1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The PVC market is expected to maintain a bullish trend until the raw material shortage issue is resolved. The high - inventory pattern may gradually reverse due to the reduction of ethylene - based PVC production. The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate at a high level, mainly driven by strong expectations, and is waiting for further fundamental guidance [4][8]. 3. Summary by Directory PVC 3.1 Market Review - In the 11th week, PVC continued to be strong, with VIX hitting a record high. It opened higher at 5400 at the beginning of the week, closed at the daily limit of 5466 on Monday due to geopolitical conflicts, dropped to a weekly low of 4986 on Tuesday due to G7's oil reserve release and Trump's speech, and then rebounded strongly from Wednesday to Friday, reaching a weekly high of 5867 on Thursday and finally closing at 5724, an 8% increase from last Friday's close. The weekly fluctuation range was 4986 - 5867, with an amplitude of 881 [3][13]. - As of Thursday, the main contract's open interest was 880,000 lots, showing a significant reduction compared to the previous period [16]. - As of Thursday, the V05 basis was 30 yuan/ton, and the market shifted to a contango structure, with the basis reaching a maximum of 234 yuan/ton on Monday [19]. - As of Thursday, the V5 - 9 spread was - 13 yuan/ton, and the spread significantly showed a positive arbitrage market [22]. 3.2 Industry Chain Prices - The cost side of oil and coal was strong. As of Thursday, Wuhai calcium carbide was 2500 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 400, up 19%); Northeast Asian ethylene CFR was 1000 US dollars/ton (weekly increase of 150, up 18%); Far - East VCM was 800 US dollars/ton (weekly increase of 290, up 57%). In February 2026, the industrial and commercial electricity price in western Inner Mongolia was 0.43 yuan/ton, ending two consecutive months of increase; the industrial and commercial electricity price in Shandong was 0.58 yuan/kWh, showing a continuous decline for 4 months [25]. 3.3 Profits - As of Thursday, the integrated profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest was 1527 yuan/ton, rising rapidly. The integrated profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 302 yuan/ton, reaching a high level in the same period [28]. 3.4 Supply - This week, the PVC output was 500,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The operating rate has remained above 80% for 5 consecutive weeks. However, the operating rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based production showed differentiation, with the weekly operating rate of ethylene - based production decreasing by 4.6 percentage points to 78%. Next week, Qilu Petrochemical and Yantai Wanhua's total 760,000 - ton plants are scheduled for maintenance [30]. - This week, the PVC output was 500,000 tons, reaching a new high this year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.2%. In March, only Jiyuan Fangsheng, Qilu Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Dongcao's total 640,000 - ton plants are planned for maintenance, and the supply is expected to continue under pressure [33]. 3.5 Domestic Demand - In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of newly - started, under - construction, completed, and sold areas in the real estate industry were - 20.4%, - 10.0%, - 18.1%, and - 8.7% respectively. The decline in sales area has widened for 8 consecutive months. The real - estate transaction area is at a low level in the same period. In 2025, the newly - started area was 590 million square meters, the under - construction area was 6.6 billion square meters, the completed area was 600 million square meters, and the sold area was 880 million square meters [38]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the price indices of newly - built commercial residential buildings and second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities were - 3.05% and 6.07% respectively. The month - on - month growth rate of newly - built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.37%, showing a continuous decline for 31 months since June 2023. The month - on - month growth rate of the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.70%, showing a continuous decline for 32 months since May 2023. All 70 cities have seen price declines for 4 consecutive months [41]. 3.6 External Demand - The current overseas quotes continued to rise, with the FOB quote for calcium carbide - based PVC at 880 US dollars/ton (weekly increase of 245, up 39%) [44]. - In 2025, the PVC export volume was 3.82 million tons (an increase of 1.21 million tons year - on - year, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 46%). This week, the export orders of PVC production enterprises were 24,200 tons [49]. 3.7 Inventory - As of Thursday, the upstream and mid - stream inventory of PVC was 1.78 million tons (weekly decrease of 78,000 tons) [52]. - As of Thursday, the inventory of PVC enterprises was 380,000 tons [55]. - As of Thursday, the large - sample social inventory of PVC was 1.41 million tons [58]. Caustic Soda 3.1 Market Review - In the 11th week, caustic soda rebounded strongly. It opened higher at 2497 at the beginning of the week, touched the daily limit of 2551 on Monday morning but finally closed at 2442 due to the low correlation between the cost side and oil prices. It dropped to a weekly low of 2214 on Tuesday due to G7's oil reserve release and Trump's speech, and then rebounded strongly from Wednesday to Friday, reaching a weekly high of 2645 on Friday and finally closing at 2604. The weekly fluctuation range was 2214 - 2645, with an amplitude of 431 points [61]. 3.2 Capital and Basis - As of Thursday, the weighted open interest of caustic soda was 220,000 lots [64]. - As of Thursday, the 05 basis of caustic soda was - 442 yuan/ton, and the spot market was weak, with the basis remaining weak [67]. 3.3 Profits - As of Thursday, the gross profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 233 yuan/ton. The price of liquid chlorine was 300 yuan/ton [70]. 3.4 Supply - This week, the caustic soda output was 844,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 85%. Maintenance will continue next week, and the output is expected to slightly decrease to about 830,000 tons [72]. 3.5 External Demand - In 2025, the caustic soda export volume was 4.1 million tons (a cumulative year - on - year increase of 34%). Overseas chlor - alkali plants are reducing their loads, and there is an expectation of an increase in short - term export orders [75]. 3.6 Inventory - The current caustic soda inventory in the factory was 530,000 tons [78].