Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a profit attributable to equity holders of approximately RMB 1 million to 3 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to approximately RMB 15.03 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The decrease in profit is primarily due to uncertainties in trade policies and weak domestic consumption, leading to intensified competition in the paper and paper products packaging industry [1] - Although the sales volume of the paper segment increased by over 10% year-on-year, the sales prices of both raw paper products and paper packaging products fell significantly by over 8% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The price of major raw material, waste paper, increased by approximately 4% year-on-year, contributing to a decline in overall gross margin by about 5% compared to the previous year [1] - The company has implemented management optimization and strict cost control measures, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in period expenses of approximately 2% [1] - The net profit margin only decreased by approximately 1.3% year-on-year, aided by revenue from the sale of old renovation properties in the paper division [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhengye International (03363.HK) expects a significant decline in profit attributable to equity holders, projecting earnings between RMB 1.0 million and RMB 3.0 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to RMB 15.03 million in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The decrease in profit is primarily attributed to uncertainties in trade policies and weak domestic consumption, leading to intensified competition in the paper and paper products packaging industry [1] - Although the sales volume in the paper segment increased by over 10% year-on-year, the sales prices for both raw paper products and paper packaging products fell by more than 8% compared to the previous year [1] - The price of major raw material, waste paper, rose by approximately 4% year-on-year, contributing to a decline in overall gross margin by about 5% compared to the same period last year [1] Cost Management - In response to operational challenges, the company has enhanced management optimization and strictly controlled various cost expenditures, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in period expenses of approximately 2% [1] - The paper division's sales from the renovation of old materials generated additional income, leading to a smaller decline in net profit margin of only about 1.3% compared to the previous year [1]

Group 1 - The 2025 Capital Market Forum hosted by CITIC Securities in Shanghai focuses on the theme "Forging Ahead into a New Era" [1] - Chief Macro and Policy Analyst Yang Fan delivered a keynote speech titled "Sharpening the Blade to Settle the Storm" [1] Group 2 - Yang Fan highlighted that during periods of uncertainty, such as "Trump 1.0" and the pandemic, private sector investment and consumption activities tend to slow down, leading to structural growth differentiation due to varying government deficit expansion strategies [3] - In the current "Trump 2.0" period, private sector investment is expected to contract, while fiscal policies in most economies will actively expand to counterbalance this contraction [3] - The U.S. is facing "cost-push inflation," which is eroding consumer purchasing power and weakening domestic employment and consumption, posing risks of reduced external demand for other countries [3] Group 3 - In terms of geopolitical environment, the short-term outlook indicates a temporary easing of the China-U.S. tariff war, with August being a potential key turning point in the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry [3] - Long-term trade conflicts may lead to profound restructuring of the global industrial landscape, with the foundations supporting the dollar system showing signs of weakening, potentially extending the trend of global asset "rebalancing" [3] Group 4 - Domestically, there are expectations of short-term "transshipment" and "export grabbing" to support the resilience of foreign trade this year, but tariffs will exert significant pressure on the Producer Price Index (PPI) [4] - The current domestic economic cycle faces two major bottlenecks: the lack of a "catch-up" recovery in consumer spending post-pandemic and the need for more policies to enhance consumer willingness and provide quality consumption supply [4] - There is a tendency for similar investment characteristics among local industries, exacerbating structural contradictions; thus, optimizing local government actions and focusing on industrial upgrading and structural adjustments is essential [4] - To address global uncertainties, China needs to strengthen its internal capabilities and adopt a bottom-line thinking approach to navigate the "14th Five-Year Plan" and continuously improve the direction of long-term economic reforms [4]