生产资料价格跟踪

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反内卷跟踪,上游价格稳中偏强 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-10-09 03:11
中国银河近日发布价格全方位多维跟踪体系:截至2025年9月中旬,49种主要生产资料 中共有21种价格上涨、25种下降、3种基本持平。上涨品种集中在上游煤炭(无烟煤、普通 混煤、大同混煤等)、中游有色金属(铜、铝、铅、锌)以及部分化工(甲醇、PVC、石油 苯等)和农林产品(大豆、花生、天然橡胶、瓦楞纸等),显示供需改善及季节性需求支 撑。 以下为研究报告摘要: 核心观点 流通领域重要生产资料价格跟踪 各行业价格景气数据跟踪 从价格看,9月产业链继续分化:9月产业链价格分化:上游设备、电气机械、新能源、 信息技术、汽车等来料上涨明显,化工、有色阶段性走强带动中游成本上行;产出端新能 源、高端装备等提价占比回升但不及来料,纺织、化纤橡塑、非金属建材仍偏弱;服务端交 通运输、批零、信息服务提价广泛,地产与基建链条同步回升。利润上,新能源、高端装备 等具备传导能力行业扩张;化纤橡塑、非金属建材等毛利受压;地产基建处于修复。整体传 导向中下游扩散,制造与服务利润弹性较强,传统中游承压。 风险提示:海外地缘冲突加剧;海外央行货币政策的不确定性(国信证券 王开,陈凯 畅) 【责任编辑:杨梓安 】 从绝对水平来看:截至2025 ...
价格全方位多维跟踪体系(2025.08)反内卷语境看价格结构性修复
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-25 11:05
Core Insights - The report highlights a structural price recovery in the context of anti-involution, with significant price variations across different sectors, indicating a phase of "structural recovery + inter-industry differentiation" [1][2][3] Price Tracking of Key Production Materials - As of early August 2025, among 49 major products, 19 saw price increases, 28 experienced declines, and 2 remained stable. The price increases were primarily in upstream coal (e.g., anthracite, coke), midstream agriculture (e.g., soybean meal, natural rubber), and downstream chemicals (e.g., sulfuric acid, methanol) [1] - Year-on-year data shows that industrial products are still in a downward trend, but the rate of decline is stabilizing. Steel and some chemical products have begun to recover, while coal, coke, traditional building materials, and certain petrochemical products remain at low levels [1][2] Price Changes Across Industry Chains - Recent data indicates that upstream industries are generally weak, with coal prices declining by 6% to 7%. Oil prices (WTI, Brent) have seen double-digit declines, while natural gas prices, despite being high year-on-year (28%), have significantly narrowed in growth [2] - Midstream industries show signs of recovery, with the bulk commodity index and shipping index rebounding, while downstream industries remain weak, particularly in real estate and traditional Chinese medicine [2][3] Industry Price Sentiment Data - The report analyzes price changes across the supply chain, revealing that upstream resource prices are generally weak but differentiated, with copper, aluminum, and precious metals benefiting, while the oil and coal sectors remain under pressure [3] - The midstream bulk commodity index has rebounded, and the price decline of rebar has narrowed to near stability. However, the building materials sector continues to face significant negative pressure [3]