Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The demand for lead in the current market is mainly concentrated in the lead-acid battery sector. As the traditional consumption peak season approaches, downstream enterprises' willingness to stock up for production should theoretically strengthen, but the actual spot trading volume is average when prices rise, and the market is still in a wait-and-see state. The overall demand is still in a slow recovery stage, and the consumption increment in August is expected to be weak due to factors such as tariffs and front-loaded consumption. However, as the peak season progresses, there is a possibility of demand improvement. The inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also decreased, indicating an overall improvement in demand. Although the demand has not effectively driven inventory depletion, it is expected to gradually strengthen, providing some support for lead prices. It is recommended to go long on SHFE lead at low prices this week [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan; the 3-month LME lead quotation was 1,988 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 US dollars. The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of SHFE lead was -20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The SHFE lead open interest was 98,794 lots, an increase of 3,302 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE lead was -2,542 lots, an increase of 1,231 lots. The SHFE lead warehouse receipts were 61,784 tons, a decrease of 751 tons. The SHFE inventory was 62,334 tons, a decrease of 949 tons; the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 16,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was -70 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan; the LME lead cash - 3 - month spread was -42.01 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.28 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,154 yuan, an increase of 201 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan. The WBMS lead supply - demand balance was -18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 75.65%, a decrease of 1.84 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 33,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was -60 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons; the global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of the waste battery market was 10,112.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92.86 yuan/ton [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, a decrease of 425,000. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The Shenwan third - level industry index of batteries and other cells was 1,901.83 points, an increase of 30.7 points. The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 730,000, an increase of 166,600; the monthly output of automobiles was 2.8086 million, an increase of 166,600 [3] Industry News - The Trump administration is considering 11 candidates for the Fed Chair, and Trump said the number of candidates is down to three or four and will appoint a new Fed Chair soon. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said more evidence of inflation improvement is needed, and every meeting is a live meeting; Fed nominee Milan said there is no evidence that tariffs cause inflation. Traders have fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September. The US unadjusted CPI annual rate in July was 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month; the unadjusted core CPI annual rate rose to a five - month high of 3.1%. After the data release, traders increased their bets on a September rate cut, which is positive for the non - ferrous metals sector. Trump said Russia will face consequences if it doesn't stop the conflict and hopes to have a second meeting with Putin. European leaders urged Trump to pressure Putin to agree to a cease - fire and meet with Zelensky. If a cease - fire agreement is reached, Ukraine's European allies may consider relaxing sanctions on Russia [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will remain largely unchanged, and with anti - involution speculation, lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 16,915 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,023 dollars/ton, down 5.5 dollars. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest was 106,213 lots, down 251 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,439 lots, down 1,861 lots. Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 59,959 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory was 63,254 tons, up 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 269,325 tons, up 6,175 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,910 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 140 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 24.27 dollars/ton, up 0.94 dollars. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,096 yuan, down 124 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,760 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 33,200 tons, down 2,900 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 60 dollars/thousand tons, down 10 dollars. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,158.93 yuan/ton, up 23.22 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450,000 units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) was 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan Industry Index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 1,760.4 points, down 11.52 points. The monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 0.1666 million vehicles; the monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and the EU: imposing a 15% tariff on the EU, with 600 billion dollars of EU investment in the US, the EU implementing a 0% tariff on the US, and the EU buying US military equipment and 750 billion dollars of US energy products. However, the US and the EU have different statements on whether the 15% tariff agreement covers pharmaceuticals and steel and aluminum. Trump is considering reaching agreements with three or four other countries. The US Commerce Secretary said the August 1 tariff increase deadline will not be extended, and the US will determine the tariff policy on chips within two weeks. US officials said Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. This week is a super central bank week, and the result of the Fed's interest - rate meeting should be noted [2] 3.7 Demand and Supply Analysis - Primary lead smelters' operating rates decreased due to the decline in lead prices, leading to a decline in output. Although the current primary lead operating rate is still stronger than that of recycled lead and its by - product revenue is stable, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions. For recycled lead, due to the tight supply of waste battery raw materials, smelters lack confidence, and the overall supply is tight. The resumption of production is slow due to cost inversion. On the demand side, although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual spot trading is average, and downstream buyers are still waiting and watching. The slow destocking of distributors restrains the enthusiasm of battery factories, and the seasonal peak effect has not yet appeared. Domestic inventory is rising slightly, and the increase in warehouse receipts reflects the slowdown in overall demand [2]