Group 1 - The 2025 Capital Market Forum hosted by CITIC Securities in Shanghai focuses on the theme "Forging Ahead into a New Era" [1] - Chief Macro and Policy Analyst Yang Fan delivered a keynote speech titled "Sharpening the Blade to Settle the Storm" [1] Group 2 - Yang Fan highlighted that during periods of uncertainty, such as "Trump 1.0" and the pandemic, private sector investment and consumption activities tend to slow down, leading to structural growth differentiation due to varying government deficit expansion strategies [3] - In the current "Trump 2.0" period, private sector investment is expected to contract, while fiscal policies in most economies will actively expand to counterbalance this contraction [3] - The U.S. is facing "cost-push inflation," which is eroding consumer purchasing power and weakening domestic employment and consumption, posing risks of reduced external demand for other countries [3] Group 3 - In terms of geopolitical environment, the short-term outlook indicates a temporary easing of the China-U.S. tariff war, with August being a potential key turning point in the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry [3] - Long-term trade conflicts may lead to profound restructuring of the global industrial landscape, with the foundations supporting the dollar system showing signs of weakening, potentially extending the trend of global asset "rebalancing" [3] Group 4 - Domestically, there are expectations of short-term "transshipment" and "export grabbing" to support the resilience of foreign trade this year, but tariffs will exert significant pressure on the Producer Price Index (PPI) [4] - The current domestic economic cycle faces two major bottlenecks: the lack of a "catch-up" recovery in consumer spending post-pandemic and the need for more policies to enhance consumer willingness and provide quality consumption supply [4] - There is a tendency for similar investment characteristics among local industries, exacerbating structural contradictions; thus, optimizing local government actions and focusing on industrial upgrading and structural adjustments is essential [4] - To address global uncertainties, China needs to strengthen its internal capabilities and adopt a bottom-line thinking approach to navigate the "14th Five-Year Plan" and continuously improve the direction of long-term economic reforms [4]