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阜丰集团(00546):25H1净利预增,成本端改善助力
HTSC· 2025-07-22 10:56
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.74 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 67%, driven by increased sales volume and reduced raw material costs [1][2] - The outlook for amino acids and MSG is expected to improve, and the company's overseas expansion is anticipated to contribute additional growth [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is 1.74 billion RMB, slightly above the previous forecast of 1.6 billion RMB [1] - The average market prices for key products in the first half of 2025 are as follows: lysine (98.5%) at 9.2 RMB/kg, lysine (70%) at 5.4 RMB/kg, threonine at 10.5 RMB/kg, and MSG at 7.2 RMB/kg, with year-on-year changes of -8%, +1%, +2%, and -11% respectively [2] Market Outlook - The market prices for lysine (98.5%) and threonine are expected to improve as the peak season approaches, alongside a recovery in MSG consumption demand [3] - The company plans to establish two overseas production bases and expand its sales offices in Vietnam, the USA, and the Netherlands [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 has been raised to 2.8 billion RMB, 3.0 billion RMB, and 3.3 billion RMB respectively, reflecting increases of 16%, 16%, and 17% from previous estimates [4] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 8.62 HKD, based on a valuation of 7x PE for 2025 [4]