Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with domestic beef and raw milk markets expected to experience upward momentum [3]. - The report highlights the support for long-term pig prices due to industry restructuring, and it sees potential recovery for undervalued leading companies in the sector [3]. - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growth area, benefiting from demographic changes [3]. - The report suggests that the feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is likely to benefit from the recovery in aquaculture [3]. - The poultry sector is expected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Swine - The report notes that as of October 10, the price of live pigs is 11.14 yuan/kg, down 7.48% week-on-week and down 38.45% year-on-year [1][13]. - The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 188.57 yuan/head, down 5.04% week-on-week and down 33.33% year-on-year [1][13]. Poultry - For white chickens, prices are slightly increasing, with chick prices at 3.23 yuan/bird, up 1.25% week-on-week, and broiler prices at 6.68 yuan/kg, down 0.30% week-on-week [1][14]. - Yellow chicken prices are stable, with prices for various types around 5.0 to 8.7 yuan/kg, showing a decrease of 9.09% to 3.33% week-on-week [1][14]. Beef - The domestic beef market price is 61.13 yuan/kg, down 0.20% week-on-week but up 21.05% year-on-year [2][16]. - The report anticipates a new round of beef price increases and a reversal in the beef cycle by 2025 [2][3]. Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk is 3.04 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.19% year-on-year [2][16]. - The report suggests that the acceleration of dairy cow liquidation in Q3 may lead to a price turning point by year-end [2][3]. Soybean Meal - The report indicates that soybean meal prices are supported by supply and demand dynamics, with current prices at 3006 yuan/ton, up 0.6% week-on-week [2][16]. - The report notes that the valuation of soybean meal is at historical lows, with potential catalysts from weather or trade developments [2][3]. Corn - The domestic corn price is 2233 yuan/ton, down 5.06% week-on-week but up 3.24% year-on-year [2][16]. - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [2][3]. Sugar - The report highlights an increase in short-term imports of sugar, with prices in Guangxi at 5760 yuan/ton, down 0.35% week-on-week [2][16]. - Attention is drawn to the rhythm of imports and fluctuations in crude oil prices [2][3]. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Livestock: YouRan MuYe, Modern Farming, China Shengmu, Guangming Meat [3]. - Swine: DeKang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Agriculture, Wens Foodstuffs, and others [3]. - Pet sector: Guibao Pet, Reap Bio [3]. - Feed sector: Haida Group [3]. - Poultry: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and Shengnong Development [3].

9月25日中国牛肉均价71.1元/kg，相较2月低点+9.4%，肉牛价格参考陕西、山东、河南等省份，均在春 节后进入上行通道。肉牛价格的提振，一方面在2021-2024年牛肉价格下行阶段，行业已经历存栏去 化，且肉牛养殖以散户为主，行业去化程度较高，截至2025年6月末牛存栏9992万头，相较于2023年峰 值减少517万头；另一方面中国对进口牛肉依存度较高，24H1进口牛肉供给量占比约31%，2024年末商 务部对进口牛肉进行保障措施立案调查，25H1进口130万吨牛肉，同比-9.5%，结束8年增长趋势，2025 年8月商务部决定进一步延长调查期限至2025年11月26日，进口量的收窄进一步扩大国内牛肉供需缺 口。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 短期奶价上行，长期拐点可期 当前中秋国庆期间，乳制品需求迎来小高峰，伴随供给端陆续出清，原奶价格实现阶段性稳定，肉牛价 格已开始回升，后续奶价稳定及淘牛减亏将显著催化牧业板块机会，原奶供需平衡也有望带动乳企竞争 趋缓，带动乳制品机会。 原奶周期进入尾声，25H2去化有望提速 原奶价格经过4年下行周期，近期迎来阶段性稳定，全国主产区原奶均价从8月3.02元/kg陆续提升至9 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 39 周周报：行业养殖进入亏损，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1、生猪板块：行业养殖进入亏损，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1）本周猪价加速下跌&外销仔猪亏损加大。截至 9 月 27 日，全国生猪均价 12.76 元/kg，较上 周末-1.39%（智农通），行业自繁自养亏损为 54 元/头；本周 7kg 仔猪价格为 236 元/头，头均 亏损约 54 元/头。供应端，本周出栏均重为 128.55kg（环比+0.10kg），近五年历史同期最高， 其中散户出栏均重 143.92kg（年内高位，已接近 24 年 12 月水平），需求端，周内多地气温下 降，其次价格持续走弱，屠企分割利润增加，再者前期国储交货时间临近；所以本周屠宰样本 日均宰杀量环比+1.80%。当前出栏均重仍处于历史同期高位，猪价继续承压运行，行业已进入 亏损状态，政策引导减产&供强需弱情况下，后续产能有望去化。2）重视生猪板块空间！重 视优秀企业的盈利能力！在 25 年猪价持续低位&政策引导情况下，后续产能有望去化。从 2025 年头均市值看，其中牧原股份 3300-4000 元/头，温氏股份、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][78]. Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is experiencing continued price declines, leading to negative profits for farmers. As of September 26, the pig price was 12.50 CNY/kg, down 0.19 CNY/kg week-on-week. The profits for self-breeding and purchased piglet farming were -74.11 CNY/head and -236.57 CNY/head, respectively, with week-on-week declines of -49.66 CNY and -37.25 CNY [2][11][36]. - In the beef sector, prices for calves and fattened bulls have stabilized after recent increases, with calf prices at 32.36 CNY/kg and fattened bull prices at 25.96 CNY/kg, both unchanged week-on-week. The long-term supply of beef is expected to tighten, with a potential price upturn anticipated in 2026-2027 [3][38]. - The poultry sector is seeing mixed trends, with white feathered chicken prices experiencing slight fluctuations due to steady demand ahead of the holidays. As of September 26, the price was 6.90 CNY/kg, up 0.02 CNY/kg week-on-week [4][44]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Continued price decline in pig farming, with significant losses reported for farmers. The average weight of pigs being sold has shown a mixed trend, with group farms seeing slight increases while smallholders have decreased [2][11][24]. - The supply pressure remains high, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, although long-term adjustments in production capacity may lead to price recovery [36][32]. Beef Industry - The beef market is stabilizing after a period of price increases, with expectations of tightening supply in the medium to long term due to previous losses in the industry [3][38]. - The price of calves has increased by 34% since the beginning of the year, indicating a potential recovery in the market [38]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing stable prices with slight increases in certain areas due to tight supply. The egg price has decreased slightly, reflecting market conditions [4][44]. - The ongoing avian influenza situation may impact supply chains, but there is potential for recovery in consumption due to government policies promoting domestic demand [47]. Agricultural Products - The Argentine government's recent policy changes regarding export tariffs have significantly impacted soybean meal prices, leading to a sharp decline followed by a rebound [4][58]. - The focus on enhancing grain production and food security is emphasized, with potential growth in agricultural technology sectors [54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the cattle cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to rise [3]. - The pig farming sector is expected to stabilize long-term prices due to reduced competition, with a focus on undervalued leading companies [3]. - The pet consumption market is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic changes [3]. - The feed industry, particularly Haida Group, is projected to achieve excess returns due to the recovery in aquaculture [3]. - The poultry sector is expected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices have started to rise, with the average market price at 61.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week but up 21.29% year-on-year [2][3]. - Raw milk prices are expected to reach a turning point by the end of the year, with current prices at 3.03 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.5% year-on-year [2][3]. Swine - The pig price as of September 26 is 12.44 yuan/kg, down 1.50% week-on-week and down 30.73% year-on-year [1][13]. - The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 210.95 yuan/head, down 12.45% week-on-week and down 30.67% year-on-year [1][13]. Poultry - The price of broiler chicks is 3.21 yuan/bird, down 2.13% week-on-week and down 9.07% year-on-year [1][14]. - The price of eggs in major production areas is 3.55 yuan/jin, down 3.01% week-on-week and down 19.50% year-on-year [1][14]. Feed - The domestic soybean spot price is 4061 yuan/ton, up 0.42% week-on-week, while soybean meal is priced at 2998 yuan/ton, down 0.46% week-on-week [2][3]. - The corn price is 2352 yuan/ton, up 0.09% week-on-week and up 8.49% year-on-year [2][3]. Sugar and Rubber - The sugar price in Guangxi is 5780 yuan/ton, down 1.03% week-on-week [2][3]. - The rubber price is expected to stabilize in the short term, with the Thai standard price at 1860 USD/ton, up 1.64% week-on-week [2][3].

1)去化或已进入尾声。奶价下行4年，行业亏损1.5年，带来奶牛产能已去化约8%(截至25年8月)，叠加 三季度青贮饲料采购季临近，资金需求陡增，或将迫使资金状况不佳的牧场存栏量被动加速出清。以24 年年底产能为基数，该行测算行业有望在今年年底或26H1完成产能筑底，实现奶价拐点。 天风证券（601162）发布研报称，25H1奶价承压，牧企中报表现分化。相较于猪养殖，牛行业的补栏 周期显著更长。从犊牛培育到可投产的成牛，整个周期通常需要约2年时间，远长于猪的10个月补栏周 期。这种更长的生产周期特性，使得行业产能调整相对滞后，因此其周期性的景气阶段往往持续时间更 久。此外，与传统畜禽不同，牛养殖的供给端扰动因素较少(如无禽类行业的换羽等现象)，使得产能变 化趋势的确定性更强。当前肉牛价格进入上行通道，淘汰母牛价格同步回暖，考虑到淘汰母牛占牧场生 物资产存量的重要比重，其价格回暖对当期利润的提振作用不容忽视，有望成为牧企短期业绩的重要助 推力。 天风证券主要观点如下： 奶牛板块：供给强收缩，去化或已进入尾声! 具体标的 1)肉牛在母牛持续减产+奶牛淘牛减少+进口增量受限下，2025H2商品肉牛供给预计进入收缩通道 ...

人民财讯9月24日电，中信证券研报表示，2024年以来能繁母牛大幅去化导致的牛只供应短缺是本轮牛 价上涨的主要推动，二季度以来活牛价格提升趋势明显，考虑到2026年国内肉牛供给存在下降压力，肉 牛价格仍有上涨空间。综合来看，继续看好肉牛原奶周期共振，龙头牧业企业利润改善可期。 ...

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The dairy sector is experiencing a significant supply contraction, with the potential end of capacity reduction in sight. The milk price has been declining for four years, leading to an industry loss for 1.5 years, resulting in an approximate 8% reduction in dairy cow capacity as of August 2025. The upcoming third-quarter silage feed procurement season may accelerate the clearing of livestock due to increased funding needs [4][27] - The beef sector is at a turning point in a super cycle, with domestic beef cattle capacity being fully cleared. The prolonged loss cycle has driven a deep reduction in breeding cows, which is expected to lead to a decline in beef cattle inventory starting in 2024. The supply of beef is anticipated to enter a contraction phase in the second half of 2025 [5][50] Summary by Sections Dairy Sector - Supply contraction is nearing its end, with milk prices expected to rebound due to a tightening supply-demand balance. The reduction in capacity is expected to stabilize by the end of 2025 or the first half of 2026, supported by seasonal demand during the upcoming holidays and long-term improvements in consumption driven by child-rearing subsidies [4][27] - The financial performance of dairy companies varies, with some showing resilience against falling milk prices due to unique business advantages, while others face significant pressure [6] - The dairy industry is characterized by a longer production cycle compared to other livestock, leading to a more prolonged adjustment period in capacity [6][27] Beef Sector - The beef cattle market is experiencing a super cycle, with a significant reduction in domestic beef cattle capacity. The prolonged loss cycle has led to a decrease in breeding cows, which will impact beef supply in the coming years [5][50] - External factors affecting beef supply are diminishing, with a long-term global beef supply gap emerging due to various pressures on major production areas [5] - The demand for beef is expected to grow steadily, driven by rising income levels and health consciousness among consumers, with a notable reliance on imported beef to meet domestic demand [50][51] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in both the dairy and beef sectors. Specific companies to watch include China Shengmu, Guangming Meat Industry, and Fucheng Co., for beef, and Yuran Dairy, China Shengmu, and Modern Dairy for dairy [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the coexistence of low pig prices and policy adjustments, indicating that capacity reduction may gradually become evident in the swine breeding sector. The average price of live pigs was 12.69 CNY/kg as of September 19, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.66 CNY/kg. The utilization rate of fattening barns has declined, averaging 40.12% across 17 provinces, down 4.82 percentage points from August 31 [2][10][33]. - In the beef sector, prices for calves and fattening bulls remained stable at 32.44 CNY/kg and 25.97 CNY/kg respectively, with year-to-date increases of 35% and 10%. The long-term outlook suggests tightening beef supply, with a potential price upturn expected in 2026-2027 [3][35]. - The poultry sector is experiencing weak performance, particularly in the white-feathered chicken market, where prices have decreased to 6.88 CNY/kg. The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks may further restrict upstream production capacity [4][41]. - In the agricultural products segment, soybean meal prices have faced downward pressure due to fluctuating market expectations regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations. As of September 19, soybean meal futures were priced at 3014 CNY/ton, down 65 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][55]. Summary by Sections Swine Breeding - Continued supply pressure has led to a decline in pig prices, with a current average of 12.69 CNY/kg. The utilization rate of fattening barns has dropped to 40.12% [2][10]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased slightly to 128.45 kg, indicating a strong outflow from larger farms [20][33]. - The price of piglets has reached a yearly low, averaging 259 CNY/head, down 11% week-on-week [27][33]. Beef Industry - The beef market is stabilizing after recent price increases, with expectations of tightening supply leading to a potential price upturn in 2026-2027 [3][35]. - Current prices for calves and fattening bulls are stable, reflecting a recovery trend in the market [35]. Poultry Sector - The white-feathered chicken market is underperforming, with prices at 6.88 CNY/kg. The ongoing avian influenza situation may further impact production capacity [4][41]. - Egg prices have fluctuated, recently peaking at 8 CNY/kg before settling at 7.92 CNY/kg [4][41]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have been volatile, influenced by U.S.-China trade negotiations, with current prices at 3014 CNY/ton [4][55]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring weather conditions and trade policies affecting soybean imports [4][55].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Dairy Industry Industry Overview - The dairy sector is experiencing a rebound due to a decrease in feed costs, with companies like YouRan, New South Wood, and Gongji Dairy reporting a 10% year-on-year decline in sales costs, which has helped offset the impact of falling prices per ton. The gross profit margin for raw milk has increased by nearly 2 percentage points [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **YouRan Dairy Performance**: In the first half of 2025, YouRan's raw milk revenue grew approximately 8% to 8 billion yuan, driven by increased sales volume and the launch of three new farms. Sales costs decreased by 10%, and feed costs fell by 12%, leading to a gross margin increase of 2.4 percentage points. The reduction of heifer stock and an increase in the proportion of breeding cows also contributed to profit growth [1][5]. - **Modern Dairy Performance**: Modern Dairy has reduced its stock by about 20,000 heads to 18,700 heads by eliminating inefficient cows. Raw milk revenue remained stable at around 5 billion yuan, but the average selling price fell by 10% year-on-year. The solutions business revenue dropped by 23%. Despite a 23% increase in operating cash flow, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased due to biological asset losses [1][6][7]. - **Milk Price Trends**: In early September, milk prices slightly rebounded, ending a downward trend since April, indicating that demand is not as weak as expected. If milk prices stabilize in the fourth quarter, demand may stabilize next year. However, a significant reduction in breeding cow stock is anticipated due to mass culling, which may lead to a supply gap [1][8][10]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The dairy sector's stock structure has improved, with the proportion of breeding cows increasing by 2.3 percentage points to 53%. Major dairy companies have accelerated stock reduction, with Modern Dairy's heifer stock decreasing by over 20,000 heads [2][9]. - **Impact of Feed Prices**: The price of silage is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, which will affect overall milk prices. Unlike last year, silage prices have not further declined, which may impact the profitability of dairy farmers [12]. - **Meat Cycle Influence**: The meat cycle plays a crucial role, with companies like YouRan and Modern Dairy culling about 30% of their breeding cows annually. The income from culling has nearly doubled in the first half of 2025. The domestic beef supply gap is expected to continue until 2027 due to various market pressures [13]. - **International Market and Policy Changes**: The international market is seeing a decline in production from major exporters like Brazil and New Zealand due to drought and rising costs. Domestic policies are also tightening import regulations, which will increase transportation costs and affect the supply chain [14]. - **Profitability Outlook**: The reversal in milk prices and reduction in unit costs are expected to significantly enhance the profitability of dairy companies. If raw milk prices rebound and unit costs remain stable, leading companies could see gross margins improve by up to 10 percentage points [15]. Additional Important Insights - **Future Trends in Dairy Industry**: The current rebound in milk prices suggests better-than-expected demand. The supply side is also expected to perform well, with significant culling and replenishment of breeding cows. Valuation metrics indicate strong potential for profitability and growth in the dairy sector, with historical price-to-book ratios suggesting room for upward movement [16].