Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing downward pressure due to multiple macroeconomic factors, including a rebound in the US dollar and seasonal liquidity tightening ahead of the Spring Festival, which has led to a lack of upward momentum in lead prices [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - Domestic environmental policies are tightening, increasing compliance production costs and providing a solid bottom support for prices [1]. - Winter mining restrictions and difficulties in recycling waste batteries have led to a tight supply of both primary and recycled lead, constraining overall production [1]. - Although social inventories have slightly accumulated, their absolute levels remain low, exerting weak pressure on prices [1]. Demand Side Summary - Pre-holiday demand is cooling, with downstream companies adopting a "just-in-time purchasing" strategy, leading to a lack of trading activity in the spot market [2]. - The automotive starter battery sector maintains steady demand, but the electric bicycle battery market continues to be sluggish [2]. - Short-term rebound potential for lead prices is limited due to the traditional off-season for demand and cautious market sentiment [2]. Market Outlook - In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain under pressure, with potential for technical rebounds dependent on a decline in the US dollar or unexpected increases in pre-holiday stocking [2]. - In the medium to long term, clear bottom support for lead prices is anticipated due to rising industry costs from domestic solid waste policies and tight supply of recycled lead materials [2]. - Key variables influencing lead price fluctuations include the US Federal Reserve's policy direction, the movement of the US dollar, and the recovery pace of downstream demand post-holiday [2].