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如何理解国债买卖重启?
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-10-28 05:49
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's announcement of a loose support policy at the Financial Street Conference was unexpected, but the peak of the bond - buying expectation was in September. The current bond - buying may be a rebound due to the concentrated release of the long - awaited bullish sentiment of trading institutions with low duration and low positions, which may have a fast - fading impact [2]. - Whether banks and residents can change their medium - term view on the profitability of bond products and form a new round of capital allocation bull market is the core factor for the bond market to have a profitable market, which is still difficult to achieve at present [2]. - The probability of the 10 - year bond yield breaking below 1.7% is not high, and the direct impact of large banks' continuous short - bond reserves on the market since the third quarter is relatively limited, with stronger sentiment pricing [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Before the market opened, due to the positive Malaysia talks on Sunday, interest rates rose significantly, and the equity market continued to recover, with both dividend/Agricultural Bank of China and technology sectors rising. The Financial Street Conference was anticipated before the market, and it was the last time point for interest - rate cut/easing trading in late October options [2]. - After the market opened, the market gradually traded on the expectation that the MLF roll - over would continue the previous repo - based interest - rate cut. The current situation is approaching the historical pricing limit of the policy rate [2]. - Before the morning closing, there was a rare 1600 - lot long order at 115.2 for TL, indicating a complex afternoon trend [2]. - After the conference, the spot bonds continued to rally. The yield of the 10 - year 25016 issue dropped 5BP to around 1.8, and the 30 - year 2506 dropped 5.75 to 2.15, approaching the tariff pricing range [2]. Bank Bond - Buying Behavior - Recently, large banks have been buying a significant amount of short - term bonds daily, with a scale similar to that in September. In October, large banks' purchases of treasury bonds within 3 years were close to 200 billion, but the amount of bonds over 5 years was very small [2]. - The central bank's bond - buying steepens the yield curve to prepare for possible institutional behavior risks, such as the self - operating loss risk of small and medium - sized banks and the need to explore a liquidity arrangement mechanism for non - bank institutions [2]. Market Outlook - There is a possibility that the market will repeat old scenarios, such as the fiscal department having a large say and interest - payment pressure, which requires controlling bond - issuing costs, and the expansion of bond - buying terms and varieties may compress the carry of financial institutions and conflict with the prevention of institutional financial risks [2].