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广发证券刘晨明:A股和港股的盈利研判框架需重大调整
Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-12-30 13:40
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the profitability assessment framework for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks needs significant adjustment, especially in light of the current market environment where traditional economic sectors like real estate, infrastructure, and domestic consumption have not shown improvement [1] - A-shares' non-financial sector ROE has stabilized for three consecutive quarters, which is historically unprecedented for A-shares to achieve a continuous valuation increase over three years [1] - The potential for valuation contributions in 2024 and 2025 raises questions about whether 2026 can break historical patterns, making it a point of interest for investors [1] Group 2 - Historically, the only instance of A-shares having the top five industry performance for three consecutive years occurred in the food and beverage sector from 2016 to 2020, raising questions about whether the communication and electronics sectors can break this trend in 2026 [2] - The electronic sector has reached a historical peak in institutional holdings, surpassing the "20% holding indicates a peak" threshold, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [2] - The TMT sector's trading volume has exceeded historical limits during each industrial cycle bull market, with this year's DeepSeek period seeing TMT trading volume surpassing previous records [2]