1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The year - end bond market rally can still be expected, but the magnitude should be rationally viewed. Bank, insurance, and wealth - management funds still have bond - allocation needs, protecting the market. However, the rate - cut expectation is weaker than in the past two years, so the rally may be limited [5][7][109]. - Currently, the three factors affecting bond - market fluctuations are risk preference, fund sales regulations, and year - end rally. As the negative impacts of risk preference and fee regulations are weakening, the risk of yield rising above the previous high is controllable. Before the implementation of the fee regulations, the bond market may fluctuate narrowly around 1.8%, and a potential decline in yield may occur later [5][7][109]. - Structurally, there is room to explore the spread of 3 - 5y policy - financial bonds. Attention can be paid to 7y CDB bonds in the medium - term, and the 30 - 10y treasury bond term spread may continue to compress. The 30y treasury bond swap strategy can be considered, and 15 - 30y local bonds can be participated in after the November supply peak [5][7][109]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 10 - month Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation - **2025 October Central Bank Balance Sheet Changes**: The central bank's balance - sheet size decreased from 47.14 trillion yuan to 47.06 trillion yuan. The main reduction item on the asset side was "claims on the government", and the main increase item on the liability side was "government deposits". The "other depository corporation deposits" decreased seasonally [12][13][22]. - **Impact of Central Bank Operations on Custody Volume in October 2025**: The net investment scale of innovative tools was close to the change in the custody - account balance. The main incremental bond type was local bonds, and treasury bonds shifted from reduction to increase [27]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio Driven by the carry - trade space, institutions' willingness to increase leverage marginally recovered. In October, the average monthly trading volume of repurchase increased, and the average leverage ratio of bond funds rose. It reached the highest level in early November and then declined due to tightened liquidity [30]. 3.3 By Institution - **Banks**: Big banks' bond - allocation speed slowed down, with both primary - and secondary - market bond - buying efforts decreasing. Rural commercial banks may still have bond - allocation needs as their deposit growth rate exceeds the loan growth rate [42][48][54]. - **Insurance**: In the context of a bullish equity market, the incremental bond investment of insurance companies declined. In Q3 2025, there was an inversion between the incremental bond investment and secondary - market bond - buying scale. However, in the future, there may still be bond - allocation demand for incremental funds [62][70]. - **General Funds**: The bond - allocation sentiment improved. At the end of the year, there may still be a tendency to front - run, but the intensity may weaken. The scale of bond funds increased, and wealth - management products had strong bond - allocation demand, which is beneficial for the year - end rally [72][80][83]. - **Foreign Capital**: The comprehensive return on investing in certificates of deposit decreased, and foreign capital maintained a net outflow, mainly reducing holdings of certificates of deposit and policy - financial bonds while increasing holdings of treasury bonds [84][91]. 3.4 By Bond Type In October, the incremental custody volume of the bond market rebounded, and certificates of deposit and government bonds were the main supporting items. The net financing scale of government bonds decreased, the supply of policy - financial bonds slightly increased, and the net financing of certificates of deposit increased significantly [92][99][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of the central bank's bond purchases in October was significantly lower than market expectations. The subsequent bond - buying rhythm should be objectively evaluated, and there is still significant room for the total scale of the central bank's bond purchases compared to overseas countries. The specific scale is difficult to determine, with a monthly purchase of 200 billion yuan being a relatively fast pace [1][2][3]. - The bond market's α - mining strategy has entered the middle stage. The market is currently focused on the implementation of the new fund fee regulations and their subsequent impacts. The new regulations may drive some funds with a strong preference for liquidity to redeem funds, but it is expected that the 10 - year treasury bond is unlikely to reach new highs [4][5]. - In the interest rate bond market, the bond market was in a weak and volatile state due to the central bank's bond purchases being lower than expectations and concerns about the new fund regulations. The central bank's OMO had a large - scale net withdrawal, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased. The term spreads of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds both narrowed [10][11][55]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Objective View of the Scale and Rhythm of the Central Bank's Bond Purchases 3.1.1 Overseas Reference - Compared with overseas countries, the proportion of the central bank's treasury bond holdings in its total assets and the overall treasury bond market in China is relatively low. For example, in Japan, the eurozone, Canada, and the United States, the proportion of central bank treasury bond holdings in total assets is over 60%, while in China, it is about 4.7%. The proportion of central bank treasury bond holdings in the total treasury bond market in Japan and the eurozone is 48% and 36% respectively, while in Canada and the United States, it is around 11.9% and 14.1%, and in China, it is about 5.7% [2][15]. - Historically, the proportion of the Federal Reserve's treasury bond holdings in the total US treasury bonds was around 9 - 10% before 2008, and it gradually compressed to around 10% near the end of each round of QT after 2008 [2][16]. 3.1.2 Scale Deduction - If the central bank's annual bond - buying increment is 1 trillion yuan, it will not be until 2030 that the proportion of bond - holding scale to the total treasury bond scale approaches the Federal Reserve's normal - state level of 10%. If the increment is expanded to 2 - 3 trillion yuan, this proportion can be reached by the end of 2026 [22]. - Currently, the central bank has a high degree of flexibility in bond - buying scale. It is difficult to directly compare with last year's level. A monthly net purchase of about 100 billion yuan is a neutral level, while a monthly net purchase of 200 billion yuan may lead to a smoother year - end market trend [25][26]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: The α - Mining Strategy Enters the Middle Stage - Since October, the bond market has continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, mainly fluctuating around 1.8%. The market is currently mainly concerned with the implementation of the new fund fee regulations and their subsequent impacts [28]. - The impact of the new fund fee regulations is relatively controllable. It is expected that the 10 - year treasury bond is unlikely to reach new highs, but the regulations may drive some funds to redeem funds, with the estimated redemption scale being around 500 billion yuan. The impact on the bond market can be referenced to the small - scale redemption tides since the second quarter of 2025 [32][33][39]. - The 10 - year treasury bond is still in a volatile market, and the α - mining strategy has entered the middle stage. For perpetual bonds and credit bonds, short - term profit - taking is advisable, and the right - side allocation opportunities should be grasped after the redemption disturbances. For interest rate bonds, different varieties have different investment strategies. For example, local bonds with a maturity of over 6 years have seen a significant decline in their variety spreads, and the medium - term spreads still have some room for compression but are approaching the central level. The purchase of treasury bonds can be carried out in a dumbbell - shaped manner [40][41][44]. 3.3 Interest Rate Bond Market Review: The Bond Market was in a Weak and Volatile State due to the Central Bank's Bond Purchases being Lower than Expectations and Concerns about the New Fund Regulations 3.3.1 Capital Market - The central bank's OMO had a large - scale net withdrawal, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The issuance price of 1 - year national and stock - holding bank certificates of deposit decreased, and the weighted price of DR007 also decreased [11]. 3.3.2 Primary Issuance - The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [61]. 3.3.3 Benchmark Changes - The term spreads of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds both narrowed. The short - end yields of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased by 2.19BP and 2.51BP respectively, and the long - end yields increased by 1.88BP and 2.35BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrowed by 0.31BP to 40.97BP, and that of policy - financial bonds narrowed by 0.16BP to 33.68BP [55].

不少机构分析认为，央行此次买债规模低于市场预期，但为后续操作留出了更多想象空间。而随着央 行买债预期的交易告一段落，市场将更多关注基本面、权益市场表现等因素。 2025.11. 06 本文字数：2679，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 央行日前公布的10月各项工具流动性投放情况显示，当月央行通过公开市场国债买卖操作投放200 亿元流动性。 不过，从债市表现来看，因为规模较以往月均买债规模明显偏低，上述消息公布后，市场透露出"失 望"情绪。11月5日，债市表现仍震荡偏弱，截至发稿，多数利率债收益率上行。 200亿元国债买入让市场"失望"了？ 根据央行11月4日发布的2025年10月央行各项工具流动性投放情况，10月央行通过公开市场国债买 卖操作净投放200亿元。这意味着，自1月起暂停的国债买卖操作已恢复。 从市场反应来看，消息发布后，主要利率债收益率先是快速上行，随后买盘涌入，收益率又很快回 落。其中，30年期国债活跃券"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行0.4BP（基点），收盘价为 2.136%；10年期国债活跃券"25附息国债16"收益率较上一交易日收盘价持平，报1.79%。 此前，主要利率债品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) resumed its treasury bond buying operations in October, with a net purchase of 20 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than market expectations, leading to disappointment among investors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, major interest rate bond yields initially rose but then quickly fell as buying interest surged, with the 30-year bond yield decreasing by 0.4 basis points to 2.136% [2]. - The overall bond market showed a mixed performance, with yields on various maturities experiencing fluctuations, indicating a volatile market response to the PBOC's actions [4][5]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts noted that the 20 billion yuan net purchase is low compared to last year's monthly net purchases of 100 billion to 300 billion yuan, which has led to a sense of disappointment among investors [2][3]. - The PBOC's cautious approach aims to avoid causing excessive downward pressure on interest rates, reflecting a balanced strategy to maintain market stability [3][5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - There is speculation that the PBOC may increase the scale of treasury bond purchases in November, potentially exceeding the October figures, as the market adjusts to the new liquidity conditions [1][6]. - Analysts suggest that the future scale of bond purchases will depend on the movement of bond yields, indicating a responsive strategy from the PBOC based on market conditions [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The scale of the central bank's bond purchases in October was significantly less than last year, but the daily average net purchase was not low. The total net purchase in November is likely to exceed that in October [1]. - The scale of the central bank's future bond purchases depends on bond yield changes. The recent decline in interest rates may be due to market trading of the "central bank bond - buying" theme, and bond pricing will eventually return to fundamentals [2]. - There is theoretical downward space for the 10Y Treasury bond yield, but three points need to be noted: the speed of yield decline, the possible change of the "desirable level" over time, and the influence of market internal forces [3]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. Is the 20 - billion bond - buying scale small? - On November 4, 2025, the central bank disclosed a net bond purchase of 20 billion yuan in October, much less than last year's monthly 100 - 30 billion yuan. Using the daily average indicator, the daily net purchase was 50 billion yuan from October 28 - 31, and the November total is likely to exceed October's [1]. - The scale of the central bank's future bond purchases depends on bond yield changes. The 20 - billion purchase may not be the main reason for the 5bp decline in the 10Y Treasury bond yield from October 28 - 31, and bond pricing will return to fundamentals [2]. 2. The downward space of bond yields and three points to note - It is reasonable to think that the central bank's restart of bond - buying indicates that the Treasury bond yield in late October was at a desirable level. There is theoretical downward space for the 10Y Treasury bond yield, similar to the level in mid - June [3]. - Three points to note: the speed of yield decline may be more important than the specific level; the "desirable level" may change over time; the downward space is a theoretical maximum from a policy perspective, and market forces often dominate bond yield trends [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to resume open market operations for government bonds, signaling a potential strengthening of the bond market in the fourth quarter, following a period of adjustment in the third quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Analysts note that the PBOC's announcement has transformed expectations into reality, with recent trading days showing a significant decline in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds, breaking through previous resistance levels [1]. - The bond market had already begun to anticipate the resumption of operations during the third quarter's significant adjustments, indicating a market shift towards a more favorable outlook [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The resumption of open market operations is viewed as a move to enhance monetary policy tools, improve the financial function of government bonds, and facilitate coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, which is crucial for the development of China's bond market [1][2]. - The PBOC's actions are aimed at achieving the annual economic growth target of around 5%, especially in light of a slowdown in GDP growth to 4.8% and a negative growth rate in fixed asset investment [2]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts expect that the PBOC will likely focus on purchasing short to medium-term bonds, which could alleviate pressure on commercial banks holding bonds and serve a similar purpose to reserve requirement ratio cuts [2]. - The anticipated bond purchases may lead to a steepening of the yield curve, as seen in previous operations where short-term bonds were primarily targeted [2][3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's announcement of a loose support policy at the Financial Street Conference was unexpected, but the peak of the bond - buying expectation was in September. The current bond - buying may be a rebound due to the concentrated release of the long - awaited bullish sentiment of trading institutions with low duration and low positions, which may have a fast - fading impact [2]. - Whether banks and residents can change their medium - term view on the profitability of bond products and form a new round of capital allocation bull market is the core factor for the bond market to have a profitable market, which is still difficult to achieve at present [2]. - The probability of the 10 - year bond yield breaking below 1.7% is not high, and the direct impact of large banks' continuous short - bond reserves on the market since the third quarter is relatively limited, with stronger sentiment pricing [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Before the market opened, due to the positive Malaysia talks on Sunday, interest rates rose significantly, and the equity market continued to recover, with both dividend/Agricultural Bank of China and technology sectors rising. The Financial Street Conference was anticipated before the market, and it was the last time point for interest - rate cut/easing trading in late October options [2]. - After the market opened, the market gradually traded on the expectation that the MLF roll - over would continue the previous repo - based interest - rate cut. The current situation is approaching the historical pricing limit of the policy rate [2]. - Before the morning closing, there was a rare 1600 - lot long order at 115.2 for TL, indicating a complex afternoon trend [2]. - After the conference, the spot bonds continued to rally. The yield of the 10 - year 25016 issue dropped 5BP to around 1.8, and the 30 - year 2506 dropped 5.75 to 2.15, approaching the tariff pricing range [2]. Bank Bond - Buying Behavior - Recently, large banks have been buying a significant amount of short - term bonds daily, with a scale similar to that in September. In October, large banks' purchases of treasury bonds within 3 years were close to 200 billion, but the amount of bonds over 5 years was very small [2]. - The central bank's bond - buying steepens the yield curve to prepare for possible institutional behavior risks, such as the self - operating loss risk of small and medium - sized banks and the need to explore a liquidity arrangement mechanism for non - bank institutions [2]. Market Outlook - There is a possibility that the market will repeat old scenarios, such as the fiscal department having a large say and interest - payment pressure, which requires controlling bond - issuing costs, and the expansion of bond - buying terms and varieties may compress the carry of financial institutions and conflict with the prevention of institutional financial risks [2].

Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since October, the main pricing themes in the bond market have been influenced by the fluctuating U.S.-China relations, particularly regarding tariffs, with the U.S. showing a tendency to extend tariff delays[2] - The recent discussions around public fund redemption fees have intensified, with potential adjustments to the proposed regulations, although no official confirmation has been made yet[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) may not restart bond purchases if the liquidity remains ample, as indicated by the recent behavior of major banks shifting their focus back to shorter-term bonds[2] Group 2: Government Debt Supply - The Ministry of Finance has approved an additional 500 billion yuan in local government bond quotas for Q4, which is expected to have a limited impact on the market due to historical precedents[3] - The net supply of government bonds for October to December is projected to be 10,200 billion, 10,900 billion, and 4,500 billion yuan respectively, indicating a significant reduction in pressure compared to the previous quarter[3] - Concerns about a substantial decline in fiscal stimulus have been alleviated with the approval of the bond quota, reducing fears of liquidity withdrawal by the central bank[3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Various negative factors have been released continuously, suggesting limited upward movement in yields, with the duration of medium to long-term bond funds decreasing to 3.39 years, close to the low point observed in March[4] - Investors are advised to consider increasing duration positions cautiously, with recommendations to buy during market corrections to mitigate the risk of being trapped in rising markets[4] - For those seeking lower volatility, 10-year government bonds are recommended, while those looking for higher returns may consider 10-year policy bank bonds and 30-year government bonds, which have shown greater yield spread expansion[4]

Group 1: Central Bank's Bond Purchase Overview - The central bank's bond purchases, known as "buying bonds," are a key monetary policy tool, with a balance of CNY 2.25 trillion in government bonds as of August 2025, accounting for 4.85% of total assets[2][11] - Historically, the central bank has engaged in three methods of bond purchases: cash transactions, rolling purchases of special government bonds, and repurchase transactions[2][16] - Current expectations for the central bank to resume bond purchases are rising due to liquidity needs and economic pressures, particularly in the context of slowing consumption and real estate declines[3][27] Group 2: Economic Context and Policy Coordination - Economic growth pressures remain, with consumption growth slowing to 3.4% year-on-year in August 2025, and fixed asset investment down by 7.1%[33][34] - The necessity for coordinated "wide monetary" and "wide fiscal" policies is increasing, as the government seeks to address debt and liquidity issues[3][27][38] - The central bank's recent meetings emphasize the importance of fiscal and monetary policy coordination to support economic stability[30][31] Group 3: Future Bond Purchase Signals - The central bank's bond buying operations have shown a pattern of increasing net purchases, with amounts of CNY 1,000 billion in August 2024, rising to CNY 3,000 billion by December 2024[28][29] - The central bank's asset-liability management indicates a need to extend the duration of government bonds held to stabilize the asset structure amid upcoming bond maturities[4][14] - The central bank's recent policy statements suggest a commitment to maintaining liquidity and supporting economic growth through potential bond purchases in the near future[6][27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the domestic bond market is experiencing a "chaotic moment" characterized by intense competition between bullish and bearish forces, particularly around the pricing of 10-year government bonds, with key interest rate levels at 1.80% and 1.75% acting as critical points for market dynamics [1][23]. - The market is primarily focused on two main uncertainties: whether the central bank will restart bond-buying operations and whether the redemption fee rules for public bond funds will be optimized [1][24]. - Recent actions by major banks indicate a shift towards buying long-term bonds, with net purchases of 93 billion yuan in 7-10 year government bonds and 843 billion yuan in 3-5 year bonds since September, suggesting a potential change in market sentiment [1][23]. Group 2 - The optimization of redemption fees for public bond funds is under scrutiny, with expectations for clearer guidelines as the end of September approaches. As of mid-2025, the total scale of bond funds was approximately 11.15 trillion yuan, with institutional investors holding 81% of this amount [2][24]. - The external environment, including recent positive developments in US-China relations, is contributing to a complex interplay of bullish and bearish sentiments in the bond market, potentially affecting market risk appetite [2][24]. - The liquidity situation is slightly tight, with the central bank's recent announcement of a 14-day reverse repurchase reform aimed at stabilizing liquidity across quarters and holidays, which may reduce the likelihood of extreme interest rate increases [3][25]. Group 3 - The bond market has shown signs of differentiation, with the yield on the 10-year government bond rising by 1.1 basis points to 1.80%, while the yield on the 1-year bond fell by 1.0 basis points to 1.39% during the period from September 15 to 19 [4][14]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with bearish forces slightly prevailing, although the yield levels have reached a point where some investors see potential for profit [3][25]. - The government bond issuance pace has slowed, with planned issuance for the week of September 22-26 at 413.1 billion yuan, down from 516 billion yuan the previous week, indicating a potential easing of supply pressure [6][25].