周一，美国国债收益率普遍上涨，两年期收益率升4个基点至3.728%，10年期收益率微升1.3个基点至 4.271%，收益率曲线趋平至54个基点。 这一变化源于交易员对美联储政策的揣摩，以及本周财政部标售中短期国债的预期。在美国劳动节假期 （9月1日）前，交易可能相对清淡，但收益率上升通常会提升持有生息资产的吸引力，对黄金形成竞争 压力。 股市方面，周一华尔街三大指数集体收跌，标普500指数下跌0.43%至6439.32点，纳斯达克指数跌0.22% 至21449.29点，道指重挫0.77%至45282.47点。这是对上周五强劲反弹的修正，当时鲍威尔讲话推动道 指创历史新高，但投资者现转为观望模式，关注英伟达周三的财报作为人工智能热潮的检验。股市回调 往往增强黄金的避险角色，但当前环境下，必需消费品和医疗保健板块的领跌反映出经济放缓担忧，这 可能间接支撑黄金的中期反弹。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 摘要今日周二（8月26日）亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于3386.27美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新 报3376.48美元/盎司，涨幅0.32%，最高上探3386.27美元/盎司，最低触及3350.89美元/盎司。目前来 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee indicated that despite some recent inflation data being better than expected, there are dangerous signals, and he hopes this is only a temporary phenomenon [2] - Goolsbee noted that the latest inflation report shows an increase in service sector inflation, which may not be driven by tariffs [2] - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that current policy measures have been undermined by rising inflation and are expected to be eliminated, with a detailed policy statement anticipated at the upcoming annual meeting [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The UK Treasury announced sanctions against Iran's Shamkhani company, which supports hostile activities against the UK and its allies [4] - Following the sanctions, reports emerged of the US imposing sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran, leading to a rise in oil prices [4] - Geopolitical tensions are heightened as US naval patrols in the Caribbean may serve as a military deterrent against oil-producing nations like Venezuela [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - In the gold market, the price is maintaining a bullish trend with support at $3,330 and resistance at $3,355 [2] - For oil, the price is fluctuating between $61.80 and $64.50, with support at $62.80 and resistance at $64.50 [5] - The Nasdaq index is experiencing a downward trend with support around $23,050 and a focus on closing above $23,400 for the week [7] - The US Dollar Index is in an upward trend, with a focus on closing above $98.40 for the week [8]

作为2025年联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的轮值票委，古尔斯比强调，美联储在9月的政策会议前仍 需审慎评估更多数据。"在我看来，9月的会议像是一场实时的会议（live meeting），"他表示，"我们不 能仅凭一份报告就做出判断。我们需要确认通胀是否真正回归下行轨道。" 近期公布的美国7月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，远超预期，其中服务成本是主要推手。同 时，密歇根大学消费者信心调查显示，短期和长期通胀预期均有所回升，加剧了市场对通胀粘性的担 忧。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月22日电芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）表示，尽管近期部分通胀 数据呈现缓和迹象，但服务业价格的意外飙升构成"危险信号"，他希望这一现象只是暂时的，而非通胀 反弹的前兆。 "上一份通胀报告显示，服务业通胀确实开始飙升，环比涨幅达到1.1%，这是自2022年3月以来的最大 增幅，"古尔斯比在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会前夕发表讲话称，"虽然目前尚不确定这一上涨是否由关税 或其他外部因素直接推动，但这是一个危险的数据点。我希望这只是一次性的小插曲，而不是趋势的逆 转。" ...

8月21日（周四）早盘，市场避险情绪再度升温，金价触底反弹。黄金ETF基金（159937）上涨0.46%。 盘中换手率0.33%，成交金额9444万。拉长时间看，黄金ETF基金（159937）今年以来涨幅24.81%。 | 画线 46 MA60: 6.215 | 除权 窗 区 信息 删自选 喇 | | | 黄金ETF基金 159937 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8.010 | | 8.130 | | 7. 391 +0.034 | 40.462% | | | | 7.866 | 型比 | -13.09% | -6356 | | | | | 5 | 7.396 | 1524 | | | | | 4 | 7.395 | 3665 | | | | | 3 | 7.394 | 4978 | | | | | 盘2 | 7.393 | 7188 | | | | 7.335 | 1 | 7.392 | 10104 | | | | | 1 | 7.391 | 101 | | | | 7.068 | 2 1 | 7.390 | 14150 | | | | | 3 | ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Dynamics - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% on May 8, 2025, signaling a potential future rate cut despite a 0.9% month-on-month increase in the PPI for July, which exceeded market expectations [1][3] - The July PPI reached its highest level since June 2022, indicating ongoing supply chain cost pressures, while non-farm employment growth was only 73,000, suggesting signs of a cooling labor market [3] - The dovish signals from the Federal Reserve have led to a rebound in global stock markets, but a weakening dollar may exacerbate capital flow pressures in emerging markets [3] Group 2: Trump's Criticism of the Federal Reserve - On August 19, 2025, Trump criticized Powell for maintaining high interest rates, claiming it harms the housing industry, and called for his resignation while suggesting a replacement [7] - Trump advocated for significant rate cuts, proposing a reduction of 300 basis points to stimulate the real estate market and economic growth, contrasting with the Fed's cautious approach to inflation [7] - Trump's scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's budget, particularly the renovation costs exceeding $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, has raised questions about its management transparency [7] Group 3: European Central Bank Warnings - ECB President Lagarde indicated that U.S. tariffs on European goods could reduce Eurozone GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points in the first year, with potential retaliatory measures from the EU increasing the impact to 0.5 percentage points [10][12] - The tariffs are expected to directly affect Eurozone manufacturing exports and temporarily raise inflation by about 0.5 percentage points, while long-term growth may be suppressed [12] - The Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 is only 0.9%, with core inflation remaining low at 0.9%, limiting the ability to respond to imported inflation through interest rate hikes [12] Group 4: Interconnections and Global Impact - The conflict between Trump's rate cut demands and the Fed's data-dependent strategy increases policy uncertainty, affecting global confidence in dollar assets [15] - U.S. tariff policies are dragging down Eurozone growth through trade channels, creating a "lose-lose" situation as retaliatory measures raise import costs [15] - Emerging markets are compelled to raise interest rates to combat imported inflation, while the Eurozone faces a "low growth-low inflation" trap, limiting monetary policy options [15]

当地时间周二，国际金价下跌，跌至两周多来最低水平。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于 每盎司3358.7美元，跌幅为0.57%。 国内部分品牌金饰克价跌至979元/克 记者注意到，国内部分品牌金饰克价跌至979元/克。截至发稿，周六福足金999价格为979元/克，足金 999.9为989元/克；周生生足金饰品价格为999元/克；老庙、周大福均为1002/克。 | 今日黄金最新价格 | | 单位:元/克 更新时间:08-20 | | --- | --- | --- | | 門** 周大福 | 周六福 | 膜 周生生 | | 1002.00 | 979.00 | 999.00 | | 金条价格 992.00 | 金条价格 874.00 | 金条价格 884.00 | | 周大生 | ■ 潮宏基 | ー 六福珠宝 | | 1002.00 | 1002.00 | 1002.00 | | 铂金价格 541.00 | 铂金价格 541.00 | 金条价格 992.00 | | 的 老凤祥 | 命 老庙黄金 | (= 中国黄金 | | 1000.00 | 997.00 | 771.80 | | 足金价格 1000. ...

当地时间8月20日，美股科技股全线重挫，纳指一度大跌近2%，跌破21000点，为8月7日以来首次；芯片股集体跳水，费城半导体指数一度暴跌超3%，英 伟达一度大跌近4%；其他大型科技股亦全线下挫。另外，华尔街"恐慌指数"VIX一度飙升超10%。 截至发稿，道琼斯指数跌0.11%，标普500指数跌0.55%，纳斯达克综合指数跌1.08%。 据券商中国，当前，华尔街的期权交易员对美股科技股暴跌的担忧日益加剧，正在大举抢购看跌期权对冲风险。 大型科技股普跌，截至发稿，苹果跌1.54%，特斯拉跌2.68%，亚马逊跌1.97%，脸书跌1.24%，谷歌跌1.16%，英伟达跌1.54%，微软跌0.77%。 | IF | 现价 | 涨跌幅▼ | | --- | --- | --- | | 微软(MICROSOFT) US MSFT | 505.840 | -0.77% | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-A | | | | US GOOGL | 199.230 | -1.16% | | 脸书(META PLATFC | 742.163 | -1.24% | | US META | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 172. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments significantly impact HSBC Holdings' stock performance, with 2025's interest rate stability and hints of future rate cuts leading to notable stock price volatility due to geopolitical risks and fiscal expansion pressures [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, with only two rate cuts planned for 2025, totaling 50 basis points, which is below market expectations of four cuts [1] - Market expectations regarding the Fed's rate cut timing have fluctuated, causing stock price volatility; for instance, after the July 30 Fed meeting, the probability of a September rate cut dropped from 65% to 30%, resulting in a 2.3% drop in HSBC's Hong Kong stock [1] Group 2: Currency Fluctuations - The Fed's policies influence HSBC's cross-border business through the dollar exchange rate, impacting the company's operations and profitability [1] Group 3: Capital Flows - Adjustments in Fed policy lead to a global reallocation of capital, affecting HSBC's funding and investment strategies [1] Group 4: Credit Risk - The Fed's policies contribute to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which in turn affects the credit quality of HSBC's loan assets [1] Group 5: Market Expectations - Uncertainty in the Fed's policy path amplifies valuation volatility for HSBC, with analysts revising profit expectations downwards; for example, the 2025 net profit forecast was reduced from $14.5 billion to $12.4 billion, a decline of 14.5% [1] Group 6: Asset and Liability Management - In HSBC's Americas business, loan pricing is linked to Fed rates, limiting the upside for new loan yields while only 35% of existing loans are floating rate, restricting benefits from rising rates [2] - The cost of deposits in the U.S. has risen to 2.1%, a 40 basis point increase from 2024, significantly higher than the 1.3% in Asia, further compressing net interest margins [2] - By Q2 2025, the net interest margin for HSBC's North American business narrowed to 2.8%, a year-on-year decline of 15 basis points [2] Group 7: Foreign Exchange Losses - In Q2 2025, the strong dollar led to exchange losses of $1.2 billion in HSBC's cross-border trade financing, accounting for 19% of the quarter's pre-tax profit [3] - To mitigate currency risk, HSBC increased its dollar hedging positions, resulting in a 25% year-on-year increase in derivative trading volume and an additional $300 million in trading costs [3] Group 8: Emerging Market Dynamics - The issuance of $1 trillion in U.S. debt under the "Big and Beautiful" act has raised U.S. Treasury yields, exacerbating capital outflow pressures from emerging markets, with HSBC's loan growth in Latin America slowing from 12% in 2024 to 5% in the first half of 2025 [3] - Conversely, the Fed's rate cut expectations have driven global capital back to Asia, with HSBC's wealth management business in Asia seeing net inflows of $23 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase, partially offsetting declines in the Americas [3] Group 9: Credit Quality Concerns - HSBC has increased provisions for U.S. commercial real estate loans by $1.9 billion in Q2 2025, a 90% year-on-year increase, reflecting rising default rates [3] - Despite low unemployment, the credit card loan default rate rose from 2.1% in 2024 to 2.7% in Q2 2025, with HSBC's U.S. credit card business non-performing loan rate increasing to 3.2% [3] Group 10: Valuation Compression - HSBC's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) decreased from 12.8 times at the beginning of 2025 to 9.3 times by the end of July, below the average of 10.5 times for Asian peers, indicating market concerns over its U.S. business profitability [4] Conclusion - The dynamic interplay between the Federal Reserve's policies and HSBC's stock price is influenced by multiple channels, including interest rates, currency fluctuations, capital flows, and credit risks, leading to increased stock price volatility amid geopolitical risks and fiscal pressures [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting (August 21-23) is highly anticipated, with the Federal Reserve's latest policy signals potentially acting as a key catalyst for gold price movements [1] - The market is currently experiencing cautious consolidation at high levels due to heightened uncertainty from the Russia-Ukraine situation and comments from Trump regarding tariffs [1] - The focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 17, with a recent economist survey on August 15 indicating ongoing market divergence in interpreting Fed policies [1] Group 2: Gold Price Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a slight breakdown in the daily chart, with short-term trends focusing on support around 3310 [3] - A descending wedge pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart, suggesting potential bullish breakout risks, but is currently constrained by the 100-period simple moving average at $3346.98 [3] - Key resistance is identified at $3370, with a breakthrough potentially leading to targets of $3400 and the early August high of $3410; however, a drop below $3330 could direct prices towards $3300 and possibly test the August low of $3282 [3] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - From a technical perspective, silver is hovering above the neckline of a bearish double top pattern in the $38.50-$39.00 range, indicating a loss of upward momentum [5] - A decisive drop below the support level of $37.50 could open the door for further declines to $36.50 or even $35.50 [5] - The silver market opened at $38.024, experienced fluctuations, and closed at $37.377, forming a large bearish candle, with short-term trading strategies focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds [5]

Group 1 - International precious metals market experienced a decline, with silver dropping nearly 2% [1] - As of the close on August 19, 2025 December gold futures fell by $19.1, settling at $3358.9 per ounce, a decrease of 0.57% [1] - The market is cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, leading to a short-term adjustment in precious metal positions [1][2] Group 2 - The US dollar index rose by 0.1%, closing at 98.265, which negatively impacted the precious metals market [2] - The annual Jackson Hole global central bank conference is approaching, with market participants keenly awaiting Powell's policy signals [2] - UBS raised its gold price target for March 2026 by $100 to $3600 per ounce, citing ongoing macroeconomic risks in the US and strong investment demand [2] Group 3 - September silver futures closed down by $0.735, settling at $37.330 per ounce, a decline of 1.93% [3] - December silver futures also fell by $0.74, closing at $37.820 per ounce, a decrease of 1.92% [3]