下游库存偏高，豆粕维持震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 农产品日报 | 2026-03-03 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2826元/吨，较前日变动-7元/吨，幅度-0.25%；菜粕2605合约2295元/吨，较前日 变动+8元/吨，幅度+0.35%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3110元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+284， 较前日变动-23；江苏地区豆粕现货3010元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+184，较前日变动-3；广东地区 豆粕现货价格3030元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M05+204，较前日变动+7。福建地区菜粕现货价格2370 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+75，较前日变动-18。 近期市场资讯，布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所称，截至2月25日当周，目前69%的大豆作物评级正常至良好，低于一 周前的75%,，去年同期68%；73%的种植区水分条件适宜到最佳，高于一周前的66%，去年同期71%。大豆评级差 劣率的比例为29%，一周前25%，去年同期32%。 市场分析 近期宏观事件频发，需关注地缘冲突对于宏观及能源和运费方面的影响。当 ...

2026年03月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：基本面矛盾有限，关注油价扰动 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆成本支撑，区间运行为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：市场情绪稳定，或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货补涨，盘面回调 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：关注低基差机会 | 7 | | 棉花：等待新的驱动20260303 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：淡季被动累库格局难改，肥标驱动显现 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 油脂基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 03 月 03 日 研 究 棕榈油：基本面矛盾有限，关注油价扰动 豆油：美豆成本支撑，区间运行为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,898 ...

棕榈油上涨、生猪下挫 2. 棕榈油主力 2605 合约上涨扩大，站上中长期均线，技术转强， 策略上空单平仓，在支撑区域轻仓多单。 一、农产品板块综述 棕榈油企稳上扬，受到原油飙升以及马棕油产量下滑的提振，技 术企稳回升，后市或偏强运行。生猪下挫，节后进入传统消费淡季， 屠宰场对猪源需求承接不足，而供应端较为宽松，生猪期价承压走低， 后市或偏弱运行。白糖上扬，成本端支撑糖价，郑糖技术走强，偏强 运行。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）棕榈油：强劲上扬 焦点关注：棕榈油主力 2605 合约强劲回升，受到原油大涨以及 马棕油产量下滑提振： 1.美国打击伊朗，中东局势急剧升级，国际原油价格大幅飙升， 叠加生物柴油需求将改善，油脂板块受到提振而上涨，也带动棕油行 情走高。供应端，SPPOMA 数据显示马来西亚 2 月棕榈油产量环比下 降 19.35%，延续季节性回落，给棕油期价带来支撑。同时印尼将在 3 月 1 日起提高棕油出口关税，这有利于马来西亚棕油出口竞争力，或 令马棕油出口改善。棕榈油期价强劲上扬，走势转强。 （二）生猪：弱势下跌 焦点关注：生猪主力 2605 合约弱势下行，受到供应端压力： 1. 生猪存栏高企，3 月 ...

豆粕高位运行、白糖续升 一、农产品板块综述 豆粕先抑后扬，上涨趋势未变，美豆高位运行，成本端和通关扰 动等支撑豆粕价格，期价后市仍或偏强运行。白糖续升，技术强势支 撑价格走高，外盘原糖反弹以及国内成本支撑皆助推郑糖走高，后市 或仍有上行空间。棉花期价亦维持上升趋势，金三银四传统消费旺季 临近支撑棉价走高，后市预期仍有续升空间。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）豆粕：高位运行，涨势未变 焦点关注：豆粕主力 2605 合约先抑后扬，日线收长下影线，高 位波动，涨势未变： 1.CBOT 大豆期价受出口需求乐观情绪提振在三个月高点附近运 行，成本支撑连粕高位运行。市场消息国内海关 25 天检验延长政策 预计将延续到 5 月份，通关时间延长或导致国内进口大豆供应阶段性 偏紧，节后油厂开机仍在恢复中。豆粕主力合约高位运行，主趋势上 涨延续。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、博易云 2.豆粕主力 2605 合约先抑后扬，期价继续在均线系统上运行， MACD 金叉后红柱扩大，技术强势，策略上继续逢低多单，支撑 2815 —2825。 （二）白糖：继续上涨 焦点关注：郑糖主力 2605 合约继续上涨，受到外盘反弹提振以 及制糖成本的支撑： ...

农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，玉米增仓上行，玉米主力合约持仓增加 8 万余手，期价延续上行。春节过 | | | | 后，玉米现货补涨。因节后玉米期货表现较强，对现货市场有一定的影响，北港 | | | | 收购价格略高于节前。东北产区玉米价格在北港上涨以及运费下调的情况下也出 | | | | 现小幅度的上涨，但鉴于节后刚开市，市场购销暂不活跃。 华北地区玉米价格 | | | 玉米 | 稳中偏强运行。部分企业延续假期的上涨趋势，继续上调 10 元/吨。基层粮点陆 | 震荡偏强 | | | 续开工收购，但收购量恢复需要一定时间，基层购销活跃度不高，但部分贸易商 | | | | 顺价收购。技术上，节后玉米市场期现共振，期价上行，多头持仓可继续持有观 | | | | 望。 | | | | | 震荡 | | | 周三，CBOT 大豆触及三个月新高，因市场对美国对中国销售的预期升温。中方 对特朗普最新关税举措的克制回应以及中国假期结束，维持了市场对需求增长的 | | | | 预期。另外，美国环保署将于周三向 ...

农产品早报 2026-02-26 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 （1）分析机构（Hedgepoint Global Markets）预估巴西中南部地区 2026/27 榨季的糖产量为 4050 万吨， 较前一年度持平。其中预估甘蔗产量为 6.3 亿吨，同比增加 0.2 亿吨；甘蔗制糖比为 48.6%，同比减少 2 个百分点。（2）巴西航运机构 Williams 发布的数据显示，截至 2 月 18 日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖 的船只数量为 43 艘，此前一周为 53 艘。港口等待装运的食糖数量为 157.7 万吨，此前一周为 183 万吨。 （3）据印度糖业协会（ISMA）发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 2 月 15 日，印度食糖产量已达 2251 万吨，同比增加 274 万吨，其中 2 月上半月产糖 300 万吨，同比减 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 玉米：中性 1．市场梳理：春节期间东北天气经历先升后降，前期快速升温带来的地趴粮存储压力，已被近日的寒潮降温暂时缓解。2月21-22日，内蒙古东北部、黑龙 江等地出现较强降雪，气温显著下降，局地降温幅度达12-14℃。预计23日黑龙江、吉林等地仍有小到中雪，气温维持低位。节后地趴粮集中上量的紧迫性 暂时减轻。企业库存相对安全，价格平稳运行（黑龙江2249元/吨）；华北深加工企业节后补库需求释放，基层余粮约四成且质量分化，价格小幅上涨（山 东2315元/吨）。 2．外盘速览：美玉米春节期间维持高位震荡，主力5月合约收报439.75美分/蒲式耳，周度涨幅1.9%。上涨主要受美国农业部展望论坛预测2026年美玉米种 植面积低于市场预期支撑，且基金持有的玉米期货投机净空头头寸大幅下调。 3．市场关注&观点总结：节前玉米市场进入低波动、弱博弈阶段，现货与盘面均以整理运行为主，价格上下空间均受约束。在东北天气短暂降温，交易情 绪后移下，区域分化将延续，震荡通道仍将持续。 豆粕：中性 风险提示：本资讯由期货公司研究发展部分析师团队完成，资讯中的信息均来源于公 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the pig and egg sectors are neutral [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - The national average pig price continues its narrow - range oscillation, with regional price differentiation. Most areas are stable or slightly rising, while the Northeast is experiencing a slight decline. As the Spring Festival approaches, the slaughter volume has decreased after peaking, and the market's buying and selling sentiment has weakened. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival price callback and post - festival restocking [2] - The national egg spot price continues to decline, and the daily average decline has widened. With the approaching Spring Festival, logistics are restricted, leading to inventory accumulation in production areas and a weakening of egg prices. The terminal consumption is light, and there is a lack of substantial support for prices. The post - festival price callback range needs to be tracked [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2605 contract yesterday was 11,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 15.00 yuan/ton (- 0.13%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary pigs was 12.38 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.26 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 11.93 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.17 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 10.79 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous trading day [1] - Agricultural product prices: On February 12, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 129.48, up 0.03 points from the previous day; the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index was 132.31, up 0.04 points. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 18.07 yuan/kg, down 0.5% from the previous day; beef was 66.57 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; mutton was 65.06 yuan/kg, up 0.7%; eggs were 8.28 yuan/kg, up 0.5%; and white - striped chickens were 17.24 yuan/kg, down 0.9% [1] Market Analysis - The national average pig price shows a narrow - range oscillation, with regional differences. As the Spring Festival approaches, the scale farms' slaughter volume has decreased slightly, but the supply remains abundant. Some farmers are resisting price cuts, which supports price stability. The pre - festival centralized stocking is almost over, and the market's buying and selling sentiment has weakened. The slaughter volume has decreased after peaking, and southern regions will stop slaughtering later than the north. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival price callback and post - festival restocking [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for the pig market is neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2603 contract yesterday was 3200 yuan/500 kg, a change of + 277.00 yuan (+ 9.48%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.51 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.45 yuan/jin, a change of - 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.89 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The national egg spot price continues to decline, and the daily average decline has widened. As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics are restricted, leading to inventory accumulation in production areas and a weakening of egg prices. The terminal consumption is light, and there is a lack of substantial support for prices. The post - festival price callback range needs to be tracked [4][5] Strategy - The investment strategy for the egg market is neutral [6]

Market Performance - The corn May contract closed at 2322 CNY/ton with a daily increase of 0.13%, showing a brief uptick before the Spring Festival amid weak purchasing and sales [4][14] - The soybean meal market is neutral, with overseas markets assessing potential upward adjustments in U.S. soybean demand for the 2025/26 season, leading to a rise in CBOT soybean prices [4][14] Downstream Demand - Deep processing enterprises have begun to issue notices for reduced or halted purchases, indicating that pre-holiday stockpiling is largely complete; feed enterprises are primarily executing previous contracts with weak purchasing intentions [4][14] Market Focus & Summary - Post-holiday, the main divergence in market sentiment will focus on whether the northeastern grain supply will increase significantly with rising temperatures, and the real demand elasticity of corporate inventories in this context. The corn May contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2250–2275 CNY/ton before the holiday, with directional choices pending further validation of supply release and demand recovery after the holiday [4][14] - The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised its soybean production forecast for this year to 48 million tons from the previous 47 million tons, despite a decline in crop quality due to dry weather [5][15] Egg Market - The egg market is neutral to slightly bullish as various channels have paused current spot price quotes. The near-month contracts have seen significant increases following a weak reality check, with the 03 contract price reflecting support near cost levels [7][17] Operational Strategies - For the egg market, long positions in distant contracts like 2605 and 2606 may have value after the convergence of premiums, and attention can be given to opportunities arising from the expansion of price differences [8][18] - In the live pig market, the average price in major production areas is approximately 11.52 CNY/kg, with a planned slaughter volume of 22.92 million heads in February, reflecting a 17.73% decrease from January [9][19]

二、市场信息 1、据农业农村部监测，2 月 9 日"农产品批发价格 200 指数"为 129.51，比上周五下降 0.25 个点，"菜篮 子"产品批发价格指数为 132.33，比上周五下降 0.29 个点。截至今日 14:00 时，全国农产品批发市场猪肉 平均价格为 18.34 元/公斤，与上周五持平；牛肉 66.08 元/公斤，比上周五下降 0.6%；羊肉 64.51 元/公斤， 比上周五上升 0.1%；鸡蛋 8.39 元/公斤，比上周五下降 1.4%；白条鸡 17.18 元/公斤，比上周五下降 1.3%。 农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 点评 | 品种 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米主力 | | 2605 增仓上行，日线以长阳线收盘，期价大涨突破震荡区间上 | | | 沿，宏观和资金引领占据主导。本周受大豆上涨影响，玉米期价止跌上行。春节 | | | | | 前一周玉米 | | 3 月合约持仓向 5 月转移，现货休市等待期货方向指引。目前，市场 | | | 购销已不活跃，东北玉米价格以稳定为主。基层农户售粮积极性不高，产 ...