1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation of the lead industry is weak, with both smelting finished - product inventory and social inventory rising. The expectation of the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman on January 30th triggered a retreat in market sentiment, and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector are currently highly volatile. Attention should be paid to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd on the sector's sentiment [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 1.69% to 16,918 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 102,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 42 to 2,004 dollars/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 167,900 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,675 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,625 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,050 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 29th was 38,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 26th. The domestic primary basis was - 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 275 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 207,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 20,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 47.72 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 130.1 dollars/ton. - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.218, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 549.49 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 63,000 tons, the factory inventory was 493,000 tons, equivalent to 33.95 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.4%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 32,100 tons. At the recycled end, the lead waste inventory was 117,000 tons, the recycled smelting start - up rate was 51%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,400 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 69.0% [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - **Import and Production**: In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,425,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,931,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6%. In December 2025, the domestic lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 4.04% and a month - on - month change of - 7.54%. From January to December, the total lead concentrate production was 1,658,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.89%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [15][17]. - **Total Supply and Overseas Production**: In December 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 3,285,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In November 2025, the overseas lead ore production was 264,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.49% and a month - on - month change of 1.85%. From January to November, the total overseas lead ore production was 2,674,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.42% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 63,000 tons, the factory inventory was 493,000 tons, equivalent to 33.95 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 250 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.4%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 32,100 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead output was 332,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.56% and a month - on - month change of 1.56%. From January to December, the total primary lead ingot production was 3,847,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.32% [26]. 3.3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the recycled end, the lead waste inventory was 117,000 tons. The recycled smelting start - up rate was 51%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,400 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead output was 354,500 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of - 5.04%. From January to December, the total recycled lead ingot production was 3,962,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.52% [31][33]. - **Net Export and Total Supply**: In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 22.13%. In December 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of - 1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,956,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 69.0%. In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of - 0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38]. - **Battery Export**: In December 2025, the net export volume of batteries containing lead was 1,664,900 units, a year - on - year change of - 35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million units, a cumulative net export year - on - year change of - 13.06% [41]. - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle segment, the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, but the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid batteries with lithium - iron phosphate batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption due to replacement demand. In the base station segment, the rapid development of communication technology has led to an increase in the number of communication and 5G base stations, driving a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 3.5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Gap**: In December 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 4,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 12,400 tons [62]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Gap**: In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons. From January to November, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 171,400 tons [65]. 3.6. Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 29th was 38,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 26th. The domestic primary basis was - 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 275 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 207,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 20,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 47.72 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 130.1 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.218, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 549.49 yuan/ton [70][72][75]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead turned net short, the net long positions of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [78].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing downward pressure due to multiple macroeconomic factors, including a rebound in the US dollar and seasonal liquidity tightening ahead of the Spring Festival, which has led to a lack of upward momentum in lead prices [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - Domestic environmental policies are tightening, increasing compliance production costs and providing a solid bottom support for prices [1]. - Winter mining restrictions and difficulties in recycling waste batteries have led to a tight supply of both primary and recycled lead, constraining overall production [1]. - Although social inventories have slightly accumulated, their absolute levels remain low, exerting weak pressure on prices [1]. Demand Side Summary - Pre-holiday demand is cooling, with downstream companies adopting a "just-in-time purchasing" strategy, leading to a lack of trading activity in the spot market [2]. - The automotive starter battery sector maintains steady demand, but the electric bicycle battery market continues to be sluggish [2]. - Short-term rebound potential for lead prices is limited due to the traditional off-season for demand and cautious market sentiment [2]. Market Outlook - In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain under pressure, with potential for technical rebounds dependent on a decline in the US dollar or unexpected increases in pre-holiday stocking [2]. - In the medium to long term, clear bottom support for lead prices is anticipated due to rising industry costs from domestic solid waste policies and tight supply of recycled lead materials [2]. - Key variables influencing lead price fluctuations include the US Federal Reserve's policy direction, the movement of the US dollar, and the recovery pace of downstream demand post-holiday [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The demand for lead in the current market is mainly concentrated in the lead-acid battery sector. As the traditional consumption peak season approaches, downstream enterprises' willingness to stock up for production should theoretically strengthen, but the actual spot trading volume is average when prices rise, and the market is still in a wait-and-see state. The overall demand is still in a slow recovery stage, and the consumption increment in August is expected to be weak due to factors such as tariffs and front-loaded consumption. However, as the peak season progresses, there is a possibility of demand improvement. The inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also decreased, indicating an overall improvement in demand. Although the demand has not effectively driven inventory depletion, it is expected to gradually strengthen, providing some support for lead prices. It is recommended to go long on SHFE lead at low prices this week [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan; the 3-month LME lead quotation was 1,988 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 US dollars. The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of SHFE lead was -20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The SHFE lead open interest was 98,794 lots, an increase of 3,302 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE lead was -2,542 lots, an increase of 1,231 lots. The SHFE lead warehouse receipts were 61,784 tons, a decrease of 751 tons. The SHFE inventory was 62,334 tons, a decrease of 949 tons; the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 16,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was -70 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan; the LME lead cash - 3 - month spread was -42.01 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.28 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,154 yuan, an increase of 201 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan. The WBMS lead supply - demand balance was -18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 75.65%, a decrease of 1.84 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 33,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was -60 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons; the global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of the waste battery market was 10,112.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92.86 yuan/ton [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, a decrease of 425,000. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The Shenwan third - level industry index of batteries and other cells was 1,901.83 points, an increase of 30.7 points. The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 730,000, an increase of 166,600; the monthly output of automobiles was 2.8086 million, an increase of 166,600 [3] Industry News - The Trump administration is considering 11 candidates for the Fed Chair, and Trump said the number of candidates is down to three or four and will appoint a new Fed Chair soon. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said more evidence of inflation improvement is needed, and every meeting is a live meeting; Fed nominee Milan said there is no evidence that tariffs cause inflation. Traders have fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September. The US unadjusted CPI annual rate in July was 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month; the unadjusted core CPI annual rate rose to a five - month high of 3.1%. After the data release, traders increased their bets on a September rate cut, which is positive for the non - ferrous metals sector. Trump said Russia will face consequences if it doesn't stop the conflict and hopes to have a second meeting with Putin. European leaders urged Trump to pressure Putin to agree to a cease - fire and meet with Zelensky. If a cease - fire agreement is reached, Ukraine's European allies may consider relaxing sanctions on Russia [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will remain largely unchanged, and with anti - involution speculation, lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 16,915 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,023 dollars/ton, down 5.5 dollars. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest was 106,213 lots, down 251 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,439 lots, down 1,861 lots. Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 59,959 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory was 63,254 tons, up 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 269,325 tons, up 6,175 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,910 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 140 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 24.27 dollars/ton, up 0.94 dollars. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,096 yuan, down 124 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,760 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 33,200 tons, down 2,900 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 60 dollars/thousand tons, down 10 dollars. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,158.93 yuan/ton, up 23.22 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450,000 units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) was 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan Industry Index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 1,760.4 points, down 11.52 points. The monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 0.1666 million vehicles; the monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and the EU: imposing a 15% tariff on the EU, with 600 billion dollars of EU investment in the US, the EU implementing a 0% tariff on the US, and the EU buying US military equipment and 750 billion dollars of US energy products. However, the US and the EU have different statements on whether the 15% tariff agreement covers pharmaceuticals and steel and aluminum. Trump is considering reaching agreements with three or four other countries. The US Commerce Secretary said the August 1 tariff increase deadline will not be extended, and the US will determine the tariff policy on chips within two weeks. US officials said Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. This week is a super central bank week, and the result of the Fed's interest - rate meeting should be noted [2] 3.7 Demand and Supply Analysis - Primary lead smelters' operating rates decreased due to the decline in lead prices, leading to a decline in output. Although the current primary lead operating rate is still stronger than that of recycled lead and its by - product revenue is stable, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions. For recycled lead, due to the tight supply of waste battery raw materials, smelters lack confidence, and the overall supply is tight. The resumption of production is slow due to cost inversion. On the demand side, although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual spot trading is average, and downstream buyers are still waiting and watching. The slow destocking of distributors restrains the enthusiasm of battery factories, and the seasonal peak effect has not yet appeared. Domestic inventory is rising slightly, and the increase in warehouse receipts reflects the slowdown in overall demand [2]