Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Views - Recent fluctuations in aluminum prices have shown an upward trend since the end of September, with domestic aluminum prices increasing by 630 CNY/ton (3% increase) as of November 21, but have decreased by 600 CNY/ton (2.7% decrease) from mid-November highs. The cost of two-piece cans is estimated to have increased by nearly 0.01 CNY per can during this period. The pricing discussions for two-piece cans with domestic clients (mainly beer and herbal tea) are ongoing, with expectations for price adjustments to reflect raw material cost increases [2][4][6] - The acquisition of COFCO Packaging by Aorikin in 2025 has increased the market share of two-piece cans from 43% to 62%, enhancing pricing power within the industry. The integration of production lines and overseas project developments is expected to improve the supply-demand relationship, leading to better profitability in the future [6][7] - The trend of two-piece can exports is accelerating, with leading domestic companies expanding overseas capacities, primarily in Southeast Asia, which is expected to bring revenue growth and optimize profit structures. The profit margins for overseas two-piece can businesses are significantly higher than those in the domestic market [7] Summary by Sections Aluminum Price Trends - As of November 21, domestic aluminum prices have increased by 630 CNY/ton since September 30, while LME aluminum prices have also shown a similar trend with a 4.5% increase. However, both have seen declines from their respective peaks [4][6] Pricing Mechanism - The pricing model for two-piece cans involves adjustments based on raw material costs, with quarterly adjustments reflecting aluminum price changes and annual negotiations for baseline prices with domestic clients. The upcoming negotiations for 2026 prices are expected to incorporate recent aluminum price fluctuations [7][9] Market Dynamics - The domestic two-piece can industry is currently in a loss-making state, with expectations for profitability recovery starting in early 2026 if price negotiations proceed smoothly. The integration of foreign clients into the pricing model is also anticipated to benefit overall profitability [6][7]