Summary of the Conference Call for YouRan Dairy (优然牧业) Industry Overview - **Accelerated Culling in Dairy Industry**: Due to rising beef prices, financially pressured farms are accelerating the culling of dairy cows. It is expected that production capacity will clear more rapidly in Q3, although the overall raw milk output will not be significantly affected [2][3]. - **Consumer Recovery Expectations**: The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are anticipated to stimulate consumption, with social raw milk prices already showing an increase, indicating marginal supply-demand improvement. A moderate recovery in milk prices is expected by the end of the year to early next year [2][3]. Company Performance - **Stable Raw Milk Business**: In early July, the decline in raw milk prices narrowed. The company’s unique milk products account for a high proportion, leading to stable gross margins. Raw milk business revenue achieved mid-double-digit growth, outperforming the industry average [2][7]. - **Revenue Growth**: Overall revenue in the first half of the year showed steady growth, primarily driven by the raw milk business. However, the solutions business faced pressure due to the breeding cycle, impacting overall performance [2][8]. - **Gross Margin Improvement**: In the first half of 2025, the gross margin for the raw milk business increased by over 1 percentage point year-on-year, benefiting from a larger decline in feed and sales costs compared to raw milk prices [2][9]. Production and Capacity - **Stable Annual Production**: The company expects its annual raw milk production and sales to remain stable, with over 2 million tons produced in the first half of the year. The full-year target is set at 4 million tons, with a slight single-digit growth in stock expected by year-end [2][12][13]. - **Biological Asset Value Improvement**: The rise in beef prices has increased income from culling cows, reducing fair value fluctuations of biological assets. A positive profit trend is anticipated for the second half of the year, with a decrease in capital expenditures [2][14][15]. Market Trends and Pricing - **Raw Milk Demand and Pricing**: The first half of the year saw a 2% year-on-year decline in dairy product output, indicating weak consumption. However, seasonal factors and holiday consumption are expected to improve trends in the second half [5][6]. - **Collaboration with Yili**: YouRan Dairy is the largest producer of specialty milk in the country, with pricing based on cost-plus and profit contribution, collaborating with Yili to set prices annually. The company expects to increase the proportion of raw milk supplied to Yili to over 40% in 2025 [11][20][21]. Strategic Outlook - **Diversification of Downstream Clients**: YouRan Dairy has a three-year long-term agreement with Yili, ensuring a supply ratio of no less than 70%. The company is also open to expanding its customer base beyond Yili, with existing clients including Guangming and Junlebao [22]. - **Impact of Industry Policies**: Government policies have been supportive of both upstream and downstream sectors, with measures to assist small and medium-sized farms and subsidies for downstream dairy companies [24]. - **Long-term Demand from Deep Processing**: The domestic deep processing capacity for raw milk is expected to significantly enhance demand for raw milk, particularly as the consumption structure shifts from liquid milk to processed products [25]. Financial Considerations - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: Capital expenditures are expected to decrease this year, primarily due to reduced costs associated with new farm constructions and biological asset management [17][18]. - **Profitability and Dividend Plans**: The company will consider dividend distribution based on overall cash flow, prioritizing debt repayment due to high leverage. Shareholder returns will be a focus when appropriate [19]. Competitive Positioning - **Differentiation in Raw Milk Business**: YouRan Dairy's specialty milk accounts for nearly 30% of its raw milk business, significantly higher than competitors. The company offers a diverse range of specialty milk products, maintaining stable pricing and margins [26].

Summary of Yuran Dairy's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yuran Dairy - **Year**: 2024 Key Financial Performance - **Total Revenue**: Increased by 7.5% to 21 billion CNY [3] - **Overall Gross Margin**: Improved by 4.9 percentage points to 28.8% [3] - **Raw Milk Revenue**: 15.1 billion CNY, up 17% year-on-year; gross profit of 4.914 billion CNY, up 33.8% [3] - **Solution Business Revenue**: 5 billion CNY with a gross margin of 16.8% [3] - **Average Annual Yield**: Increased by 5% to 12.6 tons per farm [3] Industry Insights - **Milk Production Capacity**: National milk production capacity is on a downward trend [5] - **Consumer Stimulus Policies**: Expected to improve supply-demand balance [5] - **Cost Structure**: Cost of milk sold per kilogram is 2.77 CNY, with feed costs accounting for 76% [6] - **Raw Material Prices**: Slight fluctuations expected in 2025 due to weak demand [6] Operational Efficiency - **Cost Control**: Yuran Dairy maintains cost targets through technical measures and operational optimization [7][8] - **Long-term Contracts**: Agreements with major clients ensure stable pricing and volume [3][18] Future Outlook - **Production Goals for 2025**: Targeting an average yield of 13 tons, with expected double-digit growth in production [5][11] - **Capital Expenditure**: Expected to decrease to under 600 million CNY in 2025 [22] - **Cow Herd Growth**: Anticipated to reach over 650,000 by the end of 2025 [12] Market Dynamics - **Milk Price Trends**: Prices are expected to stabilize above 2 CNY per kilogram in 2025, reflecting improved supply-demand dynamics [13] - **Impact of Tariffs**: Tariffs have limited impact on soybean meal prices; corn is primarily sourced domestically [6][10] - **Industry Consolidation**: Larger farms are better positioned to manage costs compared to smaller farms [9][16] Challenges and Risks - **Net Loss**: Company reported a net loss of 1.69 billion CNY, though this represents a 34% reduction in losses year-on-year [4] - **Cash Flow**: Cash flow improved significantly, with free cash flow turning positive [4] Strategic Initiatives - **Acquisition Strategy**: No major acquisitions planned; focus on organic growth and herd expansion [23] - **Dividend Policy**: Future dividends will depend on cash flow performance [25] Conclusion Yuran Dairy has demonstrated resilience in a challenging market, achieving growth in revenue and operational efficiency while navigating cost pressures and market dynamics. The company is well-positioned for future growth with strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing production and maintaining financial stability.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and competitive advantages of YouRan, highlighting its revenue growth, milk production, and unique market positioning through specialty milk products supported by Yili [3][4][5]. Financial Performance - YouRan's raw milk revenue reached 15.1 billion RMB in 2024, up 17% from 12.9 billion RMB in 2023, while raw milk production increased to 3.75 million tons, a 24.1% rise from 3.02 million tons in the previous year [3]. - The average price of raw milk was 4.12 RMB per kg, down 5.9% from 4.38 RMB, indicating that revenue growth did not keep pace with production growth [3]. - The company reported a loss in the second half of the year due to a 5 billion RMB impairment charge on property and equipment, primarily because of reduced sales in the feed business [6]. Market Positioning - YouRan's milk price is significantly higher than the national average, which has been around 3.15 RMB, due to its specialty milk products and support from Yili [4][5]. - The company has expanded its dairy herd to 622,000 cows, a 27% increase compared to Modern Dairy's 490,000 cows, and has introduced 20,000 goats for specialty milk production [5]. Operational Insights - The proportion of breeding cows increased to 52.3%, which is expected to lower costs in the future, although growth rates may slow down [5]. - The feed business saw a decline in revenue from 5.8 billion RMB last year to 5 billion RMB this year, indicating operational challenges [6]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for raw milk improved to 32.7% in 2024, up nearly 4 percentage points from 28.6% in 2023, reflecting better cost management despite lower sales volumes [11]. - EBITDA and pre-impairment profits showed significant growth, but comparisons with mid-year results indicate that earlier performance was even stronger [12].