2026 年 01 月 27 日 国收+规模创历史新高，TMT ｵ 配置策略分歧凸显 -25Q4 固收+基金季报分析 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 固收+基金规模变化：1）本李度固收+基金规模再度上升，尽管规模变化的斜率不如 2025Q3，但总规模达到 2.18 万亿，已然创历史新高；2）按仓位类型看，中仓位的固收 +基金规模增加较多，按产品类型看,二级债基规模持续增加,一级债基规模小幅下滑; 3) 规模上升最多的产品包括景顺长城景盛双息、永赢稳健增强、华夏稳享增利 6个月滚 动等；4）本季度基金公司累计发行 43 只固收+基金，首发规模合计 457 亿元；5）管理 规模靠前的基金公司在管规模大多上升，景顺长城、汇添富、招商基金旗下固收+基金规 模增长较快，其中景顺长城基金在管固收+基金规模突破 2000 亿元，总规模位列市场第 固收+基金的投资特征：1）从仓位的变化上看，受到权益市场高位震荡的影响，各类固 C 收+产品普遍选择减仓止盈旦调整了行业结构，增持金融、周期等板块，减持医药、消费、 现金制造板块，对 TMT 板块的配置则呈现出较大的分歧；2）管理规模靠前的基金公司 行业配置观 ...

2026 年 01 月 27 日 固收+规模创历史新高，TMT 板块 配置策略分歧凸显 ——25Q4 固收+基金季报分析 相关研究 证券分析师 肖逸芳 A0230524110001 xiaoyf@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 肖逸芳 A0230524110001 xiaoyf@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 量 化 策 略 - ⚫ 固收+基金规模变化：1）本季度固收+基金规模再度上升，尽管规模变化的斜率不如 2025Q3，但总规模达到 2.18 万亿，已然创历史新高；2）按仓位类型看，中仓位的固收 +基金规模增加较多，按产品类型看，二级债基规模持续增加，一级债基规模小幅下滑； 3）规模上升最多的产品包括景顺长城景盛双息、永赢稳健增强、华夏稳享增利 6 个月滚 动等；4）本季度基金公司累计发行 43 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Shanghai 180 Index has shown a positive trend, with a notable increase in the manufacturing PMI, indicating a return to expansion after eight months [1] - The Shanghai 180 Index rose by 0.44%, with significant gains from constituent stocks such as Jiangxi Copper (up 9.91%) and Zijin Mining (up 5.09%) [1] - The recent market rally is attributed to a marginal easing of liquidity tightening expectations, which has led to a global risk asset recovery [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai 180 ETF closely tracks the Shanghai 180 Index, which consists of 180 large-cap and liquid stocks from the Shanghai market [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index account for 26.13% of the index, including major companies like Kweichow Moutai and Ping An Insurance [2] - The Shanghai 180 ETF has various connection funds available for investors, enhancing accessibility to the index [2]

中证报中证网讯(记者王鹤静)12月30日晚间，广发证券发展研究中心所长助理、首席策略分析师刘晨明 在中国证券报"金牛来了"直播间分享了其对A股投资的新思考。 刘晨明认为，A股和港股的盈利研判框架需重大调整。结合当前市场环境来看，在地产、基建、内需消 费等传统经济板块体感未有改善的情况下，A股非金融板块的ROE实现了连续三个季度的企稳。A股历 史上还没有出现过连续三年"提估值"的情况，在2024年至2025年连续两年估值正贡献的情况下，2026年 估值演绎能否打破历史规模值得关注。 刘晨明提出，A股连续三年行业涨幅排名前五的案例历史上只出现过一次，即2016年至2020年的食品饮 料行业，其它行业都无法连续领涨三年，2026年通信和电子行业的表现能否打破行业涨跌"事不过三"的 规律值得关注。今年电子行业的机构持仓达到历史单个行业的上限，也打破了所谓"20%持仓即见 顶"的"魔咒"，TMT板块持仓比例已超过当年的"茅指数"。每一次产业周期牛市中TMT成交占比都会突 破历史上限，今年DeepSeek时期TMT成交额占比突破历史。此外，继黄金2024年一季度突破历史周期 上沿后，今年LME铜价也突破了历史上每一轮涨价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-shares market is experiencing a downward trend, with the CSI A500 index down by 0.5%, and both the CSI A100 and A50 indices down by 0.7%. However, the A500 ETF from E Fund has seen significant inflows, indicating investor confidence and a potential for recovery in the market [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI A500 index decreased by 0.5%, while the CSI A100 and A50 indices both fell by 0.7% [1]. - The A500 ETF from E Fund recorded a net inflow of over 7.5 billion yuan last week, bringing its total size to 34.6 billion yuan, a historical high [1]. - The annualized tracking error of the A500 ETF is only 0.34%, with an excess return of 2.87% relative to the index, ranking first among similar products with over 10 billion yuan in size [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - According to Everbright Securities, internal policies remain proactive while external risks are gradually easing [1]. - The Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to continued marginal improvement in overseas liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of the A-share market are on an improving trend, with a low probability of continued decline, especially with the accelerated development of the AI industry, which is expected to enhance profitability in the TMT sector [1]. Group 3: Market Signals - Current valuation percentiles of the A-share market are relatively high, but the turnover rate is at a historical average level [1]. - The proportion of stocks reaching new highs in the A-share market is at a relatively low historical level [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the peak of a bull market is driven by multiple factors, including policy tightening, external risks, fundamental downturns, and market trading signals [1][15][16] - The report identifies three main categories of warning signals for a bull market peak: policy and external environment factors, fundamental factors, and market trading factors [1][15] - Historical examples illustrate that policy tightening and external risks have been significant warning signals in previous bull markets, such as the tightening of monetary policy and the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis from 2005 to 2007 [2][17][18] Group 2 - A downturn in fundamentals is highlighted as an important warning signal for a bull market peak, with indicators such as GDP growth rates and corporate profit growth showing consistent declines at the end of historical bull markets [2][35][40] - The report emphasizes that the decline in profitability of leading sectors serves as a key indicator for structural bull market peaks, as it reflects a shift in market sentiment and risk appetite [2][42][43] Group 3 - Trading signals are crucial for confirming a bull market peak, with high turnover rates and the number of stocks reaching new highs being significant indicators in a broad bull market [3][50] - The report notes that while absolute valuation levels may not effectively signal a peak, relative valuation metrics such as the five-year moving average of price-to-earnings ratios can indicate market overheating [3][62][63] Group 4 - The current A-share market does not show clear warning signals of a bull market peak, with supportive internal policies and improving fundamentals suggesting continued market performance [4][12] - The report indicates that while current market valuations are relatively high, turnover rates are at historical average levels, and the proportion of stocks reaching new highs is low, which does not signal an imminent peak [4][27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TMT sector led the gains on December 15, 2025, and three ETFs in the non - ferrous sector were filed for application. The performance and fund flow of ETFs showed significant differences across different markets and sectors [1] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Index Product Establishment, Fund - raising, and Application - **Product Establishment and Listing**: In the past week, 4 ETF products such as Dongcai CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF and Bosera CSI Bank ETF were listed, and 11 products including Baoying CSI A500 Index Enhancement A were established. Many CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence ETFs were recently established and listed [1][5] - **Product Issuance Information**: In the coming week, 18 index products will end their fund - raising, including Changxin Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Comprehensive Index Enhancement A. Nine index products will start fund - raising, such as GF Guozheng Industrial Software Theme ETF [1][7] - **Product Application Information**: A total of 34 index products were applied for in the past week. With the rising trend of non - ferrous metals in the past few months, the attention of non - ferrous ETF products has further increased. Three non - ferrous sector ETFs were applied for, including Penghua and Bosera's application for the CSI Industrial Non - ferrous Metals Theme ETF and Invesco Great Wall's application for the CSI Non - ferrous Metals Mining Theme ETF [1][9] 3.2 ETF Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: In the past week (December 8 - 12, 2025), the main broad - based ETFs in the A - share market showed mixed performance. The Growth Enterprise Market 50ETF and the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF had relatively high increases of 2.92% and 1.86% respectively. The main broad - based ETFs in the Hong Kong and US stock markets slightly corrected, with the Hang Seng ETF and the Nasdaq ETF falling 1.00% and 1.92% respectively. Among commodity ETFs, the non - ferrous ETF rose 1.33%, while the energy and chemical ETF fell 3.31% [2][11] - **Industry - based Performance**: The major industry ETFs also showed mixed performance. The technology category had the highest increase this week, with the communication ETF having the highest increase of 6.85%. Among the broad - based categories, the Growth Enterprise Market 50ETF rose 2.92%, and among the cyclical categories, the coal ETF had a relatively high decline of 3.88% [2][13] - **Cross - border ETF Performance**: In the past week, the main broad - based indices of cross - border markets showed mixed performance, with the Topix Index having the highest increase of 1.82%. Among global market - corresponding ETFs, the Huatai - Peregrine CSI KRX Korea - China Semiconductor ETF rose 1.59%, and the Huaan Germany 30 (DAX) ETF rose 1.13% [16] - **Non - currency ETF Performance**: Among non - currency ETFs, the Huaxia Growth Enterprise Market Artificial Intelligence ETF led the gains with a return of 7.40% in the past week, while the Huifutong Nasdaq 100ETF was relatively lagging with a return of - 4.67% [19] 3.3 ETF Fund Flow - **Overall ETF Scale**: As of December 12, 2025, there were 1,304 ETFs in the entire market, with a total scale of 5,662.825 billion yuan, an increase of 16.933 billion yuan from the previous week. The A - share and cross - border ETFs ranked top two in terms of scale, with values of 3,642.161 billion yuan and 935.749 billion yuan respectively. The scale of A - share ETFs increased by 100.95 billion yuan in the past week [21] - **Net Inflow and Outflow of Non - currency ETF Funds**: Among non - currency ETFs, the ETFs with the CSI A500 as the underlying had the largest net inflow of funds, with an inflow of 9.694 billion yuan. The ETFs tracking the Growth Enterprise Market Index had the largest net outflow, with a total outflow of 3.148 billion yuan [24] - **High - inflow and High - liquidity ETFs**: In the past week, the Southern CSI A500ETF and the Harvest CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF had relatively high fund inflows of 3.771 billion yuan and 2.648 billion yuan respectively. The Haifutong CSI Short - term Financing ETF led in liquidity, with an average daily trading volume of 317.89 billion yuan in the past week, and the Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark Market - making Treasury Bond ETF also had relatively high liquidity, with an average daily trading volume of 103.05 billion yuan [28]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced declines in November, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index down nearly 3%, and the ChiNext Index down over 4%. As December approaches, various brokerages have released their recommended stocks for the month, revealing interesting trends in investment preferences [1]. Group 1: Popular Stocks - Midea Group is highlighted as a "popular stock" for December, being included in the recommendation lists of four brokerages. The company shows strong fundamentals in its home appliance business, rapid growth in its new energy and industrial technology sectors, and recent advancements in AI and robotics [3]. - Zhongji Xuchuang is also recommended by three brokerages, having increased by over 8% in November, with a current stock price of 514.5 yuan. The company has a clear technological advantage in the optical module field and is seeing a steady increase in overseas orders [4]. - Not all recommended stocks performed well; for instance, Goldwind Technology saw a decline of 1.85% in November, which may present a better entry opportunity for investors [4]. Group 2: Hot Investment Sectors - The cyclical sector is favored by multiple brokerages, particularly in the basic chemicals and industrial technology fields. Analysts suggest that the end-of-year policy window may validate a "policy bottom," potentially serving as a catalyst for economic growth in 2026 [5]. - The consumer sector is also noted, with a focus on previously lagging consumer stocks that tend to perform better during market fluctuations. The trend of consumption upgrading continues, especially among leading high-end and essential consumer goods, which exhibit strong defensive characteristics and stable long-term returns [5]. - The technology growth sector is advised to focus on less crowded areas. After adjustments in October, concerns regarding AI have largely dissipated, making sectors like gaming, media, and computing more attractive in terms of valuation [5]. Group 3: Mid to Long-term Investment Strategies - A combination of cyclical stocks and policy bottom strategies is recommended, with a focus on monitoring end-of-year policy developments, especially in fiscal and industrial policies, targeting leading companies in chemicals and industrial technology [6]. - Differentiated investments in the technology sector are advised, avoiding overheated AI stocks and concentrating on reasonably valued segments like gaming, media, and computing, with a patient approach to waiting for rotation opportunities [7]. - A balanced allocation strategy is suggested, with 30% in high-dividend, low-volatility financial and consumer leaders as a stabilizing force, and 70% in cyclical and technology growth sectors for aggressive positioning [8]. - A global perspective is encouraged to capture opportunities in resource commodities like gold and copper, as well as in manufacturing sectors benefiting from overseas interest rate cuts, preparing for a potential global economic recovery [8].

Core Insights - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index has shown a slight increase of 0.12% as of November 19, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Sinopec (up 4.14%) and China National Petroleum (up 3.24%) [1] - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) has also increased by 0.08%, indicating a positive trend in dividend-focused investments [1] - In a weak recovery environment, dividend strategies are currently favored over TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors, as the latter shows signs of profit-taking [1] - The index reflects the performance of 100 listed companies with high and stable cash dividend yields, selected from state-owned enterprises [1] Market Performance - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index account for 17.08% of the index, with companies like COSCO Shipping and Jizhong Energy leading the list [2] - The trading volume for the National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF reached 203.39 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.55% [1] Investment Strategy - Financial analysts suggest focusing on stable dividend assets due to their defensive attributes in the current market environment, as uncertainties remain high [1] - The preference for stable dividend stocks over cyclical ones is emphasized, given the ongoing challenges in global demand and domestic infrastructure development [1]

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index has decreased by 1.04% as of November 18, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, where BlueFocus leads with a rise of 12.77% and Xinzhou Bang falls by 9.69% [1] - The ChiNext ETF by Bosera has seen a recent decline of 1.15%, with the latest price at 2.85 yuan, but has accumulated a rise of 5.72% over the past month [1] - The trading volume for the ChiNext ETF reached 16.96 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.4% during the session [1] Group 2 - According to Minsheng Jianyin Fund's report, the TMT sector's holding ratio in funds has reached nearly 40%, marking a historical high, while the market style is shifting from technology growth to dividend and cyclical sectors due to profit-taking by institutional investors [2] - The latest scale of the ChiNext ETF by Bosera is 1.211 billion yuan, closely tracking the ChiNext Index, which consists of 100 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity [3] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the ChiNext Index account for 58.2% of the index, including companies like CATL and Mindray [3]