1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The raw material price is firm during the low - production season, the supply is expected to increase as the tapping season begins, the demand is recovering well, but high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory put pressure on the price [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On March 31, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,345 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 0.82% [1] 3.2 Supply - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import of natural rubber was 1.1065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons or a growth rate of 1.36%. The import volume was slightly lower than that in the same period of 2023, ranking second in the same period in history. The international market demand is average, and domestic downstream pre - festival stocking and arbitrage trading support the high import volume. The global natural rubber is mainly flowing to the Chinese market. The global natural rubber producing areas have normal phenology this year. Starting from mid - March in Yunnan, the world will enter a new tapping season. High raw material prices stimulate tapping enthusiasm, and there is an increasing expectation of new rubber supply in the future [2] 3.3 Demand - On March 27, 2026, the operating rate of China's semi - steel tires was 78.30%, and that of all - steel tires was 70.77%, both higher than the average in the same period over the years. The recovery of tire production line operating rates and the strong export of automobiles drive the downstream to have a stronger purchasing intention, and there may be follow - up purchase orders. The high price of synthetic rubber stimulates some enterprises to increase the substitution purchase of natural rubber, which provides short - term support for the price [3] 3.4 Inventory - According to the survey data of Zhuochuang Information, in the week of March 27, the inventory of general trade warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao was 566,000 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons or 0.78% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area of Qingdao was 141,900 tons, an increase of 600 tons or 0.42% from the previous period [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has returned to the inventory accumulation rhythm, and it is expected that the general trade inventory in Qingdao may continue to accumulate slightly in the short term [2]. - The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly last week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The operating rates are expected to remain high at the end of the quarter, but individual enterprises may adjust production schedules flexibly [2]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 16,850, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,460 yuan/ton, and that of the 20 - number rubber is 13,635 yuan/ton [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 0 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton [2]. - The difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is - 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber decreased by 5,068 hands to 102,159 hands, and that of the 20 - number rubber decreased by 4,368 hands to 51,030 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 704 to - 30,970, and that of the 20 - number rubber is - 213 [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125,410 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber are 43,949 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,700 yuan/ton, and that of Vietnamese 3L is 16,300 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,005 US dollars/ton, and that of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,000 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,520 yuan/ton, and that of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,470 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18,700 yuan/ton, and that of butadiene BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 13.6 US dollars/ton, and that of STR20 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased by 2.95 tons, and that of mixed rubber decreased by 10.31 tons to 13.96 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.72%, and that of semi - steel tires is 78.25% [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong decreased by 2.82 days to 41.09 days, and those of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.75 days to 44.59 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires decreased by 458,000 pieces to 813,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.507 million pieces to 3.461 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset decreased by 0.01%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.06% to 19.39% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options decreased by 0.77% to 31.4%, and that of at - the - money put options decreased by 0.77% to 31.41% [2]. Industry News - In February 2026, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 75,000 vehicles, a decrease of nearly 30% from January 2025 and about 8% from the same period last year. The cumulative sales volume from January to February exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [2]. - As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.18% [2]. - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The raw material prices are firm during the low - production season, and as the rubber - tapping season begins, supply is expected to increase. Although demand is recovering well, high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory put pressure on prices [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On March 25, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,430 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +1.42%. The price center of the natural rubber market rose. The intended transaction price of the mainstream 24 - year SCRWF in the Shanghai market was 16,300 - 16,350 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The intended transaction price of the mainstream Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] 3.2 Supply - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import was 1.1065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons, or 1.36%. The import volume from January to February 2026 was slightly lower than that in the same period of 2023, ranking second in the same period in history. The international market demand is average, and domestic downstream pre - holiday inventory and arbitrage positions support the high import base. Natural rubber still mainly flows to the Chinese market. Starting from mid - March in the Yunnan production area, the world will enter a new round of rubber - tapping season. With raw material prices at a high level, the enthusiasm for rubber - tapping is stimulated, and the expectation of an increase in new rubber supply in the future is rising [2] 3.3 Demand - On March 20, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tires in China was 78.25%, higher than the average in the same period over the years. The operating rate of all - steel tires was 70.72%, also higher than the average in the same period over the years. The operating rate of tire production lines has recovered, downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and automobile exports have exceeded expectations. Follow - up purchase orders may be received. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up resumption of work and the digestion progress under high prices and high inventory. In the context of continuously high raw material costs, the profit pressure of upstream and downstream enterprises is prominent, especially the losses in the downstream are intensifying. Some enterprises have gradually turned to purchasing lower - priced natural rubber to replace synthetic rubber, which provides certain support for the short - term demand for natural rubber [3] 3.4 Inventory - In the week of March 20, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 141,300 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons or 1.29% from the previous period. The inventory of natural rubber in general trade warehouses in the Qingdao area was 561,600 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons or 1.63% from the previous period [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In March, the tire sales season arrives. With rising crude oil prices, downstream tire dealers are actively stocking up. However, there are concerns that the good sales in March may over - consume future demand, leading to a possible decline in April sales. [1][9] - The Middle - East geopolitical conflict may initially impede tire shipments, but if customers accept price increases, shipments may gradually resume. The conflict is expected to last until around mid - to late April, and there is a high probability of reduced production rates due to short - term decreased demand and rising raw material prices. [2][14] - Facing the continuous rise in synthetic rubber prices, tire companies are considering measures such as raising tire prices, adjusting production formulas, and reducing production if losses occur. [2][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Enterprise Profiles - Tire manufacturer A: A global top 50 tire company with an annual production capacity of 8 million sets of all - steel radial tires and 30 million semi - steel tires. The current semi - steel and all - steel tire production rates are around 85%. There are expectations of production cuts from late March to early April. [4] - Tire manufacturer B: Specializes in high - performance all - steel and semi - steel radial tires and rubber conveyors. The annual production capacity of all - steel radial tires is 1.8 million sets, and that of semi - steel radial tires is 12 million sets. After the Spring Festival, production has been running well, with both production lines almost at full capacity. [5] - Tire manufacturer C: Uses advanced production technology to produce all - steel radial tires, with a production capacity of 2.4 million sets. After the Spring Festival, production quickly recovered to full capacity. In 2025, tire production and sales increased by about 10% compared to 2024. [5] - Tire manufacturer D: Has an annual all - steel tire production capacity of 2.2 million sets and a semi - steel tire production capacity of 12 million sets. Currently, the all - steel tire production is at full capacity, with smooth shipments and a 20 - day product inventory. The production capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million sets to 2.6 - 2.8 million sets. [6] - Tire manufacturer E: Has two all - steel tire factories in China and one all - steel and one semi - steel tire factory in Vietnam. The total all - steel tire production capacity is about 11 million sets per year, planned to increase to 12 million sets. The semi - steel tire production capacity in the Vietnam factory is about 4 million sets per day. [6] - Tire dealer A: Specializes in all - steel tire wholesale, with a peak monthly sales volume of about 10,000 tires. It currently has an inventory of six to seven thousand tires. This month, shipments are fast, but next month, shipment pressure is expected to be high. [7] - Qingdao Bonded Area Warehouse B: Has a warehouse area of over 100,000 square meters, mainly storing mixed rubber, plastics, pulp, and agricultural products. The normal rubber inventory is about 100,000 tons. There are delivery warehouses for No. 20 rubber NR and synthetic BR. [7] - Qingdao Bonded Area Warehouse C: The warehouse park covers an area of 175,000 square meters with a total storage capacity of 240,000 tons. It has multiple functions including bonded, general trade, and futures delivery. The inventory includes various types of rubber. [8] 3.2 Current Production and Sales of Tire Companies - In March, due to rising crude oil prices, downstream tire dealers are actively stocking up. Except for shipments to the Middle - East, tire companies have had good sales since March. However, there are concerns about over - consuming future demand, and sales may decline in April. Currently, most tire companies have high production rates, over 80%, and some are at full capacity, with plans to further increase production this year. [1][9] 3.3 Current Spot Inventory of Rubber and Tires - Tire companies' rubber inventory levels vary, with some participating in futures hedging and some not. Synthetic rubber suppliers have defaulted due to rapid price increases. Tire companies' product inventory is lower than last year. In the first half of March, downstream purchases were concentrated, and tire manufacturers accelerated shipments. Qingdao Port's rubber inventory is unlikely to decrease significantly in March. Even if there is a decrease, it will be short - term. The warehouse is almost full, and while concentrated pick - ups by tire factories may lead to inventory reduction, the expected incoming goods are still substantial. Inventory reduction may occur in the second quarter. [2][12] 3.4 Demand and Consumption of Tires by New - Energy Vehicles - The proportion of natural rubber used in new - energy vehicle tires increases. For semi - steel tires of pure - electric new - energy vehicles, the use of natural rubber increases by 6% - 7%, and for all - steel tires, it increases by 1% - 3%. New - energy vehicle tires wear 20% - 30% faster than fuel - powered vehicle tires, and the proportion of semi - steel tires is increasing. The unit price of new - energy vehicle tires is more than 15% higher than that of fuel - powered vehicle tires. New - energy commercial vehicles have great growth potential, mainly for short - distance transportation. [13] 3.5 Impact of the Middle - East Situation on Tire Sales in the Middle - East - If the Middle - East geopolitical conflict continues, tire shipments will initially be blocked. If customers accept price increases, shipments will gradually resume. The conflict is expected to last until around mid - to late April. In the short term, tire demand in the Middle - East will decrease, and there is a high probability of reduced production rates due to rising raw material prices. [2][14] 3.6 Countermeasures of Tire Companies Against Rising Raw Material Prices - Tire companies are considering the following countermeasures: passing on costs to downstream by raising tire prices, adjusting the tire production formula to reduce the proportion of expensive raw materials, and reducing production and production rates if losses occur. [2][15] 3.7 Industry Structure and Market Characteristics - The tire industry in China has a low concentration but is in the process of accelerating concentration. It shows the characteristics of a "large industry with small enterprises," with a competitive market. The top 10 tire companies account for less than half of the market share. Head - tier companies have a complete product line, scale effects, and are building overseas factories, while small and medium - sized companies face problems such as product homogenization, price competition, and high environmental and production costs. [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Weakly Oscillating" rating for the natural rubber industry [1] Core Viewpoint - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected increase in supply as the tapping season begins, good demand recovery, but high inventory and rising bonded area inventory putting pressure on prices [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - On March 23, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,145 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +0.84% [1] - The price center of the natural rubber market rose slightly. In the Shanghai market, the intended transaction price of 24-year SCRWF mainstream goods was 16,000 - 16,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the intended transaction price of Vietnam 3L mixed rubber mainstream goods was 16,500 - 16,550 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] 2. Supply - The phenology of the world's major natural rubber producing areas is normal this year. Starting from the Yunnan production area in mid-March, the world will enter a new round of tapping season. The high raw material prices stimulate the enthusiasm for tapping, and the expectation of an increase in new rubber supply in the future is rising [2] 3. Demand - On March 20, 2026, the operating rate of China's semi-steel tires was 78.25%, higher than the average of the same period over the years, and the operating rate was high. The operating rate of China's all-steel tires was 70.72%, higher than the average of the same period over the years, and the operating rate was high [3] - The operating rate of tire production lines has recovered, the downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and the automobile export drive has exceeded expectations. There may be follow-up purchase orders. Attention should be paid to the subsequent resumption of work and the digestion progress under high prices and high inventory. In addition, the situation in Iran has intensified market risk aversion, and the rising shipping costs are not conducive to the recovery of the demand side [3] 4. Inventory - According to the research data of Zhuochuang Information, in the week of March 20, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 141,300 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from the previous period, a rise of 1.29%. In the same week, the inventory of natural rubber in the general trade warehouses in Qingdao was 561,600 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous period, a rise of 1.63% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The London gold spot price has dropped significantly by 10.49% week-on-week, marking the largest weekly decline in six years, with the current price at $4,492 per ounce [10] - The financing environment index for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) is at 48.66 for February 2026, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.20% [15] - The cumulative year-on-year sales area of commercial housing in China for January-February 2026 is down by 13.50% [18] Liquidity - The total liabilities of the Federal Reserve are reported at $6.61 trillion, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [10] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in February 2026 is -3.1 percentage points, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.0 percentage points [15] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The cumulative year-on-year new construction area of commercial housing for January-February 2026 is down by 23.10% [18] - The national average price index for cement has increased by 1.58% week-on-week, with a current operating rate of 46.95% [59] Industrial Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high of 78.25%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.54 percentage points [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is reported at 24,030 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 4.26% [9] Price Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is currently at 3.94, indicating a significant price relationship [3] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 90 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 40 yuan [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in February 2026 is at 45.00%, down by 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1,120.61 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.52% [3] Valuation Levels - The CSI 300 index has decreased by 2.19%, with the steel and industrial metals sectors showing a PB ratio of 30.19% and 63.67% relative to the CSI 300 [4] - The current PB ratio for the steel sector is 0.49, which is near its historical high of 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals and steel sectors, while short-term observations should focus on oil price performance and steel production policies [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, the tire industry will maintain a differentiated pattern with strong all - steel tires and weak semi - steel tires, and price trends are dominated by the cost side. Channel sentiment is the core variable affecting inventory changes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The day - session closing price of rubber main contract decreased from 16,400 yuan/ton to 16,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan; the night - session closing price decreased from 16,405 yuan/ton to 16,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 395 yuan. The trading volume increased by 4,638 hands to 303,515 hands, the holding volume decreased by 9,905 hands to 117,267 hands, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,000 tons to 125,440 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 4,171 hands to 15,325 hands [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract increased from - 150 to - 90, an increase of 60; the basis of mixed - futures main contract increased from - 1,100 to - 940, an increase of 160; the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 decreased from 100 to 60, a decrease of 40. The RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 outer - disk quotes all decreased [1] - **Substitutes and Spot Market**: The prices of Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber both increased by 100 yuan/ton. The prices of Thai standard, Thai mixed, and African 10 in the Qingdao market import rubber market decreased [1] 2. Industry News - As of March 19, 2026, the finished product inventory of Shandong tire sample enterprises showed a mixed trend. All - steel tires had significant de - stocking effects due to price increase expectations, while semi - steel tires' inventory slightly increased due to weak price increase transmission and foreign trade disturbances [2][3] - In the short term, the de - stocking trend of all - steel tires is expected to continue, but attention should be paid to the risk of terminal demand recovery falling short of expectations. The inventory of semi - steel tires may maintain a slight accumulation trend, and attention should be paid to the recovery of foreign trade orders and the follow - up of industry price increases [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is steadily advancing the tapping process, and new domestic rubber is gradually entering the market. Overseas natural rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season. Recently, the bonded warehouses at Qingdao Port have continued to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses have reduced inventory, resulting in a slight reduction in the total inventory. The arrival of US - dollar standard rubber at the port remains at a low level, and tire enterprises' production has recovered to a high level. They replenish raw materials at low prices, and the outbound volume of general trade warehouses is greater than the inbound volume. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly in the short term. This week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has rebounded slightly. Semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly focused on fulfilling foreign trade orders, and with the tight supply of domestic sales, their capacity utilization rate remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has increased slightly. Driven by price - increase news, the enterprises' shipments are concentrated, and there is an obvious shortage of goods, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. Entering the end of the quarter, some enterprises are expected to maintain a high operating rate to complete quarterly tasks, but individual enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,850 - 13,300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 85 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 117,267 lots, a decrease of 9,905 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 60,014 lots, a decrease of 1,123 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,960 lots, an increase of 6,154 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,842 lots, an increase of 136 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125,440 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 48,787 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 15,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 1,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,541 yuan/ton, a decrease of 251 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 616 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 75.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.9 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 70 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.45 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 73.5 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, an increase of 94,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.22%, an increase of 4.32 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 77.71%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 43.91 days, a decrease of 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 43.84 days, an increase of 0.74 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 25.05%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 23.23%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 29.46%, a decrease of 2.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 29.46%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The reason for the year - on - year and month - on - month decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly the seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival month. As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.42%. The bonded area inventory is 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the general trade inventory is 556,300 tons, a decline of 0.81%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased by 1.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate has increased by 1.71 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses has increased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate has increased by 2.22 percentage points. As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The trend strength of rubber is -1, indicating a bearish view [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daytime closing price of the rubber main contract decreased by 400 yuan/ton, the night - time closing price decreased by 230 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 40,371 lots, the holding volume of the 05 contract decreased by 5,883 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 460 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 3,214 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" remained unchanged, the "mixed - futures main contract" increased by 100, and the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 increased by 5 [1] - **Spot Market**: The outer - disk quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 all decreased. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene also decreased. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market, such as Thai standard and Thai mixed, decreased [1] Industry News - As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao decreased by 0.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.42%. The bonded area inventory increased by 1.43%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.81%. The social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased by 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 1.13% [2][3] - The production enterprises of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires maintained a high - level operation. The downstream purchasing sentiment was improved, but there were still export resistances due to geopolitical factors, and the inventory performance of enterprises showed differences [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port decreased slightly, with the bonded warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory and the general trade warehouse reducing inventory. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease slightly in the short term [2]. - The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week, and the production schedules of each tire enterprise have basically returned to the normal level, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. The export of tire enterprises in some regions is still facing resistance due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, and there is a possibility of a slight decline. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,700 - 17,500, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 16,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 133,055 lots, a decrease of 1,814 lots; the trading volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 61,564 lots, a decrease of 2,826 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 45,830 lots, an increase of 453 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,457 lots, an increase of 481 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 123,980 tons, an increase of 3,180 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 48,787 tons, a decrease of 504 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market was 17,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 2,020 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 2,015 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 was 16,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 was 15,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 104 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 74.1 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.53 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 69.55 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.7 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 72.3 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, an increase of 94,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 70.22%, an increase of 4.32 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 77.71%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 43.91 days, a decrease of 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 43.84 days, an increase of 0.74 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.08%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.15%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 32.07%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 32.06%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 75,000 units, a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a decrease of about 8% compared with the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [2]. - As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port (bonded and general trade) was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The inventory in the bonded area was 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the inventory in general trade was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 0.81% [2]. - As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [2].