Core Insights - The overall business activity index in Texas manufacturing has significantly declined to -35.8, marking the lowest level since May 2020, with a drop of 19.5 points from the previous month, reflecting increasing pessimism among businesses regarding the economic environment [1] - Despite the weak overall business atmosphere, Texas manufacturing output remained slightly positive in April, with a production index around 5.1, indicating minor expansion [1] - The new orders index plummeted by 20 points to -20.0, reaching a new low for the year, while the capacity utilization index fell to -3.8, and the shipments index turned negative for the first time this year, dropping from 6.1 to -5.5, highlighting weak demand [1] - Companies' outlook on future business conditions has worsened, with the future company outlook index dropping to -28.3, the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the uncertainty index rising to 47.1, indicating heightened uncertainty among businesses [1] Employment and Labor Market - The labor market indicators show a slight decline in employment, with the employment index stabilizing at -3.9, where 9% of companies reported net hiring and 13% reported net layoffs [2] - The average work hours index decreased from -2.9 to -6.4, indicating a reduction in average working hours [2] Price and Cost Pressures - Input cost pressures have intensified, with the raw materials price index rising by 11 points to 48.4, the highest level since mid-2022, and the finished goods price index increasing by 9 points to 14.9, above the long-term average [2] - In contrast, the wages and benefits index remained stable at 14.3, slightly below historical averages, suggesting relatively steady wage growth [2] Texas Manufacturing Overview - Texas manufacturing generated approximately $296 billion in output in 2023, accounting for about 11% of the national manufacturing output, ranking second in the U.S. behind California, and leading in manufacturing exports [2] - Texas plays a crucial role in the U.S. refining industry, producing significant amounts of oil and coal products, and contributing over 13% of the nation's chemical product output, as well as more than 10% of non-metallic mineral products [2] Future Outlook - The future business activity index for Texas manufacturing has dropped to -15.2, the lowest level in 2023, indicating ongoing challenges [3] - The future production index, while still positive, decreased by 13 points to 14.8, suggesting a weakening expansion momentum [3] - Most indices reflecting future manufacturing activity remain in the expansion zone but are significantly below historical averages [3]