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如何解读近期部分城市二手房市场回暖的现象︱重阳问答
重阳投资· 2026-01-30 07:33
Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery in the second-hand housing market in certain cities is attributed to simultaneous supply and demand factors, with a notable decrease in listings and an increase in transaction volumes and prices [2][3]. Group 1: Supply Factors - The decline in second-hand housing listings is influenced by seasonal factors, as sellers typically withdraw listings before the Spring Festival, anticipating a better market post-holiday [3]. - Additionally, the rapid decline in second-hand housing prices in the latter half of last year has led some homeowners to withdraw listings to protect their asset values or switch to rental options, exacerbating the seasonal impact [3]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand side has seen a shift, with delayed interest in school district properties due to last year's price drops, leading to a concentrated release of demand in the first quarter as school enrollment requirements approach [3]. - There has been a significant increase in the transaction speed of lower-priced properties, with homes priced around 3 million in Shanghai making up over 50% of transactions, indicating a resurgence of first-time buyers in major cities [3]. Group 3: Price Stability and Market Dynamics - The potential stabilization of second-hand housing prices hinges on the sustainability of the decline in listings, as experts anticipate an increase in listings post-Spring Festival [4]. - The current market recovery is characterized by a lack of explicit policy intervention, suggesting that genuine demand is being gradually stimulated, with both first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their homes actively participating in the market [4]. - The market is undergoing a self-regulation process to rebalance supply and demand, indicating a positive trend towards a healthier second-hand housing market [4].