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化工日报:本周EG主港延续累库-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,873 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China EG market was 3,889 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 0.54%; the spot basis in East China EG was 11 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 1,027 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 73.2 tons, unchanged month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 70.8 tons, up 7.5 tons month - on - month. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 9.5 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 1.4 tons. As of November 27, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 70.8 tons, an increase of 3.95 tons from Monday [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load has declined from a high level, and some short - flow oil chemical plants are under great production pressure. Overseas, there are limited changes in overseas ethylene glycol plants. The port inventory is expected to remain stable in the short term, but there are still plans for large Saudi vessels to arrive at the port in early December. On the demand side, the polyester load with low inventory provides some support, but orders are marginally weakening [2] - The production pressure of new capacity is large. As the port inventory rises, the liquidity of goods in the market increases. However, the price of ethylene glycol has dropped to a nearly two - year low, and the negative feedback of high - cost plants has gradually emerged, alleviating the inventory accumulation pressure [3] Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,873 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China EG market was 3,889 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 0.54%; the spot basis in East China EG was 11 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 1,027 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - The inventory of polyester is at a low level, and the load provides some support, but orders are marginally weakening [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 73.2 tons, unchanged month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 70.8 tons, up 7.5 tons month - on - month. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 9.5 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 1.4 tons. As of November 27, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 70.8 tons, an increase of 3.95 tons from Monday [1]
消费旺季不及预期 预计短期乙二醇重心低位调整
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-22 08:09
Group 1 - The weekly production of ethylene glycol in China is 407,500 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week, representing a 0.72% rise [1] - The domestic ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate is 67.04%, up by 0.48% week-on-week [1] - As of September 22, the total MEG inventory in the East China main port area is 408,500 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons from the previous period [1] Group 2 - Domestic ethylene glycol supply pressure is gradually increasing, but low port inventory combined with slow recovery in downstream demand leads to a stalemate in the ethylene glycol fundamentals [2] - The market sentiment is mainly affected by the advancement of new installations and weak terminal market conditions, resulting in a generally weak holding intention among traders [2] - Short-term ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust at low levels [2]
乙二醇装置增量施压基本面,反弹高度继续受限
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 13:41
Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The increase in ethylene glycol plant capacity is pressuring the fundamentals, and the rebound height will continue to be limited. Although the futures and spot prices have risen, the accumulation of inventory and the narrowing of the basis may suppress further price increases. The rise in the supply - side operating rate may bring more supply, while the demand side shows no improvement, and the increasing inventory pressure may limit the upside potential of prices. The decline in positions and trading volume indicates insufficient market momentum, and the price may experience short - term fluctuations or even face downward pressure [2][3][24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Market Data**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract increased by 32 yuan/ton to 4424 yuan/ton, with a 0.73% increase. The spot price in East China rebounded by 40 yuan/ton to 4475 yuan/ton. The basis narrowed by 32 yuan/ton to 16 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures price rose faster than the spot price. The position of the main contract decreased by 17,426 lots to 115,385 lots, and the trading volume shrank by 27.6% to 80,018 lots, suggesting that some funds left the market during the price rebound [2][5]. - **Supply - side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.4% to 64.47%, with the coal - based operating rate significantly increasing by 1.1% to 65.12%, while the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 64.13%. Despite the coal - based profit remaining at a deep loss of - 370 yuan/ton for a week, the restart of plants promoted a marginal increase in supply [2]. - **Demand - side**: The load rate of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. Downstream demand was rigid but lacked growth drivers, and polyester procurement of ethylene glycol was mainly for replenishing inventory based on rigid demand [2]. - **Inventory - side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons. The arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, indicating that the port inventory accumulation was mainly due to the decline in shipping volume rather than concentrated arrivals. The rapidly increasing inventory pressure may suppress the increase in spot prices [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price and Spread**: The main contract price of ethylene glycol futures increased by 32 yuan/ton to 4424 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China increased by 40 yuan/ton to 4475 yuan/ton. The basis decreased from 48 to 16 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 9 yuan/ton to - 34 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profit and Operating Rate**: The coal - based profit remained at - 370 yuan/ton. The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.4% to 64.5%, the coal - based operating rate increased by 1.1% to 65.1%, and the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 64.1%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 48.6 tons, the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 5.2 tons to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons [5]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 19, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable, with the market average price around 3990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The supply from Shaanxi remained stable, and downstream purchases were also stable. - On August 19, the mainstream market price increased slightly, but the quotes of holders in South China remained stable. The market supply was sufficient, and the overall trading atmosphere was average, with the current price around 4500 yuan/ton for delivery. - On August 19, international crude oil prices rose and then fell, and the cost - side support was unstable. The domestic operating rate of ethylene glycol increased, but the spot circulation tightened, and the basis of ethylene glycol strengthened. The current negotiated price in East China was around 4464 yuan/ton [6]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11].
海内外检修装置已逐渐开启 乙二醇震荡格局不变
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-19 06:11
8月18日,大商所乙二醇期货仓单2072手,环比上个交易日持平。 消息面 新疆一套15万吨/年的合成气制乙二醇装置已于近日重启并出料,该装置此前于7月中旬停车检修。美国 一套70万吨/年的MEG装置目前已恢复重启,该装置此前于七月底附近停车执行检修。 截至8月18日,华东主港地区MEG港口库存总量50.24万吨,较上周四降低3.21万吨;较上周一增加2.5万 吨。详细来看:张家港19.6万吨,太仓14.7万吨,宁波3.3万吨,江阴及常州8万吨,上海及常熟4.64万 吨。码头发货方面:周内张家港日均发货4400吨附近;太仓两库综合日均发货6900吨;宁波港 (601018)口日均发货3000吨。 港口库存小幅去化至54.7吨,但工厂库存仍在偏高水平,叠加后期国内装置开工也将有部分恢复,乙二 醇供应将略有走高。关注8月后终端订单恢复情况,近期织机开工有触底反弹迹象,下游开工也恢复至 89.4%,乙二醇或呈现供需均小幅增加的情况,短期维持震荡格局不变。 五矿期货: 估值和成本上,石脑油制利润为-348元,国内乙烯制利润-604元,煤制利润696元。成本端乙烯持平至 820美元,榆林坑口烟煤末价格上涨至630元。产业 ...
装置边际恢复叠加港口累库,乙二醇延续震荡运行
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 14:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current ethylene glycol market shows a stalemate under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Although the high cost of oil - based routes due to firm crude oil prices leads to continuous losses, there is a possibility of marginal recovery in coal - chemical supply with stable coal prices. The downstream polyester factories maintain high loads but have difficulty in passing on inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption momentum is weakening. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price may maintain a range - bound movement, constrained by inventory pressure on the upside and supported by costs on the downside. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of coal - chemical plants and fluctuations in polyester production and sales data [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract has declined slightly for three consecutive days, reaching 4,305 yuan/ton on July 7, a decrease of 8 yuan or 0.19% from July 4. The basis between futures and spot has widened to 65 yuan/ton, indicating a weakening of long - term sentiment in the futures market [2]. - In terms of production profit, coal - based production losses remain at 262 yuan/ton, while naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production are still in deep losses. The overall losses of high - cost processes rigidly restrict the supply side [2]. - In the supply - demand structure, the total ethylene glycol operating rate has slightly increased by 0.2% to 62.43%, but the operating rate of coal - based plants at 57.2% is still at a historical low. The loads of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms are flat compared to the previous values, and the demand side lacks elasticity [2]. - The inventory at the main ports in East China has increased by 3.6 tons to 54.2 tons in a single week, with Zhangjiagang's inventory increasing by 7.2%. Meanwhile, the arrival volume has significantly decreased by 4.4 tons to 8.43 tons, indicating a significant slowdown in terminal提货 speed and inventory accumulation pressure in the circulation link [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract decreased by 8 yuan to 4,305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19%. The trading volume decreased by 48,478 lots to 146,416 lots, a decrease of 24.87%. The open interest decreased by 2,226 lots to 287,398 lots, a decrease of 0.77% [4]. - Spot: The spot price in the East China market remained stable at 4,350 yuan/ton, and the basis widened by 8 yuan to 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.04% [4]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4 yuan to - 20 yuan, a decrease of 25.00%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6 yuan to 46 yuan, a decrease of 11.54%. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 yuan to - 26 yuan, an increase of 27.78% [4]. - Profits: The naphtha - based profit increased by 1 dollar/ton to - 108 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.29%. The ethylene - based profit increased by 147 yuan/ton to - 800 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.50%. The coal - based profit remained unchanged at - 262 yuan/ton [4]. - Operating Rates: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.2% to 62.4%. The coal - based operating rate increased by 0.4% to 57.2%. The oil - based, polyester factory, Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates remained unchanged [4]. - Inventory and Arrival Volume: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 3.6 tons to 54.2 tons, an increase of 7.18%. The Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 1.2 tons to 17.6 tons, an increase of 7.20%. The arrival volume decreased by 4.41 tons to 8.43 tons, a decrease of 34.35% [4]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 7, the East China ethylene glycol US dollar market was narrowly adjusted in the morning and remained stalemate in the afternoon, with the negotiation range of July cargoes at 508 - 510 dollars/ton and no transactions reported [5]. - On July 7, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi region was lowered, with the market average price around 3,880 yuan/ton for self - pick - up [5]. - On July 7, the mainstream market price remained weak, the sentiment of industry players was pessimistic, and the change in the South China market was limited, with the current price around 4,420 yuan/ton for delivery [5]. - On July 7, the ethylene glycol ports had inventory accumulation, the supply side was under pressure, and industry players were bearish on the future market, with the current negotiation price in East China around 4,345 yuan/ton [5]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol futures contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, weekly inventory statistics of the East China main ports of ethylene glycol, and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]
乙二醇日报:成本偏弱叠加库存累积,乙二醇延续底部震荡运行-20250707
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 14:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Ethylene glycol is expected to continue its bottom - side oscillating pattern due to weak costs, inventory accumulation, and soft terminal demand. Attention should be paid to coal price fluctuations and the recovery rhythm of polyester factory orders [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On July 4, ethylene glycol futures and spot prices declined slightly. The settlement price of the main contract dropped 0.25% to 4313 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan/ton to 4350 yuan/ton. The basis widened to 47 yuan, indicating stronger support in the spot market [1] - The 1 - 5 spread narrowed but remained in a contango structure, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased 2 yuan to 52 yuan/ton [1] - All production processes were in deep losses. Coal - based profit was at - 272 yuan/ton, and losses for oil - based, methanol - based, and ethylene - based routes were 106.68 dollars/ton, 1459.34 yuan/ton, and 959.41 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The overall industrial chain operating load remained stable. The total ethylene glycol operating rate was 62.27%, with the oil - based device at 65.91% and the coal - based at 56.79% [1] - The polyester factory load was stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load was at 63.43%, showing no signs of peak - season boost [1] - East China main port inventory increased 3.6 tons to 54.2 tons, with Zhangjiagang inventory rising 1.2 tons to 17.58 tons. The arrival volume decreased 4.41 tons to 8.43 tons, indicating a slowdown in port pick - up [1] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and spot prices decreased slightly, with the main contract down 0.25% and the East China spot price down 0.23% [4] - The basis widened 58.33%, the 1 - 5 spread increased 11.11%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased 3.70%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged [4] - Profits for all production processes were in the red, with coal - based profit rising 3.68%, ethylene - based 1.29%, and methanol - based 1.5% [4] - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester factory, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom loads remained unchanged [4] - East China main port inventory increased 7.18%, Zhangjiagang inventory 7.20%, and the arrival volume decreased 34.35% [4] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 4, the morning East China ethylene glycol US dollar market negotiation was deadlocked, and the afternoon price was stable with no transactions reported [5] - The Shaanxi ethylene glycol spot price remained stable at around 3900 yuan/ton [5] - The South China market offer was stable at around 4420 yuan/ton [5] - A Saudi device outage boosted the market, but with terminal开机下滑, the market had a weak outlook on supply - demand, and the East China price was around 4360 yuan/ton [5] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic device operating rates, downstream polyester device operating rates, East China main port inventory, and total industry inventory [6][8][10]
乙二醇日报:乙二醇库存小幅累积抑制反弹,或延续震荡偏弱走势-20250610
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 11:20
Group 1 - The investment rating of the ethylene glycol industry is not mentioned in the report [2][3] - The core view of the report is that the ethylene glycol industry currently shows a pattern of stable supply and weakening demand on the margin The upward movement of the futures price is restricted by the selling pressure from high inventory and cost losses, as well as the downward drag from weakening demand The inventory accumulation caused by high arrival volumes also limits the rebound space If the inventory continues to rise or crude oil prices weaken, the risk of a weakening and volatile market will increase [2][3] Group 2 1. Daily Market Summary - The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract on June 9, 2025, was 4,253 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (0.31%) from the previous value, continuing the previous pattern of being slightly stronger in a volatile market The spot price in East China decreased from 4,385 yuan/ton to 4,365 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan (0.46%) [2] - In terms of spreads, the 1 - 5 spread increased from -9 yuan/ton to -1 yuan/ton (an increase of 88.89%), the 5 - 9 spread increased from -12 yuan/ton to -2 yuan/ton (an increase of 83.33%), and the 9 - 1 spread decreased from 21 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton (a decrease of 85.71%), indicating that the forward contracts are strengthening [2] - In terms of profit, oil - based production remained in a loss state (currently -92.01 US dollars/ton), coal - based production profit remained stable at -218 yuan/ton (no change), and losses in the natural gas - based production routes (including ethylene - based and methanol - based) continued to deepen (ethylene - based production profit was -564.92 yuan/ton, and methanol - based production profit was -1,124.02 yuan/ton), showing that the pressure on raw material costs has not eased [2] - On the supply side, the overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained flat at 54.36%, with the oil - based operating rate at 56.44% and the coal - based operating rate at 50.5% unchanged, indicating a stable domestic production rhythm without new capacity disturbances [2] - On the demand side, the load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was locked at 63.43% [3] - On the inventory side, the inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 57.67 tons to 59.8 tons (an increase of 3.69%), the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased from 23.0 tons to 21.8 tons (a decrease of 5.22%), but the arrival volume increased from 11.5 tons to 13.7 tons (an increase of 19.13%). Combined with the narrowing of the basis and the decline in spot prices, it shows that the increase in overseas shipments has led to a slight accumulation of inventory, and the decrease in Zhangjiagang's inventory indicates accelerated local out - shipments, but the overall supply - demand situation is becoming more relaxed [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract price of MEG futures on June 9, 2025, was 4,253 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan from June 6, 2025, with a daily increase of 0.31% The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 24,295 lots to 208,567 lots, a decrease of 10.43%, and the open interest increased by 4,022 lots to 284,769 lots, an increase of 1.43% [5] - The spot price in the East China market of MEG decreased from 4,385 yuan/ton to 4,365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan (0.46%) The MEG basis decreased from 170 yuan/ton to 157 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan (7.65%) [5] - The 1 - 5 spread of MEG increased from -9 yuan/ton to -1 yuan/ton, an increase of 88.89%; the 5 - 9 spread increased from -12 yuan/ton to -2 yuan/ton, an increase of 83.33%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased from 21 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85.71% [5] - The oil - based production profit remained at a loss of -92.01 US dollars/ton, the coal - based production profit remained at -218 yuan/ton with no change, the ethylene - based production profit was -564.92 yuan/ton, and the methanol - based production profit was -1,124.02 yuan/ton [2][5] - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, polyester factory load, textile loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, ethylene - based operating rate, and methanol - based operating rate all remained unchanged [5] - The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 57.7 tons to 59.8 tons, an increase of 3.69%; the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased from 23.0 tons to 21.8 tons, a decrease of 5.22%; the arrival volume increased from 11.5 tons to 13.7 tons, an increase of 19.13% [5] 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides 6 charts, including the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, weekly inventory statistics of ethylene glycol at the main ports in East China, and the total inventory of the ethylene glycol industry [6][8][10]
乙二醇日报:情绪消化后理性预期回归,乙二醇盘面高位回落等待消息指引-20250521
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 09:36
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current maintenance of ethylene glycol plants has led to an expansion of supply reduction, and the supply - demand structure is relatively good. Polyester production remains at a high level. The result of the China - US trade negotiation exceeded market expectations, the terminal export outlook has been repaired, orders are advanced, and the stocking demand may increase significantly. Under strong expectations, ethylene glycol should be treated with cautious optimism. Continued attention should be paid to the actual arrival rhythm of goods at ports [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price**: On May 20, the price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract closed at 4,366 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan (-0.73%) from the previous day. The spot price in the East China market also weakened to 4,500 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.64% [2]. - **Supply**: Multiple ethylene glycol production facilities are under maintenance. As of May 15, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 60.51% (down 8.48% from the previous period). From May 12 - 18, the planned total arrival at major ports was about 5.5 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The load of polyester factories was 94.2%. The comprehensive operating rate of domestic weaving was around 63.80%, up 63.80% from last week. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 60.68%, up 0.62% from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of May 18, the inventory at major ports in East China was about 74.3 tons, down 0.8 tons from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The futures main contract price decreased by 32 yuan (-0.73%), and the trading volume increased by 9.62%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 75 yuan (-1.64%). The basis increased by 18.60% [5]. - **Profit**: Coal - based production profit remained stable at - 80 yuan, while ethylene - based and methanol - based production were still in deep losses [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol, oil - based, coal - based, and other production methods remained unchanged. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms also remained stable [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival**: The inventory at major ports in East China decreased by 2.8 tons (-4.08%), and the arrival volume increased by 2 tons (26.32%) [5]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, and the operating rate of downstream polyester plants, with data sourced from WIND [6][8][11].
成本端支撑偏弱 乙二醇反弹高度上预期有限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-03-24 07:07
Core Viewpoint - The rebound potential for ethylene glycol is limited due to weak cost support and high visible inventory levels, despite some demand recovery from polyester factories [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 24, ethylene glycol futures experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of 4476.00 CNY, but closed at 4457.00 CNY with a decline of 1.39% [1]. - The main contract for ethylene glycol is expected to operate within a range of 4400-4700 CNY [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent increases in port inventory levels have been noted, while low-priced raw material purchases from polyester factories have increased [2]. - There is an anticipated reduction in coal-based production due to maintenance plans, potentially driving a decrease in inventory by around 150,000 tons [2]. - The overall supply forecast for the second quarter has been adjusted downward due to unexpected production cuts and increased maintenance plans in Saudi Arabia [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - The market is expected to remain volatile, with a focus on range trading due to ongoing supply pressures and seasonal demand recovery in polyester and weaving operations [4].