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关税会谈后,亚洲货币升值的逻辑变了?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-14 09:46
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that optimism in trade negotiations has alleviated downward pressure on the US dollar against Asian currencies, but Goldman Sachs believes the downward trend of the dollar against Asian currencies remains unchanged [1][2] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 Q4 US GDP growth forecast from 0.5% to 1.0% and reduced the probability of a US recession from 45% to 35% due to better-than-expected trade negotiations [2] - The expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts has been postponed, now anticipated in December 2025, March 2026, and June 2026, rather than previously expected in mid-2025 [2] Group 2 - Three core trends contributing to the ongoing downward pressure on the dollar are identified: 1. The dollar is still overvalued by approximately 17% according to Goldman Sachs' DEER valuation model [3] 2. Asian exporters are expected to continue converting dollars into local currencies, with foreign currency deposits in Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines nearly doubling from $300 billion in 2015 to nearly $600 billion by February 2025 [4] 3. Asian currencies may have a stronger ability to resist depreciation during trade negotiations, as most Asian economies have trade surpluses with the US, which could lead to a strengthening of Asian currencies against the dollar if trade surpluses are reduced [5]