农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四，玉米增仓上行，3 | | 月合约大幅领涨，远期合约跟涨，期、现报价延续强势 | | | 表现。周中，中储粮玉米竞价销售溢价成交，多头增仓，玉米、淀粉期价联动上 | | | | | 行。期间，玉米主力 | | 2603 合约领涨，远期合约跟涨，玉米期、现报价上涨利多 | | | 情绪重回市场。现货市场方面，近日市场拍卖较为频繁，目前虽溢价成交对现货 | | | | | 市场暂无明显影响，但拍卖增加市场供应，也在一定程度上补充了现货供应。东 | | | | | 北玉米目前购销活跃度一般，贸易商收货利润有限，基层低价售粮意向也显一般。 | | | | | 华北地区玉米价格整体维持稳定，个别企业价格窄幅调整，基层价格保持不变。 | 玉米 | | 震荡 | | 基层农户售粮积极性有所增加，贸易商连续开始建库。下游企业按需采购，饲料 | | | | | 企业对高价玉米接受度较低，以执行合同为主，新增需求有限。销区市场玉米价 | | | | | 格主流稳定运行。目前下 ...

农产品早报 2026-01-09 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周四郑州白糖期货价格震荡，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5279 元/吨，较前一交易日下跌 2 元/吨，或 0.04%。 现货方面，广西制糖集团新糖报价 5320-5380 元/吨，报价较上个交易日持平；云南制糖集团新糖报价 5180-5230 元/吨，报价较上个交易日持平；加工糖厂主流报价区间 5810 元/吨，报价较上个交易日上涨 0-10 元/吨。广西现货-郑糖主力合约基差 41 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 根据印度食品与公共分配部(DFPD)发布的通知，政府将在 2026 年 3 月 31 日后审查糖厂的出口表现，并 可能将未使用的配额重新分配给出口表现更好的糖厂或有意愿的糖厂。据巴西对外贸易秘书处(Secex)公 布的出口数据显示，巴西 12 月出口食糖 291.3 万吨，较去年同期增加 8 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Affected by mixed fundamentals, the futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a volatile consolidation trend, with short - term support above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the moving - average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can firmly stand above 4,000 ringgit [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to related varieties. Although China's purchase of US soybeans boosts CBOT soybean prices, the abundant global soybean supply still weighs on it. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking and reduced soybean imports are positive, but the CBOT soybean price may still correct, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces pressure around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: With limited domestic available spot, the market is watching whether COFCO will start production on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the short - term downside is limited, and the overall trend is wide - range volatile adjustment [1]. - **Jujube**: The spot market price is weakly stable, with increased customer inquiries but no significant improvement in transactions. Affected by the warming commodity market sentiment, the futures price rebounds, and the basis narrows. The new - season warehouse receipt generation accelerates. Short - term fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the futures price will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the corn market is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, but selling pressure expectations and policy - supplemented supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar - cane crushing is nearing the end, and the market focus shifts to the Northern Hemisphere. India's sugar production has increased year - on - year, while Thailand's is still down. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking demand is strong, but the peak - season supply and cautious market sentiment limit the upside, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8][9]. - **Apple**: With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the market is more active, with good - quality apples in short supply and high prices. However, the high price may suppress consumption, and other fruits compete with apples. The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress [13]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are under pressure from falling oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US, the cotton - growing area is experiencing rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. The domestic cotton price is supported by strong expectations of reduced planting in Xinjiang and downstream replenishment, but is restricted by low foreign cotton costs and the off - season demand. In the short term, the cotton price will maintain a bullish trend, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. - **Egg**: Based on previous chick - sales data, the laying - hen inventory may decrease in January, alleviating supply pressure. After the continuous increase in egg prices, the market resists high - priced goods. The current market circulation is smooth, and inventories are low. With the approaching traditional consumption peak, the market sentiment is bullish, but the oversupply situation may limit the upside, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. - **Pig**: The spot price has returned to a volatile pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. Although the northern pig supply has decreased, high prices have dampened slaughterhouse procurement enthusiasm, and the southern demand has also weakened. Some second - fattening operations are still taking place, but overall enthusiasm is low. The market expects high consumption before the Spring Festival, but the supply in January is abundant, and the futures price is affected by market sentiment, with limited upside potential [19]. - **Meal**: The external market is under pressure from the global supply - demand situation, and the market awaits the USDA supply - demand report. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and meals is currently abundant, but the expected future shortage supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The first - quarter soybean arrival is expected to be low, but there is uncertainty in auctions and arrivals. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the short - term market sentiment is positive, with the futures price fluctuating strongly [21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1. Price and Spread - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - **Palm Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of P2605 was 8,562 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan or 0.73% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of Y2605 was 7,958 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 0.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of OI2605 was 9,606 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.38% [1]. - **Jujube**: The futures prices of jujube 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, with the 2605 contract rising 175 yuan or 1.95% to 9,150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2603 was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.17%, and the basis was 72 yuan, down 31 yuan or 30.10% [5]. - **Sugar**: The futures price of sugar 2605 was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.42% [8]. - **Apple**: The futures price of the apple 2605 contract was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.32% [10]. - **Cotton**: The futures price of cotton 2605 was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan or 1.21% [16]. - **Egg**: The futures price of the egg 03 contract was 3,011 yuan/500KG, up 11 yuan or 0.37% [18]. - **Pig**: The futures price of the pig 2605 contract was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% [19]. - **Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal M2605 was 2,811 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.26%, and the futures price of rapeseed meal RM2605 was 2,419 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 1.21% [21]. - **Spreads**: - **Three - oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread of the three - oil was 150 yuan, up 12 yuan or 8.70% [1]. - **Palm Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 110 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 6.78% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 14 yuan, down 38 yuan or - 73.08% [1]. - **Soybean - Palm Oil Spread**: The spot spread was - 110 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 2.72% [1]. - **Rapeseed - Soybean Oil Spread**: The spot spread was 1,440 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 81 yuan or - 6.65% [1]. - **Jujube 5 - 7 Spread**: It was - 45 yuan, up 25 yuan or 35.71% [2]. - **Jujube 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 180 yuan, up 40 yuan or 18.18% [2]. - **Corn 3 - 7 Spread**: It was - 36 yuan, up 10 yuan or 21.74% [5]. - **Sugar 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 12 yuan, up 4 yuan or 25.00% [8]. - **Apple 5 - 10 Spread**: It was 1,109 yuan, up 26 yuan or 2.40% [10]. - **Cotton 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 190 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 2.70% [16]. - **Egg 3 - 4 Spread**: It was - 253 yuan, down 3 yuan or - 1.20% [18]. - **Pig 3 - 5 Spread**: It was - 475 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 6.74% [19]. - **Soybean Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 77 yuan, up 18 yuan or 18.95% [21]. - **Rapeseed Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 46 yuan, up 1 yuan or 2.13% [21]. 3.2. Inventory and Supply - demand - **Inventory**: - **Palm Oil**: The warehouse receipt on January 7 was 1,248, up 688 or 122.86% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 28,264 (unchanged) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 2,130, down 1,167 [1]. - **Jujube**: The warehouse receipt was 2,263, up 158 or 7.51%, and the effective forecast was 745, down 107 or - 12.56% [2]. - **Corn**: The warehouse receipt was 34,655, up 3,000 or 9.48% [5]. - **Sugar**: The warehouse receipt was unchanged at 1000, and the effective forecast was 4,563 (unchanged) [8]. - **Apple**: The national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 tons, down 10.48 tons or - 1.41% [10]. - **Cotton**: The commercial inventory was 534.90 tons, up 66.54 tons or 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 tons, up 4.43 tons or 4.7% [16]. - **Meal**: The soybean meal warehouse receipt was 25,480, up 700 or 2.8% [21]. - **Supply - demand**: - **Sugar**: The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 23.24% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales decreased by 42.53% year - on - year. In Guangxi, the cumulative production decreased by 73.87% year - on - year, and the monthly sales decreased by 68.63% year - on - year [8]. - **Cotton**: The import volume increased by 33.3% month - on - month, and the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year [16]. - **Pig**: The slaughter volume increased by 0.63% day - on - day, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits improved [19].

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月7日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘表现分化，原糖期货涨 1.42%报14.97美分/磅，棉花期货跌0.31%报64.86美分/磅，可可期货跌0.34%报5934.00美元/吨，咖啡期 货涨0.11%报374.25美分/磅。 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-07 郑棉期价再创新高，糖价走势依旧承压 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14855元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨，幅度+1.36%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价15487元/吨，较前一日变动+45元/吨，现货基差CF05+632，较前一日变动-155；3128B棉全国均价15711元/ 吨，较前一日变动+96元/吨，现货基差CF05+856，较前一日变动-104。 近期市场资讯，截至2025年12月25日，美国累计净签约出口2025/26年度棉花151.9万吨，达到年度预期出口量的 57.20%，累计装运棉花67.4万吨，装运率44.39%。其中陆地棉签约量为147.4万吨，装运64.2万吨，装运率43.58%。 皮马棉签约量为4.5万吨，装运3.2万吨，装运率70.90%。其中，中国累计签约进口2025/26年度美棉6.8万吨，占美 棉已签约量的4.51％；累计装运美棉2.6万吨，占美棉总装运量的3.88％，占中国已签约量的38.27％。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续强势。国际方面，12月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球 ...

农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | 补栏淘汰意愿变化对产能的影响。 | | | --- | --- | | 周二，生猪期货反弹，主力 2603 合约盘中震荡向上，日收涨 1.29%，报收 11810 元/吨。卓创数据显示，昨日中国生猪日度均价 12.5 元/公斤，环比涨 0.06 元/公 | | | 斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价 13 元/公斤，环比涨 0.18 元/公斤，四川平， | | | 山东、广东、辽宁涨。大体重生猪需求较好，养殖端有压栏增重情绪，生猪实际 | | | 生猪 供应偏紧，支撑生猪现货价格上涨。我的农产品公布数据显示，12 月，规模长 | 震荡 | | 能繁母猪存栏环比下降 0.18%，中小散环比下降 1.19%，综合环比降幅 0.22%，能 | | | 繁母猪存栏环比延续下降，对期货市场形成支撑，远月合约增仓向上。建议设置 | | | 动态止盈，关注生猪期货主力合约长期均线的技术表现。 | | 二、市场信息 1、 印度尼西亚贸易部表示，印尼已将 1 月份毛棕榈油参考价格定为每吨 915 ...

农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，玉米先跌后涨。主力 2603 合约受小麦竞价销售利空政策影响，开盘跳空 | | | | 下行，其后期价企稳日内表现震荡反弹。现货市场中，玉米报价持稳，现货成交 | | | | 清淡。目前，东北地区玉米价格基本维持平稳，北港价格窄幅下调。产区农户目 | | | | 前仍存在惜售情绪，市场上量偏慢，贸易商收购不积极，维持难买难卖局面。华 | | | | 北地区玉米价格整体稳定，少数企业价格窄幅下调，主流价格保持不变。深加工 | | | 玉米 | 企业库存尚可，采购压力不大。基层贸易商库存较去年同期相比偏低，收购意愿 | 震荡下行 | | | 尚可，随着干粮增加和春节临近，预计基层玉米购销活跃度逐渐增加。销区市场 | | | | 玉米价格稳定。元旦假期成交清淡，港口贸易商报价无变化，下游企业按需补库， | | | | 整体市场购销不活跃。技术上，玉米主力 2603 合约周线图表在短期均线的密集 | | | | 成交处企稳，期价呈现震荡表现。中期，谷物市场政策利空影响持续， ...

农产品早报 2026-01-06 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一郑州白糖期货价格低开后反弹，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5257 元/吨，较前一交易日上涨 6 元/吨，或 0.11%。现货方面，广西制糖集团新糖报价 5280-5360 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 10-20 元/吨；云南 制糖集团新糖报价 5150-5190 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 10-20 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间 5760-5800 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 0-10 元/吨。广西现货-郑糖主力合约基差 23 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据印度全国合作糖厂联合会有限公司(NFCSF)发布的数据显示，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，印度糖厂已压 榨甘蔗 1.33 亿吨，同比增加 0.23 亿吨。本榨季截至目前共有 499 家糖厂开榨。截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日 食糖产量达 ...

Soybeans are in rally mode as traders come back from the thin holiday markets, with futures up 15 to 18 ¼ centas. There were another 401 deliveries against January soybeans issued on Friday evening. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was 16 ¾ cents higher at $9.87 1/2. Soymeal futures are $3.50 to $4 higher at midday, with Soy Oil futures up 60 to 67 points. There were 20 deliveries issued for January soybean meal. Export Inspections data showed soybean shipments at 980,518 MT (51.2 mbu) ship ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. corn price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern due to high production despite reduced inventory and export benefits [4][8] - The spot price of domestic corn is relatively stable in the short term. North - east corn is relatively strong with farmers' reluctance to sell, while North - China corn is weakening. The price rebound space of corn is limited, and the 03 corn contract will oscillate within a narrow range [6][8] - The starch price is mainly influenced by corn price and downstream stocking. With rising inventory and weakening corporate profitability, the 03 starch contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2293, up 8 (0.35%); C2605 closed at 2252, down 3 (- 0.13%); C2509 closed at 2277, unchanged (0.00%) [2] - For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2486, down 11 (- 0.44%); CS2605 closed at 2552, down 13 (- 0.51%); CS2509 closed at 2598, down 6 (- 0.23%) [2] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions: Qinggang was 2120, Songyuan Jiajie was 2190, Zhucheng Xingmao was 2320, Shouguang was 2266, Jinzhou Port was 2320, Nantong Port was 2390, and Guangdong Port was 2440 [2] - Starch spot prices in different regions: Longfeng was 2750, COFCO was 2700, Jiajie was 2850, Yufeng was 2860, Jinyu Corn was 2800, Zhucheng Xingmao was 2880, and Hengren Industry and Trade was 2760 [2] 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - period spreads: C01 - C05 was 41 (up 11), C05 - C09 was - 25 (down 3), C09 - C01 was - 16 (down 8) [2] - Starch inter - period spreads: CS01 - CS05 was - 66 (up 2), CS05 - CS09 was - 46 (down 7), CS09 - CS01 was 112 (up 5) [2] - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 was 321 (down 6), CS01 - C01 was 193 (down 19), CS05 - C05 was 300 (down 10) [2] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The U.S. corn price is bottom - oscillating. The import profit of foreign corn is rising. The spot price in North - China corn is weakening, and that in North - east corn is relatively strong. The price difference between North - east and North - China corn is narrowing [4][6] - The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is increasing. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of North - east corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [6] 3.2.2 Starch - In Shandong, the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants is increasing, and the local corn spot price is weakening. The starch inventory has risen, with the manufacturer's inventory at 112.3 million tons this week, an increase of 2.1 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 3.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [7] - The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong, and the corporate profitability is declining [7] 3.3 Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Unilateral - The 03 U.S. corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Long positions can be established for the 07 corn contract at low prices [9] 3.3.2 Arbitrage - Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] 3.4 Corn Options - Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operations [11]