7月1日周二，ISM公布的数据显示，由于订单和就业萎缩加剧，美国6月ISM制造业连续四个月萎缩，美国制造业低迷的局面持续。与此同时，用于衡量原 材料支付价格的指标显示出通胀略有加速的迹象。 美国6月ISM制造业PMI指数为49，预期为48.8，前值为48.5。50为荣枯分界线。 重要分项指数方面： 新订单指数46.4，预期48.1，前值47.6。订单量创下三个月来的最大降幅，并已连续五个月减少，可能反映出关税上升以及整体美国经济放缓。 制造业产出在经历三个月收缩后，6月重新进入扩张区间。 就业指数45，降至三个月低点，预期47.1，前值46.8。就业指数已连续五个月处于收缩区间。 物价支付指数69.7，接近2022年6月以来的最高水平，预期69.5，前值69.4。原材料成本上升仍是制造商面临的问题。 订单积压指数下降2.8个点，为一年来的最大跌幅，至44.3。订单积压指数已连续33个月陷入收缩，创下历史纪录。 进口和出口指标仍处于收缩状态，但下降速度有所放缓。进口指数在上月大跌后在6月跳涨7.5点，创五年来最大单月涨幅。 媒体分析称，需求疲软和订单积压减少，部分解释了制造业就业加速下降的原因。ISM制造业商业 ...

Core Insights - The overall business activity index in Texas manufacturing has significantly declined to -35.8, marking the lowest level since May 2020, with a drop of 19.5 points from the previous month, reflecting increasing pessimism among businesses regarding the economic environment [1] - Despite the weak overall business atmosphere, Texas manufacturing output remained slightly positive in April, with a production index around 5.1, indicating minor expansion [1] - The new orders index plummeted by 20 points to -20.0, reaching a new low for the year, while the capacity utilization index fell to -3.8, and the shipments index turned negative for the first time this year, dropping from 6.1 to -5.5, highlighting weak demand [1] - Companies' outlook on future business conditions has worsened, with the future company outlook index dropping to -28.3, the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the uncertainty index rising to 47.1, indicating heightened uncertainty among businesses [1] Employment and Labor Market - The labor market indicators show a slight decline in employment, with the employment index stabilizing at -3.9, where 9% of companies reported net hiring and 13% reported net layoffs [2] - The average work hours index decreased from -2.9 to -6.4, indicating a reduction in average working hours [2] Price and Cost Pressures - Input cost pressures have intensified, with the raw materials price index rising by 11 points to 48.4, the highest level since mid-2022, and the finished goods price index increasing by 9 points to 14.9, above the long-term average [2] - In contrast, the wages and benefits index remained stable at 14.3, slightly below historical averages, suggesting relatively steady wage growth [2] Texas Manufacturing Overview - Texas manufacturing generated approximately $296 billion in output in 2023, accounting for about 11% of the national manufacturing output, ranking second in the U.S. behind California, and leading in manufacturing exports [2] - Texas plays a crucial role in the U.S. refining industry, producing significant amounts of oil and coal products, and contributing over 13% of the nation's chemical product output, as well as more than 10% of non-metallic mineral products [2] Future Outlook - The future business activity index for Texas manufacturing has dropped to -15.2, the lowest level in 2023, indicating ongoing challenges [3] - The future production index, while still positive, decreased by 13 points to 14.8, suggesting a weakening expansion momentum [3] - Most indices reflecting future manufacturing activity remain in the expansion zone but are significantly below historical averages [3]