乙二醇期货

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乙二醇装置增量施压基本面,反弹高度继续受限
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 13:41
一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差:乙二醇主力合约价格环比上涨32元/吨至4424元/吨,期 现联动上涨,华东现货价格同步反弹40元/吨至4475元/吨。基差大幅收窄 32元/吨至16元/吨,反映出期货涨幅快于现货,市场对远期供需预期有所 改善。 持仓与成交:主力合约持仓量减少17426手至115385手,成交量收缩27.6% 至80018手,持仓持续下滑或暗示部分资金在价格反弹中离场,市场参与度 下降可能抑制短期波动率。 供给端:乙二醇总开工率环比上升0.4%至64.47%,其中煤制开工率显著增 加1.1%至65.12%,油制开工率维持64.13%不变。煤制利润连续一周稳定 在-370元/吨的深度亏损区间,但装置重启仍推动供给边际回升。 需求端:聚酯工厂负荷率稳定于89.42%,江浙织机负荷保持63.43%,下游 需求维持刚性但缺乏增长驱动,聚酯环节对乙二醇的采购仍以刚需补库为 主。 库存端:华东主港库存环比大增5.9万吨至48.57万吨,张家港库存更飙升 40.6%至18万吨,到港量锐减6.7万吨至10.17万吨,显示港口累库主因发货 量下滑而非集中到货,库存压力快速上升或压制现货涨幅。 盘面看,主力合约成 ...
装置边际恢复叠加港口累库,乙二醇延续震荡运行
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 14:07
装置边际恢复叠加港口累库,乙二醇延续震荡运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号:F03115367 投资咨询:Z0019145 手机:18516056442 www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 从数据变动来看,乙二醇期货主力合约价格连续三日微幅下跌,7月7日报 4305元/吨,较7月4日下跌8元,跌幅0.19%,但期现基差走扩至65元/吨, 体现现货价格僵持背景下期货市场远期情绪弱化。 生产利润方面,煤制亏损维持262元/吨未变,而石脑油制、乙烯制和甲醇 制仍深陷亏损(分别达-109.8、-947和-1437元/吨),高成本工艺的全面 亏损对供给端形成刚性约束。 供需结构上,尽管乙二醇总开工率微增0.2%至62.43%,但煤制装置仅57.2% 的开工水平仍处历史低位,而聚酯工厂负荷89.42%、江浙织机负荷63.43% 均持平前值,需求端持续缺乏弹性。 值得注意的是华东主港库存单周增3.6万吨至54.2万吨,其中张家港库存增 幅达7.2%,而同时段到港量却大幅缩减4.4万吨至8.43万吨,显示终端提货 速度显著放缓,流通环节出现累库压力。 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 当前乙二醇市 ...
乙二醇日报:成本偏弱叠加库存累积,乙二醇延续底部震荡运行-20250707
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 14:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Ethylene glycol is expected to continue its bottom - side oscillating pattern due to weak costs, inventory accumulation, and soft terminal demand. Attention should be paid to coal price fluctuations and the recovery rhythm of polyester factory orders [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On July 4, ethylene glycol futures and spot prices declined slightly. The settlement price of the main contract dropped 0.25% to 4313 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan/ton to 4350 yuan/ton. The basis widened to 47 yuan, indicating stronger support in the spot market [1] - The 1 - 5 spread narrowed but remained in a contango structure, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased 2 yuan to 52 yuan/ton [1] - All production processes were in deep losses. Coal - based profit was at - 272 yuan/ton, and losses for oil - based, methanol - based, and ethylene - based routes were 106.68 dollars/ton, 1459.34 yuan/ton, and 959.41 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The overall industrial chain operating load remained stable. The total ethylene glycol operating rate was 62.27%, with the oil - based device at 65.91% and the coal - based at 56.79% [1] - The polyester factory load was stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load was at 63.43%, showing no signs of peak - season boost [1] - East China main port inventory increased 3.6 tons to 54.2 tons, with Zhangjiagang inventory rising 1.2 tons to 17.58 tons. The arrival volume decreased 4.41 tons to 8.43 tons, indicating a slowdown in port pick - up [1] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and spot prices decreased slightly, with the main contract down 0.25% and the East China spot price down 0.23% [4] - The basis widened 58.33%, the 1 - 5 spread increased 11.11%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased 3.70%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged [4] - Profits for all production processes were in the red, with coal - based profit rising 3.68%, ethylene - based 1.29%, and methanol - based 1.5% [4] - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester factory, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom loads remained unchanged [4] - East China main port inventory increased 7.18%, Zhangjiagang inventory 7.20%, and the arrival volume decreased 34.35% [4] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 4, the morning East China ethylene glycol US dollar market negotiation was deadlocked, and the afternoon price was stable with no transactions reported [5] - The Shaanxi ethylene glycol spot price remained stable at around 3900 yuan/ton [5] - The South China market offer was stable at around 4420 yuan/ton [5] - A Saudi device outage boosted the market, but with terminal开机下滑, the market had a weak outlook on supply - demand, and the East China price was around 4360 yuan/ton [5] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, production profits, domestic device operating rates, downstream polyester device operating rates, East China main port inventory, and total industry inventory [6][8][10]
乙二醇日报:乙二醇库存小幅累积抑制反弹,或延续震荡偏弱走势-20250610
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 11:20
乙二醇库存小幅累积抑制反弹,或延续震荡偏弱走势 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇主力期货价格于2025-06-09报4253元/吨,较前值4240元/吨上涨13 元(涨幅0.31%),延续了前期的震荡偏强走势;华东现货价格则从4385 元/吨降至4365元/吨,下跌20元(跌幅0.46%)。同期价差结构显示,1-5 价差从-9元/吨升至-1元/吨(涨幅88.89%),5-9价差从-12元/吨升至-2 元/吨(涨幅83.33%),而9-1价差从21元/吨降至3元/吨(跌幅85.71%), 整体价差格局指向远期合约走强。利润端,油制利润维持在亏损状态(当 前-92.01美元/吨),煤制利润稳定在-218元/吨(无变化),天然气制路 径(包括乙烯制和甲醇制)亏损持续加深(乙烯制利润-564.92元/吨,甲 醇制利润-1124.02元/吨),显示原材料成本压力未见缓解。 供给端:乙二醇总体开工率持平在54.36%,其中油制开工率56.44%、煤制 开工率50.5%均无变动,表明国内生产节奏平稳,无新增产能扰动。 需求端:聚酯工厂负荷持稳于89.42%,江浙织机负荷锁定63.43%。 库存端:华东主港库存从57.67万吨增至5 ...
乙二醇日报:情绪消化后理性预期回归,乙二醇盘面高位回落等待消息指引-20250521
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 09:36
www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇期货主力合约价格5月20日收于4366元/吨,较前日下跌32元 (-0.73%),现货华东市场价格同步走弱至4500元/吨,跌幅1.64%。 情绪消化后理性预期回归,乙二醇盘面高位回落等待消息指引 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号:F03115367 投资咨询:Z0019145 手机:18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 供应方面,黔希煤化30万吨产能装置4月30日停车检修一个月左右,新疆天 业95万吨产能4月3日-5月6日停车检修,哈密广汇40万吨产能3月21日因管 道问题停车,预计持续到7月,中化学新材料30万吨装置3月23日停车,预 计6月初重启。扬子巴斯夫34万吨装置4月7日检修30-40天,中沙天津38万 吨装置4月21日检修45天左右,中海壳牌35万吨装置5月6日停车检修20天左 右。截至5月15日,中国大陆地区乙二醇整体开工负荷在60.51%(环比上期 下降8.48%),其中草酸催化加氢法(合成气)制乙二醇开工负荷在60.04% (环比上期下降6.71%)。5月12日-5月18日,张家港到货数量约为4.3万 吨 ...