Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Shanghai 180 Index has shown a positive trend, with a notable increase in the manufacturing PMI, indicating a return to expansion after eight months [1] - The Shanghai 180 Index rose by 0.44%, with significant gains from constituent stocks such as Jiangxi Copper (up 9.91%) and Zijin Mining (up 5.09%) [1] - The recent market rally is attributed to a marginal easing of liquidity tightening expectations, which has led to a global risk asset recovery [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai 180 ETF closely tracks the Shanghai 180 Index, which consists of 180 large-cap and liquid stocks from the Shanghai market [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index account for 26.13% of the index, including major companies like Kweichow Moutai and Ping An Insurance [2] - The Shanghai 180 ETF has various connection funds available for investors, enhancing accessibility to the index [2]

中证报中证网讯(记者王鹤静)12月30日晚间，广发证券发展研究中心所长助理、首席策略分析师刘晨明 在中国证券报"金牛来了"直播间分享了其对A股投资的新思考。 刘晨明认为，A股和港股的盈利研判框架需重大调整。结合当前市场环境来看，在地产、基建、内需消 费等传统经济板块体感未有改善的情况下，A股非金融板块的ROE实现了连续三个季度的企稳。A股历 史上还没有出现过连续三年"提估值"的情况，在2024年至2025年连续两年估值正贡献的情况下，2026年 估值演绎能否打破历史规模值得关注。 刘晨明提出，A股连续三年行业涨幅排名前五的案例历史上只出现过一次，即2016年至2020年的食品饮 料行业，其它行业都无法连续领涨三年，2026年通信和电子行业的表现能否打破行业涨跌"事不过三"的 规律值得关注。今年电子行业的机构持仓达到历史单个行业的上限，也打破了所谓"20%持仓即见 顶"的"魔咒"，TMT板块持仓比例已超过当年的"茅指数"。每一次产业周期牛市中TMT成交占比都会突 破历史上限，今年DeepSeek时期TMT成交额占比突破历史。此外，继黄金2024年一季度突破历史周期 上沿后，今年LME铜价也突破了历史上每一轮涨价 ...

每日经济新闻 截至收盘，中证A500指数下跌0.5%，中证A100指数、中证A50指数均下跌0.7%。根据Wind数据，A500ETF易方达（159361）上周合计净流入超75亿元，最 新规模达346亿元、创历史新高。截至12月26日，该产品今年以来年化跟踪误差仅0.34%，相对指数超额收益为2.87%、在规模百亿以上的同类产品中位居第 一。 光大证券研报称，从本轮的情况来看，内部政策仍积极发力，外部风险逐步缓释；美联储仍处于降息周期，海外流动性或继续边际改善；A股基本面处于改 善趋势之中，未来持续下行的概率较小，且AI产业加速发展的背景下，TMT板块的盈利也有望持续改善。从交易信号来看，当前A股市场估值分位数相对较 高，但当前A股市场的换手率位于历史中等水平，A股创新高的数量占比处于历史相对低位。 | A500ETF易方达 低费率 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 跟踪中证A500指数 | | | | | 该指数由各行业市值较大、流 | ▽日 | 该指数 | 该指数 | | 动性较好的500只证券组成, | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 以来估 | | 覆盖93个三级 ...

2025 年 12 月 26 日 策略研究 A 股牛市见顶三重预警框架 ——解密牛市系列之五 要点 历史来看，牛市见顶是多重因素共同作用的结果 从历史市场运行规律来看，牛市见顶绝非单一因素偶然触发的结果，而是多重因素 长期积累、相互交织并形成合力后的必然趋势。具体而言，导致牛市见顶的核心因 素可归纳为三大类，分别是政策与外部环境类因素、基本面类因素以及市场交易类 因素。其中，政策收紧或外部风险冲击是重要的前置影响变量，基本面回落是趋势 反转的核心验证变量，而交易信号则是见顶的最终确认变量。 牛市见顶的三类预警信号 政策边际收紧与外部风险是牛市见顶的核心预警信号之一。具体来看，2005-2007 年牛市见顶的预警信号包括内部政策收紧（多次提准、上调印花税）与外部次贷危 机的共振冲击；2013-2015 年牛市见顶的预警信号包括杠杆资金调控政策收紧（严 查场外配资、规范融资融券）；2016-2018 年牛市见顶的预警信号包括金融去杠杆 政策（资管新规征求意见稿、规范投融资行为）与外部贸易摩擦、全球流动性收紧； 2019-2021 年牛市见顶预警信号包括行业针对性政策（房地产调控、平台经济反 垄断、校外培训监管）与 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TMT sector led the gains on December 15, 2025, and three ETFs in the non - ferrous sector were filed for application. The performance and fund flow of ETFs showed significant differences across different markets and sectors [1] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Index Product Establishment, Fund - raising, and Application - **Product Establishment and Listing**: In the past week, 4 ETF products such as Dongcai CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF and Bosera CSI Bank ETF were listed, and 11 products including Baoying CSI A500 Index Enhancement A were established. Many CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence ETFs were recently established and listed [1][5] - **Product Issuance Information**: In the coming week, 18 index products will end their fund - raising, including Changxin Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Comprehensive Index Enhancement A. Nine index products will start fund - raising, such as GF Guozheng Industrial Software Theme ETF [1][7] - **Product Application Information**: A total of 34 index products were applied for in the past week. With the rising trend of non - ferrous metals in the past few months, the attention of non - ferrous ETF products has further increased. Three non - ferrous sector ETFs were applied for, including Penghua and Bosera's application for the CSI Industrial Non - ferrous Metals Theme ETF and Invesco Great Wall's application for the CSI Non - ferrous Metals Mining Theme ETF [1][9] 3.2 ETF Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: In the past week (December 8 - 12, 2025), the main broad - based ETFs in the A - share market showed mixed performance. The Growth Enterprise Market 50ETF and the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF had relatively high increases of 2.92% and 1.86% respectively. The main broad - based ETFs in the Hong Kong and US stock markets slightly corrected, with the Hang Seng ETF and the Nasdaq ETF falling 1.00% and 1.92% respectively. Among commodity ETFs, the non - ferrous ETF rose 1.33%, while the energy and chemical ETF fell 3.31% [2][11] - **Industry - based Performance**: The major industry ETFs also showed mixed performance. The technology category had the highest increase this week, with the communication ETF having the highest increase of 6.85%. Among the broad - based categories, the Growth Enterprise Market 50ETF rose 2.92%, and among the cyclical categories, the coal ETF had a relatively high decline of 3.88% [2][13] - **Cross - border ETF Performance**: In the past week, the main broad - based indices of cross - border markets showed mixed performance, with the Topix Index having the highest increase of 1.82%. Among global market - corresponding ETFs, the Huatai - Peregrine CSI KRX Korea - China Semiconductor ETF rose 1.59%, and the Huaan Germany 30 (DAX) ETF rose 1.13% [16] - **Non - currency ETF Performance**: Among non - currency ETFs, the Huaxia Growth Enterprise Market Artificial Intelligence ETF led the gains with a return of 7.40% in the past week, while the Huifutong Nasdaq 100ETF was relatively lagging with a return of - 4.67% [19] 3.3 ETF Fund Flow - **Overall ETF Scale**: As of December 12, 2025, there were 1,304 ETFs in the entire market, with a total scale of 5,662.825 billion yuan, an increase of 16.933 billion yuan from the previous week. The A - share and cross - border ETFs ranked top two in terms of scale, with values of 3,642.161 billion yuan and 935.749 billion yuan respectively. The scale of A - share ETFs increased by 100.95 billion yuan in the past week [21] - **Net Inflow and Outflow of Non - currency ETF Funds**: Among non - currency ETFs, the ETFs with the CSI A500 as the underlying had the largest net inflow of funds, with an inflow of 9.694 billion yuan. The ETFs tracking the Growth Enterprise Market Index had the largest net outflow, with a total outflow of 3.148 billion yuan [24] - **High - inflow and High - liquidity ETFs**: In the past week, the Southern CSI A500ETF and the Harvest CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF had relatively high fund inflows of 3.771 billion yuan and 2.648 billion yuan respectively. The Haifutong CSI Short - term Financing ETF led in liquidity, with an average daily trading volume of 317.89 billion yuan in the past week, and the Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark Market - making Treasury Bond ETF also had relatively high liquidity, with an average daily trading volume of 103.05 billion yuan [28]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced declines in November, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index down nearly 3%, and the ChiNext Index down over 4%. As December approaches, various brokerages have released their recommended stocks for the month, revealing interesting trends in investment preferences [1]. Group 1: Popular Stocks - Midea Group is highlighted as a "popular stock" for December, being included in the recommendation lists of four brokerages. The company shows strong fundamentals in its home appliance business, rapid growth in its new energy and industrial technology sectors, and recent advancements in AI and robotics [3]. - Zhongji Xuchuang is also recommended by three brokerages, having increased by over 8% in November, with a current stock price of 514.5 yuan. The company has a clear technological advantage in the optical module field and is seeing a steady increase in overseas orders [4]. - Not all recommended stocks performed well; for instance, Goldwind Technology saw a decline of 1.85% in November, which may present a better entry opportunity for investors [4]. Group 2: Hot Investment Sectors - The cyclical sector is favored by multiple brokerages, particularly in the basic chemicals and industrial technology fields. Analysts suggest that the end-of-year policy window may validate a "policy bottom," potentially serving as a catalyst for economic growth in 2026 [5]. - The consumer sector is also noted, with a focus on previously lagging consumer stocks that tend to perform better during market fluctuations. The trend of consumption upgrading continues, especially among leading high-end and essential consumer goods, which exhibit strong defensive characteristics and stable long-term returns [5]. - The technology growth sector is advised to focus on less crowded areas. After adjustments in October, concerns regarding AI have largely dissipated, making sectors like gaming, media, and computing more attractive in terms of valuation [5]. Group 3: Mid to Long-term Investment Strategies - A combination of cyclical stocks and policy bottom strategies is recommended, with a focus on monitoring end-of-year policy developments, especially in fiscal and industrial policies, targeting leading companies in chemicals and industrial technology [6]. - Differentiated investments in the technology sector are advised, avoiding overheated AI stocks and concentrating on reasonably valued segments like gaming, media, and computing, with a patient approach to waiting for rotation opportunities [7]. - A balanced allocation strategy is suggested, with 30% in high-dividend, low-volatility financial and consumer leaders as a stabilizing force, and 70% in cyclical and technology growth sectors for aggressive positioning [8]. - A global perspective is encouraged to capture opportunities in resource commodities like gold and copper, as well as in manufacturing sectors benefiting from overseas interest rate cuts, preparing for a potential global economic recovery [8].

Core Insights - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index has shown a slight increase of 0.12% as of November 19, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Sinopec (up 4.14%) and China National Petroleum (up 3.24%) [1] - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) has also increased by 0.08%, indicating a positive trend in dividend-focused investments [1] - In a weak recovery environment, dividend strategies are currently favored over TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors, as the latter shows signs of profit-taking [1] - The index reflects the performance of 100 listed companies with high and stable cash dividend yields, selected from state-owned enterprises [1] Market Performance - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index account for 17.08% of the index, with companies like COSCO Shipping and Jizhong Energy leading the list [2] - The trading volume for the National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF reached 203.39 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.55% [1] Investment Strategy - Financial analysts suggest focusing on stable dividend assets due to their defensive attributes in the current market environment, as uncertainties remain high [1] - The preference for stable dividend stocks over cyclical ones is emphasized, given the ongoing challenges in global demand and domestic infrastructure development [1]

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index has decreased by 1.04% as of November 18, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, where BlueFocus leads with a rise of 12.77% and Xinzhou Bang falls by 9.69% [1] - The ChiNext ETF by Bosera has seen a recent decline of 1.15%, with the latest price at 2.85 yuan, but has accumulated a rise of 5.72% over the past month [1] - The trading volume for the ChiNext ETF reached 16.96 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.4% during the session [1] Group 2 - According to Minsheng Jianyin Fund's report, the TMT sector's holding ratio in funds has reached nearly 40%, marking a historical high, while the market style is shifting from technology growth to dividend and cyclical sectors due to profit-taking by institutional investors [2] - The latest scale of the ChiNext ETF by Bosera is 1.211 billion yuan, closely tracking the ChiNext Index, which consists of 100 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity [3] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the ChiNext Index account for 58.2% of the index, including companies like CATL and Mindray [3]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Trends - The State Council emphasizes enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand to further promote consumption, focusing on upgrading consumption to lead industrial upgrades and developing new products and services in key industries [2] - The Chinese government warns citizens to avoid traveling to Japan due to rising safety concerns and incidents involving Chinese nationals, which could impact tourism and related sectors [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to make the capital market more resilient and attractive, with a focus on improving the quality of listed companies and regulatory effectiveness [4] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Samsung Electronics has raised contract prices for server memory chips by up to 60% due to a shortage driven by the global AI data center construction boom [5][6] - Former President Trump has signed an order to lower tariffs on various goods, including beef and coffee, in an effort to reduce consumer prices amid pressure from voters [7] - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has added Alphabet to its investment portfolio while reducing its stake in Apple, indicating a strategic shift towards technology stocks [10] Group 3: Brokerage Insights - Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that the current market is in a "bull market 1.0" phase, with high valuation areas and potential for short-term fluctuations, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors [12] - Guojin Securities highlights a divergence in investment and consumption trends, with a focus on the interplay between electricity and computing power in China [14] - Huashan Securities notes that while economic data is weakening, there are still opportunities in sectors like energy storage, military, and machinery, despite a challenging market environment [15] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Cinda Securities indicates that domestic liquidity is weakening, but the market is expected to continue rotating between technology and cyclical stocks [16] - Everbright Securities believes the market is still in a bull phase but may experience wide fluctuations in the short term, with a focus on defensive and consumer sectors [18] - Galaxy Securities anticipates continued market volatility with a focus on lithium battery and consumer sectors, while also preparing for next year's economic outlook [19] Group 5: Inflation and Economic Data - Zhongtai Securities expects that the recent inflation data will lead to a market phase characterized by upward movement and structural dominance, with technology and cyclical sectors remaining key areas of focus [21] - Xingzheng Securities suggests that the recent global rebalancing will provide opportunities for growth sectors like AI, while also emphasizing the importance of structural changes in the economy [22] - Bank of China highlights the potential for a "price increase diffusion" trend in the market, with expectations of a fluctuating market around the 4000-point level [23]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 红利国企ETF（510720）跟踪的是上国红利指数（000151），该指数从沪市选取现金股息率高、分红稳 定且具有一定规模及流动性的证券作为指数样本，以反映高股息率证券的整体表现。指数成分股主要分 布在能源、金融、工业等行业，权重结构较为分散，旨在为投资者提供稳定的股息收益。 财通证券指出，在景气弱复苏环境下，红利与TMT板块呈现相互摆动特征；当前TMT板块存在止盈动 力，使得红利策略阶段性占优。叠加红利相对表现已回升至2023年初水平，其胜率与赔率均呈现向好趋 势。从资金面看，主力资金当前主要关注杠杆资金，后续可能转向险资和汇金托底资金，此类资金偏好 更倾向于红利资产。此外，年底若市场进入震荡阶段，日历效应显示银行与红利板块是配置首选，尤其 在政策窗口期前1个月至会议后阶段，红利风格表现相对稳健。 ...