1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand but slow destocking. The loss of secondary lead production leads to a lower - than - expected resumption of production, which supports the lead price. However, before the delivery of the SHFE lead 2603 contract next week, inventory transfer and delivery by holders will bring pressure on the increase of visible inventory. The lead price is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend, operating in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs can conduct corresponding buying or selling hedging operations based on this range [4] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 10, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - $47.74/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,500 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 10, 2026, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,710 yuan/ton and closed at 16,650 yuan/ton, a change of - 90 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,530 lots, a change of - 8,841 lots compared with the previous trading day. The holding volume was 58,157 lots, a change of 2,265 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,750 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,650 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,605 yuan/ton and closed at 16,665 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decline from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price fell by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures fluctuated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in trading, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. The lead price continued to weaken, downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stockpiling at low prices was poor, and the spot market was generally weak [2] Inventory - On March 10, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 74,000 tons, a change of 6,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 10, the LME lead inventory was 284,875 tons, a change of - 1,025 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand but slow inventory reduction. The losses in the secondary lead sector leading to lower - than - expected resumption of production support the lead price. However, before the delivery of the SHFE lead 2603 contract next week, the inventory transfer and delivery by holders will bring pressure on the increase of visible inventory. The lead price is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, trading in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs can conduct corresponding buying or selling hedging operations based on this range [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 9, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$42.91/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to -35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries changed by 25 yuan/ton to 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 9, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,780 yuan/ton and closed at 16,740 yuan/ton, a change of -35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 55,371 lots, a change of 16,108 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 55,892 lots, a change of -1,783 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 16,815 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,655 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,710 yuan/ton and closed at 16,720 yuan/ton, a 0.21% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM 1 lead price in the Shanghai market was reported at 16,680 - 16,790 yuan/ton, with a discount of 100 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2604 contract. After the SHFE lead price hit a low and rebounded, holders quoted prices according to the market. As the delivery approached, the circulating supply in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions increased. The ex - factory supply of electrolytic lead refineries was mostly sold at a discount, and some holders had large differences in selling. The mainstream origin quotes were at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead. The circulating supply in the secondary lead market was limited, and refineries sold at a firm price. The secondary refined lead quotes were at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to a premium of 25 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. At the same time, the quotes for imported crude lead increased, downstream enterprises were more wait - and - see, and the purchases were relatively scattered, with no obvious improvement in the spot market transactions [2] Inventory - On March 9, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 74,000 tons, a change of 6,500 tons from the same period last week. As of March 10, the LME lead inventory was 284,875 tons, a change of -1,025 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The lead price is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, trading in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs can conduct corresponding buying or selling hedging operations based on this range [4] Options - The option strategy is to sell wide straddles [5]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a downward trend due to both internal and external pressures, with prices reflecting a cautious sentiment ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 16,700 yuan per ton, down 55 yuan or 0.33% [1]. - The latest London lead price is reported at 1,976 USD, down 8 USD [1]. - The average price for 1 lead in the Changjiang market is 16,690 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lead market is characterized by a simultaneous weakening of supply and demand, typical of pre-holiday conditions [3]. - Supply remains stable with both primary and recycled lead production operating at high levels, leading to ample market supply [3]. - Demand is declining as downstream battery manufacturers enter holiday mode, resulting in a seasonal drop in consumption [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Outlook - The market is shifting from optimistic expectations of liquidity easing to a re-evaluation of the reality of prolonged high interest rates [2]. - Investors are adopting a cautious stance, with a focus on avoiding risks associated with external market fluctuations during the holiday [3]. - Key variables to monitor post-holiday include overseas macroeconomic policies, global risk asset sentiment, and actual inventory accumulation levels [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - The lead futures market saw a rise, closing at $1994.50 per ton, up $17 or 0.86%, with trading volume at 5034 lots and open interest at 175914 lots [1] - The strong U.S. employment data has delayed the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut from June to July, reinforcing the expectation that rate cuts are merely postponed rather than canceled [1] - The overall macroeconomic environment is shifting towards a "expectation correction" phase, highlighting structural opportunities in the market, particularly in AI computing hardware and upstream resource metals like nickel, tin, and copper [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As the Spring Festival approaches, the lead market is experiencing a dual decline in supply and demand, with domestic smelters reducing production and lead-acid battery companies completing their stockpiling [2] - The overall supply and demand are decreasing, but low inventory levels are supporting prices [2] - The lead industry chain is showing significant seasonal characteristics, with upstream lead concentrate supply tightening and downstream battery companies having high finished product inventories [3] Group 3: Industry Performance - Leading companies in the lead industry are focusing on steady production and cost control, with an increase in the proportion of recycled lead contributing to cost advantages [4] - The performance of these companies is expected to remain resilient due to the upward shift in metal prices, with no large-scale expansion plans for 2026 [4] Group 4: Trading Activity - The domestic lead spot market is experiencing low trading activity, with traders mostly holding inventory and only engaging in minimal essential purchases [5] - The market atmosphere is described as "having price but no market," indicating a slowdown in transactions as logistics approach a halt [5] Group 5: Market Strategy - It is recommended to adopt a light position and observe the market before the Spring Festival, with expectations of a recovery in industrial metal demand post-holiday due to resumption of operations and growth policies [6] - Short-term lead prices are expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, balancing macroeconomic benefits with weak seasonal demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a significant price increase driven by strong macroeconomic factors and marginal support from the industry, with expectations of improved demand due to domestic investment policies and a favorable global pricing environment [1][2]. Supply Side - The lead supply is currently contracting, with a general decrease in the operating rates of primary and recycled lead enterprises due to the upcoming Spring Festival and regular maintenance schedules [1]. - Despite low processing fees for imported lead concentrates indicating tight raw material availability, smelters are slowing production as pre-holiday stockpiling has been largely completed, leading to a temporary accumulation of raw material inventories [1]. Demand and Inventory - Downstream demand is experiencing seasonal weakness, particularly in lead-acid battery enterprises, which are reducing operations as the Spring Festival approaches [2]. - However, optimistic expectations for post-holiday demand, driven by domestic investment policies, are providing key emotional support for the market [2]. - Both domestic and international lead ingot inventories remain at low levels, effectively buffering the impact of short-term supply and demand weaknesses on prices [2]. Market Trading and Industry Chain - The market is entering a typical pre-holiday quiet period, with limited transactions and a focus on risk control rather than proactive production increases [2]. - The overall trading environment is characterized by a lack of activity, with macroeconomic sentiment and capital movements becoming the primary factors influencing short-term pricing [2]. Leading Enterprises Insight - Representative companies in the industry are showing stable growth amid cyclical recovery, with high-value-added businesses like precious metal recycling becoming core profit drivers [2]. - Future strategies are focused on expanding recycled lead capacity and entering high-purity metals and advanced materials sectors, although challenges such as cash flow pressure and sensitivity to lead price fluctuations remain [2]. Pre-Holiday Market Outlook - The lead price is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival, supported by macroeconomic benefits and tight inventory levels [3]. - However, due to stagnant physical trading and reduced market liquidity, price movements may be amplified by capital market sentiment [3]. Post-Holiday Layout Outlook - After the Spring Festival, the non-ferrous metal sector is anticipated to present significant layout opportunities, with a focus on the transmission and validation of macro policies to real demand [4]. - Key factors for the lead market will include the recovery intensity of downstream battery enterprises and whether demand in infrastructure sectors materializes as expected [4]. - Investors are advised to focus on two main lines: traditional cyclical leaders benefiting from industry recovery and pioneers in resource recycling and high-purity new materials with long-term growth potential [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the lead market is experiencing a weak balance between supply and demand, with domestic lead ingot and smelter inventories accumulating, which suppresses lead prices, while overseas inventory reduction provides slight support [1][2] - The supply side shows that the processing fees for lead concentrate are at low levels, and the price of recycled batteries remains strong, pushing up smelting costs. However, domestic lead ingot social inventories have reached a two-month high, creating pressure that offsets the benefits of supply reduction [1][2] - Demand is characterized by a decline in domestic lead-acid battery production and low procurement volumes as pre-holiday demand wanes. Although overseas demand shows slight recovery, it is insufficient to counterbalance the core weakness in the market [1][2] Group 2 - The industry chain reflects a dual weakness in supply and demand, with the core feature being the differentiation in inventories between domestic and international markets. Both upstream and downstream are contracting, leading to a suppression of lead prices domestically, while overseas inventory reduction provides slight traction [2] - Leading companies, such as Yuguang Gold Lead, are expected to see steady growth in performance by the end of 2025, with increased lead production capacity and ongoing overseas resource development and technology research [2] - The spot trading environment is characterized by a pre-holiday effect, with light trading and stable discounts. The primary lead spot prices follow narrow fluctuations in futures, and after the end of downstream demand replenishment, procurement has ceased, further suppressing trading activity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is under pressure due to a combination of external and internal negative factors, leading to a bearish outlook for lead prices in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight lead futures in London closed at $1970.5 per ton, down $24.5, or 1.23%, with a trading volume of 10,723 contracts and an open interest of 170,925 contracts [1]. - The current lead price is expected to continue a weak oscillation pattern, with overall performance leaning towards weakness and difficulty in achieving a significant rebound [1]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar and the hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve are suppressing the valuations of industrial metals, including lead, while causing funds to flow out of the non-ferrous metal sector [2]. - The industry is experiencing a "double weakness" in supply and demand; although supply is contracting due to refinery maintenance and production cuts, the demand side is weak, particularly in the lead-acid battery sector, which is facing high finished goods inventory and sluggish sales [2]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - In the short term, lead prices are expected to face downward pressure, likely fluctuating around the cost line of recycled lead, with a need for two signals to confirm a substantial market turnaround: post-Spring Festival recovery in downstream production and a clear correction in macro policy expectations [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach in the short term to avoid blind bottom-fishing, while mid-term strategies should focus on monitoring the recovery pace and inventory replenishment in the downstream sector after the holiday [4].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a downward trend due to a combination of external macroeconomic factors and internal supply-demand dynamics, leading to significant price declines in both futures and spot markets [1][2]. Supply Side - Seasonal reductions in lead production due to winter adjustments in northern mines and maintenance at smelting plants are being overshadowed by high inventory levels, which have reached a two-month high, exerting downward pressure on prices [2]. - The cost structure is showing divergence; while processing fees for imported lead concentrate remain low, increasing smelting costs are pushing some recycled lead producers into losses, prompting early production cuts [2]. Demand Side - The lead consumption is heavily reliant on the battery industry, which is currently underperforming due to declining demand for electric bicycles and weaker export orders for automotive batteries [2]. - High finished goods inventory levels at battery manufacturers have led to a significant drop in production and procurement willingness, with the anticipated pre-holiday stockpiling failing to materialize [2]. Spot Market and Short-term Outlook - The spot market is experiencing extremely low trading activity, with sellers lowering prices due to futures declines and financial pressures, while buyers show little purchasing interest, resulting in a "price without market" scenario [2]. - In the short term, lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend, influenced by macroeconomic pressures and persistent supply-demand imbalances, with limited potential for significant rebounds until clear signs of order recovery and inventory reduction in the battery sector emerge [2].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and weak demand, leading to a bearish outlook for lead prices in the short term [1][5]. Supply Side - Lead supply is characterized by a "passive contraction," with primary lead smelters reducing output due to seasonal maintenance and secondary lead producers cutting back or halting production due to industry-wide losses and weak demand [1][3]. - Despite a tightening supply of lead concentrate, the overall supply reduction has not supported prices due to a more severe contraction in demand, creating an imbalance of "supply reduction with weaker demand" [1][2]. Demand Side - The core demand for lead is significantly weak, particularly in the lead-acid battery sector, which has seen operating rates drop to their lowest point of the year, especially in the electric bicycle battery segment [2][3]. - Dealers are adopting a "light inventory" strategy, leading to an increase in social inventory of lead ingots, while emerging sectors like automotive replacement and communication storage are not providing enough support to offset the overall decline in traditional consumption [2][4]. Industry Chain - The entire lead industry chain is under pressure, with upstream supply tightness, midstream smelting enterprises (especially secondary lead) facing losses due to low prices and high costs, and downstream battery companies being cautious in raw material procurement due to high finished goods inventory and weak orders [3][4]. - Inventory pressure is transmitting from downstream to upstream, resulting in reduced activity in trade circulation and a prevalent wait-and-see sentiment among investors [3][4]. Spot Trading - The sharp decline in the futures market has quickly affected the spot market, leading to a cooling trading atmosphere [4][5]. - Traders are eager to sell, but prices are generally declining, resulting in an increase in low-priced sources while high-priced sources remain unsold, reflecting a general lack of market confidence [4][5]. Price Trend Prediction - In the short term, lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern due to the resonance of macroeconomic negativity and industry weakness [5][6]. - As downstream companies begin to take holidays, demand is unlikely to improve, with prices expected to fluctuate around the cost line of secondary lead, lacking rebound momentum [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing downward pressure due to multiple macroeconomic factors, including a rebound in the US dollar and seasonal liquidity tightening ahead of the Spring Festival, which has led to a lack of upward momentum in lead prices [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - Domestic environmental policies are tightening, increasing compliance production costs and providing a solid bottom support for prices [1]. - Winter mining restrictions and difficulties in recycling waste batteries have led to a tight supply of both primary and recycled lead, constraining overall production [1]. - Although social inventories have slightly accumulated, their absolute levels remain low, exerting weak pressure on prices [1]. Demand Side Summary - Pre-holiday demand is cooling, with downstream companies adopting a "just-in-time purchasing" strategy, leading to a lack of trading activity in the spot market [2]. - The automotive starter battery sector maintains steady demand, but the electric bicycle battery market continues to be sluggish [2]. - Short-term rebound potential for lead prices is limited due to the traditional off-season for demand and cautious market sentiment [2]. Market Outlook - In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain under pressure, with potential for technical rebounds dependent on a decline in the US dollar or unexpected increases in pre-holiday stocking [2]. - In the medium to long term, clear bottom support for lead prices is anticipated due to rising industry costs from domestic solid waste policies and tight supply of recycled lead materials [2]. - Key variables influencing lead price fluctuations include the US Federal Reserve's policy direction, the movement of the US dollar, and the recovery pace of downstream demand post-holiday [2].