今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报16640-16740元/吨，均价16690元，较前一日价格下 跌50元；广东现货市场1#铅报16585-16685元/吨，均价16635元，较前一日价格下跌50元。今日现货铅 市场报价在16550-16740元/吨之间，对比沪期铅2602合约贴水195-贴水5元/吨，沪期铅2603合约贴水 100-升水90元/吨。 ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价小跌，2026年2月13日，国内金属市场在春节前最后一个交易日全 线承压。这一走势主要受到内外双重冲击：外部，美国1月核心CPI数据超预期，浇灭了市场对美联储 近期降息的期望，引发全球风险资产抛售潮，美股重挫、美元反弹，直接压制以美元计价的基本金属价 格。内部，适逢春节长假前夕，下游需求已进入季节性冰点，市场交投清淡，投资者避险情绪升温，资 金集中离场以规避休市期间的外盘波动风险。在宏观预期逆转与节前避险需求共振下，金属板块普遍回 调，其中金融属性较强的铜、锡等品种跌幅居前。值得注意的是，铅价因自身供需双弱、金融属性偏弱 而表现出相对抗跌的窄幅震荡特征，成为市场中的"稳定器"。整体来看，市场正从对流动性宽松的乐 ...

【ccmn.cn铅期货市场】隔夜伦铅收涨，开盘报1974.50美元/吨，高点报1996美元，低点报1974.5美元， 尾盘收于1994.50美元，涨17美元，涨幅0.86%；成交量5034手，持仓量175914手。长江铅业网 (pb.ccmn.cn)今日现货铅价行情预估：昨夜，美国1月非农数据重磅来袭，新增就业远超预期，市场应声 将美联储首次降息时点从6月推迟至7月之后。然而，细看之下，强劲表象背后是全年就业数据的大幅下 修，这使市场共识迅速凝聚为一点：降息只是推迟，而非取消。这一核心预期正在重塑全球资产格局。 美元在短暂冲高后回落，中期贬值压力未变。美股市场呈现鲜明分化，受AI算力需求驱动的存储芯片 板块逆势大涨。真正的狂欢属于基本金属，在"供应约束、库存低位、新能源需求、弱美元预期、地缘 溢价"五大因素强力共振下，伦镍、伦锡、伦铜等价格全线飙升，一个崭新的"超级周期"特征已跃然纸 上。今日，市场目光将转向美国CPI等关键数据，以寻找更多利率路径线索。核心结论明确：宏观主线 已进入"预期修正"的过渡期，结构性机会凸显。AI算力硬件与上游资源金属（尤其是镍、锡、铜）正成 为资金追逐的确定性最强主线。金属市场的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a significant price increase driven by strong macroeconomic factors and marginal support from the industry, with expectations of improved demand due to domestic investment policies and a favorable global pricing environment [1][2]. Supply Side - The lead supply is currently contracting, with a general decrease in the operating rates of primary and recycled lead enterprises due to the upcoming Spring Festival and regular maintenance schedules [1]. - Despite low processing fees for imported lead concentrates indicating tight raw material availability, smelters are slowing production as pre-holiday stockpiling has been largely completed, leading to a temporary accumulation of raw material inventories [1]. Demand and Inventory - Downstream demand is experiencing seasonal weakness, particularly in lead-acid battery enterprises, which are reducing operations as the Spring Festival approaches [2]. - However, optimistic expectations for post-holiday demand, driven by domestic investment policies, are providing key emotional support for the market [2]. - Both domestic and international lead ingot inventories remain at low levels, effectively buffering the impact of short-term supply and demand weaknesses on prices [2]. Market Trading and Industry Chain - The market is entering a typical pre-holiday quiet period, with limited transactions and a focus on risk control rather than proactive production increases [2]. - The overall trading environment is characterized by a lack of activity, with macroeconomic sentiment and capital movements becoming the primary factors influencing short-term pricing [2]. Leading Enterprises Insight - Representative companies in the industry are showing stable growth amid cyclical recovery, with high-value-added businesses like precious metal recycling becoming core profit drivers [2]. - Future strategies are focused on expanding recycled lead capacity and entering high-purity metals and advanced materials sectors, although challenges such as cash flow pressure and sensitivity to lead price fluctuations remain [2]. Pre-Holiday Market Outlook - The lead price is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival, supported by macroeconomic benefits and tight inventory levels [3]. - However, due to stagnant physical trading and reduced market liquidity, price movements may be amplified by capital market sentiment [3]. Post-Holiday Layout Outlook - After the Spring Festival, the non-ferrous metal sector is anticipated to present significant layout opportunities, with a focus on the transmission and validation of macro policies to real demand [4]. - Key factors for the lead market will include the recovery intensity of downstream battery enterprises and whether demand in infrastructure sectors materializes as expected [4]. - Investors are advised to focus on two main lines: traditional cyclical leaders benefiting from industry recovery and pioneers in resource recycling and high-purity new materials with long-term growth potential [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the lead market is experiencing a weak balance between supply and demand, with domestic lead ingot and smelter inventories accumulating, which suppresses lead prices, while overseas inventory reduction provides slight support [1][2] - The supply side shows that the processing fees for lead concentrate are at low levels, and the price of recycled batteries remains strong, pushing up smelting costs. However, domestic lead ingot social inventories have reached a two-month high, creating pressure that offsets the benefits of supply reduction [1][2] - Demand is characterized by a decline in domestic lead-acid battery production and low procurement volumes as pre-holiday demand wanes. Although overseas demand shows slight recovery, it is insufficient to counterbalance the core weakness in the market [1][2] Group 2 - The industry chain reflects a dual weakness in supply and demand, with the core feature being the differentiation in inventories between domestic and international markets. Both upstream and downstream are contracting, leading to a suppression of lead prices domestically, while overseas inventory reduction provides slight traction [2] - Leading companies, such as Yuguang Gold Lead, are expected to see steady growth in performance by the end of 2025, with increased lead production capacity and ongoing overseas resource development and technology research [2] - The spot trading environment is characterized by a pre-holiday effect, with light trading and stable discounts. The primary lead spot prices follow narrow fluctuations in futures, and after the end of downstream demand replenishment, procurement has ceased, further suppressing trading activity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is under pressure due to a combination of external and internal negative factors, leading to a bearish outlook for lead prices in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight lead futures in London closed at $1970.5 per ton, down $24.5, or 1.23%, with a trading volume of 10,723 contracts and an open interest of 170,925 contracts [1]. - The current lead price is expected to continue a weak oscillation pattern, with overall performance leaning towards weakness and difficulty in achieving a significant rebound [1]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar and the hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve are suppressing the valuations of industrial metals, including lead, while causing funds to flow out of the non-ferrous metal sector [2]. - The industry is experiencing a "double weakness" in supply and demand; although supply is contracting due to refinery maintenance and production cuts, the demand side is weak, particularly in the lead-acid battery sector, which is facing high finished goods inventory and sluggish sales [2]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - In the short term, lead prices are expected to face downward pressure, likely fluctuating around the cost line of recycled lead, with a need for two signals to confirm a substantial market turnaround: post-Spring Festival recovery in downstream production and a clear correction in macro policy expectations [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach in the short term to avoid blind bottom-fishing, while mid-term strategies should focus on monitoring the recovery pace and inventory replenishment in the downstream sector after the holiday [4].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a downward trend due to a combination of external macroeconomic factors and internal supply-demand dynamics, leading to significant price declines in both futures and spot markets [1][2]. Supply Side - Seasonal reductions in lead production due to winter adjustments in northern mines and maintenance at smelting plants are being overshadowed by high inventory levels, which have reached a two-month high, exerting downward pressure on prices [2]. - The cost structure is showing divergence; while processing fees for imported lead concentrate remain low, increasing smelting costs are pushing some recycled lead producers into losses, prompting early production cuts [2]. Demand Side - The lead consumption is heavily reliant on the battery industry, which is currently underperforming due to declining demand for electric bicycles and weaker export orders for automotive batteries [2]. - High finished goods inventory levels at battery manufacturers have led to a significant drop in production and procurement willingness, with the anticipated pre-holiday stockpiling failing to materialize [2]. Spot Market and Short-term Outlook - The spot market is experiencing extremely low trading activity, with sellers lowering prices due to futures declines and financial pressures, while buyers show little purchasing interest, resulting in a "price without market" scenario [2]. - In the short term, lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend, influenced by macroeconomic pressures and persistent supply-demand imbalances, with limited potential for significant rebounds until clear signs of order recovery and inventory reduction in the battery sector emerge [2].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and weak demand, leading to a bearish outlook for lead prices in the short term [1][5]. Supply Side - Lead supply is characterized by a "passive contraction," with primary lead smelters reducing output due to seasonal maintenance and secondary lead producers cutting back or halting production due to industry-wide losses and weak demand [1][3]. - Despite a tightening supply of lead concentrate, the overall supply reduction has not supported prices due to a more severe contraction in demand, creating an imbalance of "supply reduction with weaker demand" [1][2]. Demand Side - The core demand for lead is significantly weak, particularly in the lead-acid battery sector, which has seen operating rates drop to their lowest point of the year, especially in the electric bicycle battery segment [2][3]. - Dealers are adopting a "light inventory" strategy, leading to an increase in social inventory of lead ingots, while emerging sectors like automotive replacement and communication storage are not providing enough support to offset the overall decline in traditional consumption [2][4]. Industry Chain - The entire lead industry chain is under pressure, with upstream supply tightness, midstream smelting enterprises (especially secondary lead) facing losses due to low prices and high costs, and downstream battery companies being cautious in raw material procurement due to high finished goods inventory and weak orders [3][4]. - Inventory pressure is transmitting from downstream to upstream, resulting in reduced activity in trade circulation and a prevalent wait-and-see sentiment among investors [3][4]. Spot Trading - The sharp decline in the futures market has quickly affected the spot market, leading to a cooling trading atmosphere [4][5]. - Traders are eager to sell, but prices are generally declining, resulting in an increase in low-priced sources while high-priced sources remain unsold, reflecting a general lack of market confidence [4][5]. Price Trend Prediction - In the short term, lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern due to the resonance of macroeconomic negativity and industry weakness [5][6]. - As downstream companies begin to take holidays, demand is unlikely to improve, with prices expected to fluctuate around the cost line of secondary lead, lacking rebound momentum [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing downward pressure due to multiple macroeconomic factors, including a rebound in the US dollar and seasonal liquidity tightening ahead of the Spring Festival, which has led to a lack of upward momentum in lead prices [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - Domestic environmental policies are tightening, increasing compliance production costs and providing a solid bottom support for prices [1]. - Winter mining restrictions and difficulties in recycling waste batteries have led to a tight supply of both primary and recycled lead, constraining overall production [1]. - Although social inventories have slightly accumulated, their absolute levels remain low, exerting weak pressure on prices [1]. Demand Side Summary - Pre-holiday demand is cooling, with downstream companies adopting a "just-in-time purchasing" strategy, leading to a lack of trading activity in the spot market [2]. - The automotive starter battery sector maintains steady demand, but the electric bicycle battery market continues to be sluggish [2]. - Short-term rebound potential for lead prices is limited due to the traditional off-season for demand and cautious market sentiment [2]. Market Outlook - In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain under pressure, with potential for technical rebounds dependent on a decline in the US dollar or unexpected increases in pre-holiday stocking [2]. - In the medium to long term, clear bottom support for lead prices is anticipated due to rising industry costs from domestic solid waste policies and tight supply of recycled lead materials [2]. - Key variables influencing lead price fluctuations include the US Federal Reserve's policy direction, the movement of the US dollar, and the recovery pace of downstream demand post-holiday [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the lead market is experiencing a supply contraction due to both policy and seasonal factors, which is supporting prices [2] - Recent data on US durable goods orders exceeded expectations, indicating resilience in economic demand, which has led to a reduction in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The lead price has shown a slight increase but is expected to stabilize due to cautious market sentiment and adjustments in trading rules [1] Group 2 - The supply side of the lead market is facing rigid contraction, primarily due to stricter environmental regulations and seasonal production halts, which have limited overall capacity release [2] - Despite a seasonal slowdown in downstream operations, there is immediate support in the spot market due to concentrated stocking by distributors ahead of the holiday [2] - The current strong pricing is not driven by speculative trading but is based on rigid supply, cost support, and optimistic expectations for post-holiday demand [3] Group 3 - The spot market is experiencing reduced trading activity as the holiday approaches, with logistics slowing down, yet prices remain strong due to firm holding intentions from suppliers [3] - Short-term forecasts suggest that futures prices will be influenced more by macro sentiment and expectations for post-holiday demand, with a tendency for strong fluctuations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a strong rebound driven by macroeconomic policies, monetary environment, and industrial logic, with significant support from supply constraints and demand resilience ahead of the Chinese New Year [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The global macroeconomic landscape is characterized by a "loose East and weak West" pattern, with the People's Bank of China signaling clear easing through MLF excess renewals, and domestic manufacturing PMI data showing signs of demand resilience [1]. - The weakening US dollar index has reached a new low, enhancing the global purchasing power and financial attractiveness of non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply is constrained by environmental regulations, maintenance, and raw material shortages, providing rigid support for prices [2]. - Demand is bolstered by policies such as the extension of the vehicle purchase tax and trade-in incentives, along with pre-holiday stocking needs, demonstrating core resilience [2]. Group 3: Market Predictions - The lead market is expected to maintain a strong oscillation within the range of 17,000 to 17,500 yuan per ton, supported by macroeconomic easing signals, rigid supply constraints, and pre-holiday demand [3]. - The current trading behavior is primarily driven by downstream purchasing needs, while the acceptance of high prices by downstream enterprises may limit upward price movement [3].