据悉，有官员最近数周内告诉美国石油企业高管，如果他们"希望就被委内瑞拉政府没收的钻井平台、 管道及其他财产获得赔偿，就必须准备好现在重返委内瑞拉并大规模投资，振兴其遭重创的石油产 业"。 业内人士对政府这一要求持审慎态度，他们担心重建委内瑞拉破败的油田前景不明，而且未来一段时间 内委内瑞拉政局也不明朗。 委内瑞拉被迫削减原油产量。 据央视新闻报道，1月5日，有消息指出，受美国石油封锁及制裁压力影响，委内瑞拉石油出口量几乎降 至零，其国内储油设施接近饱和，委内瑞拉国家石油公司已开始削减原油产量，并启动关闭部分油田和 井组的应急措施。 据了解，美国对委内瑞拉油轮运输实施封锁，导致原油无法外运，原油库存持续累积。同时，用于调和 委内瑞拉重质原油的稀释剂供应日益短缺，进一步制约生产活动。 分析指出，尽管委内瑞拉石油基础设施未在近期美方军事行动中遭到直接破坏，但在出口封锁以及此前 网络攻击尚未完全修复等多重压力下，委内瑞拉国家石油公司维持正常运营面临严峻挑战。原油减产或 将对炼油、国内燃料供应等环节产生连锁影响，加剧国内经济和财政压力。 数据显示，目前滞留在海上无法离港的委内瑞拉原油总量已超过1700万桶。据初步统计， ...

临近中选，打击马杜罗政府有利于巩固和提升基本盘的支持。 多年以来，特朗普致力于塑造马杜罗政 府向美国大量输送非法移民和毒品的形象，MAGA群体对此类叙事尤为买账。另外，美国拉丁裔过往 常年支持民主党，2024年大选因通胀等原因倒向共和党，但是过去一年对特朗普的支持率又快速下 降。以古巴裔和委内瑞拉裔为代表的右翼拉丁裔广泛分布在得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州等地，打击马杜罗 政府将提升这部分群体的好感。 最好的情况是，如果能在委内瑞拉扶植起亲美政权，将有利于特朗普压低油价。 与2024年大选相同， 2026年中选的"题眼"依然是物价。对物价控制不力、底层民众生活成本上升，是特朗普中选面临的最 主要减分项。因此，无论是去年夏天的以伊冲突，还是此次委内瑞拉行动，特朗普都极力避免攻击能源 设施，而是寻求短期性价比最大化，利用美国在情报、渗透、武器等方面的优势，直取要害、扬长而 去。 巩固MAGA基本盘声望和拉动右翼拉丁裔的初级目标已经实现，"强势介入"委内瑞拉石 油产业、释放石油储备潜力的高级目标则遥遥无期。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/赵宏鹤、厉梦颖 特朗普与马杜罗政府的恩怨由来已久。 特朗普在第一任期就表现出门罗主义倾向，对西半 ...

基本内容 特朗普在第一任期就表现出门罗主义倾向，对西半球不够亲美的国家政权在意识形态等方面存在天然的个人好恶。临 近中选，打击马杜罗政府更有利于巩固和提升基本盘的支持。最好的情况是，如果能在委内瑞拉扶植起亲美政权，将 有利于特朗普压低油价。从全球能源版图来看，委内瑞拉拥有极其显著的资源战略地位。然而，由于设施老化和国际 制裁等原因，委内瑞拉的实际产出与储量潜力严重脱节。考虑到委内瑞拉拥有较高的原油释放潜能，不难理解为何特 朗普声称将"强势介入"委内瑞拉石油产业，然而这一愿景首先要依托于美国对委内瑞拉政府的影响力。其次，在"美 国对委内瑞拉影响力显著上升"的假设下，更现实的介入方式并非直接接管油田资产，而是通过规则与交易结构实现 对"可出口原油"的事实控制。如果美国推动"美企控盘式"的委内瑞拉增产，短期油价更可能被"风险溢价+OPEC+ 控制供给节奏"托住甚至回升，而非因增产预期迅速下跌。中期来看，即便委内瑞拉出现"修复型增产"，OPEC+仍有 较大空间通过放缓增产或减少其他地区增量进行对冲，从而使全球基准油价的下行幅度受到抑制。 风险提示 1）事件发生时间较短，委内瑞拉国内政治局势尚不明朗，美委关系走向存在较 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "OPEC+" group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has decided to increase oil supply by 137,000 barrels per day starting in December, while also announcing a pause in production increases from January to March 2026, reflecting a stable global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals [1] Group 1: Production Decisions - OPEC+ will implement the increase based on the additional voluntary adjustment of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023 [1] - The next meeting regarding these adjustments is scheduled for November 30 [1] - The group has decided to suspend production increases for January, February, and March 2026 due to seasonal factors [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The announcement has raised concerns in the market about potential oversupply leading to a drop in oil prices [1] - However, the new sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russian oil companies and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela may alleviate market worries regarding supply issues [1]

Core Insights - OPEC maintains its global oil demand forecast, projecting an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 1.4 million bpd by 2026, consistent with previous predictions [1] - The OPEC+ alliance continues to increase oil production, with a total output rise of 524,000 bpd in September, reaching 28.44 million bpd, and a total OPEC+ output increase of 630,000 bpd to 43.05 million bpd [1] - OPEC has begun to gradually lift the production cuts implemented in 2023, with a total of approximately 1.65 million bpd being phased out, following the complete cancellation of a 2.2 million bpd reduction agreement in September [1] Production and Market Dynamics - OPEC+ plans to maintain oil production levels in November, increasing daily output by 137,000 bpd, which alleviates market concerns about significant production hikes [1] - Market observers note that since OPEC+ began increasing production in April, the decline in oil prices has not been as significant as expected, with Brent crude futures dropping 18% over the past year, largely following the initial production increase announcement [2] - OPEC forecasts that non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries, driven by the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, will see an increase in supply of 810,000 bpd this year and 630,000 bpd next year, aligning with previous estimates [2]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC and eight major non-OPEC oil-producing countries have decided to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, adjusting from previous voluntary cuts [1] Group 1: Production Decisions - The countries involved in the decision include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman [1] - The increase in production is a response to the stable global economic outlook and low oil inventory levels [1] - The adjustment is a recalibration of the previously announced voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day made in April 2023 [1] Group 2: Market Stability - The eight countries will flexibly adjust the pace of production increases based on market conditions to maintain oil market stability [1] - The same production increase of 137,000 barrels per day will also apply for October [1]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is expected to confirm an increase in oil production quotas for November, despite market predictions of a global supply surplus in the coming years [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ is set to decide on the oil production quota levels for November on October 5 [1] - The market anticipates an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day in November's oil production [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite expectations of oversupply, OPEC+ remains committed to expanding production [1] - Last week, international oil prices experienced a cumulative decline of nearly 8%, marking the largest weekly drop since June [1] - WTI crude oil futures approached the $60 mark, reaching a four-month low [1]

Group 1 - OPEC+ has agreed to a slight increase in oil production for November [1] - The increase is set at 137,000 barrels per day [1] - This decision will be approved in the upcoming meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - Eight OPEC+ countries are expected to increase oil output, with Saudi Arabia advocating for a significant rise to regain market share, while Russia is proposing a more modest increase [1] Group 1 - The discussions among OPEC+ members indicate a potential rise in oil production [1] - Saudi Arabia's push for a large increase reflects its strategy to reclaim market share lost to competitors [1] - Russia's suggestion for a more conservative increase highlights differing strategies within the OPEC+ coalition [1]

Core Insights - International oil prices are experiencing a decline, with WTI crude nearing the $60 mark, marking a four-month low due to concerns over demand from the U.S. government shutdown and potential production increases from OPEC+ [1] Supply Side Outlook - OPEC+ is scheduled to hold an online meeting on October 5 to discuss production levels for November, with the organization accounting for about half of global oil production [2] - Since April, OPEC+ has abandoned its production cut strategy, with a total reduction of 5.85 million barrels per day at its peak, now moving towards increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October [2][3] - Despite ongoing production increases, OPEC+ has only achieved 75% of its production increase target from April to August, falling short by nearly 500,000 barrels per day [3] - Iraq has resumed oil exports through a pipeline to Turkey after a two-and-a-half-year hiatus, potentially adding up to 230,000 barrels per day to international markets [3] Geopolitical Disturbances - Geopolitical factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are expected to significantly impact oil prices, with Russia implementing partial bans on diesel exports and facing fuel shortages [4] - The potential for sanctions against Russia's oil sector and the ongoing conflict complicate the situation, with Russian oil exports nearing their lowest levels since 2020 [4] - Iran's oil exports are also under scrutiny due to renewed sanctions, with an average daily export of over 1.6 million barrels expected from June to August 2025 [5] Market Outlook - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its global oil demand growth forecast for this year from 685,000 barrels per day to 737,000 barrels per day, while also increasing supply growth expectations [6] - OPEC maintains its oil demand forecast, expecting a daily increase of 1.29 million barrels this year, supported by resilient consumer spending in major economies [7] - The global economic growth forecast remains stable at 3% for this year and 3.1% for next year, with OPEC emphasizing the importance of meeting oil demand consistently [7]