产能重估
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国防军工行业全球化系列:全球两机产业链新观察,2026年迈入主业补库与产能重估的双奏
GF SECURITIES· 2026-03-17 13:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies within the domestic two-machine industry chain, highlighting opportunities for capacity reassessment [4]. Core Insights - The global supply chain is entering a dual phase of replenishment and capacity reassessment, driven by strong demand in civil aviation, high defense needs, and AI data center power shortages [4]. - The civil aviation sector is transitioning from supply chain adjustments to comprehensive replenishment, with Boeing's aircraft deliveries expected to reach 600 units in 2025, a 72% year-on-year increase [4]. - The gas turbine market is anticipated to experience a super cycle driven by AI and power grid upgrades, with global orders expected to reach a record 92GW in 2026 [4]. - Supply-side bottlenecks are evident, with key material shortages leading to extended delivery times and increased pricing power for upstream suppliers [4]. - Investment suggestions focus on domestic companies related to the two-machine industry chain, emphasizing the potential for capacity reassessment [4]. Summary by Sections Observation One: Acceleration of Overseas Aircraft Engine Replenishment - Boeing's aircraft deliveries are projected to exceed expectations, with a total of 600 aircraft delivered in 2025, recovering to 74% of 2018 levels [14]. - Airbus is expected to deliver 870 aircraft in 2026, reflecting a nearly 10% year-on-year growth [16]. - The recovery in civil aviation engine supply chains is expected to restart replenishment, with Rolls-Royce and Safran being key players [27]. Observation Two: Acceleration of Gas Turbine Capacity - Global orders for gas turbines are expected to reach a historical high of 92GW in 2026, surpassing the previous peak in 2001 [65]. - The demand for both AI-driven and traditional sectors is robust, indicating a strong market outlook for gas turbines [65]. Supply-Side Analysis - Current supply-demand imbalances are significant, with ongoing material shortages affecting production timelines and pricing strategies [4]. - The report highlights the increasing pricing power of upstream suppliers due to material shortages and the prioritization of maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) operations [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic companies involved in the two-machine industry chain, as they are likely to benefit from capacity reassessment opportunities [4].