Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber industry in Hainan faces structural challenges in 2025 due to aging trees, the lingering effects of Typhoon "Mojiah," and continuous rainfall impacting production and tapping progress [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - Hainan is a crucial natural rubber production base in China, being the largest concentrated latex area and the second-largest all-latex area [1] - Typhoon "Mojiah" caused damage to rubber plantations in Hainan, leading to a tight supply of raw materials and rising rubber prices in 2025 [1] - Despite a seasonal recovery in raw material production during the traditional peak season, overall output remains below market expectations [1] - The import volume of natural rubber is expected to remain high in 2025, with a phase of "capacity cycle reversal" being temporarily disproven [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The registered warehouse inventory of natural rubber has reached a new low since November 2012, but the market's response to low inventory levels is muted due to high overall inventory of all-latex rubber [1][8] - The price of raw rubber in Hainan is reported at 13.1 yuan/kg, but the price has remained high at 16 yuan/kg since August, leading to processing losses for some latex products [5][6] - The demand for all-steel tires is expected to remain strong in 2025, while the semi-steel tire market is relatively weak [6] Group 3: Price and Profitability - The futures price of natural rubber (RU) has increased due to a reduction in warehouse inventory and recent flooding in Southeast Asia, while the price of 20 rubber (NR) is considered undervalued [8] - The price difference between synthetic rubber and natural rubber has widened to historical extremes due to significant domestic capacity increases in butadiene [8] - The profitability of processing lines for concentrated and all-latex rubber continues to decline, with some private processing plants struggling to survive [9]