农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，在玉米现货延续上涨、港口玉米库存下降的双重利多作用影响下，玉米近 月 2601 合约突破创新高，远期跟随上涨。目前，中央储备玉米轮换采购价格继 | | | | 续上涨，现货报价继续走高，期、现报价联动上涨。今日华北地区玉米价格稳中 | | | | 偏弱运行。山东深加工企业早间门前剩余车辆再次突破 1000 台以上，部分深加 | | | | 工企业价格窄幅下调 10-20 元/吨。河北、河南深加工玉米价格基本维持稳定。 | | | | 供应来看，经过前期价格上调，基层农户售粮积极性略有提升，但贸易环节收购 | | | 玉米 | 较为谨慎，目前干粮供应依然较少。需求来看，深加工企业看量调价，库存水平 | 震荡上涨 | | | 维持低位，饲料企业刚需补库为主。销区市场玉米价格继续上涨。期货盘面仍偏 | | | | 强，产区贸易商为执行前期合同被迫收粮交付，当前农户售粮心态一般，上量一 | | | | 般。销区港口贸易商成本提高后继续上调报价。下游饲料企业维持观望心态滚 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 壬泽辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年11月26日 | | | | | | | | | | | 田和 | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 涨跌幅 | 狱跌 | | | | | | | | | 8510 | 8490 | 20 | 0.24% | 现价 | 江苏一级 | -0.29% | Y2601 | 8144 | 8168 | -24 | 期价 | | 墓差 | 13.66% | Y2601 | 366 | 322 | 44 | 01+280 | 01+270 | 10 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 | - | | 仓单 | 24625 | 24625 | 0.00% | 0 | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 8370 | 8430 | -0.71% | 广东 ...

2025 年 11 月 26 日 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，暂时偏弱对待 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,360 | -1.48% | 8,336 | -0.29% -0.66% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,144 | -0.29% | 8,090 | | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,818 | 0.41% | 9,718 | -1.02% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,990 | -1.60% | 3,985 | -0.13% | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 50.63 | 0.22% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 597,491 | 19647 | 403,650 | 1,873 | | | ...

| 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，暂时偏弱对待 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | 2 | | 豆粕：移仓换月，震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：近月合约表现强于远期合约 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，存在预期支撑 | 10 | | 生猪：去库节点已至 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年11月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,360 | 涨跌幅 -1.48% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,336 | 涨跌幅 -0.29% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,144 | -0.29% | 8,090 | -0.66% | | | 菜 ...

农产品早报 2025-11-26 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二 CBOT 大豆震荡，巴西升贴水上涨，大豆到港成本稳定。周二国内豆粕现货持稳，华东报 2980 元/ 吨，豆粕成交一般、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 231.73 万吨，上周压榨大豆 233.44 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 7.98 天环比下降 0.25 天，港口大豆上周去库，但同比仍较高，豆粕库存回 升至 100 万吨以上，因压榨量较大。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西大豆产区 11 月降雨水平同比往年略低，12 月预报雨量较多，预计播种较为顺利。11 月 USDA 月报 预估 25/26 年度全球大豆产量与消费量已几乎持平，同时，全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-25 终端观望为主，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3011元/吨，较前日变动-1元/吨，幅度-0.03%；菜粕2601合约2446元/吨，较前日 变动+15元/吨，幅度+0.62%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01+39， 较前日变动+11；江苏地区豆粕现货2980元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01-31，较前日变动+11；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-41，较前日变动+1。福建地区菜粕现货价格2630 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM01+184，较前日变动+5。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部周五公布，美国8月大豆压榨量为594万吨。11月21日，咨询机构Patria Agronegocios表 示，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植面积已经达到预估面积的79.61%，低于上一作物年度同期的83.29%。 市场分析 当前国内供应依旧较为宽松，大豆持续到港，油厂开机率虽有所上升，但库存消耗较为缓慢，依旧维持在百万吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月25日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 壬泽辉 | | Z0019938 | | 臣湘 | | | | | | | | | | | | 11月24日 | | 11月21日 | 涨跌 | 张庆幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8490 | | 8470 | 20 | 0.24% | | | 期价 | Y2601 | 8168 | | 8190 | -22 | -0.27% | | | 墓差 | Y2601 | 322 | | 280 | 42 | 15.00% | | | | | 01+270 | | 01+270 | 0 | | | | 现货基差报价 | 江苏阴 | | | | | 오프 | | | 仓单 | | 24625 | | 24625 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | | 11月2 ...

Group 1: Oil Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - Palm oil: The Malaysian palm oil market is under pressure due to potential production growth and weak exports. Dalian palm oil futures are also weak, with short - term support levels to be tested. There is a risk of further decline if the bearish factors persist [1]. - Soybean oil: The market is dragged by the potential negative impact of the US biodiesel policy and uncertain US soybean exports. Downstream demand is limited, but the oil - mill profit provides some support for the basis price [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, compared with November 20, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade soybean oil decreased by 1.17% to 8470 yuan, and the futures price of Y2601 decreased by 0.41% to 8190 yuan. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 2.31% to 8470 yuan, and the futures price of P2601 decreased by 1.11% to 8550 yuan. The spot price of Jiangsu - grade rapeseed oil increased by 0.99% to 10170 yuan, and the futures price of OI601 increased by 0.38% to 9816 yuan [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread increased by 100% to 0, and the 2601 contract spread increased by 4.99% to - 722. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread increased by 13.33% to 1700, and the 2601 contract spread increased by 4.57% to 1626 [1]. Group 2: Meal Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The recent strong US soybean crushing data supports the US soybean price, but the market has fully priced in the uncertainty of China's soybean procurement. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the supply of soybean meal is abundant. The futures price has limited downward space but lacks the momentum to rise. It is expected to fluctuate widely [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3000 yuan, and the futures price of M2601 decreased by 0.17% to 3012 yuan. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 0.83% to 2420 yuan, and the futures price of RM2601 increased by 0.79% to 2431 yuan [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread decreased by 3.33% to 580, and the 2601 contract spread decreased by 3.97% to 581 [3]. Group 3: Live Hogs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The market supply has recovered, and the price has turned weak again. Although the demand is expected to increase in the short - term due to cold weather and the start of curing in the southwest, the market is not optimistic about the medium - term price. The strategy of 3 - 7 reverse spread can be continued [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of live hogs 2605 decreased by 0.67% to 11860 yuan/ton, and the futures price of 2601 decreased by 0.79% to 11350 yuan/ton. The spot price in Henan decreased by 0.43% to 11700 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Hebei decreased by 0.85% to 11650 yuan/ton [5]. - **Indicator Changes**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.07% to 201586 heads, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100% to 0 yuan, and the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 18.37% to - 136 yuan/head [5]. Group 4: Corn and Corn Starch Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The current spot price of corn is stable and slightly strong due to farmers' reluctance to sell, limited logistics in the Northeast, and government procurement support. However, the price increase is limited due to the expected selling pressure after the harvest and the shrinking profit of deep - processing enterprises. The corn price will fluctuate with the supply rhythm [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of corn 2601 increased by 1.25% to 2195 yuan/ton, and the futures price of corn starch 2601 increased by 1.58% to 2512 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit of corn increased by 25.64% to 40 yuan, and the import profit increased by 3.22% to 325 yuan [8]. - **Indicator Changes**: The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 16.54% to 318, and the warehouse - receipt quantity of corn decreased by 0.83% to 68764 [8]. Group 5: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The global sugar market is in a relatively calm state. The new sugar in Guangxi has been launched, and the futures price is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern this week [12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.24% to 5353 yuan/ton, and the futures price of 2605 decreased by 0.34% to 5302 yuan/ton. The spot price in Nanning decreased by 0.54% to 5480 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming decreased by 0.36% to 5470 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industry Indicator Changes**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1048 million tons. The industrial inventory in the whole country decreased by 41.20% to 68.21 million tons [12]. Group 6: Eggs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The market demand for eggs is weak, and there is a risk of price decline in some areas. However, due to the price approaching the feed cost line and farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices, the decline space is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 1.77% to 2934 yuan/500KG, and the futures price of the 01 - contract decreased by 1.67% to 3184 yuan/500KG. The egg - chicken price decreased by 3.57% to 2.70 yuan/feather, and the culled - chicken price decreased by 3.96% to 3.88 yuan/jin [15]. - **Indicator Changes**: The egg - feed ratio increased by 2.56% to 2.40, and the breeding profit increased by 13.05% to - 23.06 yuan/feather [15]. Group 7: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - Globally, the cotton supply is abundant, and the impact of factors affecting the US cotton harvest on production is limited. In China, the high output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season brings hedging pressure, but the firm basis and resilient downstream demand provide some support. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.22% to 13445 yuan/ton, and the futures price of 2601 decreased by 0.04% to 13460 yuan/ton. The spot price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton increased by 0.05% to 14571 yuan/ton [17]. - **Industry Indicator Changes**: The commercial inventory increased by 24.2% to 363.97 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 4.9% to 93.14 million tons. The cotton export volume decreased by 0.3% to - 1685.60 million tons [17].

行业 农产品 2025 年 11 月 21 日 日期 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 周度报告 目录 contents |  | 油脂……………………………………………………-03- | | --- | --- | |  | 豆粕……………………………………………………-11- | |  | 鸡蛋……………… ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply is expected to remain in surplus in the 2025/26 season. With ample supply, the raw sugar price will likely stay weak. In the Chinese market, the old - sugar stock has been mostly cleared, new - sugar pressure is increasing, and the October import volume exceeded expectations, so the overall sugar market is expected to be weak [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Related Products**: The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the soybean meal supply is abundant. The downward space of the current futures price is limited, but it is difficult to strengthen based on cost and profit logic alone. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Pig**: The market supply has recovered, and the price has weakened again. Although the demand is expected to increase in the short - term due to cold weather and the start of curing in the southwest, the mid - term price is not optimistic, and the increased selling enthusiasm after price recovery is not conducive to the near - month futures market. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [6]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures are stable, supported by strong demand in the USDA report. In the domestic market, the short - term pressure from new cotton listing and high production, combined with weak downstream demand, may lead to a weak cotton price within a certain range, although the relatively low inventory of downstream spinning enterprises provides some support [8]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The supply in the Northeast is sufficient but the selling enthusiasm is low, and the market is quiet with stable prices. In North China, the number of trucks at deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the price has slightly increased. With about 20% of the new - season corn sold, there is still selling pressure. The demand from deep - processing and feed sectors is not strong. The corn market will have intensified long - short competition and narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term [10]. - **Edible Oils**: For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD futures may stop falling and strengthen after stabilizing at 4150 ringgit. The domestic palm oil may rise to the 8900 - 9000 yuan range. The overall view is near - weak and far - strong. For soybean oil, the CBOT soybean oil is in a short - term correction. The domestic soybean oil demand is weak, but the poor crushing profit provides some support, and the support for the January contract is around 8200 yuan [13]. - **Eggs**: The laying - hen inventory remains high, and the supply is abundant. The demand is weak, and the egg price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to stop profit on previous short positions and wait and see in the short - term [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased, the ICE raw sugar主力 slightly increased, the 1 - 5 spread widened, the main - contract position increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, the Nanning basis decreased, and the Kunming basis increased. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both quota - within and quota - outside) decreased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The national and Guangxi sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, the national sales rate decreased, the Guangxi sales rate increased, the national industrial inventory decreased, and the Guangxi and Yunnan industrial inventories increased. The sugar import volume increased [2]. Soybean Meal and Related Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot and futures prices of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased, the basis decreased significantly, the import crushing profit increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased slightly [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained unchanged, the futures price decreased slightly, the basis increased, the import crushing profit increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [4]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans increased, the futures prices of bean one and bean two decreased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [4]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal and rapeseed meal inter - month spreads, the oil - meal ratio, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed to different degrees [4]. Pig - **Futures Market**: The prices of pig 2601 and 2605 decreased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, the main - contract position increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [6]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in most regions decreased, and the slaughter volume, white - strip price, and other indicators changed slightly [6]. - **Industry Indicators**: The sample - point daily slaughter volume increased slightly, the weekly white - strip price decreased, the weekly piglet price increased, the sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight increased slightly, the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased slightly [6]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2601 and 2605 decreased slightly, the ICE US cotton主力 decreased, the 5 - 1 spread widened, the main - contract position decreased, the warehouse receipt increased, and the valid forecast decreased [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index increased slightly, the FC Index decreased, and the basis of 3128B to 01 and 05 contracts increased [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial and industrial inventories, the bonded - area inventory, and the cotton out - of - Xinjiang shipment volume increased month - on - month. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year, the yarn and fabric inventory days, and the clothing and textile exports changed to different degrees [8]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 decreased, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly, the south - north trade profit decreased, the import profit decreased, the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises decreased, the position increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly, the starch - corn 01 spread remained unchanged, the Shandong starch profit decreased, the position increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [10]. Edible Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased, the warehouse receipt remained unchanged, and the inter - month spread decreased [13]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased significantly, the import cost decreased, the import profit decreased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [13]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis decreased, the warehouse receipt decreased slightly, and the inter - month spread increased [13]. - **Spreads**: The inter - month spreads, the bean - palm spread, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread changed to different degrees [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 12 and 01 contracts increased, the basis decreased, and the 12 - 01 spread increased slightly [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price remained unchanged, the egg - chick price remained unchanged, the culled - hen price increased slightly, the egg - feed ratio increased, and the breeding profit increased [15].