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广发期货《农产品》日报-20260401
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:12
1. Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Fats and Oils - Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 biodiesel policy this year and the decline in Malaysia's palm oil production in March may drive up BMD palm oil prices. However, China's port palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the demand is weak. The import is still at a loss, which supports the futures market. For soybean oil, the expected increase in the US soybean planting area and inventory may suppress the market, while the domestic oil mill's开机率 is decreasing, and the inventory is mixed. For rapeseed oil, affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's B50 policy, the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil mainly follows the international market and maintains a volatile adjustment pattern [1]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures have fallen back from their five - month high, and the sugar price is affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle - East and fuel policies in Brazil. In the domestic market, the beet sugar production is in line with expectations, and the cane sugar production exceeds expectations. The current supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the sugar price is supported by the futures price. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [2]. Cotton - The increase in the US cotton planting area in 2026 has led to a decline in ICE cotton futures. The upward space of domestic cotton prices is restricted by the external market. The "Golden March" peak season is coming to an end, and the new orders of textile enterprises have decreased significantly. The inventory removal rhythm of yarn has slowed down, and the raw material replenishment of enterprises is cautious. However, the low inventory of downstream products supports the bottom of cotton prices. Future attention should be paid to downstream orders, new - year planting areas, and weather conditions [3]. Red Dates - The jujube production areas are in the dormant period, and the market is in the off - season. The purchase and sales in the main sales areas are light, the price is loose, the consumer demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The futures warehouse receipts registration has decreased year - on - year. It is expected that the short - term futures price will maintain a low - level shock operation. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas [4]. Apples - The pre - Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the apple shipment speed has decreased. The performance of production areas is divided. The price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi is firm, while the ordinary apples in Shandong are under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and it is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather in the main production areas on the far - month contracts [5]. Corn - In the corn market, the temperature in the Northeast has warmed up, and the willingness of grain - holding entities to sell has increased, but the decline is limited due to the limited remaining grain and the strong price - holding attitude of traders. In North China, the price is stable as the grain - holding entities are reluctant to sell. On the demand side, the inventory in the northern port has been replenished, and the demand has weakened marginally. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased but is still low, and the feed enterprises purchase on a rigid basis, with an increasing substitution of wheat. The supply pressure is gradually released, and the market stabilizes and rebounds slightly, but the policy - related grain supply and substitution limit the rebound space [8]. Meal - After the USDA released the US soybean planting area report, the US soybean planting area was increased but slightly lower than market expectations, and the market was boosted. However, the domestic soybean meal market has already factored in concerns about local shutdowns and supply continuity, and the sentiment has cooled. The downstream inventory is relatively sufficient, and the spot trading has declined. Although the overall short - term inventory is not loose, the capital speculation is weak, and the pig price is weak, so the soybean meal lacks effective support [10]. Pigs - The pig price has shown a weakening trend again after a brief stabilization. Secondary fattening and end - of - month supply reduction have some support for the price, but the space is limited. The breeding side still resists price cuts, and there is no active capacity reduction. The futures market has fallen across the board, and the far - month contracts are more affected by concerns about over - capacity. Currently, the capacity reduction is slow, the supply of piglets is sufficient, and the farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment is low. Although the short - term market may be boosted by secondary fattening sentiment, the high feed price and limited profit space for large pigs require further observation. The futures market may continue to decline under capacity pressure [12]. Eggs - On the supply side, the number of old hens being culled is increasing slightly, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the overall egg supply is stable. On the demand side, as the pre - Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking ends, the demand support weakens, and the shipment speed in some production areas slows down. The overall egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock and weakening trend [15]. 3. Summary by Directory Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: On March 31, the price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 9000 yuan, with a 0.22% increase; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 160 yuan to 9855 yuan, with a 1.65% increase; the price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 22 yuan to 10282 yuan, with a 0.21% decrease [1]. - **Inventory and Basis**: The inventory and basis of various oils have changed. For example, the soybean oil basis increased by 24.81%, and the palm oil basis decreased by 0.64% [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different varieties and different periods of oils have also changed. For example, the soybean - palm oil spot spread decreased by 19.58%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil 2605 spread increased by 3.31% [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of sugar 2605 was 5438 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan, a 0.79% decrease; the price of sugar 2609 was 5431 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan, a 0.66% decrease [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, and the basis of Nanning and Kunming increased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production and sales in the country and Guangxi decreased year - on - year, the industrial inventory increased, and the sugar import increased significantly [2]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of cotton 2605 was 15295 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan, a 0.65% decrease; the price of cotton 2609 was 15430 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan, a 0.64% decrease [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased slightly, while the spread between CC Index: 3128B and FC Index:M: 1% decreased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased to 0, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, the import volume decreased by 19.0%, and the inventory of yarn and grey cloth changed slightly. The retail sales of clothing and textiles increased, but the export volume decreased [3]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of jujube 2605 was 8750 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, a 0.28% decrease; the price of jujube 2607 was 8925 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan, a 0.39% decrease; the price of jujube 2609 was 9110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, a 0.55% decrease [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade jujubes changed slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts decreased slightly, with a total of 4400 as of March 31, equivalent to 22,000 tons of jujubes [4]. Apples - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of apple 2605 was 9826 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan, a 0.38% decrease; the price of apple 2610 was 8743 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, a 0.23% decrease [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different production areas showed different trends, with high - quality apples in Shaanxi being firm and ordinary apples in Shandong under pressure [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival**: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the arrival volume in some fruit markets increased [5]. Corn - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of corn 2605 in Jinzhou Port was 2351 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, a 0.21% increase; the price of corn starch 2605 was 2745 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan, a 0.29% increase [8]. - **Spot Market**: The market price in Shekou Port remained unchanged, and the north - south trade profit remained stable [8]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong decreased, and the overall supply - demand situation was affected by factors such as the willingness of grain - holding entities to sell and the demand of downstream enterprises [8]. Meal - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of soybean meal M2605 was 2915 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan, a 0.75% decrease; the price of rapeseed meal RM2605 was 2299 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan, a 0.91% decrease [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Jiangsu decreased slightly [10]. - **Spread and Profit**: The spreads between different varieties and different periods of meal and the oil - meal ratio changed slightly, and the import crushing profit decreased [10]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of live - pig 2605 was 9770 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan, a 2.35% decrease; the price of live - pig 2607 was 10730 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan, a 3.03% decrease [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with some regions rising and some falling [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: The slaughter volume increased, the prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged, the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased, and the inventory of breeding sows decreased [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On April 1, 2026, the price of egg 04 contract was 3200 yuan/500KG, down 69 yuan, a 2.11% decrease; the price of egg 05 contract was 3440 yuan/500KG, down 13 yuan, a 0.38% decrease [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg production area price decreased, and the basis decreased significantly [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings increased, the price of culled chickens decreased, the egg - feed ratio increased, and the breeding profit increased [15].
《农产品》日报-20260331
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 05:24
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - In the palm oil market, due to the recovery of MPOA production and concerns about the slowdown in export growth, there is a risk of the crude palm oil futures stalling and falling around 4,800 ringgit. Domestically, with the strong performance of international crude oil futures, attention should be paid to whether the Dalian palm oil futures can effectively break through the 10,000 - yuan mark [1]. - For soybean oil, the Trump administration's order to increase the proportion of bio - fuels in gasoline and diesel in the US provides short - term upward momentum for CBOT soybean oil. In China, the plan of the Indonesian B50 biodiesel project and the decrease in domestic soybean oil inventory due to lower factory operating rates support the futures market, but the weak procurement and stable basis quotes show a mixed situation [1]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, market rumors of the second batch of Australian seed crushing commercial pilot opening and the increase in the proportion of palm - oil - blended diesel in Indonesia from 40% to 50% in 2026 have boosted the market. The Zhengzhou rapeseed oil 05 contract is in a wide - range shock around 9,800 yuan, with the upper pressure at 10,000 yuan. The spot market is in a wait - and - see state [1]. 2.2 Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose, reaching a six - month high, supported by the overall optimistic sentiment in CBOT grain futures, crude oil, and the stock market. In the Mississippi Delta, farmers may switch to more profitable soybeans due to low cotton prices and high input costs, and the cotton planting area may reach a ten - year low. The market estimates the planting area to be 9.229 million acres, lower than the previous expectation. In China, the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference limits the upside of domestic cotton. The "Golden March" peak season is ending, with fewer new orders for spinning mills, slower yarn de - stocking, and some mills reducing their operating rates. The "Silver April" order sustainability is uncertain, but the low downstream inventory provides support for cotton prices [2]. 2.3 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures closed lower after reaching a five - month high. A moderate correction is expected after the 18% increase since early March. Thailand plans to use 150,000 tons of raw sugar for ethanol production. Brazil has the flexibility to adjust sugar production. Before the geopolitical situation eases, raw sugar prices may remain high and volatile. In China, the beet sugar production is in line with expectations, and the cane sugar production exceeds expectations. The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price is supported by futures, expected to remain high and volatile [4]. 2.4 Red Dates - The jujube market is in the consumption off - season, with light trading in the main sales areas. The prices are weakening, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory pressure is evident, and the futures warehouse receipts registration has decreased year - on - year. The short - term futures price is expected to remain low and volatile [6]. 2.5 Apples - The apple spot market shows a differentiated trend, with good - quality apples having firm prices and ordinary apples facing de - stocking pressure. The downstream Qingming Festival stocking is less than expected, and the apple shipment speed has decreased. The market sentiment has weakened due to capital withdrawal. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather in the main producing areas on the far - month contracts [7][11]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch - The current grain sales progress is slower than last year. With the warming temperature and the decline in futures prices, the enthusiasm of grain - holding entities to sell has increased. The continuous release of policy wheat and the expected auction of directional rice have weakened the bullish sentiment, and the price is under pressure. However, the price decline may be limited due to the strong price - holding attitude of traders. On the demand side, the deep - processing inventory has increased but is still low, and feed enterprises have rigid demand for corn, with an increasing substitution of wheat. In general, the short - term corn price is weak, but the limited remaining grain and the rigid demand of downstream enterprises support the price. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the directional rice release [15]. 2.7 Meal - US soybeans find support around 1,160 cents but lack upward momentum. After the bio - diesel policy is implemented, funds take profits. The crude oil price fluctuates due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. In China, the concerns about local shutdowns and supply continuity in the soybean meal market have been fully priced in, and the trading sentiment has cooled. The downstream inventory is relatively sufficient, and the spot trading volume has declined recently. Although the overall inventory is still not loose, the speculation sentiment is weak. There is a bearish expectation of an increase in soybean planting area, but the risk is relatively limited [17]. 2.8 Pigs - Pig prices show signs of stabilizing. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening in the north has increased significantly, while the south is still observing, which has a certain positive impact on market sentiment. The 05 contract of the futures market rebounded, but the far - month contracts are worried about the slow weight reduction and the decline in piglet prices. The current capacity reduction is slow, the supply of piglets is sufficient, and the enthusiasm of farmers to replenish piglets is lower than last year. Although the short - term market price may be boosted by secondary fattening sentiment, the high feed price and limited profit space for large pigs require further observation of the support for secondary fattening sentiment. The 05 contract may have bottomed out, but the far - month contracts may decline further under capacity pressure [19]. 2.9 Eggs - On the supply side, the number of old hens being culled by the breeding industry is increasing slightly, and the overall egg supply remains stable due to the high inventory of laying hens, the increase in newly - laid hens, and the resumption of laying by molting hens. On the demand side, as the Qingming Festival stocking comes to an end, the demand support weakens, the shipment speed in some production areas slows down, and the downstream is more cautious in purchasing. The overall egg market transaction is mediocre, and the egg price is expected to remain low and volatile [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Futures Prices**: On March 30, the price of Y2605 soybean oil futures was 8,714 yuan, up 0.30% from March 27; the price of P2605 palm oil futures was 9,768 yuan, up 1.66%; the price of OI605 rapeseed oil futures was 9,891 yuan, up 0.14% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,980 yuan, down 0.11% from March 27; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,930 yuan, up 0.36%; the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,304 yuan, down 0.02% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Y2605 soybean oil was - 36 yuan; the basis of P2605 palm oil was - 235 yuan; the basis of OI605 rapeseed oil was 413 yuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of palm oil in China was 1.4 million tons, the inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushing plants was 1.2072 million tons, and the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal crushing plants was not clearly stated [1]. 3.2 Cotton - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of cotton 2605 was 15,385 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous value; the price of cotton 2609 was 15,515 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 130 yuan/ton, down 4.00%. The main contract's open interest was 515,084 lots, down 3.03%. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,435, up 0.01%, and the valid forecasts were 371, up 9.44% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,656 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the CC Index of 3128B was 16,823 yuan/ton, up 0.05%; the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,489 yuan/ton, up 1.65% [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 0.00 million tons, down 100.0% from the previous value; the industrial inventory was 102.40 million tons, up 14.5%. The import volume was 16.65 million tons, down 19.0%; the bonded area inventory was 47.10 million tons, up 9.8%. The yarn inventory days were 21.45 days, down 1.2%; the grey fabric inventory days were 33.24 days, up 0.3%. The spinning mill C32s immediate processing profit was - 2,225.30 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 166.10 billion yuan, up 7.7%; the year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles was 0.60, down 82.9%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was 1.1383 billion US dollars, down 9.5%; the export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.1061 billion US dollars, down 19.9% [2]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of sugar 2605 was 5,441 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous value; the price of sugar 2609 was 5,467 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 26 yuan/ton, down 13.04%. The main contract's open interest was 304,083 lots, down 2.81%. The number of warehouse receipts was 16,862, up 3.18%, and the valid forecasts were 0, down 100.00% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5,480 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the price in Kunming was 5,325 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Nanning basis was 39 yuan/ton, up 550.00%; the Kunming basis was - 116 yuan/ton, up 16.55%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) was 4,364 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) was 5,540 yuan/ton, down 0.45% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 4.69% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 27.39%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 5.6513 million tons, down 8.36%; the sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.6223 million tons, up 20.16%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 23.72%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 35.25%, down 24.60%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Yunnan was 795,900 tons, up 17.42%. The sugar import volume was 240,000 tons, up 1100.00%. The national industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons [4]. 3.4 Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of jujube 2605 (main contract) was 8,775 yuan/ton, down 1.07% from the previous value; the price of jujube 2607 was 8,960 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the price of jujube 2609 was 9,160 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 185 yuan/ton, down 42.31%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 385 yuan/ton, down 10.00%. The open interest was 165,841 lots, down 1.70%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,273, unchanged; the valid forecasts were 131, up 43.96%; the sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 4,404, up 0.92% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade jujubes was 9,080 yuan/ton, down 0.22%; the price of first - grade jujubes was 7,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of second - grade jujubes was 6,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Cangzhou's special - grade jujubes to the main contract was - 295 yuan/ton, up 20.27%; the basis of first - grade jujubes to the main contract was 325 yuan/ton, up 41.30% [6]. 3.5 Apples - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of apple 2605 (main contract) was 9,863 yuan/ton, down 1.04% from the previous value; the price of apple 2610 was 8,763 yuan/ton, down 0.05%. The basis was - 1,525 yuan/ton, down 6.35%; the 5 - 10 spread was 1,100 yuan/ton, down 8.33%. The open interest was 81,103 lots, down 7.24% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market was 25 vehicles, up 13.64%; the arrival volume at Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market was 11 vehicles, unchanged; the arrival volume at Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market was 14 vehicles, up 7.69%. The national cold - storage inventory was 4.4179 million tons, down 5.69% [7]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On March 31, the price of corn 2605 at Jinzhou Port was 2,346 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from the previous value; the basis was 34 yuan/ton, up 209.09%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, down 6.67%. The market price at Shekou Port was 2,480 yuan/ton, down 0.40%. The north - south trade profit was 9 yuan, down 68.97%. The Brazilian arrival duty - paid price was 2,366 yuan/ton, down 1.20%. The import profit was 114 yuan, up 19.70%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning was 891, down 32.55%. The trading volume was 2,032,676 lots, down 1.04%. The number of warehouse receipts was 58,377, down 1.68% [15]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 was 2,737 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous value; the average price of corn starch was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. The basis was 227 yuan/ton, up 7.08%. The spot price in Weifang was 2,980 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the spot price in Changchun was 2,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 5 - 9 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, up 33.33%. The 05 spread between starch and corn on the disk was 391 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The Shandong starch profit was 13 yuan, up 85.71%. The open interest was 386,073 lots, up 0.23%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,510, down 3.01% [15]. 3.7 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3,240 yuan, unchanged. The price of M2605 futures was 2,937 yuan, unchanged. The basis of M2605 was 303 yuan,
棕油劲升、豆粕下挫
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 12:30
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. Palm oil is expected to be strong due to Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy and supply - demand factors. In contrast, soybean meal, eggs, and far - month hog contracts are likely to be weak. Cotton is in a high - level volatile state, and sugar has a large - amplitude shock [1][2][3][5][8][9][12]. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2605 contract is strongly rising. Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 policy and the US EPA's increase in renewable diesel production are positive factors. From March 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 11.21% month - on - month, while exports increased by 50.6% month - on - month. The strategy is to go long on dips with a support level of 9756 - 9800 [2]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal near - month main 2605 contract continues to decline, and the 2609 contract breaks through the support. The expected relaxation of Brazilian soybean import quarantine procedures will increase supply, while downstream demand is weak. The strategy is to close long positions in the 2609 contract and go short lightly [3]. Eggs - The egg main 2605 contract gaps down. After the Ching Ming Festival, demand weakens, and the high egg - laying hen inventory puts pressure on prices. The strategy is to close long positions [5]. Cotton - The cotton main 2609 contract first rises and then falls, running at a high level. The expected decrease in sowing area, the substitution advantage of cotton, and the peak consumption season support the price, but downstream replenishment is cautious. The strategy is to hold long positions with a support level of 15450 - 15480 [8]. Hogs - The hog main 2605 contract rebounds slightly at a low level, while far - month contracts decline significantly. The slow reduction of sows and weak demand lead to a supply - demand imbalance. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 2605 contract [9][11]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main 2605 contract first rises and then falls, with large fluctuations. Tensions in the Middle East push up oil prices, which may change the sugar - making ratio in major sugar - producing countries, but domestic supply is sufficient. The strategy is to close long positions and trade short - term [12][15].
《农产品》日报-20260330
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 09:28
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - In the second quarter, Southeast Asian palm oil enters the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and domestic oil mills'开机率 rebounds. Supply of palm and rapeseed oil will increase significantly, while demand is in the off - season, with weak downstream demand and lack of restocking motivation. Inventory pressure may re - accumulate, and the market will turn to a loose state. The EPA's new bio - fuel regulations have a certain drag on CBOT soybean oil. Rapeseed oil may test the 10,000 - yuan mark and then weaken again [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry - USDA export sales are stable, and shipment speed is accelerating. The estimated cotton planting area is lower than expected, and the drought in the main producing areas is intensifying. Domestically, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is high, and the "Golden March" peak season is ending. Spinning mills' new orders are decreasing, and yarn de - stocking is slowing down. However, the downstream finished product inventory is low, and the cotton price has strong support. Future key variables include downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather in producing areas [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - Energy cost increase and risk perception boost speculative short - covering in the sugar market, supporting raw sugar prices. Thailand plans to use 150,000 tons of raw sugar for ethanol production. Brazil has flexibility in adjusting sugar production and ethanol production. Before geopolitical tensions ease, raw sugar prices may remain high and volatile. Domestically, sugar production is expected to exceed 1.2 million tons, with strong supply and weak demand. Sugar prices are supported by futures prices and are expected to remain high and volatile [4][5]. 2.4 Jujube Industry - Boosted by macro funds, the futures market rebounds slightly. The jujube market is in the off - season, with weak consumption and obvious inventory pressure. Futures warehouse receipts are registered less year - on - year. Short - term futures prices are expected to remain low and volatile. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main producing areas [6]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The apple spot market shows a differentiated situation, with high - quality goods in short supply and firm prices, while ordinary goods in Shandong have inventory pressure. Downstream Qingming Festival stocking is less than expected, and the shipment speed decreases. The market sentiment weakens due to capital outflow. Short - term futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the impact of the weather in the main producing areas on far - month contracts [10][14]. 2.6 Corn Industry - In the Northeast, the sale of damp corn continues, and prices decline due to the futures price callback. In North China, the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing enterprises increases, and enterprises lower purchase prices. On the demand side, deep - processing inventory is low but there is purchasing intention, and feed enterprises have rigid demand. Wheat substitution is increasing, and policy wheat auctions suppress corn demand. Short - term corn prices will be under pressure, but limited remaining grain and rigid demand will limit the decline. Attention should be paid to the 2330 - 2350 support level and subsequent policy announcements [19]. 2.7 Meal Industry - U.S. soybeans find support at around 1160 cents but lack upward momentum. Domestic soybean meal has fully priced in concerns about local shutdowns and supply continuity. Sentiment has cooled, and spot trading has declined. Overall inventory is not loose, but there is limited speculation. Waiting for the planting intention report on March 31st, there is a short - term negative expectation of increased soybean planting area, but the risk is limited [23]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The futures market is declining, and the spot market remains weak. There is a large volume of pig slaughter, and the slaughter weight is high. In the off - season of demand, downstream procurement recovers slowly. Slaughter volume has increased slightly, but the terminal market has difficulty in circulation, and slaughterhouses are forced to store in warehouses. The entry of second - fattening and frozen product storage is cautious. The spot market is expected to remain weak in April. The futures market is in a backwardation pattern, and attention should be paid to 5 - 7 or 5 - 9 reverse spread opportunities [24]. 2.9 Egg Industry - Supply is stable as the number of laying hens is high, new - laying hens increase, and molting hens resume laying. Demand is boosted by pre - holiday supermarket promotions, but school procurement may stagnate during the holiday. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly and then fluctuate [26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Price Changes**: On March 27, compared with March 26, soybean oil spot prices in Jiangsu rose 40 yuan to 8990 yuan, with a 0.45% increase; palm oil spot prices in Guangdong rose 57 yuan to 9603 yuan, with a 0.59% increase; rapeseed oil spot prices in Jiangsu rose 38 yuan to 10306 yuan, with a 0.37% increase [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean oil 05 - 09 spread remained unchanged at 58; the palm oil 05 - 09 spread increased from 4 to 44, with a 1000% increase; the rapeseed oil 05 - 09 spread decreased from 102 to 97, with a 4.9% decrease [1]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the second quarter, palm oil and rapeseed oil supply will increase, while demand is in the off - season, and inventory pressure may re - accumulate [1]. 3.2 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, cotton 2605 rose 0.36% to 12392 yuan/ton, cotton 2609 rose 0.42% to 15530 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased 8% to - 135 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: Xinjiang 3128B arrival price rose 0.34% to 16653 yuan/ton, CC Index: 3128B rose 0.41% to 16814 yuan/ton, and FC Index: M: 1% rose 2.3% to 13472 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased 100% to 0, industrial inventory increased 14.5% to 102.4 million tons, and import volume decreased 19% to 16.65 [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, sugar 2605 rose 0.02% to 5464 yuan/ton, sugar 2609 rose 0.04% to 5487 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased 4.55% to - 23 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Market**: Domestic sugar prices remained unchanged, and Brazilian imported sugar prices (quota - free) increased 1.24% to 5565 yuan/ton [4]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production decreased 4.69% to 926 million tons, and sales decreased 27.39% to 345 million tons [4]. 3.4 Jujube Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, jujube 2605 rose 0.4% to 8870 yuan/ton, jujube 2607 rose 0.28%, and jujube 2609 rose 0.49% to 9220 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Market**: Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade jujube spot prices remained unchanged [6]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the inventory of 36 sample points was 11459 tons, a decrease of 81 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.5 Apple Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, apple 2605 rose 0.21% to 9967 yuan/ton, apple 2610 rose 0.96% to 8767 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased 4.91% to 1262 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Market**: The apple spot market shows a differentiated situation, with high - quality goods in short supply and firm prices, while ordinary goods in Shandong have inventory pressure [14]. - **Inventory**: As of March 26, the national cold - storage inventory was 441.79 million tons, a decrease of 26.62 million tons from the previous value [14]. 3.6 Corn Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, corn 2605 decreased 0.29% to 2369 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased 3.45% to - 30 yuan/ton [19]. - **Spot Market**: Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price decreased 0.42% to 2380 yuan/ton, and Shekou Port's market price decreased 0.4% to 2490 yuan/ton [19]. - **Industry Situation**: In the Northeast, corn prices decline, in North China, deep - processing enterprises lower purchase prices. Demand is affected by wheat substitution and policy wheat auctions [19]. 3.7 Meal Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, soybean meal 2605 decreased 0.51% to 2937 yuan/ton, rapeseed meal 2605 decreased 1.24% to 2315 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spot Market**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price decreased 1.22% to 3240 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price decreased 1.17% to 2540 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spread and Profit**: The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread decreased 10.26% to - 86, and the Brazilian 5 - month ship - period crushing profit increased 12.8% to 256 [23]. 3.8 Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, pig 2605 rose 1.32% to 9965 yuan/ton, pig 2607 decreased 0.62% to 11180 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread increased 14.13% to - 1215 yuan/ton [24]. - **Spot Market**: Pig prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with an increase in some regions and a decrease in others [24]. - **Industry Situation**: There is a large volume of pig slaughter, high slaughter weight, slow downstream procurement recovery, and cautious entry of second - fattening and frozen product storage [24]. 3.9 Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: On March 30, compared with the previous value, egg 04 decreased 1.43% to 3418 yuan/500KG, egg 05 decreased 0.28% to 3512 yuan/500KG, and the 4 - 5 spread decreased 41.49% to - 133 [26]. - **Spot Market**: Egg - producing area prices rose 3.02% to 3.38 yuan/jin [26]. - **Industry Situation**: Egg supply is stable, and demand is affected by pre - holiday promotions and school holidays [26].
农产品日报(2026 年3 月27日)-20260327
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 05:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: On Thursday, corn prices fluctuated and consolidated. The May contract decreased with reduced positions. The game between macro and policy continued, and the futures price showed an oscillating performance. The overall short - term supply - demand pattern is balanced, with small price fluctuations. The view is oscillating and weak. Short - term participation is recommended under the game between policy and macro factors [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose as the market awaited a possible biofuel announcement and closely monitored the Middle East situation and the US soybean demand outlook. However, the uncertainty of US soybean exports limited the increase. The domestic protein meal oscillated higher, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. The spot price of live pigs continued to decline, and the expectation of accelerated reduction of breeding capacity increased, which was unfavorable for soybean meal consumption. The spot trading of soybean meal was sluggish. Short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Oils: On Thursday, BMD palm oil rose after two consecutive days of decline. The strengthening of crude oil prices, the rise of US soybean oil, and strong export data supported the market. High - frequency data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 25 increased by 38.4% - 50.6% month - on - month. The domestic oil market followed the upward trend, with rising import costs as the main theme. The spot market remained dull, and end - users were cautious. The domestic oil market reshaped the oscillation range, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Eggs: On Thursday, the egg futures rebounded. The main 2605 contract oscillated upward during the session, closing up 2.99% at 3512 yuan/500 kilograms. The short - term terminal demand was stable, and the egg price was stable. Currently, supply still exerts pressure on the egg price, but the egg futures price has a higher bottom supported by the cost. Short - term trading is recommended, and continuous attention should be paid to the inventory data released by Zhuochuang next week and the impact of surrounding commodity prices on the egg price [2]. - Live Pigs: On Thursday, the live pig futures declined. The main 2605 contract closed down 1.45% at 9835 yuan/ton. Most breeding farms still faced certain resistance in selling, and the market transaction center moved down. Before the supply pressure is effectively alleviated, the live pig price is likely to continue the weak pattern. According to the exchange's position - limit system, on April 1, the position limit of the 2605 contract will be reduced to 50 lots. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities in far - month contracts and the impact of feed costs and surrounding commodity prices on the pig price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Military situation: Israel Defense Forces' military spokesman said that military operations against Iran would last at least three more weeks, and there were still thousands of targets to be attacked. The Pentagon is considering sending more warships to the Middle East to escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - Monetary data: At the end of February, the broad money (M2) balance was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9% [3]. - Regulatory meeting: On March 13, China Securities Regulatory Commission's Party Committee expanded meeting pointed out that in 2026, bottom - line thinking should be strengthened, and the linkage monitoring and supervision of domestic and foreign, futures and spot markets should be enhanced [3]. - Iron ore inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 17187.52 tons, a month - on - month increase of 69.66 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 317.90 tons, an increase of 6.82 tons; the number of ships at ports was 110, a decrease of 2 [3]. - Iron ore price: The rebound of iron ore price at the end of February was more of emotional and technical repair, lacking support from supply - demand fundamentals [3]. - Oil license: The US Treasury issued a 30 - day license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil and oil products stranded at sea [3]. - Fertilizer reserve: To ensure the concentrated fertilizer demand during the spring plowing, relevant national departments decided to organize the early release of the 2025/2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve (nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizers) [4]. - Fertilizer price: After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the international fertilizer supply chain was significantly impacted. The price of the urea main futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose by more than 20% compared with before the attack on February 28 [5]. - Oil export: Iraq's oil ministry is ready to resume exports through the Ceyhan pipeline, with a daily export volume of no more than 300,000 barrels. The Natural Resources Ministry of the Kurdish region currently refuses to resume oil exports [5]. - Aluminum production: Due to the near - stagnation of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, Bahrain Aluminium has started phased production cuts to reserve raw materials [5]. - Methanol inventory: As of March 12, the methanol inventory at East China ports was 54.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.2 tons compared with March 5 [5]. 3.2 Variety Spread - Contract spread: The report presents the 5 - 9 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [12][9][10]. - Contract basis: The report shows the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [18][19][21][23]. 3.3 Research Team - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' best futures analyst selection for many consecutive years. She led the team to win the title of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2023 [25]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures experience. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title for many consecutive years. Her team won the title of the most potential agricultural product futures R & D team of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2013, the top ten R & D teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019, and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2023 [25]. - Kong Hailan, an economics master, is currently a researcher in the egg and live pig industries at Everbright Futures Research Institute. Her team won the title of the top ten R & D teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2023 [25].
油厂库存小幅上升,豆粕震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 05:17
Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the粕类 and corn industries is cautiously bullish [3][6] Group 2: Core Views - For the粕类 market, although Brazilian new - season soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, if there are unexpected issues with future arrivals, the domestic market may face a temporary supply shortage. Supported by cost and US soybeans, domestic soybean meal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Attention should be paid to US soybean planting, future arrivals, and macro - events [2] - For the corn market, the current inventory of deep - processing enterprises is still low, and they tend to raise prices to promote purchases, which further supports corn prices. Feed enterprises are less willing to accept high - priced corn and prefer substitutes. The corn price at northern ports remains firm. With good wheat auction results and potential increases in auction volume, along with rumors of rice auctions, the overall corn price is expected to remain strong [4][5] Group 3: Market News and Important Data 粕类 - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2952 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.68%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2344 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.21%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 318, down 10 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 228, down 30; in Guangdong, it was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 338, unchanged; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2370 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of RM05 + 26, down 5 [1] - News: On March 25, Agroconsult reported that Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 184.7 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, a 0.9% increase from the early - March forecast [1] Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2376 yuan/ton, unchanged (0.00%); the corn starch 2605 contract was 2765 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.07%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of C05 + 14, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS05 + 135, down 2 [3] - News: On March 25, it was reported that the US Department of Agriculture will release the 2026 planting intention report at 0:00 on April 1. Analysts expect the US soybean planting area in 2026 to be 85.549 million acres, higher than last year's 81.215 million acres and the USDA's forecast of 85 million acres. The expected US corn planting area in 2026 is 94.371 million acres, lower than 2025 but slightly higher than the 2026 outlook forum prediction [3] Group 4: Market Analysis 粕类 - Downstream oil mill inventories are being continuously consumed. Despite the Brazilian soybean harvest, potential supply shortages may occur if there are problems with future arrivals. Domestic soybean meal prices are likely to be supported by cost and US soybeans [2] Corn - Deep - processing enterprises have low corn inventories and raise prices to purchase, supporting corn prices. Feed enterprises prefer substitutes. Corn prices at northern ports are firm. Wheat auctions are doing well, and future auction volumes may increase. The overall corn market supply is tight, and prices are expected to remain strong [4][5] Group 5: Strategies - For both the粕类 and corn markets, the strategy is to be cautiously bullish [3][6]
《农产品》日报-20260327
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 03:18
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to break through the 4,600 ringgit resistance, and Dalian palm oil futures may break through the 9,700 yuan resistance [1]. - CBOT soybean oil is expected to reach 70 cents, and domestic soybean oil has both bullish and bearish factors [1]. - Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures have a chance to rebound, with the upper pressure range at 9,900 - 10,000 yuan [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures hit an 11 - month high. The domestic cotton market is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to spinning mills' order - receiving and macro - level news [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures reached a more than five - month high. The domestic sugar market is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the mitigation of external risk factors [3]. 2.4 Jujube Industry - The jujube market is currently in a state of weak futures and spot prices, and the futures price is expected to remain at a low level in the short - term [4]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The apple futures price has fallen from a high level. The spot market is differentiated. The national cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, which supports the futures price. The market is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking of ordinary apples and weather changes [5]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn prices are oscillating at a high level, with support from limited remaining grain and rigid demand, and suppression from grain substitution and policy releases. The operation range is mainly between 2,350 - 2,420 yuan [7]. 2.7 Meal Industry - US soybeans have rebounded near 1,160 cents. Domestic soybean meal sentiment has cooled, and the market is waiting for the planting intention report at the end of March [10]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The pig market is in a weak state. Spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, and the futures market is in a reverse - spread pattern. Attention should be paid to the 5 - 7 or 5 - 9 reverse - spread opportunities [12]. 2.9 Egg Industry - The egg supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The egg price may face pressure near 3,550 - 3,600 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - On March 26, the average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.02% to 8,950 yuan, and the futures price of Y2605 increased by 1.12% to 8,646 yuan [1]. - The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.03% to 9,603 yuan, and the futures price of P2605 increased by 1.09% to 9,614 yuan [1]. - The price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.28% to 10,268 yuan, and the futures price of OIROS increased by 1.37% to 9,840 yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - The soybean - palm oil spot spread decreased by 1.24% to - 653 yuan, and the soybean - palm oil futures spread (2605) decreased by 0.83% to - 968 yuan [1]. - The rapeseed - soybean spot spread increased by 3.13% to 1,318 yuan, and the rapeseed - soybean futures spread (2605) increased by 3.20% to 1,194 yuan [1]. 3.2 Cotton Industry 3.2.1 Futures Market - The price of cotton 2605 increased by 1.35% to 15,420 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 increased by 1.24% to 12,242 yuan/ton [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of cotton increased by 10.71% to - 125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.14% to 16,597 yuan, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.20% to 16,745 yuan [2]. - The FC Index: M: 1% increased by 1.55% to 13,270 yuan [2]. 3.2.3 Industry Situation - The small - scale inventory decreased by 100.0% to 0.00 tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 14.5% to 102.40 tons [2]. - The import volume decreased by 19.0% to 16.65 tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 9.8% to 47.10 tons [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures Market - The price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.63% to 5,463 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.44% to 5,485 yuan/ton [3]. - The 5 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 31.25% to - 22 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - The Guoyuan price remained unchanged at 5,470 yuan, and the Nanning price increased by 0.09% to 5,325 yuan [3]. - The import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) decreased by 1.55% to 4,331 yuan/ton, and the import price of Brazilian sugar (outside quota) decreased by 1.58% to 5,497 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3.3 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 4.69% to 926.00 tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales decreased by 27.39% to 345.00 tons [3]. - The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi decreased by 8.36% to 565.13 tons, and the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi increased by 20.16% to 162.23 tons [3]. 3.4 Jujube Industry - The price of jujube 2605 decreased by 0.62% to 8,835 yuan/ton, and the price of jujube 2607 decreased by 0.94% to 9,060 yuan/ton [4]. - The 5 - 7 spread of jujube decreased by 170 yuan to - 140 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of jujube increased by 35 yuan to - 340 yuan/ton [4]. 3.5 Apple Industry - The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.32% to 9,946 yuan/ton, and the price of apple 2610 increased by 0.21% to 8,684 yuan/ton [5]. - The 5 - 10 spread of apple decreased by 3.81% to 1,262 yuan/ton [5]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.6.1 Corn - The price of corn 2605 remained unchanged at 2,376 yuan/ton, and the basis remained unchanged at 14 yuan [7]. - The 5 - 9 spread of corn decreased by 26.09% to - 29 yuan [7]. 3.6.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 0.07% to 2,765 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 2.39% to 204 yuan [7]. - The 5 - 9 spread of corn starch increased by 41.18% to - 10 yuan [7]. 3.7 Meal Industry 3.7.1 Soybean Meal - The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3,280 yuan, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.68% to 2,952 yuan [10]. - The basis of M2605 decreased by 5.75% to 328 yuan [10]. 3.7.2 Rapeseed Meal - The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 0.39% to 2,570 yuan, and the futures price of RM2605 increased by 0.21% to 2,344 yuan [10]. - The basis of RM2605 increased by 2.26% to 226 yuan [10]. 3.8 Pig Industry 3.8.1 Futures Market - The price of the main pig contract decreased by 1.45% to 9,835 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread of pigs decreased by 6.39% to - 1,415 yuan [12]. 3.8.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 9,500 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan to 9,700 yuan/ton [12]. 3.8.3 Industry Situation - The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.93% to 182,741, and the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.86% to 17.25 yuan [12]. - The weekly piglet price remained unchanged at 26.20 yuan/kg, and the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.45 yuan/kg [12]. 3.9 Egg Industry - The price of the egg 04 contract increased by 2.64% to 3,418 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 05 contract increased by 2.99% to 3,512 yuan/500KG [14]. - The egg - producing area price increased by 0.47% to 3.30 yuan/jin, and the basis increased by 28.03% to - 116 yuan/500KG [14].
中辉农产品观点-20260327
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 02:31
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to decline in the short term. For soybean meal, supply - side negative factors persist, and the short - term import supply in China is expected to be loose. For rapeseed meal, the expected arrival peak of Canadian rapeseed in April will bring supply pressure [1][4][5]. - **Short - term intensified volatility**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are likely to experience intensified short - term volatility. Their performance is affected by factors such as the international situation, crude oil prices, and their own supply - demand conditions. Palm oil's strength needs support from the crude oil end, and the others also have similar situations [1]. - **Caution against callbacks**: Cotton is at risk of a callback. Although the short - term cotton price is supported by better downstream orders and开机 rates, as April approaches, there are concerns about demand pre - empting and high imported cotton and yarn inventories [1][12]. - **Under pressure**: Red dates are under pressure. The market is in a slack season with a loose supply - demand pattern, slow inventory removal, and weakening consumption due to rising temperatures [1][14]. - **Increasing differentiation**: The pig market shows increasing differentiation. The current double losses of piglets and fattened pigs may accelerate the reduction of sow capacity, but the high supply base in the current year remains. Near - month contracts are under pressure, while mid - term and far - month contracts have different investment opportunities [1][15][16]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price**: The futures price of soybean meal closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.68% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3337.71 yuan/ton, up 4.85 yuan or 0.15% [2]. - **Supply and demand**: Brazil is in the concentrated export stage, and the quarantine process is expected to be relaxed, leading to a loose short - term import supply in China. There is a lack of upward driving force for domestic soybean meal [1][4]. - **Key data to watch**: Before the end - of - month important data release, pay attention to the fluctuations in the crude oil market, the US soybean planting area at the end of the month, and the final content of US biodiesel [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of March 25, 2026, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions of China was 36.70 tons, a decrease of 3.88 tons from the previous week [5]. - **Price**: The national rapeseed meal market price dropped by 30 - 50 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply and demand**: Starting from April, Canadian rapeseed will enter a peak arrival period, and the expected supply pressure will make rapeseed meal weaker than soybean meal. It is advisable to wait and see for bullish positions [1][5]. - **Key data to watch**: Pay attention to the subsequent inventory accumulation of domestic rapeseed meal, the trend of crude oil, and the guidance from the soybean meal end [1][5]. Palm Oil - **Price**: The futures price of palm oil closed at 9614 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan or 1.09% from the previous day. The national average price was 9603 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan or 1.03% [7]. - **Supply and demand**: From March 1 - 25, 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, while the export volume increased. However, the palm oil production in Southeast Asia may enter a recovery stage in April, and its strength needs support from the crude oil end [8]. - **Key data to watch**: Pay attention to the future trend of crude oil and the export and production data of Malaysian palm oil [1][8]. Cotton - **Price**: The futures price of domestic cotton (CF2605) closed at 15420 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.52% from the previous day. The international cotton price (US cotton king continuous 05) was 68.18 cents/pound, up 0.56 cents or 0.83% [9]. - **Supply and demand**: Internationally, the cotton production in Brazil is expected to decrease, and the US cotton planting area is expected to decline. Domestically, the new - year cotton production is expected to decrease, and the commercial inventory is slightly higher than the same period last year. The downstream demand is relatively strong, but there are risks of demand pre - empting and high imported cotton and yarn inventories [10][11][12]. - **Key data to watch**: Pay attention to the US crop planting intention report at the end of the month and the reduction of cotton planting area in April [12]. Red Dates - **Price**: The futures price of red dates (CJ2605) closed at 8835 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan or - 0.62% from the previous day [13]. - **Supply and demand**: The supply side has stable prices, and the market is in a slack season. The inventory is slightly decreasing, but the consumption is weakening due to rising temperatures [13][14]. - **Key data to watch**: Pay attention to the change of market sentiment and the inventory removal situation [14]. Pigs - **Price**: The futures price of live pigs (1h2605) closed at 9835 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan or - 1.45% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 9400 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan or - 0.95% [15]. - **Supply and demand**: The supply side has a high base, and the current double losses of piglets and fattened pigs may accelerate the reduction of sow capacity. The demand side is in a slack season, and the short - term spot price is under pressure [15][16]. - **Key data to watch**: Pay attention to the change of sow capacity and the bottom - building opportunities of mid - term and far - month contracts [16].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20260327
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 02:02
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may break through the 4,600 ringgit resistance. Dalian palm oil futures have a chance to continue rising after breaking through the 9,700 yuan resistance. CBOT soybean oil's May contract may reach 70 cents. Domestic soybean oil has a mixed fundamental situation. Rapeseed oil has a chance to rebound, with the upper pressure range at 9,900 - 10,000 yuan [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures reached an 11 - month high. The US 2026 cotton planting area is expected to decrease. The domestic cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to spinning mills' order - receiving and macro news [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures reached a more than five - month high. The domestic sugar market is likely to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the alleviation of external risks [3]. 2.4 Red Date Industry - The red date market is currently weak both in futures and spot. It is in the low - valuation range and is expected to maintain low - level operation in the short - term [4]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The apple futures price has fallen from a high. The spot market is differentiated. The national cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, which supports the futures price. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking of ordinary apples and weather changes [5]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn prices are supported by limited remaining grain and rigid demand, and suppressed by grain substitution and policy releases. It will maintain a high - level shock in the range of 2,350 - 2,420 yuan/ton [7]. 2.7 Meal Industry - US soybeans have rebounded near 1,160 cents. The domestic soybean meal market has cooled down, and the short - term inventory is not loose. Attention should be paid to the planting intention report at the end of March [10]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The pig market is in a weak pattern. The spot price is expected to continue to bottom out, and the futures market may have opportunities for reverse spreads [12]. 2.9 Egg Industry - The egg supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The egg price may face pressure near 3,550 - 3,600 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Price Changes**: On March 26, the average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.02% to 8,950 yuan/ton; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.03% to 9,603 yuan/ton; the price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.28% to 10,268 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread decreased by 1.24%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread increased by 3.13% [1]. 3.2 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 increased by 1.35% to 15,420 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 increased by 1.24% to 12,242 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.14% to 16,597 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B increased by 0.20% to 16,745 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The small - scale inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, the import volume decreased by 19.0%, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 9.8% [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.63% to 5,463 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.44% to 5,485 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,470 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.09% to 5,325 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production decreased by 4.69%, the sales volume decreased by 27.39%, and the industrial inventory increased by 17.03% [3]. 3.4 Red Date Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of red date 2605 decreased by 0.62% to 8,835 yuan/ton, and the price of red date 2607 decreased by 0.94% to 9,060 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates remained unchanged [4]. - **Industry Situation**: As of March 27, the inventory of 36 sample points was 11,459 tons, a decrease of 81 tons from last week [4]. 3.5 Apple Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.32% to 9,946 yuan/ton, and the price of apple 2610 increased by 0.21% to 8,684 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume of some fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.69% to 441.79 tons as of March 26 [5]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2605 remained unchanged at 2,376 yuan/ton, the basis remained unchanged at 14 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26.09% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 0.07% to 2,765 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 2.39% [7]. 3.7 Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,280 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.68% to 2,952 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 5.75% [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.39% to 2,570 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2605 increased by 0.21% to 2,344 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 2.26% [10]. 3.8 Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 decreased by 1.45% to 9,835 yuan/ton, and the price of live pigs 2607 decreased by 0.53% to 11,250 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions generally decreased, and the sample - point slaughter volume increased by 0.93% [12]. 3.9 Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 04 contract increased by 2.64% to 3,418 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 05 contract increased by 2.99% to 3,512 yuan/500KG [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.47% to 3.30 yuan/jin, and the base difference increased by 28.03% [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg - laying hen chick price increased by 2.86% to 3.60 yuan/feather, and the egg - feed ratio decreased by 9.98% [14].
鸡蛋劲升、棉花上涨
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 11:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Eggs and cotton are rising, while the prices of some other products such as soybeans and palm oil are also changing. The prices of some products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonality [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Eggs have broken through and risen sharply, driven by pre - Qingming Festival stocking and low inventory. The upward trend is expected to continue. Cotton has also increased, supported by the expectation of tight future supply and the traditional downstream consumption peak season [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Eggs - The main egg contract 2605 has broken through 3500. The current Qingming Festival stocking period has released downstream demand, and the inventory is low. The rising feed cost has strengthened the price - holding mentality of farmers. Technically, the contract has shown a strong upward trend. The recommended strategy is to hold a light long position with a support level of 3468 - 3480 [2] 3.2.2 Cotton - The main cotton contract 2605 has continued to rise. Analysts expect the US cotton planting area in 2026 to decrease to 9.229 million acres, and the domestic Xinjiang cotton planting area will also decline. The downstream textile market is in the peak season, with an increase in new orders. Technically, the contract has strengthened. The recommended strategy is to hold a light long position with a support level of 15300 - 15320 [3] 3.2.3 Soybean Meal - The main soybean meal contract 2605 has had a technical rebound but still shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The 2609 contract has stabilized. The rise in US soybeans has driven the rebound of domestic soybean meal. The inventory pressure is not large, and there may be a decline in output. The recommended strategy is to hold a light long position in the 2609 contract [5] 3.2.4 Palm Oil - The main palm oil contract 2605 has rebounded. The rise in crude oil and strong exports of Malaysian palm oil have provided support. The production of Malaysian palm oil in March decreased, while exports increased. Technically, it still needs to stabilize. The recommended strategy is to try a light long position with a stop - loss at the 20 - day moving average of 9500 [7] 3.2.5 Live Pigs - The main live pig contract 2605 has continued to decline, reaching a new low. The release of production capacity and weak demand have put pressure on prices. The recommended strategy is to hold a short position in the 2605 contract [9] 3.2.6 White Sugar - The main white sugar contract 2605 has continued to rise. Tensions in the Middle East may affect the sugar - making ratio in major sugar - producing countries, and domestic production costs and policies provide support. Technically, it has stabilized. The recommended strategy is to hold a light long position with a support level of 5430 - 5440 [11]