Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: August 4, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices rose and then fell, with the month spreads of the three major crude oil markets rising. Trump's warning of secondary tariffs on Russia and the actual decline in Russian crude oil exports have intensified the tension in the current supply and demand of crude oil. However, even in the case of extreme sanctions, it will not change the pattern of oversupply. The market tends to strengthen the near - end month spreads and take a wait - and - see attitude towards the medium - term absolute prices. - OPEC's decision to increase oil production in September led to a rapid decline in oil prices. The Brent crude oil price fell below the $70/barrel mark. - From a fundamental perspective, global oil inventories decreased slightly this week, higher than the same period last year by about 2%. U.S. commercial inventories increased significantly, the number of oil rigs decreased again, gasoline inventories decreased while diesel inventories increased. The uncertainty lies in the intensity of U.S. secondary sanctions on Russia. After OPEC+'s statement, the absolute price of oil is expected to continue to fall, but there is still support in reality. It is expected to fall to $55 - 60/barrel in the fourth quarter [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Oil Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the price of DUBAI crude oil increased by $0.64, the price difference between DUBAI - BRT increased by $0.38, the price of OMAN decreased by $3.40, and the price of Japan naphtha - BRT increased by $14.03. The domestic gasoline price decreased by $60.00, and the HH natural gas price increased by $0.010, while the BFO price decreased by $1.36 [2]. 2. Daily News - It is expected that the actual increase in OPEC+ oil production in September may reach 528,000 barrels per day. Eight OPEC+ members decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting from September, marking a strategic shift from defending oil prices to releasing production capacity, and intensifying the market's expectation of a global supply surplus in the second half of the year [2]. - A member of the Russian Federal Council stated that the global market cannot replace Russia's oil supply, which accounts for about 10% of the global total. Due to U.S. sanctions, at least two ships carrying Russian oil bound for India have changed their routes [2][3]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report for the week of July 25, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, an increase of 1.84%. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.55%. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. U.S. commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [4]. - From July 18 - 24, the operating rate of major refineries in China remained flat, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. The production of gasoline and diesel in Chinese refineries decreased, and the inventories of both increased. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [4].