Core Insights - The automotive delivery volume is steadily increasing, indicating potential profitability at the operational level [1] - The smartphone gross margin is expected to be under pressure due to rising storage costs, with hopes that the high-end shift of the Xiaomi 17 series will mitigate this impact in Q4 [2] Financial Projections - Adjusted revenue forecasts for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) for FY2025E-FY2027E are set at RMB 482.3 billion, 634.7 billion, and 750.6 billion respectively, down from previous estimates of RMB 489.1 billion, 641.8 billion, and 758.4 billion [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are revised to RMB 43.6 billion, 67.9 billion, and 83.3 billion for the same period, compared to prior estimates of RMB 45.4 billion, 68.1 billion, and 83.6 billion [1] - The target price for Xiaomi Group is adjusted to HKD 65.7, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive delivery volume is expected to reach approximately 109,000 units in Q3, with an anticipated increase in average selling price (ASP) due to the ramp-up of Yu7 deliveries, leading to an estimated automotive sales revenue of around RMB 29.2 billion [1] - Xiaomi's automotive division is projected to achieve operational profitability in Q3 due to scale effects and cost reduction measures [1] Smartphone Market Dynamics - In Q3 2025, global smartphone shipments increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with Xiaomi's shipments rising by 1.8% to 43.5 million units, capturing a market share of 13.5%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - In the Chinese market, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments decreased by 1.7% to 10 million units in Q3 2025 [2] - The smartphone gross margin is expected to decline by 0.5 percentage points to 11% in Q3 due to the impact of rising storage costs and a decrease in sales proportion from the Chinese market [2] IOT and Internet Revenue - IOT revenue is projected to grow by 6% year-on-year to RMB 27.7 billion in Q3, although it is expected to decline quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors and subsidy reductions [2] - The IOT gross margin is anticipated to increase by 0.5 percentage points to 23% [2] - Internet revenue is expected to rise by 7.7% year-on-year, maintaining a gross margin of 75.4% quarter-on-quarter [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 65.7 [7][13]. Core Insights - The automotive delivery volume is steadily increasing, indicating potential profitability at the operational level. The report anticipates that Xiaomi's automotive deliveries will approach 109,000 units in Q3, with an expected automotive sales revenue of approximately RMB 29.2 billion [3][11]. - The smartphone segment is facing pressure on gross margins due to rising storage costs, but the upcoming Xiaomi 17 series is expected to shift towards higher-end models, which may mitigate these impacts in Q4 [3][11]. - The Internet of Things (IoT) segment is projected to show stable revenue and gross profit contributions, with expected revenue growth of 6% year-on-year in Q3 [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are as follows: RMB 270.971 billion in 2023, RMB 365.932 billion in 2024, RMB 482.278 billion in 2025E, RMB 634.727 billion in 2026E, and RMB 750.562 billion in 2027E, reflecting a growth rate of 35.0% in 2024 and 31.8% in 2025E [5][16]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are RMB 19.273 billion for 2023, RMB 27.235 billion for 2024, RMB 43.629 billion for 2025E, RMB 67.894 billion for 2026E, and RMB 83.319 billion for 2027E, with a significant growth of 126.3% in 2023 [5][16]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 21.2% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 20.9% in 2024, and then improving to 22.6% by 2025E [5][16]. Revenue Breakdown - Smartphone revenue is projected to decline slightly in the short term, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.8% expected in 2023, but a recovery is anticipated in subsequent years [14]. - IoT revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projections of RMB 134.976 billion by 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.7% [14]. - Automotive revenue is projected to reach RMB 106.647 billion by 2025E, with a significant year-on-year growth of 225.6% [14]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30x for Xiaomi's core business (smartphones, IoT, and internet services) for FY2025, reflecting a premium due to the synergy across hardware and AI potential [13][18]. - The automotive business is valued at a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 2.5x for FY2025, based on Xiaomi's established supply chain management capabilities and brand strength [13][18].

报告中称，公司IOT盈利能力优先，互联网贡献稳定收入及毛利。受Q3传统淡季及国补退坡影响，该行 预计IOT收入同比+6%至277亿，环比有所下滑，预计IOT毛利率环比+0.5pct至23%。互联网贡献稳定收 入及毛利，预计Q3互联网收入同比+7.7%，毛利率75.4%环比持平。 该行表示，汽车交付量逐月爬坡，预计Q3小米汽车交付量接近10.9万台。ASP方面，随着Yu7交付放 量，该行预计Q3汽车ASP环比有所提升，对应Q3汽车销售收入约292亿元。规模化效应凸显叠加产线降 本增效效果显著，该行预计小米汽车有望在Q3实现经营利润层面盈利。 国泰海通发布研报称，调整小米集团-W(01810)FY2025E-FY2027E的营业收入分别为4823/6347/7506亿 人民币(前值为4891/6418/7584亿人民币);调整经调整净利润预测为436/679/833亿人民币(前值为 454/681/836亿人民币)。调整小米集团目标价至65.7港元，维持"增持"评级。 据IDC，25Q3全球智能手机出货量同比+2.6%，其中小米手机全球出货量同比+1.8%至4350万台，市场 份额13.5%，同比-0.1pct。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，调整小米集团-W(01810)FY2025E-FY2027E的营业收入分别 为4823/6347/7506亿人民币(前值为4891/6418/7584亿人民币);调整经调整净利润预测为436/679/833亿人 民币(前值为454/681/836亿人民币)。调整小米集团目标价至65.7港元，维持"增持"评级。 据IDC，25Q3全球智能手机出货量同比+2.6%，其中小米手机全球出货量同比+1.8%至4350万台，市场 份额13.5%，同比-0.1 pct。中国市场方面，25Q3小米手机出货量同比-1.7%至1000万台。受中国区销售 占比环比下滑、存储涨价影响，该行预计Q3小米手机毛利率环比小幅下滑0.5 pct至11%。据卢伟冰10月 23日披露，9月底发布的小米17系列总销量同比上代增长30%、Pro版本占比超过80%，高端化成效显 著，该行判断或将一定程度抵消Q4存储涨价影响。 该行表示，汽车交付量逐月爬坡，预计Q3小米汽车交付量接近10.9万台。ASP方面，随着Yu7交付放 量，该行预计Q3汽车ASP环比有所提升，对应Q3汽车销售收入约292亿元。规模化效应凸显 ...