Core Viewpoint - Camel Group (骆驼股份) reported a revenue increase in Q3 but faced a significant decline in net profit, indicating challenges in operational performance despite growth in sales [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, Camel Group achieved a revenue of 4.147 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.95%, with a cumulative revenue of 12.142 billion yuan, up 7.14% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 was 87 million yuan, down 49.81% year-on-year, while the cumulative net profit reached 619 million yuan, an increase of 26.95% [1] - The decline in Q3 net profit was attributed to both operational and non-operational losses, including reduced exchange gains due to currency fluctuations and a decrease in gross margin for the recycled lead business [1] Group 2: Product Performance - Camel Group's main products, low-voltage lead-acid batteries and lithium batteries, saw an increase in gross margins year-on-year, with stable growth in lead-acid battery sales [2] - The sales of low-voltage lithium batteries doubled by the end of Q3, reflecting a strong growth trend [2] - The company experienced explosive growth in the sales of lithium batteries for parking air conditioning, with a nearly 50-fold increase in demand for commercial vehicle lithium battery products [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.74 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 67%, driven by increased sales volume and reduced raw material costs [1][2] - The outlook for amino acids and MSG is expected to improve, and the company's overseas expansion is anticipated to contribute additional growth [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is 1.74 billion RMB, slightly above the previous forecast of 1.6 billion RMB [1] - The average market prices for key products in the first half of 2025 are as follows: lysine (98.5%) at 9.2 RMB/kg, lysine (70%) at 5.4 RMB/kg, threonine at 10.5 RMB/kg, and MSG at 7.2 RMB/kg, with year-on-year changes of -8%, +1%, +2%, and -11% respectively [2] Market Outlook - The market prices for lysine (98.5%) and threonine are expected to improve as the peak season approaches, alongside a recovery in MSG consumption demand [3] - The company plans to establish two overseas production bases and expand its sales offices in Vietnam, the USA, and the Netherlands [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 has been raised to 2.8 billion RMB, 3.0 billion RMB, and 3.3 billion RMB respectively, reflecting increases of 16%, 16%, and 17% from previous estimates [4] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 8.62 HKD, based on a valuation of 7x PE for 2025 [4]