光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心下移，其中 WTI 9月合约收盘下跌 1.04 美元至 66.29 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.54%。布伦特 10 月合约收盘下跌 0.91 美元至 68.76 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.31%。SC2509 以 510.2 元/桶收盘，下跌 6.6 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅 1.28%。OPEC+周日同意将 9 月的石油产量提高 54.7 万 | | | | 桶/日，这是 OPEC+为夺回市场份额而实施的一系列加速增产行 | | | | 动中的最新举措，其理由是经济健康和库存低。此举符合市场预 | | | | 期，并标志着 OPEC+全面提前解除了其最大规模的减产协议，加 | | | | 250 万桶/日，约占全球需求量的 2.4%。 上阿联酋单独增产，合计约 | | | 原油 | 美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文表示，印度不仅 | 震荡 | | | 大量购买俄罗斯石油，还将其中大部分石油在 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: August 4, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices rose and then fell, with the month spreads of the three major crude oil markets rising. Trump's warning of secondary tariffs on Russia and the actual decline in Russian crude oil exports have intensified the tension in the current supply and demand of crude oil. However, even in the case of extreme sanctions, it will not change the pattern of oversupply. The market tends to strengthen the near - end month spreads and take a wait - and - see attitude towards the medium - term absolute prices. - OPEC's decision to increase oil production in September led to a rapid decline in oil prices. The Brent crude oil price fell below the $70/barrel mark. - From a fundamental perspective, global oil inventories decreased slightly this week, higher than the same period last year by about 2%. U.S. commercial inventories increased significantly, the number of oil rigs decreased again, gasoline inventories decreased while diesel inventories increased. The uncertainty lies in the intensity of U.S. secondary sanctions on Russia. After OPEC+'s statement, the absolute price of oil is expected to continue to fall, but there is still support in reality. It is expected to fall to $55 - 60/barrel in the fourth quarter [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Oil Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the price of DUBAI crude oil increased by $0.64, the price difference between DUBAI - BRT increased by $0.38, the price of OMAN decreased by $3.40, and the price of Japan naphtha - BRT increased by $14.03. The domestic gasoline price decreased by $60.00, and the HH natural gas price increased by $0.010, while the BFO price decreased by $1.36 [2]. 2. Daily News - It is expected that the actual increase in OPEC+ oil production in September may reach 528,000 barrels per day. Eight OPEC+ members decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting from September, marking a strategic shift from defending oil prices to releasing production capacity, and intensifying the market's expectation of a global supply surplus in the second half of the year [2]. - A member of the Russian Federal Council stated that the global market cannot replace Russia's oil supply, which accounts for about 10% of the global total. Due to U.S. sanctions, at least two ships carrying Russian oil bound for India have changed their routes [2][3]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report for the week of July 25, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, an increase of 1.84%. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.55%. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. U.S. commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [4]. - From July 18 - 24, the operating rate of major refineries in China remained flat, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. The production of gasoline and diesel in Chinese refineries decreased, and the inventories of both increased. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [4].

声明说，鉴于当前市场基本面稳健，石油库存处于低位，8国决定调整产量。同时，8国将根据市场情况 灵活调整增产节奏，以维护石油市场稳定。上述国家8月日均增产54.8万桶。 上述8国2023年11月宣布日均220万桶的自愿减产措施，此后减产措施多次延期，于2024年12月延长至 2025年3月底。8国今年3月决定自4月1日起逐步增加石油产量。 新华财经维也纳8月4日电（记者孟凡宇）石油输出国组织（欧佩克）3日发表声明说，欧佩克和非欧佩 克产油国中的8个主要产油国决定9月日均增产54.7万桶。 沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼的代表当天举行线上 会议，讨论国际石油市场形势及前景。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is significantly increasing oil production to regain market share amid a growing supply surplus, marking a shift from price stabilization to increased output [4][6]. Group 1: Production Increase - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, completing a reversal of a 2.2 million barrels per day cut implemented by eight member countries in 2023 [4][11]. - The decision to increase production is influenced by geopolitical tensions and strong seasonal demand, which has helped stabilize oil and gasoline futures prices [6][11]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The oil market is facing a significant oversupply, with predictions of a surplus of 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter due to increased supply from the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana [15]. - Brent crude oil futures have fallen below $70 per barrel, reflecting a 6.7% decline for the year, indicating market volatility and potential price drops [12][15]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - Saudi Arabia's primary goal is to reclaim market share lost to US shale producers during years of production cuts, with its August OPEC+ quota reaching 9.756 million barrels per day, nearly the highest level in two years [15]. - The shift in strategy may have financial implications for Saudi Arabia, as the IMF estimates that the country needs oil prices above $90 per barrel to balance its budget, raising concerns about an expanding fiscal deficit [15].

Core Viewpoint - Major oil-producing countries are planning to significantly increase production in September, following a series of voluntary production cuts that were extended until March 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Production Plans - Eight major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and the UAE, are expected to approve an increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in a meeting on August 3 [1]. - These countries had previously announced a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million bpd in November 2023, which has been extended multiple times [1]. - After deciding to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, these countries increased production by 411,000 bpd in July and 548,000 bpd in August [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market has already anticipated the news of increased production [2]. - On August 1, international oil prices saw a significant decline, with ICE Brent crude falling over 3% and WTI crude dropping by 2.89% [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The timing of OPEC+'s latest production increase decision is notable, occurring amidst increased U.S. pressure on Russian and Iranian oil exports [4]. - The U.S. has intensified economic pressure on Russia and has requested countries like Brazil and India to reduce or stop importing Russian oil, although these requests have been rejected [4]. - On July 30, the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on a shipping network controlled by Iranian oil merchant Mohammad Hossein Shahriari, marking the largest sanctions since the "maximum pressure" campaign began in 2018 [4].

新华社维也纳8月3日电（记者孟凡宇）石油输出国组织（欧佩克）3日发表声明说，欧佩克和非欧佩克 产油国中的8个主要产油国决定9月日均增产54.7万桶。 上述8国2023年11月宣布日均220万桶的自愿减产措施，此后减产措施多次延期，于2024年12月延长至 2025年3月底。8国今年3月决定自4月1日起逐步增加石油产量。（完） 声明说，鉴于当前市场基本面稳健，石油库存处于低位，8国决定调整产量。同时，8国将根据市场情况 灵活调整增产节奏，以维护石油市场稳定。上述国家8月日均增产54.8万桶。 沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼的代表当天举行线上 会议，讨论国际石油市场形势及前景。 ...

Group 1 - Major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and the UAE, plan to approve a significant production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September during a meeting on August 3 [1] - These countries had previously announced a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day in November 2023, which has been extended multiple times until March 2025 [1] - The production increase follows a gradual return to higher output levels, with a previous increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July and the planned increase for August [1] Group 2 - The market has already anticipated the news of the production increase [2] - On August 1, international oil prices saw a significant decline, with ICE Brent crude dropping over 3% and WTI crude falling by 2.89% [3] - Current trading data shows WTI crude at $67.26, down by $2.00, and ICE Brent crude at $69.52, down by $2.18 [4][5] Group 3 - The timing of OPEC+'s production increase decision is notable, occurring amidst increased U.S. pressure on Russia and Iran regarding their oil exports [6] - The U.S. has intensified economic pressure on Russia and has requested countries like Brazil and India to reduce or halt oil imports from Russia [6] - Recent U.S. sanctions against Iran's oil network represent the largest scale of sanctions since 2018, targeting over 50 entities and individuals [6]

Core Viewpoint - Major oil-producing countries, including OPEC and non-OPEC members, are planning to approve a significant production increase in September, following a series of voluntary production cuts that began in November 2023 [2]. Group 1: Production Increase Plans - Eight major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and the UAE, are set to approve an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September during a meeting on August 3 [2]. - These countries had previously announced a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day in November 2023, which has been extended multiple times until March 2025 [2]. - Following the decision to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, 2024, these countries increased production by 411,000 barrels per day in July and 548,000 barrels per day in August [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market has already anticipated the news of the production increase, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices on August 1, with ICE Brent crude falling over 3% and WTI crude down 2.89% [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The decision to increase production comes amid heightened pressure from the U.S. on Russia and Iran regarding their oil exports, with the U.S. urging countries like Brazil and India to reduce or stop imports of Russian oil [6][7]. - The U.S. Treasury Department has recently imposed sanctions on a shipping network linked to Iranian oil merchants, marking the largest scale of sanctions since the "maximum pressure" campaign began in 2018 [7].

Group 1 - OPEC+ has agreed to significantly increase oil production in September, raising daily output by 548,000 barrels to reclaim its market share in the global crude oil market [1] - Eight major oil-producing countries within OPEC+ announced voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in November 2023, which have been extended multiple times until March 2025 [1] - The recent increase in production marks a strategic shift for OPEC+ from defending oil prices to increasing supply [1] Group 2 - The decision to increase production comes amid a backdrop of U.S. President Trump's threats to impose secondary sanctions on Russian oil exports, which could lead to higher international oil prices [2] - Analysts warn that the market may enter a phase of significant oil oversupply starting in October, urging OPEC+ to be cautious about further increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has agreed to significantly increase oil production, marking a strategic shift from defending oil prices to boosting supply [2][4]. Group 1: Production Increase - OPEC+ will raise oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, completing its current supply recovery plan a year early [1][2]. - Eight major oil-producing countries within OPEC+ had previously announced a voluntary reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day, which has been extended multiple times until March 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The decision to increase production comes amid a backdrop of declining international oil prices, with ICE Brent crude falling over 3% and WTI crude down 2.89% [3][4]. - The increase in production is seen as a response to potential sanctions on Russian oil exports, which could lead to higher oil prices, conflicting with U.S. policy goals [4][5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the market will enter a phase of significant oil oversupply starting in October, urging OPEC+ to be cautious about further increases [6].