Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that precious metals are gaining traction amid recession expectations, with gold and silver prices rising by 1.4% and 3.4% respectively, while industrial metals show mixed performance [1][3] - The energy and chemical sectors are experiencing a downturn, with crude oil and fuel prices dropping by 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively, and chemical products like PVC and methanol seeing declines of 4.5% to 5.4% [1] - A significant capital outflow of 14.3 billion yuan from commodity indices has been noted, with the precious metals sector attracting over 2.7 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets [1] Group 2 - The report highlights the ongoing volatility in the oil market, driven by geopolitical tensions and mixed signals regarding military actions in the Gulf region, which contribute to fluctuating prices [2] - The market is transitioning from a narrative of high oil prices driving inflation to one where high oil prices may suppress demand and lead to economic slowdown, with upcoming employment data expected to validate this shift [3] - The report notes that the volatility of gold remains high, with a historical volatility rate of 42.7, suggesting that investors should exercise patience in positioning within the precious metals market [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market has declined and continues to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. Supply is sufficient with increased production scheduling in March and rising domestic inventories. The nickel ore price is rising, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia is having an impact. The nickel - iron price is weakly stable, stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and new - energy vehicle sales data is in line with expectations but with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The overall view is bearish, but the basis is bullish, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions. The conclusion is that SHFE Nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The nickel ore price is firm, the nickel - iron price is weakly stable, and the cost line provides strong support. The stainless - steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and the demand is weak. The overall view is neutral, the basis is bullish, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - sloping 20 - day moving average. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2605 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless - Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On March 26, the SHFE nickel main contract was at 135,860, down 270 from March 25; the LME nickel was at 17,165, down 180; the stainless - steel main contract was at 14,390, down 100. The nickel index was at 135,950, down 100, and the cold - rolled index was at 13,837, down 153 [10]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 139,350 on March 26, up 1550; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 142,050, up 1050; 1 imported nickel was at 136,450, up 1750; nickel beans were at 139,100, up 1800. Cold - rolled 304*2B prices in different regions remained unchanged [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - **As of March 20**: The SHFE nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,690 tons. The futures inventory increased by 228 tons, and the overall inventory decreased by 20 tons [12]. - **On March 26**: LME nickel inventory was 282,240, down 216; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 57,593, down 12; the total inventory was 339,833, down 228 [13]. Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - **As of March 20**: Wuxi inventory was 598,700 tons, Foshan inventory was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 693,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,400 tons [17]. - **On March 26**: The stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 45,676, an increase of 2139 from March 25 [18]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - **Nickel Ore**: On March 26, the CIF price of red - soil nickel ore with Ni1.5% was 79.5 dollars/wet ton, down 0.5; Ni0.9% was 35 dollars/wet ton, unchanged. The shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port decreased [21]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 1085.52 yuan/nickel point, up 0.15; the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3650 yuan/ton, unchanged [21]. Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost was 14,146, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,086, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 17,977 [23]. Nickel Import Cost The import price was converted to 134,277 yuan/ton [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - **沪镍**: The external market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, continuing to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. Supply increased in March, domestic inventory continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. The price of nickel ore continued to rise, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. The price of nickel - iron was weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. The inventory of stainless steel continued to decline slightly, and the demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, but the decline in the off - season was relatively large. The overall situation was bearish. The basis was bullish, the inventory was bearish, the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing downwards (bearish), and the net long position of the main contract decreased (bullish). The conclusion was that the Shanghai nickel 2605 contract would fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. In the short term, the price of nickel ore was firm, the demand in Indonesia was strong, the price of nickel - iron was weakly stable, and the cost line had strong support. The inventory of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The overall situation was neutral. The basis was bullish, the inventory was neutral, the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing upwards (bullish). The conclusion was that the stainless steel 2605 contract would have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures**: On March 25, the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,130, up 2,650 from March 24; the LME nickel was 17,345, up 365; the stainless steel main contract was 14,490, up 200. The nickel index was 136,050, up 2,200, and the cold - rolled index was 13,990, up 191 [10]. - **Spot**: On March 25, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 137,800, up 1,650; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 141,000, up 1,700; 1 imported nickel was 134,700, up 1,800; nickel beans were 137,300, up 1,800. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of March 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,690 tons, a decrease of 20 tons and an increase of 228 tons respectively. On March 25, LME nickel inventory was 282,456, a decrease of 432; nickel warehouse receipts were 57,605, a decrease of 401; the total inventory was 340,061, a decrease of 833 [12][13]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 693,700 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons. On March 25, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 43,537, a decrease of 62 [17][18]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On March 25, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 35 US dollars per wet ton, up 0.5. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton was 1,085.37 yuan per nickel point, down 0.84; the price of low - nickel wet ton was 3,650 yuan per ton, unchanged [21]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 14,131, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,078, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 17,841 [23]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 135,411 yuan per ton [25].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined in the provided content [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation which lacks clear meaning [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★★★, indicating a more distinct uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The research focuses on the market conditions and trends of various non - ferrous metals, analyzing factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and geopolitical events, and providing corresponding price trend judgments and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper decreased in volume and closed with a negative candle, and overnight copper prices rebounded with Trump's unilateral release of US - Iran negotiation news. This week, key indicators are limited, and attention should be paid to whether a preliminary passage agreement can be reached after the one - month stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz. The decline in copper prices attracted mid - and downstream buyers, and some refined copper rod enterprises actively replenished stocks. In the short - and medium - term critical period of the war game, if an effective directional agreement is temporarily reached, the short - term market fluctuations may be similar to the impact of reciprocal tariffs last year. Technically, the strong support for copper prices is first at 91,000, and attention should also be paid to the MA40 weekly moving average [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China were 140 yuan, 170 yuan, and 170 yuan respectively. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased slightly compared with last Thursday. As the aluminum price fell, the inventory and spot market feedback improved. Attention should be paid to whether this can be sustained. High energy prices suppress the economic outlook and interest rate path, and market sentiment fluctuates with war news. Shanghai aluminum should pay attention to the key support at 23,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with the aluminum price, and the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 1,000 yuan under the swinging macro - sentiment. The operating capacity of domestic alumina is temporarily stable, and the surplus situation has improved. However, two alumina plants in Guangxi are about to enter the trial production stage, and imported supplies will also increase, so the surplus prospect remains unchanged. In the short term, alumina oscillates and waits for the guidance of Guinea's mining policy [3] Zinc - Trump announced the postponement of the strike on Iranian power plants and set a 5 - day negotiation period. The market saw a "TACO" again, and zinc prices rebounded following the non - ferrous metal sector. However, there are still concerns about the marginal tightening of liquidity. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US recession to 30%. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots exceeded 250,000 tons, and Shanghai zinc is in an overall surplus and pressured state. Overseas mines are tight and energy prices are high, so the production increase space of zinc ingots is limited, and the supply - side pressure is mainly in the domestic market. Without a significant rebound in TC, the smelting cost line of domestic smelters will still provide strong support for the disk. Demand is gradually showing peak - season characteristics, and Shanghai zinc is expected to gradually enter a range consolidation, with the price range temporarily at 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum - Overseas aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and domestic aluminum ingots are still in the stage of price - cut destocking. The surplus dominates the weak operation of lead prices. Against the background of high by - product prices, the comprehensive cost of primary aluminum smelters is low, and the center of the disk is under pressure. The profit of recycled aluminum is not good, and some smelters still reduce production or postpone resuming production. Shanghai aluminum has strong support at the 16,200 yuan/ton line. However, the import profit is good, overseas low - cost crude aluminum is supplemented to the domestic market, and the price of waste batteries is hard to rise significantly. Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a low level [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated, market trading declined, and positions slowly recovered. The strong US dollar exerts overall pressure on the market. The demand for stainless steel in the peak season is lower than expected, and downstream only replenishes stocks for rigid needs, with light trading. Due to macro uncertainties, the futures oscillate weakly and are difficult to drive the spot market. Although the social inventory has decreased slightly, it is still at a high level and the destocking is slow; steel mills maintain high production schedules, and the supply pressure is large. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 6,550 yuan, the discount of imported nickel is 150 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel pig iron per unit has dropped nearly 10 yuan, closing at 1,086.5 yuan per unit. The rebound of upstream prices continues to push up the mid - stream prices and form cost support. In the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. Nickel and stainless steel have high inventories, and attention should be paid to further changes in Indonesian policies, with an overall tendency to weak oscillation [7] Tin - Shanghai tin decreased in volume and oscillated during the session. The short - term trading rhythm is guided by the stock market, and the core of the market is still the Middle East war situation. On the supply side, China's imports of tin concentrates in the first two months have improved significantly year - on - year, and the production of tin concentrates in major producing countries has been continuously stable. The mainstream quotes of domestic tin concentrates from third - party sources have gradually recovered. On this basis, it is generally expected that the domestic refined tin production will return to normal levels in March. On the consumption side, as the tin price falls, it boosts the domestic replenishment willingness, and the Middle East war situation has a certain impact on the normal production of the low - and medium - end integrated circuit industry chain in Southeast Asia. The tin market may be strong domestically and weak overseas, and in terms of trend, the price may still seek support at the 300,000 integer mark and the medium - and long - term weekly K - line moving average. Mid - and downstream enterprises should make rigid purchases at the right time, and the 2605 option can appropriately focus on the direction of selling out - of - the - money put options [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate oscillates strongly, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 100 tons to 99,000 tons, the smelter inventory increased by 300 tons to 16,600 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 500 tons to 44,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 36,000 tons. The overall destocking speed has slowed down, and the change in inventory structure is worthy of attention. The decline in smelter inventory has slowed down, and the confidence of traders in hoarding goods has wavered, and they have started to sell to downstream. From the perspective of production, the production of lithium carbonate returned to a high level at the beginning of March. The weekly production has continuously reached new highs, waiting for the inflection point of inventory. The latest quote of Australian ore is 2,045 US dollars, and the ore - end quote has loosened. Technically, the lithium market is resistant to decline and should be considered from an oscillatory perspective [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, and the upward momentum has weakened; the spot silicon price in East China remained stable compared with yesterday. On the supply side, the weekly operating rate in Xinjiang has remained stable, and leading enterprises have no new production plans; there is also no large - scale resumption of production willingness in Yunnan and Sichuan production areas, and the overall supply side is relatively stable. On the demand side, the weekly production of polysilicon is flat, the price has dropped significantly, the industry is in the loss range, and with the expectation of the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy in April, the export orders of organic silicon may weaken periodically, and the overall downstream demand is weak. In general, the current industrial silicon market presents a situation of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory continues to run at a high level, maintaining fluctuations around 550,000 tons. It is expected that the silicon price will continue to oscillate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to run weakly, closing at 35,730 yuan/ton. On the demand side, affected by the cancellation of the export tax rebate, coupled with the limited large - scale start of domestic demand, the component production schedule in April is expected to be lowered, and the component inventory in March has increased significantly compared with last month, providing weak support for upstream raw materials. In the spot market, the polysilicon quote continued to be lowered. The SMM's N - type dense material quote is 40,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with yesterday. Recently, the sales volume of spot enterprises has increased, driving the inventory to decline marginally. The futures price has approached 35,000 yuan/ton, and according to the public cost calculation, it is close to the cash cost of leading enterprises. Although the medium - term trend is still bearish, the short - term downward space is limited [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai nickel 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [2] - The stainless steel 2605 contract is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Shanghai Nickel - **Fundamentals**: External markets rebounded, and the international situation remains the main influencing factor. In March, production scheduling increased, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and market supply was sufficient. Nickel ore prices continued to rise, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. The strong demand in Indonesia was in sharp contrast to the cold trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel - iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of Shanghai nickel was 137,850, and the basis was 4,870, indicating a bullish signal [2] - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 282,792, a decrease of 720, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 57,632, an increase of 942, indicating a bearish signal [2] - **Market trend**: The closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish signal [2] - **Main positions**: The main positions were net long, and the long positions increased, indicating a bullish signal [2] 2. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of stainless steel remained unchanged. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, nickel - iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly, and demand was weak [4] - **Basis**: The average price of stainless steel was 15,062.5, and the basis was 1,027.5, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts were 41,665, an increase of 827, showing a neutral signal [4] - **Market trend**: The closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, showing a neutral signal [4] 3. Price Overview - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel main contract price on March 23 was 132,980, a decrease of 180 compared to March 20. The London nickel price was 17,200, an increase of 315 compared to March 20. The SMM1 electrolytic nickel spot price was 137,850, a decrease of 50 compared to March 20 [10] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel main contract price on March 23 was 14,035, a decrease of 30 compared to March 20. The cold - rolled coil prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged from March 20 [10] 4. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,690 tons, a decrease of 20 tons and an increase of 228 tons respectively [12] - On March 23, LME nickel inventory was 282,792, a decrease of 720 compared to March 20. The nickel warehouse receipts were 57,632, an increase of 942 compared to March 20. The total inventory was 340,424, an increase of 222 compared to March 20 [13] 5. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 693,700 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons compared to the previous period [17] - On March 23, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 41,665, an increase of 827 compared to March 20 [18] 6. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 US dollars per wet ton on March 23, unchanged from March 20. The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from March 20 [21] - The high - nickel (8 - 12) price per nickel point was 1,086.49 yuan on March 23, a decrease of 0.59 compared to March 20. The low - nickel (below 2) price per ton was 3,675 yuan, unchanged from March 20 [21] 7. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 14,156, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,971, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 17,850 [23] 8. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 134,395 yuan per ton [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current global market is significantly affected by the Iran-US conflict, leading to increased volatility in various asset prices. Central banks around the world are cautious about monetary policy, and inflation concerns are rising. Different industries are facing different supply and demand situations and price trends, and investors need to pay attention to geopolitical risks and market changes [4][8][36] - In the short term, due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the impact of inflation expectations, the prices of most commodities will maintain a high - volatility pattern. Some industries may face short - term price corrections, but in the long term, the upward trend of the commodity market may not end [36][42] Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: Trump's statement on the Iran - US potential agreement and Iran's denial, changes in Fed interest rate hike expectations, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's response to Trump's directive, and the significant increase in WuXi AppTec's net profit in 2025 [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Iran - US conflict affects global risk appetite, inflation causes the decline of Fed rate - cut expectations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the change of the war situation and control risks [4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The decline of the main contracts of treasury bonds, the issuance of central bank bills in Hong Kong, the rise of the US 2 - year treasury bond yield, and the net withdrawal of funds by the central bank [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic data at the beginning of the year improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. Inflation pressure may put pressure on the bond market, and it is expected that the bond market will be weakly volatile in the short term [6] Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The price changes of gold and silver in the domestic and international markets, the Fed's decision to maintain the interest rate, and the different stances of Fed officials on interest rate hikes [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The escalation of the Iran - US war leads to inflation concerns, central banks are cautious about monetary policy, and the strengthening of the US dollar and US bond yields suppresses the valuation of precious metals. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper first declined and then rose due to the Middle East situation, the increase of LME inventory, the decrease of domestic social inventory, and the positive downstream procurement [10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the Middle East situation has eased, the conflict may continue. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment has improved. The copper price may continue to test the bottom in the short term [11] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum rose due to the improvement of market risk preference, the decrease of inventory, and the increase of downstream procurement [12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market risk sentiment has not reversed, and the supply concern has eased. The overseas supply is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. The aluminum price may be weakly volatile in the short term [13] Zinc - **Market Information**: The decline of zinc price, the change of inventory, and the active replenishment of downstream enterprises [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry is in a weak situation, the zinc price is in a downward trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream replenishment, Fed policy, and geopolitical conflicts [15] Lead - **Market Information**: The rise of lead price, the change of inventory, and the improvement of smelting enterprise operation [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and there are both support and pressure factors. The volatility of lead price increases, and there is a possibility of further decline [16] Nickel - **Market Information**: The decline of nickel price, the stability of spot premium, and the stability of raw material price [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, nickel price may follow the weak trend, but in the medium term, the supply - demand improvement supports the price. It is recommended to operate in the range [18] Tin - **Market Information**: The decline of tin price, the decrease of inventory, and the improvement of production and demand [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, the demand is weakly repaired, and the tin price is expected to be weakly volatile [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The decline of the spot index of lithium carbonate and the rise of the futures contract price [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are strong, and the short - term price is supported. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes of position, industry events, and spot premium [21] Alumina - **Market Information**: The rise of alumina index, the change of basis, and the increase of inventory [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but oversupplied in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The decline of stainless steel price, the change of inventory, and the stability of raw material price [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel market is in a game situation of weak macro and demand and strong support from the ore end. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The decline of cast aluminum alloy price, the decrease of inventory, and the narrowing of the price difference [26] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported, and the demand is expected to improve, so the short - term price has certain support [28] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The rise of steel price, the change of inventory, and the change of spot price [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state, the demand is marginally improved, and the inventory is gradually reduced. It is necessary to pay attention to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price on cost [31] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The rise of iron ore price, the change of inventory, and the change of basis [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level, the demand is gradually recovering, and the ore price is expected to be volatile at a high level [33] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The sharp rise of coking coal and coke prices, the change of spot price, and the change of basis [34] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment, and the black sector may be supported. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal and coke are relatively loose, and it is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see [36][37] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The rise of glass and soda ash prices, the change of inventory, and the change of position [38][39] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be widely volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be low - level and widely volatile [38][40] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The rise of ferrosilicon price, the impact of typhoon on the Australian mining area, and the change of basis [41] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is affected by stagflation and recession, and the black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to the cost and supply - side factors [42][43] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The rise of industrial silicon price, the decline of polysilicon price, and the change of inventory [44][47] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of industrial silicon is slightly increased, the demand improvement is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. The polysilicon market is weak, and the price is expected to find the bottom in a volatile way [46][48] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rise of butadiene rubber, the different views of long and short positions on natural rubber, and the change of tire enterprise operation and inventory [50][51][52] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and hold the hedging position [54] Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The rise of crude oil and refined oil prices [55] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish positions on crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the cross - regional spread of INE - WTI [56] Methanol - **Market Information**: The change of methanol spot and futures prices [57] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol has included the geopolitical premium, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices [58] Urea - **Market Information**: The change of urea spot and futures prices [59] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and it is recommended to short at high prices. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [60] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The change of pure benzene and styrene prices, the change of basis, and the change of supply and demand [61] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, the supply is relatively wide, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [62] PVC - **Market Information**: The rise of PVC price, the change of cost, and the change of supply and demand [63] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply of PVC is at a high level, but there are expectations of production reduction and maintenance. The demand is gradually recovering, and the price may rise in the short term [65] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The rise of ethylene glycol price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [66] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, the demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [67] PTA - **Market Information**: The rise of PTA price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [68] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [69][70] p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The rise of p - xylene price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [71] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, the downstream demand is increasing, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The rise of PE price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [73] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is affected by the Middle East situation. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [74] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The rise of PP price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [75] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of PP is expected to be stable, the supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term price is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term price is affected by production mismatch [77] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The decline of pig price, the weak downstream demand, and the difficulty of farmers' sales [79] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is concentrated, the demand is limited, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [80] Eggs - **Market Information**: The stability of egg price, the normal supply, and the stable market sales [81] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the supply is still high. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and the long - term price may decline. It is recommended to short on rebounds [82] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The adjustment of the predicted planting area of US corn and soybeans, the change of US soybean export data, and the change of soybean inventory and crushing rate [83] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The USDA report is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the impact of geopolitical risks on protein meal prices [84] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The policies and production data of Indonesia and Malaysia's palm oil, the change of domestic and international palm oil inventory, and the export data of Malaysia [85] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rise of crude oil price drives the rise of oil and fat prices. In the medium term, the price of oils and fats is expected to rise [86] Sugar - **Market Information**: The change of domestic and international sugar production and import data, and the prediction of global sugar production [87] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The raw sugar price is at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price, and there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new sugar - cane season. The domestic sugar price may rebound, and it is recommended to buy on dips [88] Cotton - **Market Information**: The change of domestic and international cotton import and export data, the increase of import quota, the change of spinning mill operation and inventory, and the prediction of global cotton production [89] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase of import quota is short - term negative for Zhengzhou cotton price and positive for US cotton price. In the medium term, the downstream operation is improving, and it is recommended to buy on dips [90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience short - term shock adjustments, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 132,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,6885 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 180 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 179,706 lots, an increase of 6,570 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 52,192 lots, a decrease of 6,410 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 283,512 tons, a decrease of 258 tons [2] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 63,661 tons (weekly), a decrease of 20 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants are 18,360 tons, a decrease of 402 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 57,632 tons, an increase of 942 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 137,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 137,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 4,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan [2] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 182.99 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.46 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 1.9928 million tons, a decrease of 1.3467 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 7.9266 million tons (weekly), a decrease of 0.6568 million tons [2] - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 75.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8581 million tons, an increase of 110,900 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,200 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, stated that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and use various tools to maintain sufficient liquidity [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance will allocate 250 billion yuan to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones and increase direct and inclusive policies for consumers [2] - Trump threatened to limit Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours and destroy its power plants. Sources said the US is planning to seize Iran's "nuclear reserves" [2] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - The Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is on a downward trend; Indonesia's RKAB plan is to adjust the quota, with an increase of up to about 25% - 30%, which is expected to meet domestic nickel ore demand and ease supply concerns [2] - The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large. Recently, the nickel price has been adjusted in a shock, and there is a profit margin in production. It is expected that the output of refined nickel will rise again [2] - The profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and production has gradually resumed after the festival; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [2] - The domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, and the spot premium remains stable; the overseas LME inventory decreases slightly, and the spot premium is adjusted downward [2] - Technically, the position increases while the price is adjusted, and the divergence between long and short positions increases [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel, there are contradictions between the macro - situation and the mine end, intensifying the short - term long - short game. The Middle - East conflict and overseas inflation expectations put pressure on the non - ferrous metals market, but the mine end and wet - process supply contradictions support nickel prices in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the covered strategy. Focus on the Indonesian nickel mine contradictions and the implementation of supplementary quotas [2]. - For stainless steel, there is overseas macro - suppression, but real - cost support. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the cost may limit the downward elasticity in the short term. Mid - term nickel - steel arbitrage opportunities can be considered [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions Analysis 3.1.1 Shanghai Nickel - Macro factors such as the US - Iran conflict and overseas inflation expectations put pressure on the non - ferrous metals market. The short - term interest - rate cut expectation has sharply declined, and the probability of a long - term interest - rate increase has risen. - On the fundamental side, the current mine - end contradictions and pyrometallurgical costs may limit the downward elasticity of nickel compared to other non - ferrous metals. The total price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in March increased by $25 year - on - year to $71, pushing the marginal pyrometallurgical cash cost above 130,000 yuan/ton. - If the mine - end contradictions and wet - process supply problems fade in the middle of the year, the logic of wet - process replacing pyrometallurgical marginal costs may emerge. But in the short term, the marginal cost is still the integrated pyrometallurgical path. - The Indonesian APNI Association mentioned a 30% quota revision space, reducing the upward elasticity of Shanghai Nickel. Pay attention to the covered strategy in the short term [2]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - The US - Iran conflict's shipping problems have a negative pressure expectation on the global economy. Stainless steel consumption in the Middle East accounts for about 2% of the global total. Overseas inflation expectations significantly reduce the probability of interest - rate cuts, and the expectation of tightened liquidity puts pressure on risk assets. - The supply - demand contradiction of stainless steel is not large. The destocking level after the Spring Festival in recent weeks is acceptable compared to the same period in previous years, but the upstream inventory is at a relatively high historical level. The production schedule in March soared to 3.63 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month increase of 40%. Among them, the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.25 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0% and a month - on - month increase of 49%. - The main contradiction lies in the raw material end. The cash - cost break - even line for delivery on the spot market has risen to nearly 14,100 yuan/ton. The total price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in March increased by $25 year - on - year to $71, and the marginal cost of Indonesian ferronickel has increased by nearly 20%, with the full cost at around 1,070 yuan/nickel. The overall cost may temporarily limit the downward elasticity [3]. 3.2 Inventory Tracking - On March 20, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 641 tons to 84,387 tons, with warehouse - receipt inventory increasing by 228 tons to 56,690 tons, spot inventory increasing by 413 tons to 24,727 tons, and bonded - area inventory remaining unchanged at 2,970 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,146 tons to 283,512 tons [4]. - On March 20, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines remained unchanged month - on - month at 5, 7, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory decreased by 0.6 month - on - month to 13.0 days, and the ternary material inventory decreased by 0.3 month - on - month to 7.2 days [5][6]. - On March 20, the SMM ferronickel full - industry chain inventory decreased by 4% month - on - month to 126,000 metal tons and decreased by 4% week - on - week. In February, the SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 1.65 million tons, with a year - on - month increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The stainless - steel social inventory was 1.1274 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.32%. Among them, the cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 691,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.07%, and the hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 436,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.10% [6]. 3.3 Market News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [6]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel - mining business in Guatemala in a few months due to the sharp rebound in nickel prices and the US lifting restrictions on its local facilities. The expected restart time of the CGN mine is around April - May 2026, consistent with the restart time of the PRONICO ferronickel plant [7]. - On February 10, the ESDM released the 2026 nickel work plan and cost budget (RKAB). The approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons [7]. - On February 12, Philippine miners said that the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [8]. - On February 18, 2026, a landslide occurred in a tailings area in the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, resulting in one worker's death and the suspension of the affected area's operations [8]. - On February 17, 2026, Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Moa, Cuba, due to limited fuel supply. It suspended mining operations and put the processing plant on standby for planned maintenance [8]. - PT Weda Bay Nickel (PT WBN) received a preliminary notice from the Indonesian authorities to submit a work plan and budget (RKAB), with the annual production and sales (internal and external) volume of 12 million tons, a 70% reduction compared to 2025 [8]. - The Indonesian Forest Area Management Working Group (PKH Working Group) imposed sanctions on four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province. These companies were fined according to the regulations, with the nickel ore commodity fine standard at 6.5 million Indonesian rupiah per hectare [9]. - The ESDM estimated that Indonesia's nickel ore production in 2026 will be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [9]. - The APNI said that the revision of the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% [9]. - The ESDM aims to complete the approval of the 2026 mineral and coal mining work plan and budget (RKAB) by the end of March 2026 [9]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides a table of weekly key data tracking for nickel and stainless steel, including closing prices, trading volumes, prices of various nickel products, and price differences [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price decreased due to the geopolitical situation and Fed's stance, with the key support level broken and the center of gravity shifting down. The alumina price is under pressure with new capacity coming online. The aluminum price is dragged down by the financial attribute due to the Middle - East situation. Other metals like zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, etc. also have their respective price trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitics, and cost [1][3][8][14] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2605 closed at 94,420 yuan/ton, down 4.52%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 8,491 lots to 584,000 lots. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the spot market was 95,600 yuan/ton, down 3,360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Alumina**: The alumina 2505 contract fell 38 yuan/ton to 3,027 yuan/ton, and the weighted positions increased by 1,330 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [8] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum 2605 contract decreased by 655 yuan to 24,180 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 39,600 lots [14] - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc 2605 fell 3.11% to 22,705 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index positions increased by 3,983 lots to 209,700 lots. The spot market trading was not as good as the previous day [23] - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead 2605 fell 1.59% to 16,415 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index positions increased by 2,146 lots to 135,100 lots. The spot market trading was light [27] - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2605 fell 3,990 to 131,550 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 16,909 to 330,296 lots. The spot premiums of different nickel types changed [32] - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2605 fell 200 to 13,855 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 9,613 to 182,402 lots. The spot prices of different resources were within certain ranges [38] - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2604 closed at 345,730 yuan/ton, down 24,490 yuan/ton or 6.61%, and the positions increased by 2,114 lots to 80,600 lots. The spot price continued to decline [41] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The main contract of carbonate lithium 2605 fell 9,700 to 142,600 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 25,270 to 595,501 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium both decreased [55] 3.2 Important Information - **Inflation and Fed Policy**: The US February PPI was 3.4% year - on - year, and the core PPI was 3.9%, a one - year high. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, raised the inflation expectation, and still expected to cut interest rates once this year [2][15] - **Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continued, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard launched a large - scale missile attack on oil and energy facilities related to the US in the region [15][19] - **Inventory Information**: As of March 19, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 8.85% week - on - week to 523,100 tons; the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased to 266,100 tons; the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory reached 78,000 tons as of March 16 [2][24][29] - **Industry News**: Guinea plans to cut bauxite exports in early April; some new alumina production lines in China are expected to be put into trial production; GlobalData said that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach nearly 6 terawatts by 2031 [9][48] 3.3 Logic Analysis - **Copper**: The geopolitical situation and Fed's stance led to a decrease in copper price. The supply of copper ore was tight, and the downstream pricing enthusiasm declined [3] - **Alumina**: Guinea's bauxite export policy needs to be monitored. The new domestic alumina capacity needs time to be fully released, and the subsequent pressure on alumina comes from the supply side [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The Middle - East situation led to concerns about economic slowdown, and the financial attribute dragged down the aluminum price [16] - **Zinc**: The non - ferrous sector was under pressure due to macro factors. The domestic refined zinc supply increased, but the demand recovery was insufficient. However, the expected reduction of overseas smelters and low LME inventory provided some support [25] - **Lead**: The increase in social inventory and inflow of imported lead suppressed the lead price, but the loss of secondary lead smelters provided some support [30] - **Nickel**: The weakening copper price and the tense Middle - East situation affected the nickel price. The nickel ore price was firm, but the nickel - iron price was under pressure [35] - **Stainless Steel**: The overseas manufacturing contraction led to some orders flowing back to China, but the concern about global economic recession still dominated the price trend [39] - **Tin**: The impact of Indonesia's potential tin export ban was limited. The recovery of tin production in Myanmar and the weak downstream demand affected the tin price [43] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The negative growth of new - energy vehicle sales in March and the expected production of Jiangxi Xikeng Mine affected the supply - demand relationship, and the price center shifted down [57] 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Copper**: Unilateral: The price broke the key support level and the center of gravity shifted down; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5][6][7] - **Alumina**: Unilateral: New capacity is coming soon, and the alumina price is under pressure; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [12] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Unilateral: Weak operation with the sector; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [17][18] - **Zinc**: Unilateral: The zinc price may be weak in the short term due to macro and fundamental factors; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [26] - **Lead**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [31] - **Nickel**: Unilateral: The price fluctuates weakly; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [36][37] - **Stainless Steel**: Unilateral: Wait for the macro situation to stabilize; Arbitrage: Wait and see [41] - **Tin**: Unilateral: The tin price remains weak; Options: Wait and see [44] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Unilateral: The oscillation range moves down; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [58][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - **沪镍**: The outer market continues to decline slightly, showing a weak and volatile trend. In terms of supply, the production schedule in March is increasing, and domestic inventory is piling up, indicating sufficient market supply. On the industrial chain, the sentiment of bullish on nickel ore is strong, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continues to ferment, and there is a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the cost line is firm. The inventory of stainless steel continues to decline slightly, and the demand is weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles meet expectations, but the month - on - month decline is large in the off - season. The conclusion is that Shanghai Nickel 2605 will run weakly in a volatile manner [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of spot stainless steel has decreased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, the demand in Indonesia is strong, the price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the cost line has strong support. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the demand is weak. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2605 will run in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On March 18, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 135,200, down 740 from March 17; the price of LME Nickel was 17,160, down 95; the price of stainless steel's main contract was 14,020, down 75. The nickel index was 134,050, down 1,200, and the cold - rolled index was 13,563, down 68 [9]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 138,000, down 1,950; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 141,350, down 2,000; the price of 1 imported nickel was 134,700, down 2,050; the price of nickel beans was 137,250, down 2,000. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged, while the price in Foshan was 14,900, down 100 [9]. 2. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **LME and SHFE Inventory**: As of March 18, LME nickel inventory was 283,950, an increase of 210 from the previous day; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 57,194, a decrease of 53. The total inventory was 341,144, an increase of 157 [12]. - **Previous Inventory Data**: As of March 13, the SHFE nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,462 tons, an increase of 1,912 tons and 2,894 tons respectively [11]. 3. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Futures Inventory**: On March 18, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 53,481, a decrease of 421 from March 17 [17]. - **Regional Inventory**: On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons month - on - month. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 707,100 tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons month - on - month [16]. 4. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - **Nickel Ore Prices**: On March 18, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 80 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni0.9% was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 15 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.5; the sea freight from the Philippines to Tianjin Port was 17 US dollars per ton, an increase of 1.5 [20]. - **Nickel Iron Prices**: The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 1,093.48 yuan per nickel point, a decrease of 0.75; the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,675 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [20]. 5. Stainless Steel Production Cost - **Cost Types**: The traditional production cost was 14,186, the production cost using scrap steel was 14,081, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 17,882 [22]. 6. Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price was 133,893 yuan per ton [25].