产业链价格变化

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价格全方位多维跟踪体系(2025.08)反内卷语境看价格结构性修复
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-25 11:05
Core Insights - The report highlights a structural price recovery in the context of anti-involution, with significant price variations across different sectors, indicating a phase of "structural recovery + inter-industry differentiation" [1][2][3] Price Tracking of Key Production Materials - As of early August 2025, among 49 major products, 19 saw price increases, 28 experienced declines, and 2 remained stable. The price increases were primarily in upstream coal (e.g., anthracite, coke), midstream agriculture (e.g., soybean meal, natural rubber), and downstream chemicals (e.g., sulfuric acid, methanol) [1] - Year-on-year data shows that industrial products are still in a downward trend, but the rate of decline is stabilizing. Steel and some chemical products have begun to recover, while coal, coke, traditional building materials, and certain petrochemical products remain at low levels [1][2] Price Changes Across Industry Chains - Recent data indicates that upstream industries are generally weak, with coal prices declining by 6% to 7%. Oil prices (WTI, Brent) have seen double-digit declines, while natural gas prices, despite being high year-on-year (28%), have significantly narrowed in growth [2] - Midstream industries show signs of recovery, with the bulk commodity index and shipping index rebounding, while downstream industries remain weak, particularly in real estate and traditional Chinese medicine [2][3] Industry Price Sentiment Data - The report analyzes price changes across the supply chain, revealing that upstream resource prices are generally weak but differentiated, with copper, aluminum, and precious metals benefiting, while the oil and coal sectors remain under pressure [3] - The midstream bulk commodity index has rebounded, and the price decline of rebar has narrowed to near stability. However, the building materials sector continues to face significant negative pressure [3]