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《农产品》日报-20250627
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 02:10
Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian palm oil futures may face downward pressure due to concerns about production recovery and slowing export growth. Domestic palm oil futures are expected to fall further. CBOT soybean oil may continue to decline but with limited跌幅. Domestic soybean oil prices are supported, and basis quotes are expected to be slightly adjusted [1]. Meal Industry - Affected by the decline in crude oil and fully - priced - in short - term positive factors, US soybeans have recently declined. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising. The unilateral trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, and the futures may follow the decline of US soybeans in the short term, but the downside support is expected to strengthen [2]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is still in a shock structure. The current breeding profit is declining, but self - breeding and self - raising still have profits. The market is cautious about expanding production capacity. The short - term futures may be strong, but there is a risk of decline near the delivery of the 09 contract if the live inventory continues to be postponed [4][5]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn price is firm, but the upside is limited due to feed substitution. In the long term, the supply is tight, the import volume is low, and the consumption is increasing, so the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Sugar Industry - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern. If there are no new negative factors, the possibility of a sharp decline in sugar prices is small. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom this week [11][12]. Cotton Industry - The market driving force is still weak, and the downstream开机 rate continues to decline while the finished product inventory rises. However, the basis of old - crop cotton is still relatively strong. The short - term domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range [13]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is still relatively sufficient. The price is expected to rise slightly and then stabilize this week, and may decline slightly later [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On June 26, 2025, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8240 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7626 yuan, down 0.52%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8490 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of P2509 was 8230 yuan, up 0.12%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9680 yuan, down 0.52%; the futures price of 01509 was 9242 yuan, down 0.04% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread was - 250 yuan, unchanged; the 2509 spread was - 360 yuan, unchanged. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1440 yuan, down 3.47%; the 2509 spread was 1492 yuan, down 0.67% [1]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: On June 26, 2025, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2880 yuan, down 0.69%; the futures price of M2509 was 2993 yuan, down 1.90%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2500 yuan, down 2.80%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2588 yuan, down 1.47% [2]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread was 380 yuan, up 13.16%; the 2509 spread was 405 yuan, down 4.69% [2]. Pig Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the pig 2507 contract was 13615 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; the price of the 2509 contract was 14000 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [4]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. The sample - point slaughter volume decreased by 0.75%, the white - strip price decreased by 0.10%, the piglet price increased by 3.17%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 768.97% [4]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the corn 2509 contract was 2377 yuan, up 0.04%. The import profit was 539 yuan, up 4.03%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 60.84% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2732 yuan, down 0.15%. The Shandong starch profit was - 81 yuan, down 17.28% [7]. Sugar Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5577 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; the price of the 2509 contract was 5757 yuan/ton, up 0.57% [11]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6070 yuan/ton, up 0.16%; the price in Kunming was 5860 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 11.63% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales increased by 26.07% [11]. Cotton Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13645 yuan/ton, up 0.55%; the price of the 2601 contract was 13625 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14832 yuan/ton, up 0.84%; the CC Index: 3128B was 14938 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The inventory in the north decreased by 9.6% month - on - month, and the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 22.6% [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the egg 09 contract was 3658 yuan/500KG, up 0.05%; the price of the 07 contract was 2848 yuan/500KG, down 0.84% [15]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.78 yuan/jin, down 0.74%. The breeding profit was - 27.88 yuan/feather, down 19.30% [15].