Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai Nickel was oscillating strongly, mainly influenced by the broader market. The expectation of interest rate cuts in September has improved at the macro - level, and there is no obvious change in the fundamental logic. The second - phase benchmark price in Indonesia in August was slightly adjusted downwards. There was rainfall affecting shipments in some mining areas in the Philippines this week, and there is an expectation of rainfall in September. Nickel iron remained strong intraday, with supply price support continuing. The salt factories in the new energy chain have been relatively strong recently, and the MHP market is in short supply. Stainless steel also showed a strong trend intraday, with spot prices rising. Attention should be paid to the sentiment trend as it approaches the peak demand season in September and October [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the potential revision of the HPM formula by APNI in Indonesia, the shortening of the nickel ore quota license period in Indonesia, the potential increase in stainless - steel demand from the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower station construction, and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in September. Negative factors include stainless steel entering the traditional off - season with slow inventory reduction, high pure nickel inventory, seasonal increase in nickel ore inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, and South Korea's potential anti - dumping duties on Chinese hot - rolled products [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel** - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product sales price decline and inventory impairment, strategies include selling Shanghai Nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and selling call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about raw material price increases for future production procurement, strategies include buying Shanghai Nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, selling put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buying out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product sales price decline and inventory impairment, strategies include selling stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and selling call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about raw material price increases for future production procurement, strategies include buying stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, selling put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buying out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3]. 3.3 Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data** - The latest price of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 120,310 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of Shanghai Nickel continuous contracts 1, 2, and 3 increased by 0.59%, 0.54%, and 0.54% respectively. The LME Nickel 3M price is 14,975 US dollars/ton, up 0.61%. The trading volume is 119,179 lots, and the open interest is 110,337 lots. The warehouse receipt volume decreased by 1.15% to 22,292 tons, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 34.8% to - 1,550 yuan/ton [6]. - **Stainless - Steel Disk Data** - The latest price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,880 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of stainless - steel continuous contracts 1, 2, and 3 increased by 1.02%, 0.90%, and 0.89% respectively. The trading volume is 156,339 lots, and the open interest is 141,999 lots. The warehouse receipt volume decreased by 0.23% to 101,687 tons, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 18.06% to 590 yuan/ton [7]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory** - Domestic social inventory of nickel is 40,872 tons, a decrease of 1,019 tons. LME nickel inventory is 209,748 tons, an increase of 150 tons. Stainless - steel social inventory is 933.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons. Nickel pig iron inventory is 33,111 tons, a decrease of 304 tons [8].