上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 08 月 24 日 梅花生物 (600873) —— Q2 业绩符合预期，全球化布局迈入新阶段 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 11.01 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 11.95/8.72 | | 市净率 | 2.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.47 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 31,409 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,825.76/12,166.06 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 5.25 | | 资产负债率% | 37.59 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,853/2,853 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-22 09-22 10-22 11-22 12-22 01-22 02-22 03-22 04-2 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is significantly impacted by carbon neutrality policies, leading to limited new refining capacity and a focus on capacity replacement, resulting in increased industry concentration. Small ethylene units are facing elimination, but the overall effect of supply-side reforms is not significant [1][4][15]. Key Insights and Arguments - Current petrochemical product demand is at a historical low, but large enterprises maintain profitability through diversified business models. OPEC's production cuts have effectively raised oil prices, negatively affecting downstream petrochemical product demand [1][6]. - Domestic refining technology is advanced, with exports of gasoline and diesel to overseas markets. High-quality development policies may accelerate the elimination of small ethylene units and the consolidation of high-energy-consuming refineries, enhancing industry efficiency [1][15]. - Investment opportunities include traditional refining companies (e.g., Huajin Co., Sinopec, Shanghai Petrochemical), private large refining enterprises (e.g., Hengli, Rongsheng, Dongfang Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical), and high-growth companies (e.g., Satellite, Baofeng Energy) [1][16][17]. Additional Important Content - The petrochemical industry plays a crucial role in the economy by processing crude oil into various fuels and chemical products, which account for about 70% of global chemical products [3]. - The current economic climate has led to a historical low in the oil and its derivatives market, with major companies like the "Three Barrels of Oil" maintaining profitability through diversified operations [6]. - OPEC's production cuts have raised oil prices to around $70-$80, despite a weak global demand environment, demonstrating the significant impact of supply-side management on pricing [9][10]. - The domestic refining industry is advanced compared to global standards, with a significant portion of capacity meeting high environmental standards [13][14]. - The high-quality development policies are expected to enforce the retirement of inefficient small ethylene units, which constitute about 6% of the market share [15]. - In the chemical sector, potential investment opportunities under the anti-involution policy include industries with moderate capacity growth and high operating rates, such as industrial salt, silicon, and organic silicon [18][31]. Specific Industry Insights - The organic silicon sector is highlighted as a key recommendation for 2025, with prices currently low but demand growing rapidly [18]. - The food additive sector shows high profitability for certain products like sucralose, while others like monosodium glutamate and lysine face pricing opportunities due to high market concentration [24]. - The soda ash industry is under pressure from energy standards and equipment upgrades, with companies like Boyan Chemical being recommended for their growth potential and attractive dividends [2][26]. Conclusion - The petrochemical and chemical industries are navigating significant challenges and opportunities driven by policy changes, market dynamics, and technological advancements. Investment strategies should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and potential for growth in a changing regulatory environment.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.74 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 67%, driven by increased sales volume and reduced raw material costs [1][2] - The outlook for amino acids and MSG is expected to improve, and the company's overseas expansion is anticipated to contribute additional growth [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is 1.74 billion RMB, slightly above the previous forecast of 1.6 billion RMB [1] - The average market prices for key products in the first half of 2025 are as follows: lysine (98.5%) at 9.2 RMB/kg, lysine (70%) at 5.4 RMB/kg, threonine at 10.5 RMB/kg, and MSG at 7.2 RMB/kg, with year-on-year changes of -8%, +1%, +2%, and -11% respectively [2] Market Outlook - The market prices for lysine (98.5%) and threonine are expected to improve as the peak season approaches, alongside a recovery in MSG consumption demand [3] - The company plans to establish two overseas production bases and expand its sales offices in Vietnam, the USA, and the Netherlands [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 has been raised to 2.8 billion RMB, 3.0 billion RMB, and 3.3 billion RMB respectively, reflecting increases of 16%, 16%, and 17% from previous estimates [4] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 8.62 HKD, based on a valuation of 7x PE for 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has imposed anti-dumping duties on lysine originating from China, affecting several companies with varying rates [1][2]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Duties - The final anti-dumping duties are set at 47.7% for Jilin Meihua Amino Acid Co., Ltd., 58.2% for Heilongjiang Eppen Biotech Co., Ltd., and 53.1% for other cooperating companies [1]. - The anti-dumping tax for other companies not specified in the investigation is also set at 58.2% [1]. - The investigation period for dumping is from January 1, 2023, to December 31, 2023, while the damage investigation period spans from January 1, 2020, to the end of the dumping investigation period [1]. Group 2: Investigation Timeline - The European Commission initiated the anti-dumping investigation on lysine from China on May 23, 2024 [2]. - An initial ruling on the anti-dumping case was made on January 14, 2025 [2].

Summary of Meihua Biological Conference Call Company Overview - Meihua Biological is a leading player in the amino acid industry, benefiting from domestic policies aimed at reducing soybean meal dependency and the growing demand for animal protein. Despite the current low industry sentiment, the company maintains strong cash flow and self-sustaining capabilities, solidifying its market position [2][4]. Key Developments - The company completed the acquisition of Xiehe Fermentation, which was below market expectations. This acquisition fills the gap in the pharmaceutical amino acid segment and adds new product lines, aiding in navigating overseas trade barriers and expanding its growth avenues [2][6]. - Meihua Biological emphasizes shareholder returns through dividends and ongoing buybacks, maintaining over 2 billion in buybacks and dividends annually for the past three years, supported by a disciplined capital expenditure strategy [2][7]. Product and Market Insights - The primary business focuses on amino acid products, including lysine, threonine, valine, and flavor enhancers like MSG, as well as xanthan gum. These products are widely used in various sectors, including animal nutrition, food flavor optimization, and medical nutrition [3][9]. - The amino acid industry is driven by domestic policies to reduce soybean import reliance and increasing consumer demand for animal protein. Although the industry is currently experiencing low sentiment, Meihua Biological continues to exhibit strong cash flow and self-sustaining capabilities [4]. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2022, the company experienced rapid revenue and profit growth. However, due to falling corn prices, a decline in major product prices is expected in 2023-2024, leading to a revenue and profit adjustment. Nonetheless, sales growth is expected to offset revenue declines, with a significant net profit increase in Q1 of this year [5][11]. - The company anticipates being at the bottom of the industry cycle in 2024, with a recovery in mainstream amino acid product sentiment expected in the second half of the year. The projected P/E ratio for next year is around ten times, indicating a relatively high value and low-risk investment point [5][29]. Capacity Expansion Plans - The company added 600,000 tons of lysine capacity, expected to be operational by October this year. Plans for expanding threonine capacity are also in place, contingent on market conditions. Overall, the expansion pace is cautious, with continuous sales growth reinforcing its leading position [10][28]. Shareholder Returns and Capital Expenditure - Meihua Biological prioritizes shareholder returns, maintaining a buyback and dividend amount exceeding 2 billion annually, even during profit declines. The capital expenditure remains controlled, allowing for approximately 2 billion available for dividends [7][14]. - The company’s cash flow remains robust, with over 4.5 billion in annual net cash flow expected, despite a projected decline in net profit levels in 2024 [14]. Industry Trends and Demand - The amino acid industry is expected to grow due to increasing health and nutrition demands, with amino acid feed additives outpacing overall industrial feed growth. Policies aimed at reducing soybean meal usage are projected to decrease soybean demand significantly [16][17]. - The demand for lysine and threonine is expected to rise as alternatives to soybean meal are sought, although current profitability in the pig farming sector may limit immediate demand growth [18][20]. Competitive Landscape - The threonine market is highly concentrated, with the top four companies holding approximately 75% to 80% of the market share, allowing for strong pricing power. In contrast, the lysine market has many smaller players, leading to lower average profitability [20]. Future Outlook - Meihua Biological is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of around 10% annually, with the industry entering a relatively stable phase with conditions for rebound [25][29]. - The company’s strategic acquisition of Xiehe Fermentation is anticipated to enhance its product offerings and market positioning, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, which has higher profit margins compared to animal nutrition products [24][28].

Group 1 - Daqing's agricultural product processing industry is experiencing high-quality development, with a projected revenue of 25.17 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - Lin Dian Wang Shi Food Processing Co., Ltd. has transformed from selling raw grains to producing pancakes, effectively mitigating market risks associated with grain sales [1] - The company operates five production lines, capable of producing 470-500 jin (approximately 235-250 kg) of pancakes daily, with sales covering the entire country [1] Group 2 - Daqing has established a significant rice and corn processing industry, with 31 large-scale rice processing enterprises and an annual processing capacity of 1.45 million tons [2] - Zhaoyuan rice has become one of the first geographical indications recognized by China and the EU, contributing to regional economic development [2] - The corn processing sector is also growing, with 10 large-scale enterprises and a notable output from Yipin, which has maintained over 4 billion yuan in revenue for three consecutive years [2] Group 3 - The dairy and meat industries in Daqing are thriving, with major companies like Yili and Mengniu leading the market [3] - Lin Dian County ranks among the top in dairy processing at the county level, while the meat industry is supported by a comprehensive supply chain from breeding to processing [4] - Daqing is developing a diversified agricultural industry system focusing on four main industries (dairy, meat, corn, rice) and eight specialty industries, enhancing the region's economic growth [4]

Core Business Strategy - The company will firmly implement the "231" industrial development strategy, focusing on "animal nutrition, food seasoning, and value chain extension" as its two core businesses [1] - The company aims to strengthen its animal nutrition, food additives, and seasoning sectors while promoting breakthroughs in three innovative fields: biomedicine, human nutrition and health, and plant nutrition [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 17.334 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 943 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.12% [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 4.039 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 474 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 88.55% [1] Production Capacity and Market Position - The company ranks among the top producers globally in core products such as lysine, threonine, monosodium glutamate, and nucleotides, with both production capacity and technology levels leading the industry [1] - The company is investing in a 600,000-ton corn deep processing and cogeneration project in Xinjiang, which is currently under construction and will primarily produce small-volume amino acid products [2] Project Investments - The company plans to invest no more than 3.3 billion yuan in a 450,000-ton amino acid and supporting engineering project, with funding sourced from its own capital and bank loans, each accounting for approximately 50% [2] - The construction period for the amino acid project is expected to be 22 months [2] Market Conditions - The company acknowledges that product sales prices are influenced by raw material costs, market supply and demand, and industry competition, leading to some volatility [2] - The company is focused on enhancing product competitiveness through cost reduction and efficiency improvement, leveraging its large-scale production capabilities [2]

Group 1: Core Insights - Leiling Rural Commercial Bank focuses on rural revitalization and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin by innovating business products to support the development and efficiency enhancement of industries such as seasoning and food processing [1] - The bank has issued inclusive small and micro enterprise loans totaling 1.797 billion yuan, an increase of 421 million yuan compared to the beginning of the year [1] Group 2: Case Studies - Shandong Zhonggu Starch Sugar Co., Ltd. received a 10 million yuan "Micro Enterprise Credit Loan" from Leiling Rural Commercial Bank to overcome funding difficulties for corn raw material purchases, supporting local economic development [2] - Leiling Tian Da Chili Products Co., Ltd. utilized two patented inventions to secure a 3.41 million yuan "Intellectual Property Pledge Loan" from the bank, aimed at purchasing raw materials for chili and other seasonings [3] - Changsheng Food Co., Ltd. applied for a 3 million yuan loan based on its tax credit, which was quickly approved, providing essential funding for purchasing seasonings [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, highlighting their high dividend characteristics [10]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic demand, high dividend stocks, and import substitution in the chemical industry, especially in light of the recent stabilization of international oil prices [6][17]. - It notes that the international oil price is expected to stabilize around $70 per barrel in 2025, which supports the outlook for companies with strong asset quality and high dividend yields [6][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the chemical industry is currently in a weak performance phase, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [20]. - It highlights specific sectors such as the tire industry, which is expected to perform well due to global positioning and tariff experiences [20]. - The report also identifies opportunities in import substitution for chemical products like lubricant additives and special coatings [20]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were observed in natural gas (up 14.76%), hydrochloric acid (up 9.39%), and synthetic ammonia (up 5.24%) [17][18]. - Conversely, products like adipic acid and coal tar saw notable declines, with adipic acid down 7.53% [17][18]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for various companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Xinyangfeng and Senqilin, with projected EPS growth [10]. - It lists several companies with strong dividend yields, such as Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group, which are expected to attract investor interest [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, highlighting their high dividend characteristics [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic demand, high dividend stocks, and import substitution in the chemical industry, especially in light of the recent stabilization of international oil prices [6][17]. - It notes that the international oil prices have shown a slight increase, with WTI crude oil priced at $64.58 per barrel and Brent crude at $66.47 per barrel as of June 6, 2025, indicating a positive outlook for companies with high dividend yields [6][17]. - The report suggests that the chemical industry is currently experiencing mixed performance across different sub-sectors, with some areas like the tire industry showing better-than-expected results [20]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as natural gas (up 14.76%) and hydrochloric acid (up 9.39%), while products like adipic acid and coal tar have seen notable declines [17][18]. - It recommends focusing on sectors that can benefit from import substitution, such as lubricating oil additives and special coatings, as well as companies involved in chemical fertilizers and coal chemical industries [8][20]. Price Movements - The report details the fluctuations in chemical product prices, noting that while some products have rebounded, others continue to decline, reflecting the overall weak performance of the industry [20][28]. - It mentions that the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to high supply pressures and weak demand, particularly in the urea and compound fertilizer markets [30][31]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecasts - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating expected EPS growth for companies like Xinyangfeng and Senqilin, with respective PE ratios suggesting attractive valuations [10]. - It emphasizes the strong dividend yields of leading companies in the chemical sector, making them appealing investment opportunities in the current market environment [8][10].