Summary of Modern Dairy's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Modern Dairy - **Industry**: Dairy Farming Key Points and Arguments Industry and Company Performance - As of June 2025, the dairy herd size was 472,000 heads, a decrease of 19,000 heads from the end of 2024, but the proportion of lactating cows increased to 54.1% [2][5] - Raw milk production reached 1.66 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2][5] - The average yield per cow in traditional agriculture was 13.2 tons, up 1.5% year-on-year [2][5] - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was RMB 6.073 billion, with cash EBITDA at RMB 1.477 billion, a slight decrease of 2.5% year-on-year [3][31] Cost Management and Financials - Feed costs decreased by 11.4% year-on-year to RMB 1.79 per kilogram, while other cash costs fell by 6.8% to RMB 0.4 per kilogram [2][5] - The gross margin for raw milk remained around 30% [2][5] - Operating cash flow increased by 23% year-on-year to over RMB 400 million [6] - Capital expenditures decreased by over 16% to approximately RMB 1 billion [6] Market Outlook - The company anticipates continued pressure in the market for the fall and fourth quarter of 2025, with a potential market turning point in 2026 [4][9] - The dairy herd is expected to drop below 6 million heads in 2025, continuing to decline to about 5.8 million heads in the second half of the year [4][9] - The price of raw milk is projected to rise to RMB 3.3-3.5 per kilogram, with the company potentially reaching RMB 4 per kilogram [13] Specialty Milk and Product Development - The company operates five organic dairy farms with over 40,000 heads, and the proportion of specialty milk reached 8%, expected to exceed 10% by 2027 [6] - The company has secured 20%-30% of its soybean meal supply for the next year at a price lower by RMB 200-300 per ton compared to this year [4][23] Supply Chain and Import Dynamics - Domestic bulk powder prices are significantly lower than imported prices, leading to a decrease in import volumes [11] - The construction of new processing plants is expected to increase the demand for fresh milk [12] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges from heat stress affecting milk production and fluctuating market demands during peak seasons [7][8] - The elimination of dairy cows, particularly heifers, is a concern, with 210,000 heads culled in the first seven months of the year, impacting future supply [14][15] Future Projections - The company plans to maintain its herd size around 472,000 heads in the coming years, focusing on improving the proportion of lactating cows to enhance financial performance [20] - The expected yield per cow is projected to increase from 12.8 tons last year to over 13 tons this year [19] Conclusion - Modern Dairy is actively managing its herd size and costs while navigating market pressures and supply chain challenges. The focus on specialty milk and cost control measures positions the company for potential growth despite the current market volatility.