LMC Automotive最新报告显示，2025年8月全球轻型车经季节调整年化销量为9,400万辆/年出头，与上 月基本持平。欧洲汽车制造商协会的数据显示，2025年8月欧盟乘用车市场销量增长5.3%至677,786辆。 9月30日，国内期市能化板块跌幅居前。其中，20号胶期货主力合约报收于12100.00元/吨，大幅下跌 2.18%。 【消息面汇总】 9月30日，上期所20号胶期货仓单42034吨，环比上个交易日减少403吨。 据大阪交易所（OSE）官网9月20日数据，截至2025年9月20日，交易所指定仓库的橡胶（RSS）库存为 3015吨，较截至9月10日的3217吨减少202吨。 机构观点 宁证期货：产区未来增量预期较强，下游轮胎厂节前补库基本完成，市场交投偏弱，叠加临近假期资金 避险情绪升温，预计短时胶价震荡偏弱运行。整体上，橡胶处于低库存，弱需求局面。 华联期货：旺季上量预期和油价弱势为市场带来压力，而且宏观贸易摩擦边际增加。台风威力不及预期 也带来利好出尽。当前价格之下，割胶积极性尚可，胶水对杯胶的溢价处于极低位置暗示供应问题不 大。今年1-8月天然及合成橡胶进口增长19%左右，幅度较大，但8 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15150 - 15700 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12500 in the short - term. The recent inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, mainly in general trade warehouses. Demand - wise, last week tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels, with overall operating levels slightly adjusted. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance due to insufficient orders, which will drag down the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15375 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 45 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12430 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2945 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber contracts decreased, while the net positions of the top 20 increased. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber increased by 1790 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber decreased by 505 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers were 1860 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers were unchanged. The prices of synthetic rubbers such as Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 and BR 9000 were unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products changed, and the basis of 20 - number rubber increased [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference prices of Thai raw rubber such as smoked sheets and films decreased, while those of glue and cup rubber were unchanged. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 increased. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased, while that of mixed rubber increased. The weekly operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires changed slightly [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased. The monthly output of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying changed, and the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options increased [2]. Industry News - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.65 tons, a decrease of 0.47 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 1.01%. The inventory in the bonded area remained unchanged, and that in general trade decreased. The entry and exit rates of warehouses changed. As of September 25, the capacity utilization rates of Chinese semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises changed. The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season, with different situations in Yunnan and Hainan [2].

Summary of Conference Call Records Company: Sailun Tire Industry Overview - Sailun Tire has established production bases in multiple countries including Vietnam, Cambodia, Mexico, and Indonesia, with plans to build a new factory in Egypt to be closer to consumer markets and avoid trade barriers, enhancing overseas profitability [1][2] - The global tire replacement market is experiencing growth, but Chinese tire companies face export tariff challenges. Sailun effectively mitigates these barriers through overseas manufacturing, projecting an overseas gross margin of 30% in 2024, significantly higher than the domestic margin of 21% [1][6][11] Core Business Insights - Sailun's product range includes semi-steel tires, all-steel tires, and off-road tires, with a focus on expanding the high-margin off-road tire market. By the end of 2024, the company aims to achieve an off-road tire production capacity of 215,000 tons, with plans to expand to 450,000 tons [1][3][7] - The company has developed a proprietary "Liquid Gold" tire technology that addresses rolling resistance, wet traction, and wear resistance, enhancing its long-term growth potential [8][10] Financial Performance and Projections - Sailun's revenue is projected to rank tenth globally in 2023 and 2024, with expected profits of 4.2 billion, 5.2 billion, and 6.2 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, indicating sustained growth [2][4][12] - Recent fluctuations in raw material prices have impacted gross margins, but a decrease in prices is anticipated in the latter half of the year, with expectations for improved margins in Q3 and Q4 [9] Competitive Advantages - Sailun's integration of production, education, and research, in collaboration with Qingdao University of Science and Technology and EVE Rubber Research Institute, supports continuous product optimization, particularly in the high-margin off-road tire segment [7] - The company's overseas production strategy not only provides tax advantages but also enhances its competitive edge in the global market [11] Company: Jerry Holdings Market Development - Jerry Holdings has made significant progress in the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa, particularly in the natural gas sector, with countries like Oman, Qatar, and the UAE planning substantial increases in natural gas production [13] - The company has secured large orders, including significant contracts in Kuwait and Algeria, positioning these regions as key growth areas [13] U.S. Market Opportunities - Despite challenges in the U.S. market due to past oil price volatility, Jerry Holdings is poised for growth as the market enters a new equipment replacement cycle, with approximately 40% of the 200+ fracturing fleets needing updates [14] - If Jerry captures 10% of this market, it could result in annual orders for about 5 units of equipment, each generating approximately 200 million yuan in revenue with a gross margin of 60%-70% [14] Domestic Market Prospects - In China, the focus on energy security has led to increased capital expenditure in unconventional oil and gas exploration, benefiting Jerry as a supplier of related equipment [15] - The company is expected to gain from the rising capital expenditures in unconventional oil and gas sectors, providing a stable growth foundation [15] Conclusion - Both Sailun Tire and Jerry Holdings are positioned to leverage their strategic advantages and market opportunities for sustained growth in their respective sectors, with Sailun focusing on global expansion and product innovation, while Jerry capitalizes on regional developments and equipment upgrades.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the RU2601 contract oscillating between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton, the NR main contract between 11,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the synthetic rubber BR main contract between 11,000 - 12,300 yuan/ton. In the long term, there is a higher probability of an upward breakthrough [1][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the third quarter of this year, rubber prices generally showed a pattern of rising and then falling. In July, stimulated by the "anti - involution" policy in China, rubber prices rose. Tensions between Cambodia and Thailand also boosted market sentiment, but prices dropped after the conflict ended. In August, prices fluctuated within a narrow range due to a decline in tire enterprise operating rates. In September, prices declined again due to weak demand, high semi - steel tire inventory, and the approaching peak production season [3] 2. Industrial Structure Analysis 2.1 Upstream - Since September, raw material production in the Xishuangbanna area has gradually increased, but recent rainfall has made raw material release unstable. Typhoon "Hikaa" affected Hainan in late September, limiting rubber production, but the impact was limited. Some areas in Thailand's main production regions are still affected by rainfall, with slow and unstable raw material release. As the market declined, raw material purchase prices weakened, but the low inventory of rubber factories supported the bottom of the cup - rubber purchase price. Upstream processing plants have high production costs and lack processing profits [5] - The global rubber production capacity is still in an increasing cycle. Although the growth rate of newly opened - up areas has slowed down since 2020, the production capacity remains large. In 2020, production decreased due to the pandemic and weather factors, and the marginal output has been declining since 2021. ANRPC predicts that in July 2025, global natural rubber production will slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, and consumption will drop by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons. For the first 7 months, cumulative production is expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption will decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption will increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons [7][8] - According to QinRex data, in the first 8 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [9] 2.2 Midstream - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import volume was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase [11] - As of the week of September 25, the total inventory of natural rubber futures warehouse receipts was 153,570 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week. The total inventory of 20 - number rubber futures warehouse receipts was 44,756 tons, a slight increase of 100 tons [11] - As of the week of September 19, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 4.537 million tons, a 0.94% decrease. The inventory in the bonded area was 71,100 tons, a 6.32% decrease, while the general trade inventory was 382,600 tons, a 0.13% increase [11] 2.3 Downstream - As of the week of September 25, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 65.04%, the same as the previous week and 8.7% higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.52%, the same as the previous week but 4.27% lower than the same period last year. Tire enterprises are facing pressure on inventory due to slow export order delivery and weak domestic demand [15] - In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative production was 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% increase. From January to August, China's rubber tire exports reached 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% increase, and the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a 4.6% increase [17] - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. Among them, new energy vehicle production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of total vehicle sales. From January to August, China's automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a 13.7% year - on - year increase, and new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, an 87.3% year - on - year increase [20] - In August 2025, heavy - truck wholesale sales reached about 87,000 vehicles, a 40% year - on - year increase and a 2% month - on - month increase. From January to August, heavy - truck sales reached about 711,000 vehicles, a 14% year - on - year increase, and annual sales are expected to exceed 1 million vehicles [25] - At the end of August 2025, the total inventory of all - steel tires in China was 10.19 million pieces (from 25 monitored sample enterprises), a slight decrease from the end of July. The total inventory of semi - steel tires was 18.53 million pieces, also a slight decrease from the end of July [26] 3. Future Outlook - Supply side: Currently, heavy rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas affects rubber tapping, leading to tight raw material output. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, the main domestic distribution hub, continues to decline. In the long term, the aging of rubber trees in Indonesia and Malaysia will lead to a decline in future production [31] - Demand side: The improvement in the downstream tire market is limited. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories has weakened, and the spot trading pace has slowed, reducing the support for natural rubber prices. The inventory of semi - steel tire products remains high, and the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has been declining this year [31] - Technical side: In the short term, rubber prices will fluctuate within a range. In the long term, there is a higher probability of an upward breakthrough [31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market in Q3 2025 showed a sideways oscillation with no obvious unilateral trend. In Q4, the market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more prominent in the early stage and potential for rebounds due to weather and policies in the later stage [6][53]. - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase in Q4, but weather disturbances and the pace of increased tapping will support prices from the bottom. The cost of synthetic rubber remains under pressure, and the supply situation will not change significantly in the short term [8][28]. - The demand for rubber from the tire industry is affected by factors such as the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" not meeting expectations, EU anti - dumping investigations, and US tariff policies. However, domestic new energy vehicle policies provide some support [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since Q3, the three major rubber futures markets have been in a sideways oscillation. Rain and typhoons in July - August supported rubber prices by hindering tapping, but in September, with the seasonal peak production season and the "zero - tariff rubber import" pilot project, concerns about increased supply grew. The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was below expectations, and EU anti - dumping investigations and US tariff policies affected exports, while domestic new energy vehicle policies supported demand [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation Natural Rubber - **Raw Material Prices**: As of September 26, raw material prices in Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan were lower than the same period last year. Prices have been relatively stable in Q3, and are expected to remain stable in Q4, providing cost support [8]. - **Supply Growth**: The global supply growth of natural rubber is slowing down. In 2025, the global output is expected to increase by only 0.5%. China's output has increased significantly, while Indonesia and Vietnam's output is expected to decline. Weather will be a major variable affecting output in Q4 [10]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Thailand is the largest source, and imports from Cote d'Ivoire are growing. If the China - Cote d'Ivoire zero - tariff policy is implemented, imports may further increase [17]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of September 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 111.2 tons. Qingdao's inventory has been decreasing, but the pace has slowed. In Q4, the inventory reduction pressure may increase with more arrivals from major producing areas [20]. Synthetic Rubber - **Profit of Butadiene Rubber Enterprises**: In 2025, the large increase in butadiene production capacity led to an oversupply situation, putting pressure on prices. The cost of butadiene rubber remains high, and production profit is under pressure. Although production growth has slowed, it remains at a high level [28]. - **Inventory of Butadiene Rubber**: As of the week of September 26, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, both higher than the same period last year. The market is in a weak supply - demand balance, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion during the peak demand season [29]. - **Imports and Exports of Butadiene Rubber**: In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports increased. China has shifted from a net importer to a net exporter, and this pattern is expected to continue in Q4 [31]. Tires - **All - steel Tires**: As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 66.39%, and the factory inventory days were 39.16 days. The social inventory at the end of August was 62,500 units. Factory inventory has decreased significantly, but social inventory remains high. After the National Day holiday, the resumption of production by tire enterprises will affect supply pressure [36]. - **Semi - steel Tires**: In August, the production of passenger cars and semi - steel tires increased. However, due to the mismatch between supply and demand and EU anti - dumping investigations, the factory inventory pressure is large [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, the export of all - steel tires was relatively stable, with new growth points in emerging markets. The export of semi - steel tires decreased after reaching a high in July. In Q4, semi - steel tire exports may face downward pressure, while all - steel tires may benefit from emerging markets [46]. 3.3 Related Price Situation - The price spreads among the three major rubber futures contracts were relatively stable, indicating that the internal supply - demand fundamentals of rubber were not significantly differentiated, and market influencing factors tended to be consistent [50]. 3.4 Future Market Outlook - In Q4, raw material prices are expected to run stably, providing cost support. The supply from Cote d'Ivoire may increase. Qingdao's inventory reduction pressure may grow. The tire industry's inventory and production resumption after the National Day will affect demand. Macroeconomic factors include the impact of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and potential domestic macro - easing policies. The market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more obvious in the early stage and potential for rebounds later [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber产区处于割胶期，云南产区降雨扰动仍存，加工厂采购需求旺盛使原料价格坚挺；台风“桦加沙”影响海南产区割胶作业，原料供应收紧 [2] - 近期青岛港口库存延续降库但降幅缩窄，保税库继续去库，一般贸易库延续小幅累库，海外船货到港集中入库，入库量超预期，保税库出库量好于一般贸易库 [2] - 上周国内轮胎企业产能利用率窄幅波动，半钢胎内销雪地胎订单集中排产期支撑开工，全钢胎替换市场需求未明显提升且部分企业外贸出口有压力，部分企业库存有提升迹象，短期企业产能利用率可能小幅下调 [2] - ru2601合约短线预计在15400 - 16000区间波动，nr2511合约短线预计在12300 - 12800区间波动 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - 沪胶主力合约收盘价15570元/吨，环比 - 50；20号胶主力合约收盘价12430元/吨，环比 - 15 [2] - 沪胶1 - 5价差55元/吨，环比 - 20；20号胶11 - 12价差10元/吨，环比 - 35 [2] - 沪胶与20号胶价差3140元/吨，环比 - 15 [2] - 沪胶主力合约持仓量152529手，环比 - 799；20号胶主力合约持仓量51920手，环比 - 2296 [2] - 沪胶前20名净持仓 - 27840，环比 - 1019；20号胶前20名净持仓 - 13209，环比 - 1525 [2] - 沪胶交易所仓单153570吨，环比 - 2260；20号胶交易所仓单44756吨，环比 - 100 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - 上海市场国营全乳胶14850元/吨，环比 - 50；上海市场越南3L 15250元/吨，环比0 [2] - 泰标STR20 1870美元/吨，环比35；马标SMR20 1870美元/吨，环比35 [2] - 泰国人民币混合胶14880元/吨，环比100；马来西亚人民币混合胶14830元/吨，环比100 [2] - 齐鲁石化丁苯1502 12100元/吨，环比0；齐鲁石化顺丁BR9000 11700元/吨，环比0 [2] - 沪胶基差 - 720元/吨，环比100；沪胶主力合约非标准品基差 - 740元/吨，环比5 [2] - 青岛市场20号胶13220元/吨，环比40；20号胶主力合约基差790元/吨，环比75 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 泰国生胶烟片市场参考价59.35泰铢/公斤，环比 - 0.38；胶片市场参考价57.3泰铢/公斤，环比0 [2] - 胶水市场参考价55.3泰铢/公斤，环比0；杯胶市场参考价50.8泰铢/公斤，环比0.35 [2] - RSS3理论生产利润151美元/吨，环比 - 7.6；STR20理论生产利润 - 5美元/吨，环比12 [2] - 技术分类天然橡胶月度进口量11.31万吨，环比 - 0.88；混合胶月度进口量26.84万吨，环比0.89 [2] - 全钢胎开工率65.66%，环比0.07；半钢胎开工率73.66%，环比0.2 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - 全钢轮胎山东库存天数39.13天，环比0.3；半钢轮胎山东库存天数46.02天，环比0.08 [2] - 全钢胎当月产量1303万条，环比28；半钢胎当月产量5806万条，环比109 [2] 3.5 Option Market - 标的历史20日波动率15.59%，环比 - 0.13；标的历史40日波动率15.17%，环比 - 1.25 [2] - 平值看涨期权隐含波动率23.31%，环比0.36；平值看跌期权隐含波动率23.33%，环比0.36 [2] 3.6 Industry News - 截至2025年9月21日，青岛地区天胶保税和一般贸易合计库存46.12万吨，环比降0.36万吨，降幅0.76%；保税区库存6.94万吨，降幅5.07%；一般贸易库存39.18万吨，增幅0.04% [2] - 青岛天然橡胶样本保税仓库入库率增加0.59个百分点，出库率减少2.91个百分点；一般贸易仓库入库率增加1.32个百分点，出库率增加1.78个百分点 [2] - 截至9月18日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率72.74%，环比 + 0.13个百分点，同比 - 6.92个百分点；全钢胎样本企业产能利用率66.36%，环比 + 0.05个百分点，同比 + 6.18个百分点 [2] 3.7 Suggested Attention - 周四隆众轮胎样本企业开工率 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In the Yunnan region, rainfall disturbances persist, and with strong procurement demand from processing plants, raw material prices remain firm. Typhoon "Hagasa" brought heavy rainfall to the Hainan region, significantly affecting tapping operations, restricting the output of fresh latex, tightening the supply of local raw materials, and limiting the actual procurement volume of local rubber processing plants by processing plants. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao ports continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The bonded warehouses continued to reduce inventory, while the general trade warehouses continued to accumulate inventory slightly. Overseas shipments arrived at the port and were concentrated in storage. The inbound volume of Qingdao warehouses increased significantly and exceeded expectations. Previously, downstream tire factories gradually picked up and shipped out orders, but the quantity was limited. The outbound volume of bonded warehouses was better than that of general trade warehouses, and general trade warehouses continued to show a slight inventory accumulation state. In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly. The domestic sales of snow tires for semi - steel tires had concentrated production scheduling, and some enterprises moderately increased production, which still provided some support for the overall operation rate. The demand in the replacement market for all - steel tires did not improve significantly, and some enterprises faced pressure in foreign trade exports. Currently, although some enterprises still faced shortages, the enterprise equipment operated stably to replenish inventory, but the overall sales performance fell short of expectations, and the inventory of some enterprises still showed signs of increase. To relieve the pressure, some enterprises may flexibly control production, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises may be slightly reduced. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,800 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 20 yuan/ton; the 11 - 12 spread of 20 - rubber was 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber was - 15 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 152,529 lots, a decrease of 799 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract was 51,920 lots, a decrease of 2,296 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 27,840 lots, a decrease of 1,019 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber was - 1,525 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 153,570 tons, a decrease of 2,260 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 44,756 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,870 US dollars/ton, an increase of 35 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,870 US dollars/ton, an increase of 35 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR 9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 100 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 720 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract was 790 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of RSS3 in Thailand was 59.35 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.38 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber sheets was 57.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber latex was 55.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai cup lump was 50.8 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.35 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was - 7.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 151 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber was 11.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.88 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 26.84 million tons, an increase of 0.89 million tons. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.66%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.13 days, an increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 46.02 days, an increase of 0.08 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 280,000 pieces, an increase of 28,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.806 million pieces, an increase of 1.303 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.59%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.17%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.31%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.33%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 461,200 tons (the previous total inventory was 464,700 tons after inventory adjustment), a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory was 69,400 tons (the previous bonded inventory was 73,100 tons after inventory adjustment), a decline of 5.07%; the general trade inventory was 391,800 tons (the previous general trade inventory was 391,600 tons after inventory adjustment), an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points. As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient, and the negotiation center on the spot side is under continuous pressure. Some industry players expect a certain reduction in the mainstream supply price. [2] - Before the National Day holiday, downstream buyers have a demand for stocking up. It is expected that buying will gradually pick up, and the inventory level is expected to continue to decline. [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. The semi - steel tire market has some support for overall production, while the all - steel tire market has no obvious improvement in demand and some export pressure. [2] - The short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises may be slightly reduced, and the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 58,650, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,938. [2] - The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,570 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 40 tons. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,550 - 11,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. [2] - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,500 - 11,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 - 150 yuan/ton. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 80 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. [2] - Brent crude oil is 67.63 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.06 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 597.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.87 US dollars/ton. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 845 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,060 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - WTI crude oil is 63.41 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.13 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 66.78%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 23,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.85%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.21 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 69.72%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.76 percentage points. [2] - The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 658 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 149 yuan/ton; the social inventory of butadiene rubber is 33,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 400 tons; the trader's inventory of butadiene rubber is 7,820 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 390 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.09 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.13 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.02 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 days. [2] Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons, or - 2.29%. [2] - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points. [2] - In August 2025, the output of Chinese butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,500 tons, or + 5.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - Iron ore prices have reached a six-month high, indicating strong demand in the market [2][3] - The construction and real estate sectors show signs of recovery, with a notable increase in crude steel production [24][44] - The profitability of certain materials, such as titanium dioxide and flat glass, remains low, reflecting challenges in the real estate completion chain [78] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The London gold spot price has reached a historical high of $3685 per ounce, reflecting strong global liquidity [11] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises in early September increased by 7.19% month-on-month [24] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is at 90.35%, up by 0.17 percentage points [44] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, indicating robust demand in the industrial sector [2] - Major commodity prices show varied performance, with cold-rolled steel prices up by 8.99% and copper down by 1.34% [2] Sub-sectors - The price of iron ore is at 793 yuan per wet ton, reflecting a 0.6% increase week-on-week [10] - The price of graphite electrodes remains stable at 18,000 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease in comprehensive profit margins [10] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.44%, while the engineering machinery sector showed the best performance with a 6.10% increase [4] - The PB ratio of the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.52, indicating potential for recovery [4] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in August 2025 is at 47.20%, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. Under the influence of downstream bargain - hunting purchases, the negotiation focus on the spot side is continuously under pressure. Some industry players expect a certain reduction in the mainstream supply price. This week, both enterprise inventories and sample trading enterprise inventories have decreased slightly. Before the holiday, downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, and it is expected that buyers will gradually follow up, and the inventory level is expected to continue to decline. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased slightly this week. Most enterprises maintain their current production schedules to reserve inventory around the long holiday and make up for the previous order gap. The overall capacity utilization rate will mainly fluctuate slightly. The short - term price of the BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan; the position volume of the main contract is 74,503, an increase of 7,604; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,610 tons, a decrease of 360 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the basis of synthetic rubber is 235 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week production capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons/week, with no change; the current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons; the current - week capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points; the current - week production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons; the manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29%; as of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points; in August 2025, the output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]