中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 本周主要地区 经济数据公布日程 (1) 美国市场焦点 预计美联储年内将 连续降息三次 股票 "降息交易" 主线重新明确； Mobileye；Klaviyo ETF Invesco标普500等权重 房地产ETF (2) 欧洲市场焦点 俄乌和平之路 并不容易 按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年8月25日 每周投资策略 (3) 菲律宾市场焦点 二季度GDP超预期， 降息有望延续增长势头 股票 受益于区域资金流入 ETF iShares MSCI菲律宾 ETF 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 1 上周环球 股市表现 鲍威尔鸽派发言推动全球股市周五大幅拉升 | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价* | 1周变动 | 1个月变动 ...

证券研究报告：机械设备 | 公司点评报告 增持|维持 个股表现 -16% 1% 18% 35% 52% 69% 86% 103% 120% 137% 154% 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 应流股份 机械设备 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 29.01 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）6.79 / 6.79 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）197 / 197 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 29.01 / 9.57 | | 资产负债率(%) | 56.1% | | 市盈率 | 69.07 | | 第一大股东 | 霍山应流投资管理有限 | | 公司 | | 研究所 分析师:马强 SAC 登记编号:S1340523080002 Email:maqiang@cnpsec.com 应流股份(603308) 发布时间：2025-08-21 股票投资评级 Q2 单季度业绩同比增长 57%，两机业务订单充裕 ⚫ 事件 8 月 12 日，应流股份发布 2025 年半年报。2025H ...

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace and defense sector is experiencing notable growth, driven by increasing complexities in the international environment and the need for advanced military capabilities [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Major indices opened higher but showed mixed performance, with significant gains in digital currency and cross-border payment sectors [1] - The aerospace ETF (159227) rose by 0.08% with a trading volume of 1.07 billion yuan, maintaining its position as the leading ETF in the military sector [1] - Key stocks in the aerospace sector, such as Hitec High-New, surged to their daily limit, with other major players like AVIC Chengfei, AVIC Shenyang, AVIC Xi'an, and Aero Engine Corporation leading the gains [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Guotai Junan Securities emphasizes the necessity of advanced aircraft and missiles for modern warfare, alongside efficient and cost-effective equipment like rockets and a reliable communication command system [1] - The aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Index, which has a high military industry representation of 97.86%, focusing on the aerospace segment and covering a full range of industry leaders in fighter jets, transport aircraft, helicopters, engines, missiles, satellites, and radars [1] - From July 31, 2024, to July 31, 2025, the Guozheng Aerospace Index is projected to yield a return of 37.28%, outperforming other indices such as the CSI National Defense Index (33.06%), CSI Military Industry Index (30.4%), and Military Leaders Index (26.78%) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent contract between the U.S. and a Chilean mining company highlights the strategic importance of rhenium, a metal more scarce than gold, which is crucial for modern aviation engine technology and is seen as a strategic leverage against China's aviation industry [1][5]. Rhenium Supply and Demand - Rhenium, element 75 on the periodic table, is extremely rare in the Earth's crust, with only about 2,000 tons of proven reserves globally, significantly lower than the annual production of over 3,000 tons of gold. Chile holds over half of the global reserves (approximately 1,300 tons), while the U.S. has about 400 tons, and China only possesses around 237 tons, primarily in molybdenum mines in Shaanxi and Anhui [2]. - The unique physical properties of rhenium make it an ideal material for turbine blades in aircraft engines, which operate under extreme conditions. The F119 engine blades of the U.S. F-22 stealth fighter contain a high percentage of rhenium, and the CJ-1000A engine of China's C919 aircraft also relies on high-performance rhenium alloys. However, China faces a significant challenge as it relies on imports for 90% of its rhenium, leading to high costs and supply chain risks. The price of rhenium has surged to several thousand dollars per kilogram, exceeding gold prices, and has increased by 15% since 2023, resulting in over a 10% rise in the cost of Chinese aircraft engines [4][6]. U.S. Control Over Rhenium Supply - Although the U.S. does not have the largest rhenium reserves, it effectively controls the global supply chain by securing long-term contracts with major rhenium-producing countries like Chile and Kazakhstan. The U.S. imports 40 tons of rhenium annually, using 25 tons and storing 15 tons in strategic reserves, totaling 400 tons, which is significantly higher than its own reserves. The U.S. also maintains a technological edge in manufacturing turbine blades and imposes high prices and technology restrictions on Chinese companies, reinforcing its "rhenium hegemony." The upcoming Critical Minerals Security Act and the establishment of a "mineral alliance" with countries like Australia and Canada further enhance the U.S.'s resource control and political leverage [5]. Challenges and Responses in China's Aviation Industry - The shortage of rhenium poses severe challenges for China's aviation industry, hindering research and development progress and threatening production. For instance, a research center in Xi'an had to adjust the rhenium content in the CJ-1000A engine blades due to unstable supply, resulting in performance testing failures. If the U.S. fully restricts rhenium exports, China could face a significant rhenium shortfall, jeopardizing the mass production of the C919 aircraft and the domestic development of military engines [6]. - In response to these challenges, China is taking several measures: - Increasing domestic mining efforts, with the Anhui Zhanling rhenium mine already in operation, despite limited reserves. Geological exploration is ongoing to discover new rhenium resources [7]. - Developing recycling technologies to recover rhenium from discarded aircraft engine blades, achieving a high recovery rate, which helps alleviate supply pressure [7]. - Expanding partnerships with countries like Kazakhstan and exploring collaborations in Africa and Central Asia to diversify supply sources and mitigate risks [7]. - Researching alternative materials, such as new high-temperature alloys and improving processes to enhance rhenium usage efficiency [9]. - Leveraging China's advantages in rare earths, gallium, and germanium to negotiate favorable conditions in international discussions [9]. Conclusion - The U.S. aims to use rhenium to constrain China's aviation industry, but this may accelerate China's innovation in critical technologies. China is actively working on resource development, recycling, material substitution, and international cooperation, which will ultimately help overcome the "rhenium dilemma" and achieve greater autonomy in aviation engine production [11].

MTU Aero Engines AG (MTUAY) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This rating change essentially reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.The po ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a new agreement between Nvidia and AMD with the U.S. government, where both companies will pay 15% of their revenue from chip sales to China to the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses, raising concerns about the implications for international trade and U.S. companies [1][2][5]. Group 1: Agreement Details - Nvidia and AMD have agreed to allocate 15% of their revenue from chip sales to China to the U.S. government to obtain export licenses [1]. - If sales were calculated without restrictions, Nvidia could earn $23 billion in China by 2025, resulting in a $3.45 billion cost due to the 15% cut [2]. Group 2: Implications for U.S. Companies - The 15% cut is seen as a political risk premium rather than a reflection of market value or production costs, potentially leading to increased costs for U.S. companies [6]. - If this model is extended to other high-end industrial products, it could significantly raise costs for U.S. firms, making them less competitive against foreign companies [9]. Group 3: Potential Global Impact - The introduction of such a fee could lead to a breakdown of established international trade rules, as other countries might follow suit and impose similar fees on U.S. exports [10][12]. - The article warns that this could lead to a fragmented global trade system, where countries impose unpredictable fees, ultimately harming international cooperation and trade efficiency [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of re-evaluating the value of core assets at low levels, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to drive significant growth in the military industry [6][100] - The report highlights the potential for companies like AVIC Optoelectronics, AVIC Engine, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft to benefit from increasing demand and strategic expansions in their respective sectors [6][35][63] Summary by Sections AVIC Optoelectronics - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% in revenue and 26% in profit over the past 20 years, with a revenue of 20.686 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.04% [10][11] - AVIC Optoelectronics is expanding its product offerings from connectors to comprehensive interconnection solutions, enhancing its value proposition in the defense sector [17] - The company is also diversifying into civilian sectors, focusing on smart connected vehicles and communication systems, which are expected to drive future growth [18] AVIC Engine - The report notes that aviation engines are high-value consumables, with a significant long-term demand for maintenance and replacement driven by the existing fleet of military aircraft [40][50] - The potential market for military aviation engine aftermarket services is estimated to exceed 428.74 billion yuan over the next 20 years, with an average annual value of 21.44 billion yuan [50] - The report highlights the increasing share of maintenance services in the revenue of leading international engine manufacturers, indicating a similar trend may emerge in domestic companies [43][47] AVIC Xi'an Aircraft - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for large transport aircraft, with a focus on the Y-20 model, which is currently in high demand globally [97] - The new management team at AVIC Xi'an Aircraft is expected to enhance investor relations and improve communication with stakeholders, potentially leading to better market performance [72] - The lifting of the U.S. ban on the export of commercial aircraft engines to China is anticipated to accelerate the delivery schedule of domestically produced large aircraft [79] Overall Industry Outlook - The report suggests that the military industry is entering a phase of significant growth, driven by policy support, increased military spending, and technological advancements [100] - Companies are encouraged to focus on enhancing product capabilities, increasing market penetration, and improving average transaction values to capitalize on the expected growth [100]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the military trade equipment sector, particularly focusing on aircraft engines as high-value consumables, which are expected to see increased demand due to long-term maintenance and replacement needs [10][15]. - The potential for domestic aircraft, such as the C919, to penetrate Southeast Asian markets is emphasized, with countries like Malaysia and Pakistan showing interest in adopting these aircraft [38][41]. - The report discusses the strategic positioning of companies like Huayin Technology in stealth materials and the anticipated growth in the ceramic-based composite materials sector [84][86]. Summary by Sections Military Trade Equipment - Aircraft engines hold a primary position in military trade, with their export share decreasing from 3.6% (2014-2018) to 2.0% (2019-2023) [14]. - The demand for maintenance and replacement of aircraft engines is driven by the long service life of military aircraft, which often exceeds the lifespan of the engines themselves [15][18]. C919 Aircraft - The C919 is expected to gain traction in Southeast Asia, with significant interest from Malaysian and Pakistani airlines [41][47]. - The global demand for commercial aircraft remains robust, with Airbus and Boeing having backlogs that exceed their annual delivery rates, indicating a favorable market for the C919 [47][55]. - The C919's production capacity is projected to increase significantly, with plans to reach 200 aircraft per year by 2029 [54][76]. Stealth Materials - Stealth technology is becoming a standard feature in advanced military aircraft, significantly enhancing their operational capabilities [86]. - The report identifies Huayin Technology as a key player in the stealth materials market, focusing on the development of ceramic-based composites [84][86]. Maintenance and Aftermarket - The military aircraft engine aftermarket is projected to exceed 428.7 billion yuan over the next 20 years, with an average annual market value of 21.44 billion yuan [25][28]. - Companies involved in the maintenance and aftermarket services for aircraft engines are expected to see substantial revenue growth as the market expands [28][31]. Supply Chain and Domestic Production - The report outlines the potential for increased domestic production and supply chain development for the C919, with a focus on enhancing the localization rate of components [77][80]. - The growth of domestic suppliers is anticipated to benefit from the increasing demand for locally produced aircraft and components [80][82].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including Beike-W, China Resources Land, New China Life Insurance, Qilu Bank, Sungrow Power Supply, and others [54]. Core Insights - The report highlights the investment outlook for the financial and manufacturing industries, emphasizing the recovery of corporate earnings and the potential for stock price appreciation in the context of macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations [5][10][11]. Financial Sector Summary - The financial sector is expected to see a continuation of performance recovery in Q2, with a focus on high-elasticity stocks. The insurance sector is projected to benefit from improved new business value and investment returns [20][21]. - Qilu Bank is noted for its strong growth in credit market share and improving asset quality, with a projected net profit growth of 16.5% in the first half of 2025 [22][26]. Real Estate Sector Summary - The real estate sector is anticipated to experience a rebound due to policy easing and potential for price recovery. Key companies like Beike-W and China Resources Land are highlighted for their strong fundamentals and growth potential [11][12][19]. Manufacturing Sector Summary - The manufacturing sector, particularly in machinery and electrical new energy, is expected to benefit from global competitiveness and accelerated overseas expansion. Companies like Haitian International are positioned to gain from increased export demand [27][35]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new technologies and market trends in the electrical new energy sector, with a focus on storage and solar energy [27][29]. Environmental Sector Summary - The environmental sector, particularly waste incineration and water services, is highlighted for its long-term investment value, with companies like Hanlan Environment and Beijing Water Group recommended for their stable cash flow and growth potential [46][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the aerospace and defense sector, including 航发动力, 图南股份, 华秦科技, 航亚科技, 航材股份, and 应流股份 [10]. Core Insights - The aerospace engine market is expected to experience significant growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, leading to a substantial aftermarket potential exceeding 400 billion yuan over the next 20 years, driven by the high-value consumable nature of military engines [2][6][7]. - The maintenance market for military aerospace engines is projected to account for over 50% of the total lifecycle cost, indicating a strong demand for repair and maintenance services [6][25]. - The report highlights that the aftermarket for aerospace engines is approximately four times larger than the new engine market, with a significant portion of costs attributed to materials and maintenance [7][60]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The military aerospace engine's consumable nature necessitates multiple repairs throughout its lifecycle, with the lifespan of military aircraft often exceeding that of their engines [17][19]. - The report emphasizes the increasing frequency of engine replacements due to operational demands and technological advancements [21]. Aftermarket Potential - The future aftermarket space for military aerospace engines is estimated at approximately 428.74 billion yuan over the next 20 years, with an average annual market value of 21.44 billion yuan [7][57]. - The breakdown of the aftermarket includes approximately 5% for spare engines, 22% for engine repairs, and 51% for spare parts [60]. Industry Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand for maintenance and repair services will enhance the revenue and profitability of engine manufacturers, particularly as domestic production rates increase [8][14]. - The control systems segment of aerospace engines is expected to benefit significantly from the expansion of the maintenance and replacement market [8][16]. Company Performance - The report notes that key companies like 航发动力 have shown robust revenue growth in their aerospace engine and derivative product segments, with projected growth rates of 19% to 22% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [39][40].