1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical conflicts have disturbed the macro - mainline, putting pressure on gold and silver [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Second Part: Market Review and Prospect - The report presents the disk trends of London gold, London silver, Shanghai gold, and Shanghai silver, with their units being US dollars per ounce, US dollars per ounce, yuan per gram, and yuan per kilogram respectively [12][14] 3.2 Third Part: Macroeconomic Factors - It shows the Turkish central bank's announcement and the US dollar/Turkish lira trend, along with data on official reserve assets in millions of US dollars [21] - The FedWatch data before and after the war (February 27th and March 27th, 2026) are presented, including the conditional meeting probabilities of different interest - rate ranges in various Fed meetings from 2026 to 2027 [26][27] - Information on the average number of new non - farm and ADP employment in the US in March, as well as the structure of new non - farm employment, is provided [31] - The report also shows the US CPI and PPI data [32] 3.3 Fourth Part: Fundamental Factors - Gold supply - demand balance data from 2014 to 2025 are presented, including supply components such as total supply, recycling, and industrial use, and demand components such as jewelry, investment, and central bank purchases. There are also data on the year - on - year changes in 2024 and 2025 [39] - The flow changes of gold ETFs in different regions and the global gold ETF holdings are shown [40] - The inventory data of silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London LBMA market, and US Comex market are presented, along with the total inventory of four exchanges and the domestic silver premium/discount (against silver T + D) [47][50][51] - The export and import situations of silver in China are shown, including the export and import volumes of unforged silver with a purity of ≥99.99% from 2023 to 2026 [54][56] - The total global silver ETF holdings, the holdings of leading silver ETFs, and the silver lease rate are presented [59][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile rebound. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.28%, Shanghai Silver up 2.80%, platinum up 2.66%, and palladium up 0.61%. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, volatile at a low level in the medium - term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1] - In the short - term, there are risks of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level. The risk of the Iran war expanding is rising, and the Middle East crisis may become long - term. The US import prices in February had the largest increase in four years, suggesting that future inflation may accelerate. The Fed will maintain the interest rate this month, indicating high uncertainty in the policy outlook due to the Iran war. The probability of an interest - rate hike within the year has increased, and the bet on interest - rate cuts has been postponed to 2027 [1] - The Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the risk of a global recession, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2] - **Price Data**: Comex gold active contract closed at $4521.30 per ounce, up 3.30% from the previous day; London gold was at $4504.15 per ounce, up 1.07%. Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 1014.88 yuan per gram, up 1.62% [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold positions were 403,925 lots, down 2.42% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold main contract positions were 180,953 lots, up 7.02% from the previous day. LBMA gold inventory was 9,210 tons, up 0.56% [2] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [4] - **Price Data**: Comex silver active contract closed at $69.77 per ounce, up 2.41% from the previous day; London silver was at $67.80 per ounce, up 0.75%. Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 17,707 yuan per kilogram, up 1.25% [4] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver positions were 113,164 lots, down 1.39% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver main contract positions were 3,508,275 lots, up 3.63% from the previous day. The total visible inventory was 37,948 tons, down 0.33% [4] Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - losses/take - profits are necessary [6] - **Price Data**: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2113.20 per ounce, up 4.38% from the previous day; London platinum was at $2118 per ounce, up 1.97%. Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 552.70 yuan per gram, up 3.73% [7] - **Position and Inventory**: NYMEX platinum active contract positions were 34,868 lots, down 6.76% from the previous day. NYMEX platinum total inventory was 19 tons, unchanged [7] Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - losses/take - profits are required [8] - **Price Data**: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up 3.81% from the previous day; London palladium was at $1601 per ounce, down 3.04%. Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 407.75 yuan per gram, up 2.31% [8] - **Position and Inventory**: NYMEX palladium active contract positions were 14,847 lots, up 0.89% from the previous day. NYMEX palladium total inventory was 8 tons, up 22.15% [8] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary Attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%. The Fed's total assets are 6,708.36 billion US dollars. The M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.88% [9] - **Inflation in the US**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.83%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 3.06% [9] - **US Economic Growth**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate is 2.10%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate is 0.70%. The unemployment rate is 4.40% [9] - **US Labor Market**: The monthly change in non - farm employment is - 92,000, the labor participation rate is 61.90%, and the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.80% [9] - **US Real Estate Market**: Existing home sales are 4.09 million units, new home sales are 480,000 units, and new home starts are 1.043 million units [9] - **US Consumption**: Retail sales year - on - year growth rate is 2.08%, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate is 5.25%, and the personal savings as a proportion of disposable income is 4.50% [11] - **US Industry**: The industrial production index year - on - year growth rate is 1.44%, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.29% [11] - **US Trade**: Exports year - on - year growth rate is 9.68%, imports year - on - year growth rate is - 26.33%, and the trade balance is - 54.5 billion US dollars [11] - **US Economic Surveys**: ISM manufacturing PMI index is 52.40, ISM services PMI index is 56.10, Markit manufacturing PMI index is 52.40, and Markit services PMI index is 51.10 [11] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves are 2,308.50 tons, the US's are 8,133.46 tons, and the world's are 36,458.24 tons [11] - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves Proportion**: The US dollar accounts for 56.32%, the euro accounts for 21.13%, and the RMB accounts for 2.12% [11] - **Geopolitical and Market Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index is 335.15, the VIX index is 31.05, the CRB commodity index is 368.91, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9184 [11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the federal funds rate remaining in the 350 - 375 range is relatively high in the near - term, but the probability of a rate cut gradually increases over time [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold and silver, the continuous conflict in the Middle East has kept crude oil prices high, leading to an increase in the market's inflation expectations for the US. Meanwhile, the inhibitory effect of high oil prices on the economy is gradually emerging. The Federal Reserve maintained its policy in March, and the market expects less than one interest rate cut this year. The US dollar index is running strongly, and gold and silver may continue to be under pressure for adjustment. As the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut changes, gold and silver may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the regression of the gold - silver ratio [4]. - For platinum and palladium, there is limited short - term fundamental data. In the medium term, platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, while palladium is in a relatively surplus pattern. In addition, the guidance of the gold price should be noted in the medium term. This week, they may follow the weak trend of the gold price, and the platinum - palladium ratio may continue to strengthen [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: From March 20 to March 27, 2026, the prices of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium in various markets generally declined. For example, the price of London gold dropped from $4562.55 per ounce to $4504.15 per ounce, and the price of London silver dropped from $72.37 per ounce to $67.795 per ounce [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 340,747 ounces, COMEX silver inventory decreased by 4,397,891 ounces, NYMEX platinum inventory decreased by 25,033 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged [8]. - **Market News**: The US adjusted its sanctions policy on Venezuela's key mineral sector, allowing certain investment and operation activities. From January to February 2026, China's silver ingot exports increased by 9.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 707.7% year - on - year. China's silver concentrate imports decreased slightly by 1.2% year - on - year. Turkey's gold reserves decreased significantly in two consecutive weeks. The gold - platinum ratio has reached about 2.4, attracting investors to turn to platinum. Russia will restrict gold exports from May 1, and some central banks may increase their gold purchases in 2026 [10][11]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Spot Basis**: Analyze the spot basis of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, with data from Wind [13][16]. - **Ratio**: Analyze the relevant ratios, but specific content is not detailed in the text [19]. - **Market Positions**: Analyze the market positions of gold and silver, as well as overseas market positions, with data from Wind [21][24]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: Analyze the futures warehouse receipts of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, with data from Wind [25][28]. - **ETF Positions**: Analyze the ETF positions of gold and silver, with data from Wind [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2, the precious metals market will remain in a fierce game between macro - expectations and geopolitical risks, with high - volatility characteristics hard to fade quickly. The core drivers focus on two main lines: the Fed's policy path and the trend of US Treasury yields, and the evolution of the US - Iran situation and the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. The market is likely to continue a wide - range shock pattern [3][98]. - Gold's macro - suppression is the short - term dominant factor, but geopolitical risks have not subsided. Gold's core position as the ultimate safe - haven asset remains stable, and the correction can be regarded as a medium - to - long - term allocation window. Silver will fluctuate more violently, and it is difficult to participate. Platinum shows relative resilience, while palladium will continue to lag due to its weak fundamentals [4][101]. - In operation, it is recommended to prioritize risk control and take a long - term perspective. Gold can be used as a strategic bottom - position and gradually deployed on dips. For silver and platinum - group metals, only extremely light - position short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended, and heavy - position chasing up or killing down should be avoided [5][101]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market Review - In Q1 2026, the precious metals market experienced extreme fluctuations from a historic surge to a cliff - like flash crash and then to a continuous deep adjustment. The market's driving logic switched among geopolitical risks, policy expectations, and macro - suppression, with significant differentiation among varieties [7]. - From January to mid - February, geopolitical and policy expectations resonated, leading to a historic surge in precious metals. However, on January 30, the market reversed due to changes in policy expectations, and precious metals crashed. In February, the market entered a high - level shock consolidation phase [8]. - From late February to March, geopolitical conflicts and macro - suppression alternately dominated, and precious metals entered a deep adjustment. Platinum and palladium showed different performances in the macro - suppression, with platinum showing relative resistance and palladium falling more significantly [9][10]. - In late March, the market entered a stage of repeated news and low - level shocks, with precious metals showing different degrees of fluctuations [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis 3.2.1 Geopolitical Risks - In Q1, global geopolitical situations deteriorated. Different from the traditional "conflict means safe - haven" logic, precious metals did not rise with oil prices but fell after the conflict escalated. Geopolitical risks are reshaping the precious metals' valuation system through the "inflation transmission" path [31]. - Currently, the Middle - East conflict is deadlocked, and geopolitical risks have not subsided. Its impact on precious metals has shifted from direct safe - haven driving to indirect transmission through "inflation expectations - macro - policies - US dollar valuation." In the short term, high oil prices and tight macro - expectations suppress precious metals, but the market's over - pessimistic pricing of the Fed's interest - rate hikes may be corrected [32]. 3.2.2 Monetary Policy - The Fed's March interest - rate meeting kept the federal funds rate unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. However, the Fed is facing unprecedented uncertainties. The meeting signaled that inflation prevention is the top priority, and the space for interest - rate cuts this year has narrowed [33][34]. - Powell admitted the difficulty of predicting the future and policy modeling due to geopolitical conflicts. He also refuted the "stagflation" narrative to maintain the discourse power of economic narratives. His stance on staying in office provides short - term stability but leaves medium - to - long - term uncertainties [36][37]. 3.2.3 Inflation - In February 2026, the US CPI performance was "average." The market's focus has shifted to how oil prices will push up inflation after March and how the Fed will balance the "stagflation" risk. The 2026 interest - rate cut expectation has been revised down to "at most once" [43]. 3.2.4 Economic Growth - In February, the US manufacturing PMI expansion slowed down, with input prices soaring to a four - year high. The service PMI jumped unexpectedly, with new orders and backlogs surging. The employment data in February was unexpectedly negative, strengthening the market's concern about the cooling labor market. In the long - term, the weak employment and high inflation situation intensifies the market's concern about "stagflation" [46][47][49]. 3.2.5 US Treasury Yields and the US Dollar Index - In Q1, the US Treasury market fluctuated violently due to geopolitical conflicts. The yields of two - year, five - year, and ten - year US Treasuries rose significantly. The US dollar index strengthened in Q1, directly suppressing precious metals [57][59]. 3.3 Precious Metals Supply - demand Analysis 3.3.1 Gold - In Q4 2025, the global gold market was strong, with total demand and gold prices hitting record highs. Investment demand was the core driver. Supply increased slightly, while investment demand grew explosively. The demand structure was significantly differentiated, with high gold prices suppressing physical gold jewelry consumption but increasing the demand value [61][62]. 3.3.2 Silver - In 2025, the global silver market is expected to show a "moderate decline in total demand but significant structural differentiation" feature. Industrial demand remains strong, and there is a continuous supply - demand gap, providing medium - to - long - term support for silver prices [67]. 3.3.3 Platinum - In 2025, the platinum market was in a supply shortage for the third consecutive year, and the gap widened. In 2026, the shortage pattern is expected to continue, and the fundamental support has been significantly enhanced [71][74]. 3.3.4 Palladium - The palladium market presents a complex pattern of "short - term shortage and long - term structural pressure." In the short term, the supply is tight, but in the long term, the demand for palladium in fuel - vehicle catalysts may decline due to the global automotive electrification transformation [77]. 3.4 Position, Inventory, and Seasonal Analysis 3.4.1 Gold ETF Holdings - In February 2026, global gold ETFs continued to see strong inflows, with the total holdings reaching a new high. Different regions showed different trends, with North America leading the inflow, Europe having outflows, and Asia and other regions having inflows. Gold and silver ETF flows indicate that the bullish sentiment has converged [80][81][83]. 3.4.2 CFTC Positions - As of the week of March 17, 2026, the non - commercial net long positions of gold and silver futures decreased, indicating a decline in the bullish sentiment. The non - commercial net long positions of platinum futures decreased slightly, while those of palladium futures increased [87]. 3.4.3 Inventory Analysis - As of March 25, 2026, the COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased significantly, the SHFE gold inventory reached a new high, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased. The NYMEX platinum inventory decreased, and the NYMEX palladium inventory increased [92]. 3.5 Outlook and Operation Suggestions - In Q2, the precious metals market will be in a game between macro - expectations and geopolitical risks, likely to continue a wide - range shock pattern. Gold can be considered for medium - to - long - term allocation on dips. Silver and platinum - group metals are highly volatile, and only light - position short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended [98][101].

Group 1 - Jobless claims rose to 210,000 for the week ending March 21st, indicating low volatility without significant changes in the labor market [1] - Continuing claims decreased to 1,819,000 from 1,851,002, suggesting stability in employment [1] - The OECD predicts a 4.2% inflation rate for the US this year, indicating potential inflationary pressures [2] Group 2 - The rising oil prices and strengthening dollar may negatively impact global economies, leading to demand destruction and lower growth in the US [4] - The labor market is not as tight as previously thought, with a significant population loss due to immigration crackdowns affecting employer needs [6] - Economic performance remains relatively strong, but there are concerns about potential slowdowns if OECD forecasts materialize [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the TACO landed this week, the short - term conflict risk in the Middle East has not dissipated, but there is a possibility of situation downgrade in the medium - term. The current game pattern of fighting and talking has limited the upper limit of the full - scale escalation of the conflict, and the ground war is still in a vague state. The extreme pressure situation will continue in the short - term. The secondary inflation risk brought by the oil price shock is reversing the global liquidity expectation. The Fed's policy path has shifted from the initial interest - rate cut convergence to tightening divergence. The domestic A - shares are in the risk - release stage of peripheral risk transmission in the short - term, and the core investment strategy should be defensive counter - attack [2]. - In the short - term, the RMB exchange rate is expected to follow the US dollar index for synchronous fluctuations, and there is no clear directional trend. Export enterprises can lock in forward foreign exchange settlement in batches at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.85 mark [3]. - The short - term trend of the stock index is expected to be volatile, and the trading power of treasury bonds is insufficient. For the shipping index (European line) futures, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short - term [5][6][10]. - For new energy products, lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are also in a wide - range fluctuation state [13][15]. - In the aluminum market, the core contradiction lies in the game between the "overseas supply contraction expectation" and the "domestic high - inventory reality". Copper's pressure level has moved up, zinc is mainly volatile, nickel - stainless steel is strong, tin's trend conversion is uncertain, and lead's overall trend is consistent with the sector [20][23][25][27][28][29]. - For oilseeds, hold the reverse spread between months. For oils and fats, the short - term trend is weak following the crude oil, and attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiation [30][31]. - For energy and oil and gas, it is too early to trade the end of the conflict in the short - term. For fuel oil, wait patiently for short - selling opportunities, and for asphalt, wait for short - selling opportunities at the absolute price [35][36][38]. - For precious metals, maintain a strategic long - term bullish view, and regard the callback as an opportunity for medium - and long - term long - position layout [42][44]. - For pulp - offset paper, pulp can be traded in the range or wait and see in the short - term, and offset printing paper can try the high - short strategy. For pure benzene - styrene, they are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term. For LPG, it is in a neutral and volatile state, and the positive spread strategy can be adopted at low prices. For PP - propylene and plastics, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. For rubber, synthetic rubber may maintain a strong and wide - range fluctuation, and natural rubber is expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [46][48][51][54][56][62][63]. - For glass and soda ash, soda ash supply pressure persists, and glass is restricted by supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory [66][67]. - For black products, the short - term furnace charge is strong and volatile, driving the rebound of steel prices, but the rebound height is limited. Iron ore is event - driven, coking coal follows the energy expectation, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support [70][71][73][74]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, sell the call options of the main hog contract, cotton runs in the range, sugar is expected to be volatile in the short - term, sell the call options of the main egg contract, apples are in high - level adjustment, peanuts can be lightly short - sold, red dates are in a low - level volatile bottom - building state, and logs can be traded in the range [76][78][80][82][89][91][94][96]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The pricing of the global central bank's tightening transaction is approaching saturation. The short - term conflict risk in the Middle East has not dissipated, and the secondary inflation risk brought by the oil price shock is reversing the global liquidity expectation [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate follows the US dollar index for synchronous fluctuations. Export enterprises can lock in forward foreign exchange settlement in batches at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.85 mark [3]. - **Stock Index**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and it is difficult to form a trend - like rise [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The trading power is insufficient, and the short - term grid operation idea can be maintained [6]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short - term, and the market focus is shifting from geopolitical risk premium to supply - demand fundamentals [7][8][9][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the long - term value support from the industry fundamentals is still stable [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in a wide - range fluctuation state, and the core contradiction is the imbalance between supply and demand [14][15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The core contradiction lies in the game between the "overseas supply contraction expectation" and the "domestic high - inventory reality", and the internal and external markets show a differentiated and volatile pattern [17][18][19][20]. - **Copper**: The pressure level has moved up, and investors can consider selling options to protect existing positions [21][23]. - **Zinc**: It is mainly volatile, and interval operation can be tried [24][25]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The intraday trend is strong, and the new Indonesian policy may support the price [26][27]. - **Tin**: The trend conversion is uncertain, and it should be regarded as volatile in the short - term [28]. - **Lead**: The overall trend is consistent with the sector, and it is mainly volatile with interval operation [29]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: Hold the reverse spread between months. Pay attention to the Brazilian shipment and port clearance progress [30]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend is weak following the crude oil, and attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiation [31]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: It is too early to trade the end of the conflict in the short - term, as there are differences in the conditions between the US and Iran [33][34][35]. - **Fuel Oil**: Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities, and the medium - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia is still in a tight - balance state [36]. - **Asphalt**: The cracking may be strong, and wait for short - selling opportunities at the absolute price. Pay attention to position control [38]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are in a weak and volatile state. Maintain a strategic long - term bullish view and pay attention to position control [40][41][42]. - **Gold & Silver**: They maintain a volatile state. Maintain a strategic long - term bullish view, and the short - term rebound may be limited [43][44]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp can be traded in the range or wait and see in the short - term, and offset printing paper can try the high - short strategy [46]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: They are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the supply reduction caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [47][48]. - **LPG**: It is in a neutral and volatile state, and the positive spread strategy can be adopted at low prices. Pay attention to the US - Iran negotiation and the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz [49][50][51]. - **PP - Propylene**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the short - term supply reduction provides fundamental support [52][53][54]. - **Plastics**: It is in a short - term weak and volatile state, and the short - term supply is expected to remain at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. - **Rubber**: Synthetic rubber may maintain a strong and wide - range fluctuation, and natural rubber is expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment. Different strategies can be adopted for different types of rubber [57][62][63][64]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash supply pressure persists, and glass is restricted by supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory [65][66][67]. Black Products - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The short - term furnace charge is strong and volatile, driving the rebound of steel prices, but the rebound height is limited [68][69][70]. - **Iron Ore**: It is event - driven, with a "near - strong and far - weak" fundamental characteristic [71]. - **Coking Coal**: It follows the energy supply expectation and fluctuates widely, and its price is difficult to rise independently from the fundamentals [72][73]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They have cost support, and attention should be paid to the impact of the hurricane on the manganese ore production area [73][74]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The price is in a low - level volatile state, and sell the call options of the main contract [76]. - **Cotton**: It runs in the range. Pay attention to the USDA's new - year planting intention report and the downstream demand [77][78]. - **Sugar**: It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, considering the geopolitical situation and market sentiment [79][80]. - **Eggs**: The price is in a wide - range volatile state, and sell the call options of the main contract [81][82]. - **Apples**: They are in high - level adjustment, and the 05 contract is strongly supported in the short - term [89][90]. - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to continue to correct, and light short - selling can be considered [91][92][93]. - **Red Dates**: They are in a low - level volatile bottom - building state, and the price is under pressure due to the loose supply and demand [94]. - **Logs**: The price of 3 - meter timber has risen, and the futures price has bottom support. It can be traded in the range [95][96].

Short-Term Market Outlook - The market sentiment has shifted positively in the short term due to a reduction in negative positioning related to the Iran conflict [1][2] - Any alleviation of risks surrounding the conflict is expected to be viewed favorably, as seen in recent market movements [2] Intermediate-Term Considerations - The intermediate-term outlook remains uncertain, with ongoing concerns about oil prices and their implications for rates and currency [2][6] - The S&P 500 has declined approximately 5% since the onset of the conflict, indicating a need for further analysis before determining a market bottom [3][4] Volatility and Market Behavior - There has not been a significant spike in volatility or trading volume that typically indicates a market flush, suggesting a more gradual adjustment to news [3] - The current decline is within the typical corrective range of 5-10%, but caution is advised as market conditions can change rapidly [4][5] Oil Prices and Economic Impact - Monitoring of oil futures is critical, as sustained high oil prices could complicate the broader economic outlook, which was initially based on a soft landing scenario [5][6] - The persistence of high oil prices may challenge the assumptions underlying investment strategies focused on sectors outside of mega-cap tech [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical situations, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals. Different sectors show various trends, with some in short - term adjustment, some in long - term upward potential, and others in high - level volatility or decline. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: There may be a technical rebound due to the easing signal of the Middle - East situation, but the sustainability is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, there is no trend turning point, and it is mainly in short - term adjustment. [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The funds are stable, and purchases by banks and insurance institutions provide support. Yields rise, and after the rise, there is value for layout. It shows a short - term rebound following the fluctuation of risky assets. [2] Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The SCFIS European line index continues to rise due to the game between geopolitical sentiment and off - season fundamentals. The market is in high - level wide - range oscillation, with near - month contracts affected by news and far - month contracts pricing long - term conflict expectations. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The Fed's delayed rate - cut rhythm and Middle - East easing expectations put pressure on prices. Weak - dollar logic and South African supply disturbances support prices. It is in short - term weak - side oscillation and has medium - to - long - term upward potential. [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Trump's easing remarks cause a V - shaped reversal. Geopolitical conflicts and interest - rate hike expectations are the core trading logics. It lacks short - term upward drivers and maintains low - level oscillation. [5] - **Copper**: The expectation of US - Iran easing drives a rebound. Domestic social inventory decreases significantly, and downstream purchasing supports prices. The probability of a sharp rise is small, and attention should be paid to volume - price matching and upper pressure levels. [5] - **Aluminum**: The cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectation and lack of new Middle - East production - cut news lead to weak - side oscillation. Supply shortages may cause price increases, and overseas fundamentals provide some resistance to decline. [6] - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity decreases, and the oversupply situation narrows. Overseas, geopolitical impacts and rising shipping costs bring a balance between cost support and supply pressure, with prices in oscillation. [6] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum, and has strong lower - side support due to raw material shortages and tax - refund policies. [7] - **Zinc**: Supply - side pressure is released, and demand is delayed with high inventory. Zinc prices face upward pressure and remain weak. [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Fed's hawkish stance and US - Iran conflicts suppress prices. Uncertainty in sulfur supply and slow quota approval in Indonesia affect the industry. Stainless - steel price decline is limited, and demand release rhythm needs attention. [8] - **Tin**: Supply has a buffer, and demand starts to resume. Inventory is high, but the spot market shows warming. It is in weak - side oscillation with no obvious bullish turning point. [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is loose, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is jointly led by supply - demand fundamentals and capital sentiment, with prices in oscillation. [9] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is in a supply - demand double - weak situation. Global energy transformation is an irreversible trend, and it is at the bottom of the production - capacity cycle. [10][11] - **Lead**: Supply - side pressure is obvious, and demand recovers slowly. Lead prices are expected to oscillate and gradually stop falling. [11] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Rising oil prices drive up coking coal, and tight iron - ore inventory and rising freight provide cost support. High inventory and high warehouse receipts limit the upward space, and the short - term rebound height is limited. [12] - **Iron Ore**: The market is a mix of long and short factors. It shows a "near - strong, far - weak" feature, with prices supported by cost and tight spot supply but suppressed by medium - to - long - term demand and supply increase expectations. [13] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The rise is driven by expectations, but the fundamentals are insufficient. Domestic production increases, and inventory is close to the same - period level. The price increase may trigger delivery risks. [14] - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Manganese - ore prices are firm, and the lower - side cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening. Attention should be paid to the impact of hurricanes on mining areas. [14] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's easing signal causes a sharp drop in oil prices, but the conflict may still escalate. Geopolitical progress is the only core driver, and short - term volatility increases. [15] - **Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is dragged by weak downstream demand, and high - sulfur fuel oil is slightly supported. The market's strength eases, and the price decline space is limited. [15] - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances lead to short - term price increases in crude oil, which is the core factor overriding asphalt's own fundamentals. [16][17] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Fluctuations in crude oil due to US - Iran news cause large - scale adjustments in chemicals. Short - term oscillation is on the strong side, and attention should be paid to the duration of the Strait closure and supply reduction. [17] - **LPG**: Futures prices rise due to capital, showing an internal - strong, external - weak and futures - strong, spot - weak pattern. It is expected to return to fundamentals and oscillate at a high level, with a risk of回调. [18] - **Methanol**: Geopolitical games are the core logic. Supply - interruption concerns push up prices. The pricing logic changes, and port inventory decreases. The inter - month spread follows the US - Iran situation. [18] - **PP and Propylene**: Supply - side refinery maintenance and open export windows support the supply - demand situation. Geopolitical easing will reduce risk premiums, but supply reduction provides support. [19] - **Plastic**: Middle - East conflicts lead to supply reduction. Downstream resistance to high prices and demand feedback are obvious. The price has toughness, and short - term volatility increases. [20] - **Rubber**: Geopolitical news causes large fluctuations in synthetic rubber and small fluctuations in natural rubber. Cost support is strengthened, and inventory is reduced. Medium - to - long - term supply - demand supports valuation. [20] - **Soda Ash**: Supply pressure is high, and demand is stable but weak. Inventory is better than expected. The price increase space is limited, and the downward space depends on inventory accumulation. [21] - **Glass**: Cold - repair expectations continue, and medium - level inventory is a risk. Supply return expectations and high inventory limit the price increase, and demand needs verification. [22] - **Caustic Soda**: Supply pressure eases due to domestic and overseas device disturbances. Demand improves, but inventory is relatively high. Futures prices oscillate. [23][24] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The supply - demand situation is loose, with high supply and weak demand. Futures prices are under pressure and lack upward drivers. [25] - **Oilseeds**: The delay of Sino - US negotiations and short - term supply factors affect the market. The medium - term large - supply logic remains unchanged, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal is being repaired. [25] - **Oils**: Crude - oil price changes are the main factor affecting the oil market. Attention should be paid to the progress of bio - fuel policies in Indonesia and the US. [26] - **Cotton**: Geopolitical conflicts and increased supply lead to a decline in Zhengzhou cotton, but low downstream inventory and good consumption provide support. Attention should be paid to US cotton exports. [26] - **Sugar**: The expected reduction in Brazilian sugar production and geopolitical tensions affect the market. The supply - demand situation is stable, and prices oscillate. [27] - **Eggs**: Supply shortages in some areas and cost support lead to a rebound in futures prices. The supply - demand situation remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited. [27] - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on demand, and downstream sales are weak. Prices are under pressure and may oscillate at a low level. [27]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran relations, on market performance, with major indices in both A-shares and Hong Kong experiencing substantial declines [1][8][12] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with officials indicating that future decisions will depend on the evolving situation in the Middle East [8][12] - Chinese platform companies, including Ctrip and JD.com, have been summoned for discussions regarding "involution" competition issues, indicating regulatory scrutiny in the tech sector [8][12] Market Performance - A-shares saw a sharp decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 3.63% to 3813.28 points, and the Shenzhen Component down 3.76% [1][5] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 3.54% to 24382.47 points, with the Hang Seng Technology Index down 3.28% [1][5] - The trading volume in the Hong Kong market was approximately 368.77 billion HKD [1] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced a five-day delay in military action against Iran's energy infrastructure, suggesting potential negotiations with Tehran, although Iran denied any dialogue [8][12] - The U.S. Federal Reserve officials expressed that it is premature to alter the expectation of four interest rate cuts this year, emphasizing the need for more information before making policy changes [8][12] Regulatory Environment - The Beijing Municipal Market Supervision Administration has conducted talks with 12 platform companies, addressing issues related to competitive practices and requiring corrective actions [8][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating that substantial progress in inflation is needed before further rate cuts can be considered [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Reaction - U.S. Treasury yields have surged, with the 2-year yield exceeding 3.8%, the highest since August of the previous year, while the 5-year yield approached 3.9%, and the 10-year yield neared 4.3% [1][3]. - The sell-off in U.S. Treasuries is attributed to the Federal Reserve's policy signals, with heightened volatility exacerbated by uncertainties from the Middle East conflict, which may increase inflation and economic downturn pressures [1][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, citing steady economic expansion and stable employment growth, while acknowledging the unclear impact of geopolitical factors on the U.S. economy [3][5]. - Powell emphasized that no rate cuts would occur until there is clear improvement in inflation, and he noted that rising tariffs and oil prices are contributing to inflationary pressures [3][5]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated a 0.7% month-over-month increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for February 2026, with a year-over-year rise of 3.4%, marking the largest increase in a year [7]. - Powell's remarks about inflation being at relatively high levels, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rising 3.0%, have intensified market concerns regarding the persistence of inflation [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve's incorporation of geopolitical conflicts into its policy framework and the elevation of the threshold for rate cuts indicate a cautious approach to high rates [8]. - It is anticipated that the Fed will adopt a data-watching stance in the first half of the year, with potential rate cuts opening up in the second half as inflationary pressures ease and economic growth faces downward risks [8].