财务表现 近52周股价走势 | 华通证券国际 | | --- | | 研究部 | | 宏观组 | | SFC: AAK004 | | Email· research@waton.com | 海天味业（03288.HK) 海天味业：利润增长快于收入，成本控制与国际化推进 | 投资评级： | 持有 | 主要观点： | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-11-25 |  财务表现 | | | |  业务发展 | 盈利预测 预计2025年营业收入增长8.0%，营业利润增长7.81%。2025-2027 年PE对应为24.66、22.36、21.45倍。 风险提示 作者 | 百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 26,901 | 29,053 | 31,087 | 32,952 | | （+/-)% | 10.41 | 8.00 | 7.00 | 6.00 | | 营业利润 | 6,562 | 7,075 | 7,554 | 8,006 | | （+/-)% ...

近期，巴中市市场监督管理局持续组织实施市级"你点我检"食品抽检，抽取了餐饮食品；食用油、油脂及其制品；酒类；食用农产品；乳制品；饮料；冷冻 饮品；调味品；薯类和膨化食品；肉制品；糕点；豆制品；蔬菜制品；蜂产品；炒货食品及坚果制品；淀粉及淀粉制品；速冻食品；粮食加工品等18类食品 本次食品安全监督抽检情况详见附件。消费者如有异议或建议，请拨打投诉举报电话12315反映。 特此通告。 2.合格项目信息表 巴中市市场监督管理局 2025年11月22日 附件1 本次检验项目 一、粮食加工品 （一）抽检依据 GB 2760 食品安全国家标准 食品添加剂使用标准 GB 2761 食品安全国家标准 食品中真菌毒素限量 GB 2762 食品安全国家标准 食品中污染物限量 GB 5009.15 食品安全国家标准 食品中镉的测定 GB 5009.22 食品安全国家标准 食品中黄曲霉毒素B族和G族的测定 GB 5009.27 食品安全国家标准 食品中苯并（a）芘的测定 GB 5009.96 食品安全国家标准 食品中赭曲霉毒素 A的测定 GB 5009.111 食品安全国家标准 食品中脱氧雪腐镰刀菌烯醇及其乙酰化衍生物的测定 GB ...

Core Insights - The company has undergone significant reforms and strategic changes over the past few years, leading to a resurgence in its business performance after a period of difficulties [2][3] - The implementation of a brand revitalization strategy has resulted in accelerated growth in revenue and net profit, outpacing industry averages [2] Mechanism Reform - The company has adopted a "consumption + technology" dual-driven development strategy, establishing a "123456" operational management system to enhance overall operational efficiency [3] - Reforms in the talent management and distribution system focus on market principles, ensuring the right talent is matched to appropriate roles, and implementing performance-based incentives including stock ownership plans [3] Product Innovation - The company has diversified its product offerings from a previously narrow range to include various products such as monosodium glutamate, chicken essence, Matsutake essence, and soy sauce, with Matsutake essence becoming a key new product [3] - Future product launches will align with consumer demands for safety, health, and taste, particularly focusing on green and low-content products [3] Market Strategy - The company is expanding its distribution channels both online and offline, making it easier for consumers to access its products [3] - The goal is to establish a lasting brand presence rather than a temporary trend, aiming to be a trusted national brand that serves the health and culinary needs of households [4]

Core Insights - Haitan Flavor Industry experienced a slight decline of 0.13% on November 20, with a trading volume of 316 million yuan [1] - The company reported a net financing purchase of 5.43 million yuan on the same day, indicating strong investor interest despite the minor price drop [1] Financing Overview - On November 20, Haitan Flavor Industry had a financing buy-in amount of 32.21 million yuan, with a total financing balance of 1.10 billion yuan, representing 0.52% of its market capitalization [1] - The financing balance is above the 70th percentile of the past year, indicating a relatively high level of leverage [1] Short Selling Activity - On the same day, the company saw a short selling repayment of 17,500 shares and a short selling amount of 2,400 shares, totaling approximately 90,600 yuan [1] - The remaining short selling volume was 240,900 shares, with a short selling balance of 9.09 million yuan, exceeding the 90th percentile of the past year, suggesting high short interest [1] Company Profile - Haitan Flavor Industry, established on April 8, 2000, and listed on February 11, 2014, is primarily engaged in the production and sale of condiments, including soy sauce, seasoning sauces, oyster sauce, chicken essence, and vinegar [2] - The revenue composition for the company includes soy sauce (52.05%), other products (16.45%), oyster sauce (16.43%), seasoning sauces (10.68%), and miscellaneous (4.39%) [2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Haitan Flavor Industry achieved a revenue of 21.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.02% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.32 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.54% [2] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Haitan Flavor Industry has distributed a total of 32.71 billion yuan in dividends, with 13.20 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 211,200, up by 6.01% from the previous period [2] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fifth-largest shareholder, holding 149 million shares, a decrease of 46.83 million shares from the previous period [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong leadership position of Haitian Flavor Industry in the Chinese condiment market, emphasizing its robust brand barriers and significant market share in soy sauce (13.2%) and oyster sauce (40.2%) [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing health-oriented product upgrades and the integration of online and offline channels, which are reshaping the industry [1][2] - The report initiates a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 39.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.8% from the current price of HKD 32.64 [1][2] Industry Overview - The Chinese condiment industry is characterized by steady growth and low concentration, presenting opportunities for consolidation [1] - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards healthier products, which is likely to optimize product structures and expand niche markets [1][2] - The distribution network is extensive, with over 6,700 distributors ensuring stable sales across major regions in China [2] Company Performance and Projections - Haitian Flavor Industry is projected to achieve approximately 8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue from 2024 to 2027, driven by restaurant channel recovery, product innovation, and overseas expansion [2] - The company’s overseas revenue is expected to grow at a double-digit CAGR over the next three years, increasing its share of total revenue [2] - Improvements in gross margin and operating profit margin are anticipated due to declining raw material costs and efficiency enhancements, with net profit expected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% [2]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of "systematic capability under detailed capability" as a key trait for successful entrepreneurs, highlighting that this skill can be developed over time rather than being innate [1][4][6] Group 1: Systematic Capability - Systematic capability refers to the ability of a company to avoid significant shortcomings in key areas and to build organizational-level capabilities [1][4] - Founders often lack systematic capabilities, leading them to seek partners or executives to fill their knowledge gaps, especially before Series B funding [2][4] - Building a system is an irreplaceable responsibility of the CEO, as a well-constructed system allows for the retention of talent and effective operations [4][7] Group 2: Detailed Capability - Detailed capability involves the pursuit of extreme professionalism in products and services, which must be established on top of systematic capability to ensure replication and iteration [1][5] - In industries like soy sauce production, the process involves numerous intricate steps where even minor changes can significantly affect the final product [5][6] - A mature business system translates strategic intentions into executable actions, with detailed capability focusing on the precise execution of these actions [5][6] Group 3: Continuous Improvement - Details serve as the core feedback source for system iteration and optimization, allowing the system to evolve based on insights from customer feedback and operational data [6][7] - Successful entrepreneurs maintain a habit of being present and engaged, using insights from various sources to identify potential system weaknesses or opportunities [6][7] Group 4: Case Studies - The article references Huawei's evolution from a hero-based management style to a structured system that emphasizes detail-oriented management, showcasing the value of a robust management system as a core asset [7]

格隆汇11月17日｜国泰海通研报指出，海天味业2025Q1-3实现归母净利润53.22亿元，同比+10.54%；折 合Q3单季度实现归母净利润14.08亿元，同比+3.26%。新品类放量成亮点。分产品看，2025Q1-3公司酱 油/蚝油/调味酱/其他调味品收入分别同比+7.9%/5.9%/9.6%/13.4%；分区域看，东部/南部区域收入分别 同比+12.1%/12.7%，引领大盘扩容。盈利能力保持平稳。2025Q3 公司毛利率为39.63%，同比 +3.02pct，毛利率改善主要归功于大豆、白砂糖及包材等主要原材料价格的下行。成本下行带动下公司 毛利率持续改善，醋、料酒为代表的新业务持续放量驱动收入增长。参考恒顺醋业、金龙鱼及天味食品 给予公司2026年34.1XPE，下调目标价至46.04元（前值为49.08元）。维持"增持" 评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 6.02% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a total revenue of 216.28 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 53.22 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.54% increase [10]. - The introduction of new product categories has been a highlight, with revenue from soy sauce, oyster sauce, seasoning sauces, and other condiments increasing by 7.9%, 5.9%, 9.6%, and 13.4% respectively [10]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 improved to 39.63%, up by 3.02 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in prices of key raw materials such as soybeans and sugar [10]. Financial Summary - The company’s total market capitalization is 224.827 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 5,852 million shares [3]. - The net asset per share is 6.76 yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 5.7 [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.20, 1.35, and 1.51 yuan, respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 11%, 12%, and 12% [10][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 24.559 billion yuan in 2023 to 35.652 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.4% [9][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 5.627 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.860 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [9][11].

Overall Situation - Recently, the Liupanshui Market Supervision Administration conducted a food safety inspection of 307 batches, with 300 batches passing and 7 batches failing the inspection [1]. Disposal Measures - For the non-compliant products identified during the inspection, the Liupanshui Market Supervision Administration has implemented measures such as removal from shelves, recall, and investigation in accordance with the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China. A special investigation has been initiated to determine the batches, quantities, and causes of the non-compliance, along with corrective actions to mitigate food safety risks [2].

文 | 红餐网 "原本干消防工程的人，跨界酿造起了酱油，用半年时间，酿造出了第一批纯正的'老酱油'，一上市就受到了追 捧，最贵的卖到近百元一瓶……" 前不久，一则"青岛大哥用古法酿造酱油走红"的信息在互联网上广泛传播，让"酱油"这个品类再次成为了大众关 注的焦点。 了解酱油的业内人都知道，今年年初，酱油遭遇严重的信任危机。13款宣称"零添加"的酱油中，有12款被检出重 金属，由此引发公众对"零添加"酱油的质疑，那些看似透明的配料表都成了谜团，"零添加"风波也愈演愈烈。最 后直接导致国家层面出手，要求从2027年3月起，"零添加"等宣传语被彻底禁用。 一边是高毛利，盈利空间大；另一边则是酱油品牌被质疑，产品遭遇舆论危机。酱油市场的水，到底有多深？ 卖楼的干不过卖酱油的 时间拨回到2019年，当年9月，房产巨头万科的媒体交流会上，有记者提问当时的万科董事会主席郁亮，如何看待 海天味业市值追上万科，郁亮回答："我们特别服气，卖楼的干不过卖酱油的。" 这并不是一句玩笑调侃，而是酱油这门生意的真实写照。 仅仅一年后，海天市值突破6500亿，差不多是万科市值的两倍。 回到2025年，凭借1000亿元的财富，"酱油巨富"庞 ...