yuan/ton, and methanol - based production profit was -1,124.02 yuan/ton), showing that the pressure on raw material costs has not eased [2] - On the supply side, the overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained flat at 54.36%, with the oil - based operating rate at 56.44% and the coal - based operating rate at 50.5% unchanged, indicating a stable domestic production rhythm without new capacity disturbances [2] - On the demand side, the load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was locked at 63.43% [3] - On the inventory side, the inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 57.67 tons to 59.8 tons (an increase of 3.69%), the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased from 23.0 tons to 21.8 tons (a decrease of 5.22%), but the arrival volume increased from 11.5 tons to 13.7 tons (an increase of 19.13%). Combined with the narrowing of the basis and the decline in spot prices, it shows that the increase in overseas shipments has led to a slight accumulation of inventory, and the decrease in Zhangjiagang's inventory indicates accelerated local out - shipments, but the overall supply - demand situation is becoming more relaxed [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract price of MEG futures on June 9, 2025, was 4,253 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan from June 6, 2025, with a daily increase of 0.31% The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 24,295 lots to 208,567 lots, a decrease of 10.43%, and the open interest increased by 4,022 lots to 284,769 lots, an increase of 1.43% [5] - The spot price in the East China market of MEG decreased from 4,385 yuan/ton to 4,365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan (0.46%) The MEG basis decreased from 170 yuan/ton to 157 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan (7.65%) [5] - The 1 - 5 spread of MEG increased from -9 yuan/ton to -1 yuan/ton, an increase of 88.89%; the 5 - 9 spread increased from -12 yuan/ton to -2 yuan/ton, an increase of 83.33%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased from 21 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85.71% [5] - The oil - based production profit remained at a loss of -92.01 US dollars/ton, the coal - based production profit remained at -218 yuan/ton with no change, the ethylene - based production profit was -564.92 yuan/ton, and the methanol - based production profit was -1,124.02 yuan/ton [2][5] - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, polyester factory load, textile loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, ethylene - based operating rate, and methanol - based operating rate all remained unchanged [5] - The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 57.7 tons to 59.8 tons, an increase of 3.69%; the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased from 23.0 tons to 21.8 tons, a decrease of 5.22%; the arrival volume increased from 11.5 tons to 13.7 tons, an increase of 19.13% [5] 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides 6 charts, including the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, weekly inventory statistics of ethylene glycol at the main ports in East China, and the total inventory of the ethylene glycol industry [6][8][10]

www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇期货主力合约价格5月20日收于4366元/吨，较前日下跌32元 （-0.73%），现货华东市场价格同步走弱至4500元/吨，跌幅1.64%。 情绪消化后理性预期回归，乙二醇盘面高位回落等待消息指引 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 供应方面，黔希煤化30万吨产能装置4月30日停车检修一个月左右，新疆天 业95万吨产能4月3日-5月6日停车检修，哈密广汇40万吨产能3月21日因管 道问题停车，预计持续到7月，中化学新材料30万吨装置3月23日停车，预 计6月初重启。扬子巴斯夫34万吨装置4月7日检修30-40天，中沙天津38万 吨装置4月21日检修45天左右，中海壳牌35万吨装置5月6日停车检修20天左 右。截至5月15日，中国大陆地区乙二醇整体开工负荷在60.51%（环比上期 下降8.48%），其中草酸催化加氢法（合成气）制乙二醇开工负荷在60.04% （环比上期下降6.71%）。5月12日-5月18日，张家港到货数量约为4.3万 吨 ...

成本端支撑偏弱 乙二醇反弹高度上预期有限 3月24日盘中，乙二醇期货主力合约震荡上行，最高上探至4476.00元。截止发稿，乙二醇主力合约 报4457.00元，跌幅1.39%。 乙二醇期货主力跌超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 广州期货 乙二醇2505合约运行区间4400-4700 五矿期货 乙二醇反弹高度上预期相对有限 中辉期货 乙二醇盘面震荡，区间操作为主 广州期货：乙二醇2505合约运行区间4400-4700 综合来看，最近港口显性库存高累，但聚酯工厂原料低价下买盘增多。四月份煤制企业装置检修计 划增多，月均负荷或回落至70%附近有望驱动乙二醇去库在15万吨附近。2505合约运行区间4400- 4700。 五矿期货：乙二醇反弹高度上预期相对有限 综合来看，乙二醇装置近期检修有所增量，但供应端压力依旧偏高；需求端相对较好，聚酯及终端 织造开工负荷季节性回升。社库去库，成本端支撑偏弱，近期盘面震荡，区间操作为主。 煤化工多套装置意外减产停车的刺激下，叠加沙特增加检修计划，整体二季度供应预期下调，平衡 表小幅改善，预期盘面在需求端暂时没有负反馈前有小幅反弹的机会，但由于整体的估值 ...