产品健康化与高端化升级
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中炬高新(600872):内部仍处于调整期 业绩依旧承压
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-25 04:29
Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.156 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 20.01%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 384 million yuan, down 30.45% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.025 billion yuan, a decline of 22.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 121 million yuan, down 43.09% year-on-year [1] Operational Analysis - The main business remains under pressure, with inventory reduction progressing steadily. The revenue from soy sauce, chicken essence, cooking oil, and other products in Q3 was 599 million, 137 million, 89 million, and 134 million yuan respectively, showing declines of 19.2%, 24.2%, 31.6%, and 8.8% year-on-year [2] - Revenue declines were more pronounced compared to Q2, attributed to the company's efforts in optimizing distributor inventory and stabilizing prices [2] - By region, the revenue decline was relatively lower in the central and western regions, with Q3 revenue changes of -19.7% in the south, -27.3% in the east, -11.5% in the central west, and -20.3% in the north [2] - The distributor network continued to expand, with a net increase of 99 distributors in Q3, mainly concentrated in the south (+21) and north (+49) [2] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross margin improved in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2 percentage points, primarily due to lower procurement prices for raw materials like soybeans [3] - However, significant increases in advertising and marketing expenses pressured profits, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios rising by 8.07, 1.94, and 0.39 percentage points year-on-year respectively [3] - The comprehensive gross margin and net profit margin for Q3 were 39.53% and 12.01%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.71 percentage points and a decrease of 5.05 percentage points respectively [3] - The company is in a product and channel adjustment phase, focusing on health-oriented and premium product upgrades while expanding into new retail and catering channels [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the ongoing adjustment period in Q3, the company has revised down its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 26% for each year, expecting net profits of 560 million, 650 million, and 720 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -37%, +15%, and +11% [4] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 27x, 23x, and 21x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]