整体需求提升空间有限，企业控产延续，将限制产能利用率提升幅度。br2601合约短线预计在10450-1080 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 0区间波动。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10520 | -185 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 72012 | 634 | | | 合成橡胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | -30 | 10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2980 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 10600 | 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10550 | 0 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | | | | | | 10 ...

（记者 曾健辉） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每经AI快讯，中策橡胶（SH 603049，收盘价：56.65元）11月19日晚间发布公告称，截至本公告发布 日，公司为子公司、子公司为其他子公司担保总额约为15.95亿元人民币，占公司最近一期经审计净资 产的9.13%。 2024年1至12月份，中策橡胶的营业收入构成为：全钢胎占比45.86%，半钢胎占比34.55%，车胎占比 8.45%，斜交胎占比6.53%，其他占比4.23%。 截至发稿，中策橡胶市值为495亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——爱泼斯坦案文件解密倒计时，美国会"秒过"法案直通特朗普，引爆两党"极 限撕扯" 每日经济新闻 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 流动性：10月BCI中小企业融资环境指数值为52.41，环比+10.15% （1）BCI中小企业融资环境指数2025年10月值为52.41，环比上月+10.15%；（2）M1和M2增速差与上证 指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1和M2增速差在2025年10月为-2.0个百分点，环比-0.80个百分点；（3）本 周伦敦金现价格为4082美元/盎司。 基建和地产链条：1-10月全国房地产新开工面积累计同比为-19.80% （1）本周主要大宗商品价格表现：冷轧、铜、铝价格环比-1.00%、+1.11%、+1.44%，对应的毛利环比变 化扭亏为盈、亏损环比+0.90%、+6.31%；（2）本周全国半钢胎开工率为73.68%，环比+0.01 ...

行，由于检修企业在本周涉及检修天数增多，预计产能利用率将进一步下滑。br2601合约短线预计在1020 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 0-10700区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10505 | 50 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 72021 | -1785 | | | 合成橡胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | 5 | -35 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2980 | 0 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 10500 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 | 10500 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 东(日,元/吨) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory accumulation of natural rubber in Qingdao area has narrowed month - on - month, with a slight destocking in bonded warehouses and continuous inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses. After the concentrated arrival of previously postponed overseas orders, the bonded warehouse inventory is expected to increase further, while the general trade warehouse inventory inflow will significantly decrease. The downstream demand remains at a normal level of rigid demand, but the inventory inflow is still greater than the outflow, so the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area may continue to accumulate in the short term. - The production scheduling of tire maintenance enterprises in China last week returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. This week, most enterprises will maintain stable production to meet order requirements, but it is reported that some enterprises have maintenance plans in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,300 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,300 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,220 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 12,180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton. - The open interest of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 136,995 lots, a decrease of 3,402 lots; the open interest of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 68,949 lots, a decrease of 224 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 30,818 lots, an increase of 2,953 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber are - 10,386 lots, an increase of 563 lots. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 116,210 tons, a decrease of 2,010 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber are 50,703 tons, a decrease of 505 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,968 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.91 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 55.66 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.11 Thai baht/kg. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 56.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.4 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 130.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 43.8 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 23.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.46%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.2 days, an increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.05 days, an increase of 0.23 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.23%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.38%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.28%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.27%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared to September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared to 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded warehouse inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [2].

CFC商品策略研究作者 | 中信建投期货研究发展部 作者：田亚雄本报告完成时间 | 2025年11月11日 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设 置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 当前橡胶供应最显著的特征是其刚性约束。这并非源于短期的天气或政策扰动，而是由橡胶树龄结构老 龄化这一根本问题决定的。产能周期已经转向，这意味着即使价格处于相对高位，也难以刺激出大量的 新增供应。 总体而言，橡胶市场正处于"供需弱平衡、库存中性偏低"的状态。短期看，缺乏打破震荡格局的单边驱 动，价格可能继续在当前区间内运行。然而，供应端的刚性约束与需求端的韧性共同构成了价格的底部 支撑。对于投资者而言，相较于追逐单边趋势，关注RU与NR的价差收敛机会可能更具可行性。市场正 在等待一个能够打破当前平衡的强变量，而上述核心因素的演变将决定橡胶何时选择方向，短期维持主 力天胶合约【14800，15500】运行区间的判断。 研究员：田亚雄 期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0012209 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, some devices are restarted, and supply is expected to increase slightly, but due to the expected increase in future domestic supply, the cost of butadiene rubber remains weak. The situation where downstream terminals firmly press prices is difficult to change, and the inventories of producers and trading enterprises may increase slightly. [2] - Last week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most enterprises will keep production stable this week to meet order needs. It is reported that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. [2] - The short - term price of the br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,500. [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 190 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 76,397, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,644. [2] - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,990 tons, with no week - on - week change. [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan/ton. [2] 3. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 65.16 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is at 61.04 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.91 US dollars/barrel. [2] - Naphtha CFR Japan is at 576.75 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 740 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the middle price of butadiene CFR China is 790 US dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 6,975 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 75 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.26 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 118 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 29,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,430 tons; the trader's inventory is 3,520 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 tons. [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.46%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 2.19 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 days. [2] 5. Industry News - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. [2] - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, or 5.52% month - on - month and 24.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. In October, the output and capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber declined slightly. [2] - As of November 6, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period, or a 5.15% week - on - week decrease. [2]

Group 1 - The company Zhongce Rubber (SH 603049) announced the resignation of Mr. Shen Haoyu as the secretary of the board due to job adjustments [1] - Ms. Shen Luyi will no longer serve as the representative for securities affairs but will continue in other roles within the company [1] - Mr. Zhou Yi has been appointed as the new representative for securities affairs to assist the board secretary [1] Group 2 - For the fiscal year 2024, the revenue composition of Zhongce Rubber is as follows: full steel tires account for 45.86%, semi-steel tires for 34.55%, car tires for 8.45%, bias tires for 6.53%, and others for 4.23% [1] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Zhongce Rubber is 51.3 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongce Rubber announced a board meeting to discuss the change of the board secretary and other documents, indicating ongoing governance activities within the company [1]. Group 1: Company Financials - For the year 2024, Zhongce Rubber's revenue composition is as follows: full steel tires account for 45.86%, semi-steel tires for 34.55%, car tires for 8.45%, bias tires for 6.53%, and others for 4.23% [1]. - As of the report, Zhongce Rubber has a market capitalization of 51.3 billion yuan [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In the current period, with sufficient supply of raw material butadiene and a continuous decline in negotiation prices, the cost side has been dragging down negatively. Both the inventories of production enterprises and sample trading enterprises have decreased. Some devices will restart this week, and supply is expected to increase slightly. However, due to the expected increase in domestic future supply, the cost side of butadiene rubber remains weak. The situation of firm price - pressing by downstream terminals is difficult to change, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises may increase slightly. In terms of demand, last week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most enterprises' devices are operating stably this week, and it is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2601 contract is expected to be between 10,000 - 10,500 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,275 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 85; the position of the main contract is 83,698, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,988. The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,990 tons, with no change [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,300 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,300 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,350 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is 75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 85. Brent crude oil is 63.63 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.25; naphtha CFR Japan is 581.75 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 740 US dollars/ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 790 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10; WTI crude oil is 59.75 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.32; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons/week, with a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.26 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 118; the weekly social inventory is 29,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory is 25,770 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,430 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 3,520 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 160 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.46%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.12 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 2.19 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.23 days [2] Industry News - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.89%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.37%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. In October 2025, the domestic output of butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The output and capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber declined slightly in October. As of November 6, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15% [2]