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国泰海通:维持小米集团-W(01810)“增持”评级 目标价65.7港元
智通财经网· 2025-10-28 05:55
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Xiaomi Group's revenue and profit forecasts for FY2025E-FY2027E have been adjusted downwards, with target prices set at HKD 65.7 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Xiaomi's automotive delivery volume is expected to reach approximately 109,000 units in Q3, with an anticipated increase in average selling price (ASP) due to the ramp-up of Yu7 deliveries, leading to an estimated automotive sales revenue of around RMB 29.2 billion [1] - The company is projected to achieve operational profitability in its automotive segment in Q3, driven by economies of scale and cost reduction effects [1] Group 2 - According to IDC, global smartphone shipments increased by 2.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with Xiaomi's shipments rising by 1.8% to 43.5 million units, capturing a market share of 13.5% [2] - In the Chinese market, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments declined by 1.7% to 10 million units, with a slight decrease in gross margin expected due to a drop in sales proportion and rising storage costs [2] - The IOT segment is prioritized for profitability, with expected revenue growth of 6% year-on-year to RMB 27.7 billion in Q3, despite a seasonal decline, and a slight increase in gross margin [2] - Internet services are projected to contribute stable revenue and gross margin, with an expected year-on-year revenue increase of 7.7% and a gross margin of 75.4% in Q3 [2]